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Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

  • #5,401
  • May 12, 2023 10:46am May 12, 2023 10:46am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Hi Laura It is so nice to hear that you are alive and wealthy to some extend. I have seen this several times. An OP just disapear. No warning at all. The last post gave no sign at all, that it would be the last. Then the followers - I was one - get worried. "What has happened?". And we become sad. So to you and all other OP's with a lot off followers my wish is: It is of cause very OK if you need to get away from the thread - for any reason. But please, if it is possible, write just one single message to tell us, that you are leaving. Please....
Hi,

It's a fair point. My health condition means it's going to be unavoidable from time to time that I have to disengage from all activity without warning. But I don't intend to worry anyone so I'll make every effort to post an update when I'm able again.

Hope you're doing well.
  • #5,402
  • May 12, 2023 10:48am May 12, 2023 10:48am
Quoting ianhjulberg
One more winner from the 15m exercise... {image} Entry on a channel cross to the downside... {image} Exit after a bar closure inside the channel I'm really liking this so far
Fantastic. Another stress-free journey!
  • #5,403
  • May 12, 2023 11:35am May 12, 2023 11:35am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Nice T - also a lovely example of price becoming too extended beyond the SMA.
Thank you Laura.
And a chart of SP500 on 15 minute ( level setting) and one minute execution chart. ( 5 minute execution chart can be used but can be a rough ride on the nerves and pocket)
I use 15 minute level setting chart and 5 minute execution on Forex.
"Roadmap" philosophy is core
Level setting or "lines" is another idea or set of ideas I picked up on "The Flying Dutchman" ( Bluesteele posts there) - I use them in conjunction with Laura's "Roadmap."
Laura's journal thread is a must read for many, especially newer guys.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,404
  • May 12, 2023 11:57am May 12, 2023 11:57am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Thank you Laura. And a chart of SP500 on 15 minute ( level setting) and one minute execution chart. ( 5 minute execution chart can be used but can be a rough ride on the nerves and pocket) I use 15 minute level setting chart and 5 minute execution on Forex. "Roadmap" philosophy is core Level setting or "lines" is another idea or set of ideas I picked up on "The Flying Dutchman" ( Bluesteele posts there) - I use them in conjunction with Laura's "Roadmap." Laura's journal thread is a must read for many, especially newer guys. {image} {image}...
This is why I always try to encourage people to take whatever parts of Roadmap work for them and discard the rest. It's great that you've also found other things to use alongside the basics. That ability to keep what is useful and build upon it with other elements is a huge advantage compared to those who try to copy others. We're individuals and we can't expect to all trade the same way.

I'm energized by always designing new stuff and exploring new ideas I have (sometimes to ridiculous extremes lol) but that only works for me because of the foundations I've built in the past. It's the people who jump from one approach to another repeatedly without having those foundations built who make me worry for them.
  • #5,405
  • May 12, 2023 12:15pm May 12, 2023 12:15pm
Quoting LauraT
{quote} This is why I always try to encourage people to take whatever parts of Roadmap work for them and discard the rest. It's great that you've also found other things to use alongside the basics. That ability to keep what is useful and build upon it with other elements is a huge advantage compared to those who try to copy others. We're individuals and we can't expect to all trade the same way. I'm energized by always designing new stuff and exploring new ideas I have (sometimes to ridiculous extremes lol) but that only works for me because of...
Don't think I have posted here.
After reading some George method, a post brought me here. I used a general form of your method to get back into studying the market. What I do could even be considered similar, though I put it together for my psych look at the markets.

Just wanted to say thank you in person (relatively) for being a part of my journey.

Mark
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #5,406
  • May 12, 2023 12:32pm May 12, 2023 12:32pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} Don't think I have posted here. After reading some George method, a post brought me here. I used a general form of your method to get back into studying the market. What I do could even be considered similar, though I put it together for my psych look at the markets. Just wanted to say thank you in person (relatively) for being a part of my journey. Mark
Hi Mark,

That's very kind, thank you. I'm glad it helped in some way.

Wish you every success for your continued journey.
  • #5,407
  • May 14, 2023 10:44pm May 14, 2023 10:44pm
I am glad to meet you
Thanks for the good method.
I am practicing.
When the 200 SMA is sideways
Should I not enter?
After entry, it went the other way.
I'm thinking of cutting my losses.
Is this a good place to cut my losses?
GOLD M5
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  • #5,408
  • May 15, 2023 2:33am May 15, 2023 2:33am
Quoting 1MAX
I am glad to meet you Thanks for the good method. I am practicing. When the 200 SMA is sideways Should I not enter? After entry, it went the other way. I'm thinking of cutting my losses. Is this a good place to cut my losses? GOLD M5 {image}
Hi - welcome.

Best to avoid taking entries when SMA is flat. It's a sign of no clear direction.

Your trade becomes invalidated when the channel crosses fully above the SMA, at which point you should exit.
  • #5,409
  • May 15, 2023 2:47am May 15, 2023 2:47am
Three out of four not bad.
Rising 200 MA; Broke 15 minute highs marked off pre 7am UK time. BRN's marked as possible PA reaction points.
15 minute to mark levels and 5 minute execution.

