:: Cable (GBPUSD) Trend Trading ::

to you to WOW

Have a great week everyone.

UK PPI measures inflation in the manufacturing sector in the UK which contributes around 20% of total inflation in the UK. UK PPI Input is the price that manufacturers pay for raw materials and UK PPI output is what UK manufacturers are charging their wholesalers.

Both numbers are coming out for April and PPI input is expected to rise by 1.0% and PPI output is expected to rise by around 0.5%. It's hard to say which one is more important, both are pretty important and if they are conflicting by a lot only the Forex Gods will know where it'll go.

It's a lot more common to see a big jump in the input, rather than output, which is natural, because input is a leading indicator and is a lot harder to predict. Prices of output today will probably depend on what the input prices were a few months ago, so the output numbers are usually predicted very well by economists, plus even if the manufacturers have to pay much higher prices for raw materials, they can't always pass it down to their clients, because there is competition, so the output prices seem to be more stable in general.

If the prices jump on the input, it doesn't always mean that they will affect the economy as much, because manufacturers may eat the costs. Output prices will affect inflation.

See you all later.

Enjoy breakfast.

The 50 ema on the daily, 38% fib from 14 Mar, 62% fib from 9 Apr, a triple top (1 Dec, 23 Jan, 3 Apr) all provided support. It would take something big to knock all these away surely for GBP to fall much more?

Having said all that my software is giving the lower pivot for the day at 1.9805 so I'd be happy to see that tested and a turn up from there.

Not sure how effective pivots are on a Monday though??

I´m not trading this week as I´m taking a boat to the South of France - St Tropez - good luck to you all and I catch up with you when I get back.

Hey, no excuses ok? Plenty of boats have internet connection. Put on you bathing suit, grab a bottle ot WATER and you laptop.

Hi WOW,

Good morning and hope all's well to all.

See that things were a bit dodgy back there for the longs but just now clawing its way back up. One item just came up which might explain ....

"0903 GMT [Dow Jones] The UK data slate is heavy this week with PPI just passed, CPI, jobless claims, average earnings, retail sales and the Inflation Report still to come, notes HBoS. The bank says a tightening labor market, upside risks in retail sales and the Inflation Report (the latter indicated in last week's BoE statement) should all be positives for the pound. Cable now at 1.9809, EUR/GBP at 0.6834. (GST)"

Perhaps worthwhile keeping an eye on the equities re. the carry trade effect..mixed as of now.

Anyways ..I'm away for a few hours...it's evening where I am and it's bowling league night!!

Cheers

This article is in the news section today. Very interesting.

"It was perhaps unreasonable to expect that one quarter of preliminary growth at 1.3% would panic the Fed into a ceding that the inflation fight was won and that their concern was now the fading economic growth. Returning growth in the later part of 2007 has been a predicted constant for the Fed since the beginning of the year. All this being said it is still useful to remember that Q1 2007 is now the fourth quarter in a row with sub 3 % growth. In the past every instance of five quarters of sub 3 percent growth quarters in a row has produced a rate cut as the next Fed rate move".

A US rate cut before year end??

Just bought at 1.9821 after the 1,2,3 bottom.

Not a surprise. Mixed-to-negative economical data already justify the cut. What is stalling FED from cutting is fear of inflation.

FED is known for staying in the sidelines for a long period. Sooner or later they have to take a position.

Tomorrow's US CPI is key data for the week.

And looking at entry for another 5. Chaos over here - got the builders in! More in a moment. Last 1.9802 - 13 pips adrift from entry at 1.9815.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0514134718.GIF

Yeah, Why.... Our GU longs will have to chew some bitter times yet... And unless tomorrow's GB data come strong and/or USD data come weak, I don't see further gains for the month

What is clearly preventing GU from falling off the cliff is the carry trades biased up and Euro on the push, factoring its likely rate hike on next month. But this can easily be temporary. If market does not see value in cable longs tomorrow, forget it....

It needs to get through 1.983. Then 1.988 & 1.989 will be in sight. A waiting game, me thinks. If anything we're looking at a scalp short for 20 or 30 but the risk just ain't worth it IMO ATM. But an entry long 20 pips below or 30 may be.

Wednesday's quarterly BoE inflation report is the key event for me this week.

Good milestone

Great to see all the views. I've just noticed there are now more posts here today concerning cable than the Cable Update thread - and with more to say. You must be sorely missed cesarnc and others. No further orders for me today. Last 1.98.

1.9810 SL 1.9830 TP 1.9760. Last 1.9801.

I wasn't going to but it really looks poised to go lower towards 1.9730 over the next several hours. Prices should hold below 1.9830 - bull trend-line off the 5/11 lows - so that's my SL in case I'm wrong. Another chart soon. Last 1.9801. Risk return for this trade is the best in this thread to date - 2.5.

Friday's 1.9845 high and then sellers took the lead, using o/b hourlies as leverage. A breakout beyond the 38.2% of the 2.0000 to 1.9760 slide at 1.9855 is needed to give the me fresh enthusiasm to go long again. A close above there is also key ATM.

I'll look to go long towards 1.976 if we get there by my morning. I'll consider that in 14 hours. See you then - that's it from me for today. Good luck.

As promised - here it is. GU is starting to approach some significant daily moving averages on the downside and with UK CPI due in 17 hours a move lower may happen. TTFN.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0514170927.GIF

Last 1.9807 and I'm really gone now.

Watchout, don't try to rush things up. Cable traders are in the sidelines until tomorrow. A surprising CPI above 2.0% will turn this chart upside down, man...

I don't know about you, but I decided to start trading other pairs, too...

Yesterday's NZ retail Sales boosted NZDUSD up while USDCAD today formed a text-book Head&Shoulders in the 1hr.

USDJPY breached 120 on Friday and ever since provided a remarkable R:R for a long position. Stop at 119.85.

Euro-dollar bounced off 3475 and provided 80 pips today...

All beautiful, clean, health-friendly trades

So it was a lousy day for GU longs and a remarkable day for all these pairs...

My secret? Stop reading the truckload of nonsenses in the forum and dedicate much more time and effort trading.