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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,801
  • May 23, 2007 6:44pm May 23, 2007 6:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
As we say in Brazil, "an empty mind is the devil's office". 163.99, 164.00, 164.01, who the hell cares?

I got IBFX 164.00 and GFT 164.01, should I then file suit against IBFX for "ripping me off"???....

That's why during choppy markets I go graba nap, shopping whatever. If I stay in front of the computer, breakouts in the M5 appears, impossible trendlines pop up, fbonaccis with the low of Jan/1982 starts worring me

Hah, I completely agree with you and even said so, I believe. The paragraph you posted earlier, however, read like the price had smashed through the 164.00 barrier and beyond when, really, that barrier held just as firm yet again. Even if the 164.01 was the correct one, I'm hardly about to call a 1 pip breach a true break out of that resistance. To me it looks like that resistance has held strong yet again. Do you disagree?
  • #4,802
  • May 23, 2007 8:10pm May 23, 2007 8:10pm
Quoting nathbear
Hah, I completely agree with you and even said so, I believe. The paragraph you posted earlier, however, read like the price had smashed through the 164.00 barrier and beyond when, really, that barrier held just as firm yet again. Even if the 164.01 was the correct one, I'm hardly about to call a 1 pip breach a true break out of that resistance. To me it looks like that resistance has held strong yet again. Do you disagree?
Well, the same happened for GY with the 239.60 barrier, it held for a few boring weeks but then it broke. Saying that it will fall its an obvious fact, because it will make some retracements, as until now GY didnt make any serious retracement on the daily. I also expect to see some profit taking by the big guys soon, but until then, better buy dips than trying to hunt tops. Basic idea - follow the market, dont outsmart it. I know there is also the psychological level around here somewhere, it can be 245 or 250, so until there we still have a long way to go.

What still worries me is that EU is ranging and thats why EY didnt manage to break 164, so it depends on what will euro do from now, I hope it will go up following GU.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,803
  • May 23, 2007 8:19pm May 23, 2007 8:19pm
Quoting gagiul
Well, the same happened for GY with the 239.60 barrier, it held for a few boring weeks but then it broke. Saying that it will fall its an obvious fact, because it will make some retracements, as until now GY didnt make any serious retracement on the daily. I also expect to see some profit taking by the big guys soon, but until then, better buy dips than trying to hunt tops. Basic idea - follow the market, dont outsmart it. I know there is also the psychological level around here somewhere, it can be 245 or 250, so until there we still have a long way to go.

What still worries me is that EU is ranging and thats why EY didnt manage to break 164, so it depends on what will euro do from now, I hope it will go up following GU.
Enjoy reading your message, what EUR or USD news release do you think will play most important impact?
  • #4,804
  • May 23, 2007 10:35pm May 23, 2007 10:35pm
DJ MARKET TALK: Strong GBP/JPY Offers At 242, EUR/JPY 164 -Dealer

Thu May 24 01:17:53 2007
EDT

0517 GMT [Dow Jones] Strong GBP/JPY profit-taking sell orders lie below
242.00 while EUR/JPY barrier option-related sell orders placed below 164.00,
and these levels may cap crosses in near term, says Singapore dealer. GBP/JPY last at 241.52, EUR/JPY at 163.58.
Tra-X
  • #4,805
  • May 23, 2007 10:47pm May 23, 2007 10:47pm
Quoting Traex
DJ MARKET TALK: Strong GBP/JPY Offers At 242, EUR/JPY 164 -Dealer
are you saying gj is ready to take a dive.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,806
  • May 23, 2007 10:52pm May 23, 2007 10:52pm
Quoting bravado
are you saying gj is ready to take a dive.
Strong resistance at 242 and 164. So let them stuck below there for awhile, then maybe a fake push upwards thru the offers then a dive? More opinions are needed.
Tra-X
  • #4,807
  • May 23, 2007 10:53pm May 23, 2007 10:53pm
Quoting Traex
Strong resistance at 242 and 164. So let them stuck below there for awhile, then maybe a fake push upwards thru the offers then a dive? More opinions are needed.
noted.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #4,808
  • May 24, 2007 1:07am May 24, 2007 1:07am
Is the GBP/JPY taking a dive? I have just gone short on 241.06. Lets watch and see what happens.
Eyes For Pips!
  • #4,809
  • May 24, 2007 1:16am May 24, 2007 1:16am
Quoting Ecogates
Is the GBP/JPY taking a dive? I have just gone short on 241.06. Lets watch and see what happens.
Greenspan ran his stinking mouth on "likely chinese stocks contraction" and that's what we have....
  • #4,810
  • May 24, 2007 1:59am May 24, 2007 1:59am
Well, market in nervous tone now, ticking exactly as the European stocks. no "selloff" mark on it, but trading well below water.

