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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #801
  • Edited 1:21am Jun 5, 2023 1:06am | Edited 1:21am
We look to the higher time frame (HTF) in order to decide which way price is likely to move. Recently I have been thinking about what the qualities or conditions are that would give us the best HTF opportunities. This is what I have come up with.

1. The EMAs are nicely separated, but not 'ballooning' apart, best is if they are parallel.
2. The price bars are 'dancing' along the outside of the EMAs - not crossing into the space between them and not pulling away from them.

As always, this is easy afterwards, but less easy when doing it live.
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  • #802
  • Edited 5:57am Jun 5, 2023 5:41am | Edited 5:57am
I started with this MA crossover on the 4h TF but tending more and more towards the 1d TF for larger moves. Remember, 0,02 lot with 100 pips profit equals 0,01 lot with 200 pips profit, with the difference that my SL can also be double while I get stopped out less often. Both systems are okay but I don't want to spend too many hours looking at the charts, just a preference ... I am back into the USD/CHF currency pair, I waited for the price to show a clear reversal, there has been 1 attempt to get above the 100 MA, it looks like we will have a second attempt, after this the potential is high. No guarantees it will happen, of course ... in the meantime you get a nice swap rate
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  • #803
  • Jun 6, 2023 3:17am Jun 6, 2023 3:17am
Quoting Uru-trader
I started with this MA crossover on the 4h TF but tending more and more towards the 1d TF for larger moves. Remember, 0,02 lot with 100 pips profit equals 0,01 lot with 200 pips profit, with the difference that my SL can also be double while I get stopped out less often. Both systems are okay but I don't want to spend too many hours looking at the charts, just a preference ... I am back into the USD/CHF currency pair, I waited for the price to show a clear reversal, there has been 1 attempt to get above the 100 MA, it looks like we will have a second...
I saw this opportunity but also noticed that there is a resistance level sitting somewhere between 0.9060 and 0.9100. Further back in time the same level is respected. I decided to wait and see what happens. If it works out I will try to buy on a revisit to that level.
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  • #804
  • Jun 7, 2023 2:00am Jun 7, 2023 2:00am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I saw this opportunity but also noticed that there is a resistance level sitting somewhere between 0.9060 and 0.9100. Further back in time the same level is respected. I decided to wait and see what happens. If it works out I will try to buy on a revisit to that level. {image}
On H4 this is looking like it might continue down for a while ... But I'm not ready to sell yet
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  • #805
  • Jun 7, 2023 7:03am Jun 7, 2023 7:03am
I bought the pair on May 17th ... I am not sure what to think of it, the swap rate make the patience worthwile but I have the feeling the momentum is reversing, my S/l is 50 pips below my buying price, I hope for the best but in trading 'hopium' is not what we are looking for, I might change my view if we go below the 100 MA on the 4h chart, quite close now
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  • #806
  • Jun 7, 2023 8:56am Jun 7, 2023 8:56am
Quoting Uru-trader
I bought the pair on May 17th ... I am not sure what to think of it, the swap rate make the patience worthwile but I have the feeling the momentum is reversing, my S/l is 50 pips below my buying price, I hope for the best but in trading 'hopium' is not what we are looking for, I might change my view if we go below the 100 MA on the 4h chart, quite close now {image} {image}
Nice trade, and it got up by 120 pips at its best. Pity it weakened so much, but hopefully you held on because it has taken off again. It's difficult to know what to do in these circumstances. Once it has gone back close to the entry level my view is that it's gone anyway, so just set your stop at breakeven and hope for the best. And if it gets stopped out, so be it - no loss is still a win.

