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15 minute opening range Forex

  • #221
  • Edited 3:20am Jul 21, 2023 12:29am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting 27yokid
{quote} Hi, Thanks for sharing this strategy. I have my own trading strategy that works but i will backtest Yours as well today. Once i backtest at least 100 transaction in some pairs i will share my results with you. I will stick to 1:2RR. But i have question. Do not get me wrong but i am asking this out of curiosity. Can you please share your track record as well.
I posted the past 2 months in of the pages. By end of july ill post my results again. I normally post an end of the day recap on stuff i like. Euro, gold, or sometimes i don't.

Past 2 months been ok. Just a few trades.

Ill share 100 trades in a bit 1 moment. Eating popcorn

July 21

1.London open no trade
2. Sydney close 2r
3. Tokyo open 2r
4. Sydney open -1

July 20

5. London close no trade
6. Ny open no trade
7. Tokyo close no trade.
8. London open 2r
9. Sydney close 2r
10. Tokyo open no trade
11. Sydney open 2r

July 19

Will edit 1 moment
12. london close 2r
13. Ny open 2r
14 tokyo close 2r
15. London open no trade
16. Sydney close no trade
17. Tokyo open 2r
18. Sydney open no trade

July 18

19. London close 2 r
20. Ny open 2r
21. Tokyo close 2r
22 london open 2r
23 sydney close 2r
24. Tokyo open no trade
25. Sydney open -1

Will update the next 25 trades later.

July 17 same format as above

26 no trade
27 -1
28 -1
29 -1
30 2r
31 -1
32 no trade

July 14

33 no
34 -1
35 no trade
36 2r
37 no
38 2r
39 no

July 13

40 -1
41 +2
42 no
43 +2
44 no
45 -1
46 +2

July 12

47 no
48 no
49 no
50 -1
51 2r
52 no
53 no

July 11

54 no
55 +2
56 no
57 -1
58 +2
59 -1
60. No

July 10

61 no
62 no
63 +2
64 -1
65 no
66 +2
67 no

July 8/7

68 no
69 no
70 2r
71 -1
72 no
73 2r
74 no

July 6

75 -1
76 no
77 no
78 +2
79 no
80 no
81 no

July 5

82 -1
83 no
84 2r
85 2r
86 2r
87 no
88 2r

July 4

89 0
90 -1
91 +2
92 0
93 0
94 -1
95 no

July 3

96 -1
97 +2
98 no
99 no
100 no.

Nos 45%
-1 19%
+2 34%

68% past 100 trades -19% or 48% profit.

Inserted Video


Tokyo close setup. Went for a short cause tokyo box entry, but it closed on me. So i did a reverse since it was tokyo close. Just got a bit of scalp and closed.

I thought I'd be hedging it, but it didn't trigger.

Xau usd
tokyo close 5pm +8 gmt

1st 15m range
2nd pierced and closed near south
Entry .3 to 1.8 long

Nice 1 to 5 r

https://www.tradingview.com/x/257O87Ke

Feel free to dm me for voice over discord. Price is simply 15 mins of attention.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #222
  • Jul 21, 2023 5:56am Jul 21, 2023 5:56am
Quoting Sovy
{quote} There is actually a flip a coin experiment. And if coupled with good risk mgt, you will make money.
I said that because the rules you've described so far seem very arbitrary/random to me. Tossing a coin, probably wouldn't make much of a difference. So I'm wondering what the advantage of your system is. You wrote about the importance of consistency but haven't shown much consistency yet.

The rules about the entry, risk management and profit target changed several times since the opening of your topic. So you shouldn't be surprised that people might be very confused and not be able to follow you

On top of that you wrote about trading multiple forex pairs or even other markets like metals, Gold over a variety of different opening and closing times which also makes it difficult to follow and you could possibly discuss comparable results. You say part of your edge is trading a market where there is volume but posted charts trading EUR/USD at the close of the Tokyo session. You should know that there isn't much volume trading a forex pair like EUR/USD at the close of the Tokyo session where most people trading this pair are sleeping. People trade EUR/USD during the European or New York market session.

