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M1 Countertrend Scalping Strategy

  • #8,621
  • Jul 27, 2023 4:03am Jul 27, 2023 4:03am
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I haven't come this far to only come this far !
  • #8,622
  • Jul 27, 2023 4:44am Jul 27, 2023 4:44am
I read all the things you write and started the demo trades. Thank you all. Especially Cpfleger
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  • #8,623
  • Jul 27, 2023 5:07am Jul 27, 2023 5:07am
200 Pips.....
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  • #8,624
  • Jul 27, 2023 5:08am Jul 27, 2023 5:08am
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I haven't come this far to only come this far !
  • #8,625
  • Jul 27, 2023 5:17am Jul 27, 2023 5:17am
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I haven't come this far to only come this far !
  • #8,626
  • Jul 27, 2023 5:18am Jul 27, 2023 5:18am
Over 40 Pips on EURUSD.........
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  • #8,627
  • Jul 27, 2023 5:23am Jul 27, 2023 5:23am
Buying eurusd now...........
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  • #8,628
  • Jul 27, 2023 6:23am Jul 27, 2023 6:23am
Greatings CPfleger,
First thanks a lot for all the inspirations you gave us junior traders. however, looking at EURUSD and XAUUSD at this time, what's your risk management strategy when you're 53 pips in drawdown?
  • #8,629
  • Jul 27, 2023 6:56am Jul 27, 2023 6:56am
P73,
Have you actually read this entire Forum ? Watched any KoF YouTube Video's like the one on page 1 within this Forum ?
cpfleger
  • #8,630
  • Jul 27, 2023 7:06am Jul 27, 2023 7:06am
P73,
Just in case you have watched Tough Trades KoF YouTube, you will know stop losses are for loosers....
This Strategy as stated in the first paragraph on page 1 by the originator Abade, a High Risk Strategy.
Please read.
cpfleger
  • #8,631
  • Jul 27, 2023 7:21am Jul 27, 2023 7:21am
Quoting P73
Greatings CPfleger, First thanks a lot for all the inspirations you gave us junior traders. however, looking at EURUSD and XAUUSD at this time, what's your risk management strategy when you're 53 pips in drawdown?
Allow me to answer you.
The drawdown in this case is simply unacceptable. Do yourself a favour and learn a strategy where money management and risk to reward are the key elements of success.
No professional trader will ever tolerate these kinds of drawdowns when standard and even higher lot sizes are used.
Sadly, too many new and even more experienced traders get drawn into swamps like these.
Success in trading consists of many elements. A runaway market with a string of open negative trades behind you is a sure recipe for disaster.
If you ever dream of trading with investors' money, then you need to know that this style will destroy your dreams of doing so.
Trading towards moving averages or median lines is a proven strategy.
Leaving trades open in the hope that the market will bail you out all the time is a fallacy.
Good luck.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #8,632
  • Jul 27, 2023 7:44am Jul 27, 2023 7:44am
Quoting P73
Greatings CPfleger, First thanks a lot for all the inspirations you gave us junior traders. however, looking at EURUSD and XAUUSD at this time, what's your risk management strategy when you're 53 pips in drawdown?
I'd use a 30% hard stop-loss. These kind of events will happen due to news or black swans (e.g. Covid). Use an EA that will keep track of the floating loss of all your orders and take you out at -30% equity.

You could also use a hedge but that you'd need to deal with unwinding the hedge and that introduces another headache.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
  • #8,633
  • Jul 27, 2023 8:45am Jul 27, 2023 8:45am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} Allow me to answer you. The drawdown in this case is simply unacceptable. Do yourself a favour and learn a strategy where money management and risk to reward are the key elements of success. No professional trader will ever tolerate these kinds of drawdowns when standard and even higher lot sizes are used. Sadly, too many new and even more experienced traders get drawn into swamps like these. Success in trading consists of many elements. A runaway market with a string of open negative trades behind you is a sure recipe for disaster. If you...
My friend, please share some of your trades with us.