This is my last post for a while.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,410
  • May 15, 2023 2:49am May 15, 2023 2:49am
Quoting 1MAX
I am glad to meet you Thanks for the good method. I am practicing. When the 200 SMA is sideways Should I not enter? After entry, it went the other way. I'm thinking of cutting my losses. Is this a good place to cut my losses? GOLD M5 {image}
If you are serious about practice then I strongly urge you to read Laura's journal thread
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,411
  • May 15, 2023 7:37am May 15, 2023 7:37am
Here's a DAX trade I just closed using the 15min exercise....

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Entry on 1m channel cross. 15min bars were already closing under the channel

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Exited when a 15m bar closed inside the channel

  • #5,412
  • May 15, 2023 9:06am May 15, 2023 9:06am
The SP500 -lines and channel. A good session - two losses and three profitable trades.
Definitely not posting for a while. Laura's approach is about study, practice, make it your own and then work hard at it.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #5,413
  • May 17, 2023 3:20am May 17, 2023 3:20am
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Gold trade just closed for a winner
Got in a little late after the channel failure
Exited when a 15m bar closed inside the channel
  • #5,414
  • May 17, 2023 3:28am May 17, 2023 3:28am
This was another Gold trade I took yesterday...
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Again, I got in a little late after the channel cross
I didn't wait for 15m closure inside the channel, but ended up closing at ADR low. I would have gotten a few more pips had I actually waited for a 15m closure inside the channel, but still happy with the outcome!
  • #5,415
  • May 17, 2023 3:38am May 17, 2023 3:38am
Quoting ianhjulberg
This was another Gold trade I took yesterday... {image} Again, I got in a little late after the channel cross I didn't wait for 15m closure inside the channel, but ended up closing at ADR low. I would have gotten a few more pips had I actually waited for a 15m closure inside the channel, but still happy with the outcome!
Things seem to be going well for you. How are the stats looking so far?
  • #5,416
  • May 17, 2023 3:53am May 17, 2023 3:53am
Quoting LauraT
{quote} Things seem to be going well for you. How are the stats looking so far?
I'm ashamed to say I haven't calculated the stats yet, but I would say I'm around 50% win rate. The good thing is that the wins are MUCH greater than the losses, so my profit factor should be decent.

I still tend to FOMO into some trades that don't have great market structure/volatility, otherwise my win rate would be higher.

I will come back with some stats
  • #5,417
  • May 17, 2023 4:36am May 17, 2023 4:36am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} I'm ashamed to say I haven't calculated the stats yet, but I would say I'm around 50% win rate. The good thing is that the wins are MUCH greater than the losses, so my profit factor should be decent. I still tend to FOMO into some trades that don't have great market structure/volatility, otherwise my win rate would be higher. I will come back with some stats
Regarding the 15m exercise:
I've had quite a few trades where I got in and then the very next 15m bar closed inside the channel so I had to close with a loss (usually very small loss). But some of those would have ended up being winners had I stayed in as the next bar(s) continued to close back outside the channel. But some would continue to go against my closed trade which would have resulted in a bigger loss of course. So, probably a wash in that regard.

Also, I will sometimes get caught in a situation where one 15m bar will close outside the channel and then the next one will close inside the channel, and then the next one will close outside the channel, and then the next one will close inside the channel, and so on lol. I think this is a case of low volatility where I should be staying away?
  • #5,418
  • May 17, 2023 4:45am May 17, 2023 4:45am
AUDUSD went short at the initial arrow but it did not work out now waiting for a buy after channel cross
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  • #5,419
  • May 17, 2023 4:56am May 17, 2023 4:56am
Quoting ianhjulberg
{quote} Regarding the 15m exercise: I've had quite a few trades where I got in and then the very next 15m bar closed inside the channel so I had to close with a loss (usually very small loss). But some of those would have ended up being winners had I stayed in as the next bar(s) continued to close back outside the channel. But some would continue to go against my closed trade which would have resulted in a bigger loss of course. So, probably a wash in that regard. Also, I will sometimes get caught in a situation where one 15m bar will close outside...
We're still in the exercise stage, with the aim of allowing you to see the bigger picture and with the goal of achieving flawless execution. Therefore, don't worry too much about anything in addition to that quite yet.

However, it's good that you are noticing price behaviour. Spoiler alert - upon completion of the exercise we can review learnings and observations. From that, you should be able to construct the next exercise parameters. Think of it as a step by step process toward nailing down a structured way of trading.

To answer your query about closes in relation to the channel though, if the last bar to close outside the channel does it below and the next bar closes inside, the picture is still technically bearish. In many cases it will simply be a healthy retracement before the trend asserts itself again.

But of course, it can also be an early sign of momentum disappearing and/or be a prelude to a reversal. Everything is a trade-off - staying in on those inside closes means you won't get shaken out of positions as much but the flip side is that losses will be larger. Ultimately we have to choose our poison - there is no perfect solution.
  • #5,420
  • May 17, 2023 5:04am May 17, 2023 5:04am
Quoting mckeep
AUDUSD went short at the initial arrow but it did not work out now waiting for a buy after channel cross {image} {image}
Try to also be aware of structure. Prior to your entry, the market had printed a higher low and then it took out the previous high. I completely understand why you took the trade as it was in a spot where profit potential could be significant. However, that structural change (especially after a decent sized drop prior to it) was an early sign that the balance of power had shifted.
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