On top of that you wrote about "multiple entries per setup/market/open/close" making following the risk management part even harder and hence why i asked again how you then split your risk here, not really knowing how many orders you will execute per day, trading so many different stuff at different times.

I hope you understand this.

Quoting Sovy
Yes you can have 1 trade at a time with at most 5% or 100 trades at a time with a total 5% max risk.
Okay. So I understand that 5% is your maximum daily risk and NOT the risk per order/stop loss. Better update that in your introduction post, to avoid even more confusion with traders that might be similar to me and looking for something CLEAR and objective.

Quoting Sovy
Hell, you can do whatever you want. Believe what you want.
I always do. The same goes for you

Quoting Sovy
stand by the open, close, and news as drivers of volume. If you only want to trade the close because of that article, that is fine.
No. I only mentioned this because it contradicts what you say that institutions would mostly trade during opening hours. The article says something different and is from a reputable source.

As I understand your strategy, it makes no difference at all whether you have a lot or a little volume. A lot of volume would speak for it if you want to trade a breakout where you want to see a move in price in one direction with a lot of follow through but you trade the reversal. Maybe i am wrong.

Quoting Sovy
To further refine it is art in part of your own knowledge of break and retests based on market structure and htf trends. It is a once a day only trade and only at this time.
I actually don't want to refine anything. Market Structure, breaks, retests? Not what i care about. Same with "bias". I don't want to develop a "bias" in direction or what ever. I want to follow the rules as the systems states to be profitable and execute the rules. That's all i am interested in.

I say that I liked your strategy at first because it showed very clear rules, but now you've changed something so often and keep writing something else that I don't know what to do anymore. That's why I also wrote that I don't believe you that you have intensively tested your setup. How could you have tested this with so many constantly changing rules and seemingly a lot of discretion involved at the end.

I wish you a beautiful weekend. When are you going to the pool again?
  • #223
  • Jul 21, 2023 6:15am Jul 21, 2023 6:15am
If pool probably tomorrow because weekend. It was a nice profitable week.

The rules are still the same.

:3 its probably just not something for you.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #224
  • Edited 9:19pm Jul 21, 2023 6:41am | Edited 9:19pm
cable
ny time

15 m range
2nd breaches low
3rd entry .3 stop loss hit
2nd entry .3 hits 1.8

-1, 5r. Not bad.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0PXKmXch

Good night. Good luck

Euro summary

Sydney open
-1
Tokyo open
0
Sydney close
3r

London open
0

Tokyo close
-1

Ny open
-1, 5r

5r today euro

The beauty of opening ranges and closing is it allows you to have a starting point, in addition to your model to trade.

Here is an example or euro usd for news trade

Friday for +8gmt

830 and 10pm

Meaning

830 may be the opening range beginning and 845 is the range end for the first bar

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lritvudg

10 pm meaning 1015 is the first range

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RgkUnNcx

While not really 1 to 5, atleast 1 to 4 potentially for the 10pm news

note. Euro pair at this time is usd dominated because ny time. So if your pair is not usd dominant, if you want to trade it along the news of that time, check forex factory for that pair's news time delivery.

Let's give a london news example

https://www.tradingview.com/x/pKeixVJ7

4pm came Thursday's news

And 2pm

Didnt push thru a good trade so this one was a loss

https://www.tradingview.com/x/6IoAHDUV

It later reversed to the 1.8 but thats a second trade.