BTW EURUSD move is not done yet, let's see how it develops and discuss it, that's the main purpose of the thread.
  • #8,634
  • Jul 27, 2023 8:53am Jul 27, 2023 8:53am
Thank you Cliffjadded and Cobra.
Please forgive me as I didn’t express myself clearly enough, Allow me to explain;
On the post #8627 Cpfleger bought Eurusd as clearly shown on the image attached. The price never came back to ema’s and slumped down and never looked back up again. I read the thread from post 1 and watched all the KoF videos so I know what it is all about. My question to Cpfleger is what did you actually do with the two long positions?
thanks for enlightening us.
  • #8,635
  • Edited 11:11am Jul 27, 2023 10:48am | Edited 11:11am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} But NEVER, EVER add to loser's martingale style. Pre plan how you will apply your lot size before the trade. Do not use the maximum lot size according to your risk model on your first entry.
This is exactly what is espoused here in this forum thread. There's no martingaling going on here. You come in here like there isn't a dozen or more traders with hundreds of trades displayed over several years showing profits in this system. No statistical edge? This thread is logging and displaying that to be false. If it's not for you that's cool. It's high risk. That is the very first thing stated on page one. 30% equity hard stop for black swan events is risky. IT'S RISKY! May not be for everyone. But it's working for many of us. I have a 97% win rate with this. It would be 100% if I didn't fat finger some early exits near the beginning of starting this. What's yours? Show us some merit to your words.
r
There are many institutional traders I've seen in interviews saying to not use stop losses. Especially in forex since price is a ratio comparing two currencies and not full out evaluation of a single asset like stocks. They say if you aren't confident enough in you trade theory then don't take it. Stop losses can be a death of a thousand cuts. Can be, not always is. Only Sith deal in absolutes

Anyway, if you don't want to discuss in a forum, what are you doing here then?
  • #8,636
  • Edited 11:36am Jul 27, 2023 11:25am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting Cobra
{quote} Did i say traders are doing Martingale here? Do you know how many prop firms are there nowadays helping traders with funded accounts? Not one single one of them will ever allow one of their traders to trade without a visible stop which complies with their risk model or to a risk model acceptable to them. It is part of their rules and stated in their contracts. That alone debunks your argument about stop losses completely. Ask any funded trader how strict these prop firms are with managing risk. What am i doing here? I am hoping to sow a...

Please drop the condescension. How are we to know you don't mean this strategy when you say what I quoted you as saying? How was one to know you weren't meaning this strategy when you mentioned martingaling? Why are you lecturing anyway? Why are you ad hominem attacking me and not the subject? Why do I not deserve help (that I didn't ask for anyway, I'm just logging my journey and attempt at this system)? This is your form of encouragement? Your list of advice and whatnot appears to be a giant spoon aimed at our mouths. Guys like me. Please, go one. What are guys like me exactly? What have I spoiled exactly? I'm not going in other threads and poo pooing their discussion of a system.
  • #8,637
  • Jul 27, 2023 11:34am Jul 27, 2023 11:34am
With that said, in an attempt to get this thread back on track...

Have some updates on trades.

The AUDUSD trades from yesterday came around at 6:16am my time for a total of 82.7 pips:
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And the EURUSD trades from the 11th finally came around shortly after at 6:33am my time for a total of 392.6 pips!!! That's my largest yet (took too long though but still):
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At the end of today after I'm done with my allotted trading time (4pm to 8pm AZ time) or tomorrow I'll post an account report. So far I've made 22.5% in almost 3 months. Much better than any other system I've tried over the last 6 years! Just need to hone my entry patience.
  • #8,638
  • Edited 12:46pm Jul 27, 2023 12:10pm | Edited 12:46pm
To be fair guys, adding to a trade is a form of Martingale except it's called Additive Martingale instead of Multiplier Martingale. It can still be considered a form of Multiplier Martingale with a multiplier of 1.0. But i'm getting semantic here. Generally, we understand Martingale to be a form of doubling up or multiplier of the original trade, whether or not the original trade was stopped out. Usually, when we mean averaging down, we mean uniformly adding to a trade, though you can certain increase the size of your averages. Anyways, that's not the main issue here lol.

