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MA Crossover System that works for me

  • #761
  • May 15, 2023 5:16am May 15, 2023 5:16am
Quoting AlistairC
{quote} I might have jinxed this trade. The pullback is strong on H1 and might stop me out. But a good thing about it is if it does go back down it will likely form a fractal at its high point, allowing me to move the SL down to the previous fractal (the most recent one that is visible already). {image}
If I may ask; where is the best place to place a stop loss...

Regards,
My goal is what keeps me going...
  • #762
  • May 15, 2023 7:06am May 15, 2023 7:06am
Quoting kazzyworld
{quote} If I may ask; where is the best place to place a stop loss... Regards,
There's no "best" place, rather choices you need to make. Personally, I like to place my SLs beyond the most recent swing point, but that makes for quite large SL distances and risk-reward ratios close to 1. Others prefer tighter stops, for example, if you have a pinbar or an inside bar or two-bar pullback setup then they might place the stop just beyond that setup - the other end of the PB or just beyond the mother bar, etc. That gives you a much better risk-reward ratio, eg 25 pips loss, 100 pips profit = RR of 4. But then you stand a greater risk of being stopped out because the SL is close.
  • #763
  • May 15, 2023 12:20pm May 15, 2023 12:20pm
When this breaks it is likely to be a good one. I don't know which way it will go, but the D1 trend is up, so that's the more likely option.
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  • #764
  • May 16, 2023 8:46am May 16, 2023 8:46am
Quoting AlistairC
When this breaks it is likely to be a good one. I don't know which way it will go, but the D1 trend is up, so that's the more likely option. {image}
Same for this one, which has been in a nice range for some time now, with the change in intrest rate policies we might see the USD getting stronger again, my expectation for this one would be a breakout to the downside
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  • #765
  • May 16, 2023 11:07pm May 16, 2023 11:07pm
This pair has broken down, then pulled back to the breakout level during my night and so this morning I was able to sell closer to the EMAs.
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  • #766
  • May 16, 2023 11:14pm May 16, 2023 11:14pm
I placed this trade yesterday. Trend is up on both timeframes. Price was in consolidation but dropping towards the EMAs so I entered just above those more recent bars and it caught the breakout very nicely.
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  • #767
  • May 17, 2023 5:47am May 17, 2023 5:47am
Quoting AlistairC
I placed this trade yesterday. Trend is up on both timeframes. Price was in consolidation but dropping towards the EMAs so I entered just above those more recent bars and it caught the breakout very nicely. {image} {image}
Target of 113 pips reached.
  • #768
  • May 17, 2023 9:15am May 17, 2023 9:15am
Hi AlistairC and all. thank you for the wonderful thread. I greatly appreciate your efforts. I'm currentrly still learning and demoing the strategy.
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  • #769
  • May 17, 2023 1:24pm May 17, 2023 1:24pm
Eur Aud already had a fake out of the upper trendline. Perhaps now a break of the lower TL will coincide with the MA's crossing over?
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  • #770
  • May 17, 2023 2:57pm May 17, 2023 2:57pm
Quoting apo
Hi AlistairC and all. thank you for the wonderful thread. I greatly appreciate your efforts. I'm currentrly still learning and demoing the strategy.{image} {image}
Apo, I like your ADR indicator, where did you find this one? Maybe you can share the downoad?
  • #771
  • May 17, 2023 11:52pm May 17, 2023 11:52pm
Quoting apo
Hi AlistairC and all. thank you for the wonderful thread. I greatly appreciate your efforts. I'm currentrly still learning and demoing the strategy.{image} {image}
Welcome to this thread, apo! You seem to have it worked out already, based on this EURJPY analysis. I placed a trade on this pair a few minutes ago.