The last few days have been difficult. I have had a few trades that I had given up on. One was stopped out but three survived and all of a sudden they are back in profit. Miracles never cease! But it's about having faith in the system - in these cases the HTF was in my favour and my stops were placed far enough away (at the recent swing point) and those factors worked for me.
  • #807
  • Jun 7, 2023 12:40pm Jun 7, 2023 12:40pm
IF it holds and the trend continues, the potential is huge, as can be seen on the weekly timeframe. I would like to find some trades for longer times, setting a T/P in cases such as this one is not simple. Right now, I just hold on without T/P fixed.
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  • #808
  • Edited 4:04am Jun 8, 2023 3:32am | Edited 4:04am
Quoting Uru-trader
IF it holds and the trend continues, the potential is huge, as can be seen on the weekly timeframe. I would like to find some trades for longer times, setting a T/P in cases such as this one is not simple. Right now, I just hold on without T/P fixed. {image}
I have often wondered about going long-term and the weekly chart certainly is tempting. Perhaps, to reduce the psychological pressure, it would be better to start with a small lot size and build it up with each pullback. The distance between the two S/R levels is 900 pips. Juicy!

I have just checked out the overnight swap on this and it's attractive. So this, like CADCHF, which I've been in for a while, is a good choice for going long for a long time.
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  • #809
  • Jun 8, 2023 10:42am Jun 8, 2023 10:42am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I have often wondered about going long-term and the weekly chart certainly is tempting. Perhaps, to reduce the psychological pressure, it would be better to start with a small lot size and build it up with each pullback. The distance between the two S/R levels is 900 pips. Juicy! I have just checked out the overnight swap on this and it's attractive. So this, like CADCHF, which I've been in for a while, is a good choice for going long for a long time. {image}
are you serious ? predicting a countertrend on a weekly chart ?
  • #810
  • Edited 11:04am Jun 8, 2023 10:50am | Edited 11:04am
dont take me wrong.
uru- trader is trading a pullback in a down trend according his own chart. and there is not a crossover of ema ....
and spudfan ...... any predictation on weekly chart is impossible ....
prove me wrong
  • #811
  • Jun 8, 2023 11:12am Jun 8, 2023 11:12am
Quoting Uru-trader
IF it holds and the trend continues, the potential is huge, as can be seen on the weekly timeframe. I would like to find some trades for longer times, setting a T/P in cases such as this one is not simple. Right now, I just hold on without T/P fixed. {image}
i am not clear about your entry and stoploss as per your chart and the rules of the thread .... please elabroate
  • #812
  • Jun 8, 2023 12:04pm Jun 8, 2023 12:04pm
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I have often wondered about going long-term and the weekly chart certainly is tempting. Perhaps, to reduce the psychological pressure, it would be better to start with a small lot size and build it up with each pullback. The distance between the two S/R levels is 900 pips. Juicy! I have just checked out the overnight swap on this and it's attractive. So this, like CADCHF, which I've been in for a while, is a good choice for going long for a long time. {image}
sir...
are you profiting from this syetem ?
yes/ no ?
  • #813
  • Jun 8, 2023 1:24pm Jun 8, 2023 1:24pm
Quoting walvekarraje
{quote} i am not clear about your entry and stoploss as per your chart and the rules of the thread .... please elabroate
Things are not looking great for this trade ... Okay, as you can see in the daily chart, there was a bullish crossover. Since we were in a clear downtrend trading well under the 100 MA I waited for some kind of confirmation. I waited for a first pullback and wanted to BUY once the price showed a reversal versus the past. I took the 18th April and 2nd May highs as a reference and placed my order at 0,9025 above those previous highs of the past weeks. Originally I had a 100 pip S/L but as the price went up nicely I cut the S/L to 50 pips. My intention on this trade was to go for the long ride, thus so far I had not placed a TP. I would be tempted to change my S/L to 100 pips again now that price has reversed again, if it were not for the fact that Switzerland seems to also go in the direction of raising their intrest rate in the coming months, which would probably be bullish for the CHF. I have learned so far that panic is not a good advisor and it is better to stick with your original plan, so I currently keep my 50 pip S/L. I am willing to take this loss and will probably lose this one, but you never know. As it was meant for a longer ride, it was a very small lot size, so no problem. In that case, I will certainly watch out for a new opportunity.
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  • #814
  • Jun 8, 2023 11:03pm Jun 8, 2023 11:03pm
Choppy week with major news next week.
Let's see if next week brings better price action!
  • #815
  • Jun 9, 2023 5:50am Jun 9, 2023 5:50am
hello. has anyone made an EA based on this strategy? is it possible to automate its process or some times its based on trader decision?
i can do this for free if there is any interest and rules can be obvious and written down?
  • #816
  • Edited 2:56am Jun 11, 2023 12:33am | Edited 2:56am
Quoting hm741
hello. has anyone made an EA based on this strategy? is it possible to automate its process or some times its based on trader decision? i can do this for free if there is any interest and rules can be obvious and written down?
It's worth a try if you are willing to do that.