If you've dealt with any somewhat successful EA that applies averaging or multipliers with a fixed equity stop, you should arrive at this equity curve; Slow progress up, then steep drawdown. The challenge here is the increase and sustain those periods of slow crawl up while minimising those steep drawdowns.

If you're doing 0.01 lots for every $1000 balance, you could consider something like -10% to - 20% equity stop if you're able to mint profits before that. So for example, you go 2 weeks stacking 30% profit. On the 3rd week you hit a 20% equity stop. Sucks. But you overall up 10%. I think this is a healthy way to approach this rather than average till death.

An equity stop also allows you to place a global SL and global TP, and perhaps even limit orders (for additional averages) and walk away from your terminal. Instead of stressing out over how to manage the trade. Sometimes the trade goes out of hand, and you can't be there averaging your ass off because you know, the daily demands of life. So an equity stop, both in the form of a global SL and TP, can help mellow out the psychology aspect of this system.

Just some musings of mine after working with this system thus far. I don't want newbies wading in this thread, experience success for 2 weeks and then get their accounts razed into the ground.

If we truly want to test how robust a system is, we need to account for the worst case scenarios. Saying the solution is money management is not enough. What exactly is that money management? If the solution is absolutely no stop at all, then the assumption here is that your ultimate stop is your Margin Call. And that is absolutely fine if that's what you're willing to risk. But the juice better be worth that squeeze - double that account quick, draw out your principal, and continue.
Leave the Gun, Take the Armani
  • #8,639
  • Jul 27, 2023 12:44pm Jul 27, 2023 12:44pm
Quoting Cobra
{quote} Thank you. I humbly decline your offer as i have no desire anymore to take part in forum discussions. The string of open trades which so often are discussed here is what made me to comment. It has no statistical edge and will not suffice as a method or strategy to grow an account. It only takes one "Black Swan" event to wipe one's account and to set you back psychologically. Self-hurt is detrimental to your trading career. The KOF method has merit in the sense that price always return to the median. The way it is presented here however does...
That's a shame, I hoped you could at least show us a few examples, backtests or some kind of report to reinforce your position on the matter. If you change your mind you are still welcome to do so. I only ask to not do any personal attacks or remarks here, I'd like to keep the discussion focused on trading ideas and performance, not traders or personalities, that's quite irrelevant in my opinion.

I agree with some of your points, but others need clarification, so I'm listing those:

- We don't endorse the use of "martingale" which implies doubling the lot sizes after each consecutive loss. The strategy uses a loose form of "cost averaging", which is a whole different concept by itself and should be differentiated.
- Nobody here is implying that the "statistical edge" comes from cost averaging (money management), that is just plain wrong. In this case the statistical edge comes from the mean reversion principle which is the base of this and many other strategies.
- Nobody here assumes that price HAS TO "bail" the trader and return to the starting point. The real assumption is that a strong impulse is USUALLY followed by a strong reversion to the mean.
- When this reversion doesn't happen a big loss may occur as stated in post #1 and many others along the way. You should always have a max equity stop loss, even when trading with fixed risk to reward scheme, this is not different.

Quoting barsa1211
Hello, I am new to the topic. I started playing with this strategy two days ago. I made myself a $1000 demo account and started testing. I actually made a $56.70 profit in the first two days. We'll see what happens next. I am most afraid of trends. Regards {image}
Well done! Feel free to post your trading setups.

Don't try to trade news directly, it's better to wait for the full reaction and then wait for a strong retracement (50 EMA or deeper) before pulling the trigger, this will save you from a lot of these strong trends.
  • #8,640
  • Jul 27, 2023 1:08pm Jul 27, 2023 1:08pm
Hello, I am new to the topic. I started playing with this strategy two days ago. I made myself a $1000 demo account and started testing.
I actually made a $56.70 profit in the first two days. We'll see what happens next. I am most afraid of trends. I also try not to open many positions and I play 0.10 lot on EURUSD M1.
I have also attached the screen.
Regards
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