Still that's the principle. When news comes. So does the volume

I don't trade the news but the reversal if it allows.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #225
  • Jul 22, 2023 12:29pm Jul 22, 2023 12:29pm
Quoting Sovy
If pool probably tomorrow because weekend. It was a nice profitable week. The rules are still the same. :3 its probably just not something for you.
Well, the rules changed a few times. First the entry was only on the 3rd candle, then up to the 4th, then even the first 3 hours? Regarding to the SL/TP, it also changed s few times where you wrote something different. Then suddenly there are several entries per setup. You write "2nd entry" etc. Anyway. It's way too confusing and unclear to follow you like this. I'm out but I wish you success!
  • #226
  • Jul 22, 2023 12:36pm Jul 22, 2023 12:36pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, the rules changed a few times. First the entry was only on the 3rd candle, then up to the 4th, then even the first 3 hours? Regarding to the SL/TP, it also changed s few times where you wrote something different. Then suddenly there are several entries per setup. You write "2nd entry" etc. Anyway. It's way too confusing and unclear to follow you like this. I'm out but I wish you success!
Iddd, What is it you are looking for. There is no system, no signals, no courses etc that will ever give you 100% setups, entries, signals ever. Get on zoom with me if you have time. PS, i sell nothing and ask for nothing. Maybe you dont believe me, you could put a post in the Cable thread asking if i am a scammer. Who knows someone might reply
  • #227
  • Jul 22, 2023 6:59pm Jul 22, 2023 6:59pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Well, the rules changed a few times. First the entry was only on the 3rd candle, then up to the 4th, then even the first 3 hours? Regarding to the SL/TP, it also changed s few times where you wrote something different. Then suddenly there are several entries per setup. You write "2nd entry" etc. Anyway. It's way too confusing and unclear to follow you like this. I'm out but I wish you success!
Well it is my method. I can do as i please provided i see it is an improvement to my method.

It's fine if you dont follow it.

Quoting T721
{quote} Iddd, What is it you are looking for. There is no system, no signals, no courses etc that will ever give you 100% setups, entries, signals ever. Get on zoom with me if you have time. PS, i sell nothing and ask for nothing. Maybe you dont believe me, you could put a post in the Cable thread asking if i am a scammer. Who knows someone might reply
This guy is correct.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #228
  • Jul 24, 2023 7:20am Jul 24, 2023 7:20am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/QYA7AyQD

Euro +8 gmt

Sydney close

2 pm to 2 15 is the 15 m range
Next 15 m breaches south
Next 15m rises to the moon.

Entry fib at first bar .3 exit 1.8 target long.

Good trade today
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #229
  • Jul 25, 2023 7:02am Jul 25, 2023 7:02am
Only london and ny open had entries and 1 to 5r. Nice 10r today.

Rules

1. 15m range
2. 2nd 15m breaches the high or low of the range
3. Fib measure direction opposing the breach
4. Entry .3 exit 1.8

Good ones today.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #230
  • Jul 28, 2023 6:17am Jul 28, 2023 6:17am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ufZ2ZcJ7

Euro +8gmt ny open.

15m range
2nd 15m breached the low
3rd bar went up pierced the .3 entry and we exit the 1.8

5r
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #231
  • Jul 28, 2023 6:24am Jul 28, 2023 6:24am
following
  • #232
  • Jul 31, 2023 8:26am Jul 31, 2023 8:26am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ua6vyPEw

Euro usd
Usd news 945.

945 is the 15 min range
100 is break above range
Direction is south
Enter .3 exit .9. Very nice 1 to 2r
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #233
  • Jul 31, 2023 11:18am Jul 31, 2023 11:18am
Quoting Sovy
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Ua6vyPEw Euro usd Usd news 945. 945 is the 15 min range 100 is break above range Direction is south Enter .3 exit .9. Very nice 1 to 2r
What is the reason for the different Risk to Reward ratios on your trades? You’re using a trailing stop on your entries?

I was backtesting a few more forex pairs but 1:1 or even 1:2 didn’t show a profitable result for any of the pairs tested, not even on a yearly base.

I tested EUR/USD again too and it isn’t profitable.

Do you have results for one forex pair for say 12 Or even 24 months. Could you post them? I would like to compare results.

