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:: Cable (GBPUSD) Trend Trading ::

  • #361
  • May 10, 2007 10:00pm May 10, 2007 10:00pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
1.9895 SL 1.9795 TP 2.0095. Last 1.9945.
Hit SL for a loss of 500 pips.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #362
  • May 10, 2007 10:03pm May 10, 2007 10:03pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
1.9815 SL 1.9715 TP 1.9995. Last 1.9870.
Last 1.9802 5 long open for an open loss currently of 13 pips each.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #363
  • May 10, 2007 10:05pm May 10, 2007 10:05pm
for a better day for you today WOW.....
  • #364
  • May 10, 2007 10:09pm May 10, 2007 10:09pm
Quoting Navigator
Good morning Why Oh Why,

I've been looking in on your thread for a few weeks now 'cause I'm learning a lot from the opinions of yourself and other posters. Many thanks! Agree with fundamental opinions I see here so why did the GBP/USD go down yesterday?....It got me too!! Hope it helps 'though I know it's all been said before... somewhere. btw... I'm long again from 1.9783...SFSG
Thanks for your considered opinion. And great to have you here. Right now I have the mother of all hangovers after a rather lively party in to the small hours and I haven't had much sleep. No breakfast today I'll be going back to bed soon and I'l post more later.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #365
  • May 10, 2007 10:12pm May 10, 2007 10:12pm
Quoting proctorforex
for a better day for you today WOW.....
You and me both mate. I don't normally open new positions on a Friday so I'm trusting the outstanding 5 long will turn around by close of the week.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #366
  • May 10, 2007 10:14pm May 10, 2007 10:14pm
Quoting Islander
I´ve been out most of the day, but do have some underwater positions in the Euro - which I´m holding.

Statistically, I would expect the weeks low tomorrow, although I´ve not yet had a good look to see where the support and fibos come in - now cables on new lows at 9793 and euro also at 3484.

This maybe the big shake-out that´s needed before an attack above the
2.0131 level - time will tell.
Nice to see you again. I got stuffed as you saw. Onwards and upwards.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #367
  • May 10, 2007 10:17pm May 10, 2007 10:17pm
Quoting obeewon
buy buy buy!!! thats all i can say.. GU is getting cheap and imo getting ready for that move to 2.00... just wanted to drop my 2 pips... i with u
I love it now at 9800. Great to see you here obeewon.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #368
  • May 10, 2007 10:24pm May 10, 2007 10:24pm
Just to twist that knife a little more a signal provider I use gave a sell yesterday at 1.9833 just before the 3rd leg down. I didn't even look at the computer. I should have, a drop 20 odd pips below the even number (yet again!). The fozzy 8rsi/8sma's on all time frames were crossing down all over again and the W's % R was staying below the -50 line on all but the 5 min chart. A sure sign of weakness. Oh well!

A better day for all I hope, is this weakness over yet???
  • #369
  • May 10, 2007 10:29pm May 10, 2007 10:29pm
Quoting Vantage
A better day for all I hope, is this weakness over yet???
I'm not sure right now Vantage but I'm feeling very sorry for myself ATM. Not because of the loss - shit happens - but because I really can't party as hard as I used too. Terrible hangover and I'm off back to bed.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #370
  • May 10, 2007 10:46pm May 10, 2007 10:46pm
A quick look at the weekly chart's MACD shows divergence which is not good news.

The daily 50 ema has done a good job providing support and we are at that level now. A couple of fib levels also support around .9780.

If this breaks next supp areas seem to be .9750, .9680 and a pivot on the daily chart at .9655 just above the 100 ema.
  • #371
  • May 10, 2007 10:48pm May 10, 2007 10:48pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
I'm not sure right now Vantage but I'm feeling very sorry for myself ATM. Not because of the loss - shit happens - but because I really can't party as hard as I used too. Terrible hangover and I'm off back to bed.
Its the first sign of getting old and it usually kicks in at about 25. You may have the right idea for today!!
  • #372
  • May 10, 2007 11:02pm May 10, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
I'm not sure right now Vantage but I'm feeling very sorry for myself ATM. Not because of the loss - shit happens - but because I really can't party as hard as I used too. Terrible hangover and I'm off back to bed.
LOL WOW - I suspect that I may have a similar problem over the weekend - a good friend who "drinks for England" has just arrived on the island - without his wife - I´ve already bought more pain-killers!