D1 is up. On H4 there was the breakout that apo would have caught, then consolidation. There is a clear bit of space now between price and the EMAs so this pullback might continue down for a while. Hopefully my buy stop order will catch the next move up.
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  • #772
  • May 18, 2023 12:11am May 18, 2023 12:11am
Quoting apo
Eur Aud already had a fake out of the upper trendline. Perhaps now a break of the lower TL will coincide with the MA's crossing over?{image}
Nice use of the wedge pattern. I agree that the breakout might be down. Just a note that trend lines can be deceptive. Here's the same chart but with the upper line drawn right on the tips of the various candles. It doesn't show a fakeout except maybe very slightly yesterday. Have you read the section of the thread where I started becoming more aware of the importance of chart patterns for detecting consolidations, and avoiding getting caught up in them? That was a very useful learning for me. And the idea that we should also embrace consolidations because they often lead to a breakout.

The bigger picture (monthly) shows that price might be reversing from the key level at 1.8600, also, we have a flag and pole formation (more easily seen on D1), which also suggests a break down from the flag / pennant.
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  • #773
  • May 18, 2023 5:56am May 18, 2023 5:56am
EUR/USD has nice potential, I opened this trade on the 4h chart, now it looks as if it will also go underneath the 100MA, more potential ...
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  • #774
  • May 18, 2023 8:05am May 18, 2023 8:05am
Could gold be targeting the MA-100, around 1925 - 1930? It would not be straight down so maybe look for a pullback on the 4h chart?
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  • #775
  • May 18, 2023 8:13am May 18, 2023 8:13am
Quoting yanah12
Hi, Gold is giving us an interesting setup. I'll wait for market to dictate its move. Prefer price to go south. {image} Hv a nice weekend to all
Gold going south. Did anyone took the short trade?

Green pips to everyone.

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  • #776
  • May 18, 2023 8:13am May 18, 2023 8:13am
GbpCad short trade.

Bless the pips

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  • #777
  • May 18, 2023 10:06am May 18, 2023 10:06am
How many pairs do you guys watch? And how correlated are they?

I like the idea of swing trading but watching a lot of pairs has me on the sidelines for now.

Thanks in advanec!
  • #778
  • May 18, 2023 11:27am May 18, 2023 11:27am
Hi Uru-Trader
...here's the ADR indicator...enjoy
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 average-daily-range-adr-indicator (1).ex4   10 KB | 278 downloads
  • #779
  • May 18, 2023 11:49am May 18, 2023 11:49am
Hi AlistaireC...thank you for the welcome. Yes I read that section about the patterns. I try to always look for a confluence of reasons to enter a trade. The pattern is one. Right now the Eur Aud ( 4 hr ) looks like this to me.Two kind of similar patterns at the same area. I can draw patterns easier using line charts. I know that they are not for everyone. Thanks for your charts and analysis.
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  • #780
  • May 18, 2023 11:43pm May 18, 2023 11:43pm
Quoting MTF-Trades
How many pairs do you guys watch? And how correlated are they? I like the idea of swing trading but watching a lot of pairs has me on the sidelines for now. Thanks in advance!
I have 26 forex charts open all the time (made up of the majors and minors but no weird ones, I also avoid EURNZD and GBPNZD). Then I scan them for setups. Once you have settled on a trading system, it's usually quick to pick up suitable setups - mostly it's a matter of rejecting charts that are not suitable, then spending time looking at those that might be suitable, mostly rejecting those too, and finally identifying one or two that seem just right. I have set up some simple indicator dashboards that pick up those that meet my conditions, eg where both H4 and D1 have EMAs crossed in the same direction (yanah12's method). That does make things more obvious, but I'm not sure it's any quicker, and by scanning all of them manually I get a better feel for overall trends or market behaviour, or even possible setups I might have missed using just a dumb indicator dashboard.

Correlations are a bit of a mystery to me. I just note that sometimes the entire market seems to have slowed down (risk off) or it's active across the board. I try not to trade more than two directly related pairs at the same time e.g. NZDxxx or GBPxxx pairs.
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Ransford12