You are obviously filtering out on trades to be profitable or maybe because of diversification and trading multiple pairs and setups per day, doing multiple entries per setup or similar.
  • #234
  • Jul 31, 2023 3:27pm Jul 31, 2023 3:27pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} What is the reason for the different Risk to Reward ratios on your trades? You’re using a trailing stop on your entries? I was backtesting a few more forex pairs but 1:1 or even 1:2 didn’t show a profitable result for any of the pairs tested, not even on a yearly base. I tested EUR/USD again too and it isn’t profitable. Do you have results for one forex pair for say 12 Or even 24 months. Could you post them? I would like to compare results. You are obviously filtering out on trades to be profitable or maybe because of diversification and...
Ok. Once I'm done travelling will do.

Most of my trades irl i do as counter to news. So news is a heavy factor. And i when i get a good result for the day; i don't trade the rest of the day, just observe.

My filter is simply

1. 15m range
2. 2nd 15 closes above or below the range
3. 3rd bar goes to the opposing direction of the breakout.
4. If 3rd bar does not hit the .3/.5 then there is no trade.

From point 4 it is simply a matter of subjective entry since price within 3 hours after the open may follow the setup.

Currently i am travelling and on the road, but will post when I am able.
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #235
  • Edited 10:59am Aug 4, 2023 12:13am | Edited 10:59am
Sydney open, to london close, 7 opportunities for each day.
15m range 2nd bar breaks high or low, entry is on return of 3rd bar reversing from the breakout to the .2 exits at .6 for a 2rr.

Xauusd


Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
1. 1
2. 0
3. 1
4. 1
5. 1
6. 0
7. 1
1. 0
2. 0
3. 1
4. 1
5. 0
6. 0
7. 0
1. 0
2. 0
3. -1
4. 0
5. 0
6. +1

8 x2 16r -1 15 r not bad
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #236
  • Aug 7, 2023 6:25am Aug 7, 2023 6:25am
Quoting Sovy
Most of my trades irl i do as counter to news. So news is a heavy factor.
Okay. I assumed that your system is focused on the Open. News, idk. As already said your "system" feels unclear to me. It's not even exactly clear WHAT is being traded and on what exact criteria. First you talked about various instruments opens and closes, now there is news. The entry/exit criteria also raises questions.

I somehow hoped that someone who published a "system" here would finally post an associated backtest instead of posting this whole wishy-washy chery picked post of trades based on criteria that everyone can see differently.

If I had something to say here, like 99% of the others in this section, I would move this thread to the Trading Journal section or to the Beginners section, but oh well.

Anyway hope you're doing well and you're still having success.
  • #237
  • Aug 7, 2023 8:21am Aug 7, 2023 8:21am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Okay. I assumed that your system is focused on the Open. News, idk. As already said your "system" feels unclear to me. It's not even exactly clear WHAT is being traded and on what exact criteria. First you talked about various instruments opens and closes, now there is news. The entry/exit criteria also raises questions. I somehow hoped that someone who published a "system" here would finally post an associated backtest instead of posting this whole wishy-washy chery picked post of trades based on criteria that everyone can see differently....
:3

Trading is part art and science. May you find a mechanical method as i like my method that is part art and try and err.

This works for me and clearly it does not for you.
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Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
  • #238
  • Aug 7, 2023 10:54pm Aug 7, 2023 10:54pm
XAUUSD - Sydney Open 3.3

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  • #239
  • Aug 7, 2023 10:58pm Aug 7, 2023 10:58pm
XAUUSD - Tokyo Open 3.3

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  • #240
  • Aug 12, 2023 12:34am Aug 12, 2023 12:34am
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KRhMOPUY

8+ gmt london close

15 m range

Price breached high

Fib to the south. If your fib has negatives, you can use it to estimate a higher rr entry, just note to atleast pass 2 .1 standard diviations from highest point.

Normal entry at .3 and exit at 1.8 for a 1 to 5rr.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/vNsZE9uC

Sample if price really pushed down but you take advantage of the negative levels
Trading is gambling. So gamble responsibly.
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