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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,561
  • May 16, 2007 8:11am May 16, 2007 8:11am
11:09 PARIS-JAPAN TRADE MINISTER SAYS JAPANESE ECONOMY NOT ROBUST ENOUGH FOR BOJ TO RAISE RATES AT MOMENT

Watchout, FED's on the wires
  • #4,562
  • May 16, 2007 8:16am May 16, 2007 8:16am
11:14Japan's trade minister says Japanese rates will go to level that dilutes carry-trade impact--this is accelerating JPY cross selling
  • #4,563
  • May 16, 2007 8:28am May 16, 2007 8:28am
Quoting cesarnc
11:14Japan's trade minister says Japanese rates will go to level that dilutes carry-trade impact--this is accelerating JPY cross selling
Looks much more FED on the wires + EURUSD selling from 11:00 fix.... Since UJ is not falling
  • #4,564
  • May 16, 2007 8:30am May 16, 2007 8:30am
It appears that the gj is now following the cable down. LOL.

What an animal this GJ is. Now I know why some call it the dragon.
  • #4,565
  • May 16, 2007 8:55am May 16, 2007 8:55am
well, this was a nice one. The dragon really requires nerves of steel. Im happy I sold it once it reached 239.40 , but now all my technical analysis is messed up, cant understand a dime. And GU, looks like it retraced exactly to the 50 Fib of the move from 2.000 to 1.9750 and now its heading back down...so trend down? Recently UY looks the most stable and less risky.

Have no idea how to normally trade using technicals when a currency moves up 70 pips and now its down where it started. Really confused...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,566
  • May 16, 2007 9:15am May 16, 2007 9:15am
Appears to be trying to get through the 23.6 fib return south. Possible Support here @ 238.67

Could push further south if broken.

Also open for the day is close as well. A lot of resistance.
  • #4,567
  • May 16, 2007 9:35am May 16, 2007 9:35am
Quoting cesarnc
11:14Japan's trade minister says Japanese rates will go to level that dilutes carry-trade impact--this is accelerating JPY cross selling
Looks like there are talks of Japan GDP coming stronger than expected today. If so, this could trigger the fear of further hawkish tone from Tokyo, thus trigger UJ and Yen carries profit taking

Stay tuned tonight.
  • #4,568
  • May 16, 2007 10:04am May 16, 2007 10:04am
Quoting cesarnc
Looks like there are talks of Japan GDP coming stronger than expected today. If so, this could trigger the fear of further hawkish tone from Tokyo, thus trigger UJ and Yen carries profit taking

Stay tuned tonight.
Hi cesarnc,

I am currently short on usd\jpy @73 with a stop 121.03

I was expecting it tooo go to 119.60 very soon from the overbought stochs on 4HR....

Any advice mate..

Thanks
  • #4,569
  • May 16, 2007 11:02am May 16, 2007 11:02am
Quoting rav700
Hi cesarnc,

I am currently short on usd\jpy @73 with a stop 121.03

I was expecting it tooo go to 119.60 very soon from the overbought stochs on 4HR....

Any advice mate..

Thanks
I'm off UJ at 120.75 after the run from 120.15. Awaiting direction on upcoming news.
  • #4,570
  • May 16, 2007 3:54pm May 16, 2007 3:54pm
Twice, two sources, same rumor: "JP GDP coming up above consensus"

FYI
  • #4,571
  • May 16, 2007 4:07pm May 16, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
Twice, two sources, same rumor: "JP GDP coming up above consensus"

FYI
Thanks mate I came out at b\e....and am waiting for the news...

From what I have read they are expecting more than 1%

The news is at 12:50 ....are you planning to trade gbp\jpy.....the usd\yen..
if you dont mind me asking....I have been very unlucky this morning had a really good position on eur\jpy but came out to early as I was not too confident about my position.......
  • #4,572
  • May 16, 2007 4:09pm May 16, 2007 4:09pm
I have a Pretty basic question .If JP GDP consensus is higher than expected then will the Jp get strong in relation to other currencies.,bec looking at the charts USD/JPY looks ready for a reversal. any comments , thanks.
P.S cesarnc your help will be appreciated!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,573
  • May 16, 2007 4:15pm May 16, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting rav700
Thanks mate I came out at b\e....and am waiting for the news...

From what I have read they are expecting more than 1%

The news is at 12:50 ....are you planning to trade gbp\jpy.....the usd\yen..
if you dont mind me asking....I have been very unlucky this morning had a really good position on eur\jpy but came out to early as I was not too confident about my position.......
Tell me about it. I had remarkable trades in UJ to see the whole damn profit to the drain with GU and EU... still holding those, though...

Well, I'm not sure what to do about yen now... GDP is not that big mover, you know? But if GDP comes out with large deviation - to the upside - it could trigger some fears of BOJ getting hawkish - like the fin min was today - then finally inspiring some profit taking.

I wouldn't say a "selloff", but some sort of correction, maybe...

GDP coming as forecast or slighly below is not likely to push much, imo.
  • #4,574
  • May 16, 2007 4:19pm May 16, 2007 4:19pm
Hi cesarnc. i am sorry i am asking this again. but what u mean is that if GDP is higher then there might be a yen sell off. so the counter currency will get strong? thankyou for your patience.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,575
  • May 16, 2007 4:21pm May 16, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting BIL2205
I have a Pretty basic question .If JP GDP consensus is higher than expected then will the Jp get strong in relation to other currencies.,bec looking at the charts USD/JPY looks ready for a reversal. any comments , thanks.
P.S cesarnc your help will be appreciated!!!
i'd put more weight in that Fukui has to say later on than on GDP, if it comes as forecast or low deviation.

GDPs are usually priced in by the previous monthly economical data.

Today, the Japan Fin Min. came hawkish saying rates to be corrected to, in other words, "get rid of these damn carry trades" .

You've seen the outcome.

Fukui always comes hawkish and inspire Yen buyings, I think he does that to calm down his fellows in ECB. Overall, the outcome in the 2 days is a remarkable bottom in UJ to fish... So I might be in the sidelines in UJ for a while... Or maybe a short if a large selloff gets started, pushing it way below the 120.50/30 marks.
  • #4,576
  • May 16, 2007 4:22pm May 16, 2007 4:22pm
Quoting BIL2205
Hi cesarnc. i am sorry i am asking this again. but what u mean is that if GDP is higher then there might be a yen sell off. so the counter currency will get strong? thankyou for your patience.
No, it could inspire Yen carries selling (*/JPY down)
  • #4,577
  • May 16, 2007 4:25pm May 16, 2007 4:25pm
THANKS!!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #4,578
  • May 16, 2007 4:27pm May 16, 2007 4:27pm
All I'm saying here is pure speculation huh? Just food for thought as to understand why the market moved this way or the other...

Not a trade recommendation.
  • #4,579
  • May 16, 2007 4:51pm May 16, 2007 4:51pm
If the BOJ finally does (at some point) raise interest rates high enough to end the carry trade, would that affect overall market volitilty over time?

I'm wondering if a move like that could slow the whole market down a lot.

The reason this possiblity occurs to me is this:

Trades all seem to move a lot better for a while after a Yen-Cross correction. But when the Yen Crosses top out like they did the last two weeks (and meet with constant resistance) the rest of the market seems to slow down, too.

Is this my imagination, a co-incidence, or fact?
  • #4,580
  • May 16, 2007 4:55pm May 16, 2007 4:55pm

so Japan messes up as usual...forget the rumours, trade the fact. another run to 239.45?

We leave no soldier behind.
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