My brief would be as follows:
1. Trading TF AND HTF EMAs (e.g. 8 and 21 EMA) to be aligned (both up / both down). Another option we could test is to have 3 EMAS (e.g 8/21/55 or 8/21/100) all aligned on each TF, but we can test that later?
2. Place a trade at the close of a candle that opens inside the fast EMA and then closes outside of it (i.e. in the direction of the trend)
3. TP at a set number of pips (to make it easier for you - we can change it later to another system)
4. Move to B/E at a set number of pips.
5. I'm not sure about the SL, perhaps for now make it a set number of pips.

How does that sound? I have done some backtesting and overall it does seem to be a winner. It will be interesting to see on the strategy tester how it does.
  • #817
  • Jun 11, 2023 12:35am Jun 11, 2023 12:35am
Quoting yieldplay
Choppy week with major news next week. Let's see if next week brings better price action!
It was not an easy week, but I ended it with one trade reaching the TP and another halfway there that I closed manually (because it was Friday!). So I'm happy overall.
  • #818
  • Jun 11, 2023 3:33am Jun 11, 2023 3:33am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} It's worth a try if you are willing to do that. My brief would be as follows: 1. Trading TF AND HTF EMAs (e.g. 8 and 21 EMA) to be aligned (both up / both down). Another option we could test is to have 3 EMAS (e.g 8/21/55 or 8/21/100) all aligned on each TF, but we can test that later? 2. Place a trade at the close of a candle that opens inside the fast EMA and then closes outside of it (i.e. in the direction of the trend) 3. TP at a set number of pips (to make it easier for you - we can change it later to another system) 4. Move to B/E...
hi. seems to be stright forward and simple, which makes me confident that it will perform good as you said (i am currently using 2 super simple strategy on real account with nice results).
for SL and TP and breakeven it doesnt need to be that simple for my comfort in coding. I'm looking for challenge. i can make it a floating variable based on ATR or any custom formula or indicator you want.
in the next couple of hours as soon as im free what you asked will be done. where should i upload it? in private messages or in this public forum?
  • #819
  • Jun 11, 2023 7:39am Jun 11, 2023 7:39am
Quoting hm741
{quote} hi. seems to be stright forward and simple, which makes me confident that it will perform good as you said (i am currently using 2 super simple strategy on real account with nice results). for SL and TP and breakeven it doesnt need to be that simple for my comfort in coding. I'm looking for challenge. i can make it a floating variable based on ATR or any custom formula or indicator you want. in the next couple of hours as soon as im free what you asked will be done. where should i upload it? in private messages or in this public forum?
You made this offer in a public forum, so I think it is right that you should post it here for everyone to use, test and comment on. Are you okay with that?

And yes, if you don't mind adding to the challenge, use ATR or similar for SL, TP and B/E, according to your judgement. I'm looking forward to seeing what you can come up with!
  • #820
  • Edited 4:15am Jun 12, 2023 1:24am | Edited 4:15am
First trade of the week.

I entered at the top of a minor consolidation, which is where breakouts often occur. It's like flyfishing - place your fly where trout often lurk, waiting for food!

But what I want to point out is the tight formation just below, where all three EMAs have come close together - I call this a "pinch". But it's really just a consolidation, and the EMAs go sideways, naturally. It seems whenever we get a pinch, then a decent trend forms afterward. And if you miss the initial breakout, there is almost always a pullback and that seems to be a good place to enter.
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Here is another currency pair with a similar sideways consolidation and lovely trend breakout. It's a common feature - go looking and you'll see this all over the place. You can trade the initial breakout from consolidation (but doing it live means you don't always know which way it will break), or you can wait for the pullback, by which time the direction is clear.
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