I have no idea what is it going to be, but as the tumble Mr. Greenspan is dreaming of is not now, I'm buying GJ at round levels. Just did it 241.06.

Now define irony:

- Paulson invites his Chinese friends over the USA
- Paulson gets on his knees begging, among other things, for China to let Yuan float "a lil bit more"
- Pauson didn't even ask what the Congress want him to (the 40% valuation)
- China says, ok, we will widen the band from 0.3% to 0.5% (note, with 0.3% central bank used to act at 0.15% )
- Chinese got back to Beijin
- Paulson looks like a moron now
- Greenspan pops up, runs his "I think it will", and Shanghai tumbles...

This is the world we live in...
  • #4,811
  • May 24, 2007 2:19am May 24, 2007 2:19am
Hm, strange situation now. Eur didnt make it above 1.3500, and Eur Jpy got hammered really bad. I think the current levels of UY and GY are important for the future movements. While cable is holding pretty well, if UY will also hold above 120.00/120.20, and GY above 240.70, this would only be a retracement before another leg up for GY. Just my opinion though....
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,812
  • May 24, 2007 2:28am May 24, 2007 2:28am
Quoting gagiul
Hm, strange situation now. Eur didnt make it above 1.3500, and Eur Jpy got hammered really bad. I think the current levels of UY and GY are important for the future movements. While cable is holding pretty well, if UY will also hold above 120.00/120.20, and GY above 240.70, this would only be a retracement before another leg up for GY. Just my opinion though....
Mine, too. Feet at -15ºC here, though
  • #4,813
  • May 24, 2007 2:44am May 24, 2007 2:44am
It's an interesting one... Yen crosses dropping while the dollar appreciates against the pound is one of the signs of a carry unwind, but there's no stock sell off to put a nail in the coffin yet.

I'm not touching anything until the US news comes out in a few hours I think. Could be an interesting night tonight!
  • #4,814
  • May 24, 2007 2:52am May 24, 2007 2:52am
Quoting cesarnc
Mine, too. Feet at -15ºC here, though
well, im honoured to have the same opinion like you, man Be careful not to get a cold, coz we need u.

UY just made a deep through the 100 ema, currently at Daily FIB S2...Im scratching my head whether to buy at this level or wait for further down move to 120...I dont think it will go further down, it seems pretty bottomish here, for both GY and UY, while GU is lying very still...I think Im gonna go ahead and try a buy for both...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,815
  • May 24, 2007 2:57am May 24, 2007 2:57am
Quoting gagiul
well, im honoured to have the same opinion like you, man Be careful not to get a cold, coz we need u.

UY just made a deep through the 100 ema, currently at Daily FIB S2...Im scratching my head whether to buy at this level or wait for further down move to 120...I dont think it will go further down, it seems pretty bottomish here, for both GY and UY, while GU is lying very still...I think Im gonna go ahead and try a buy for both...
likely USD-negative news coming up. Depending on the outcome, UJ might go down under. AS long UJs are not lined up with the news as forecast, it is not favoured now.

But I trade UJ with small lots, buying dips and dumping at the highs, in a strategy that usualy works with heavy waiting, heavy patience. So you will have to have it in mind before jumping in right at this level...

If UJ sinks at USD-news, then we will be talkign about an amazing bottom to fish, where I would consider increasing the lot size. Tha profit, however, may come next week only, panic-free stock markets permit
  • #4,816
  • May 24, 2007 3:07am May 24, 2007 3:07am
Profit taking... well, they got kids to feed

05:29 EURJPY back over 163.00. We heard a bank sold between 300-400m.
  • #4,817
  • May 24, 2007 3:12am May 24, 2007 3:12am
hello everybody,
i'm new here, i tried to learn trade GBP/JPY, but i got curious cause i can't predict the trend.
please any body help me.....

thanks



______________________________________________
Senswell
RumahParfum
Itvisione
  • #4,818
  • Edited 3:47am May 24, 2007 3:26am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting archangeloft
hello everybody,
i'm new here, i tried to learn trade GBP/JPY, but i got curious cause i can't predict the trend.
I am far from being an expert but to me global trend is definetely up. Dont go short, buy on retracements, and you will be a winner (with high probability) :-)
  • #4,819
  • May 24, 2007 3:28am May 24, 2007 3:28am
how to see the relation between the trend and calendar in this web?


________________________________________________
Senswell
RumahParfum
Itvisione
  • #4,820
  • May 24, 2007 4:17am May 24, 2007 4:17am
Quoting archangeloft
how to see the relation between the trend and calendar in this web?

What do u mean about relation between trend and calendar?
We leave no soldier behind.
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