Chartwise, IF the small double bottom around 9770 does NOT hold, then I can see a 5 wave EW move - impulsive rather than a 3 wave corrective.

So far, the overnight bounce has been small, not even getting up to the 5 min 200ema. This tends to support a further push down. If that happens, the EW targets will be 9692, 660 or 618.

9660 is also the 50% retrace of the rally from the March low to the April 18 high.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #373
  • May 10, 2007 11:16pm May 10, 2007 11:16pm
That wasnt fun, but hey as WOW said "Shit Happens" and Trichet is living proof.

Think I'm going to start a "GAG TRICHET FUND" Any contributors?
  • #374
  • May 10, 2007 11:41pm May 10, 2007 11:41pm
Quoting Make a Million
That wasnt fun, but hey as WOW said "Shit Happens" and Trichet is living proof.

Think I'm going to start a "GAG TRICHET FUND" Any contributors?
Unless we hope he stays in his job forever and we sell next time.
  • #375
  • May 11, 2007 7:20am May 11, 2007 7:20am
Hi...hope what you see eases the headache lol

ATM the dow is steaming north at a nice rate of knots. Carry trades seem to be on again with strong push north and GPB/JPY towing GBP/USD along with it. What a difference a day makes ....IF it stays on the same course. Just now have the Dow and GBP/JPY on the chart and you could almost trade one from the other...weird..

Cheers,

Navigator
  • #376
  • May 12, 2007 2:31am May 12, 2007 2:31am
Quoting Why Oh Why
On the week here we have 543 closed pips profit for 4 trades on 5 lots each after allowing for 1 loser of 250. 318 pips last week with similar trade volume and 1 loser as well. I will have a losing week soon.
And that was this week. A loss on the week of 158 pips. It could have been so much better. Oh dear, never mind. So, for three weeks we still have 703 pips. One open trade for 5 long just above break even is still open. Thanks to everyone that dropped by. Have a great weekend and see you again in a couple of hours before the London open.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #377
  • May 13, 2007 5:15pm May 13, 2007 5:15pm
Quoting Navigator
Hi...hope what you see eases the headache lol

ATM the dow is steaming north at a nice rate of knots. Carry trades seem to be on again with strong push north and GPB/JPY towing GBP/USD along with it. What a difference a day makes ....IF it stays on the same course. Just now have the Dow and GBP/JPY on the chart and you could almost trade one from the other...weird..

Cheers,

Navigator
And I recall reading somewhere that the DOW leads GBP/JPY so if you see a big move in the DOW, 100 points if I recall, GBP/JPY follows.
  • #378
  • May 13, 2007 5:48pm May 13, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting Vantage
And I recall reading somewhere that the DOW leads GBP/JPY so if you see a big move in the DOW, 100 points if I recall, GBP/JPY follows.
Carry trades (as GJ, EJ, etc) are RISK RELATED pairs. As well as the stock market, where Dow Jones is the leading indicator (although many says S&P 500 would be better).

One of the most popular ways of flowing cash to the stock market is via borrowing Yen at cheap interest rates. So it is common to see GJ chart mimiking Dow Jones throughout the day.

When risk perception increases, on fears of systemic economical crisis (Feb's Chinese selloff) or geopolitical instability (Mid-East rumors), investors all over the word scramble to sell their shares in the stock market and go all the way to sell their carry trades positions.

It's the "trade first, ask later". If you see the carry trades being unwound fast and furious, jump off and start searching for news. you are going to find them
  • #379
  • May 13, 2007 9:59pm May 13, 2007 9:59pm
Quoting cesarnc
Carry trades (as GJ, EJ, etc) are RISK RELATED pairs. As well as the stock market, where Dow Jones is the leading indicator (although many says S&P 500 would be better).

One of the most popular ways of flowing cash to the stock market is via borrowing Yen at cheap interest rates. So it is common to see GJ chart mimiking Dow Jones throughout the day.

When risk perception increases, on fears of systemic economical crisis (Feb's Chinese selloff) or geopolitical instability (Mid-East rumors), investors all over the word scramble to sell their shares in the stock market and go all the way to sell their carry trades positions.

It's the "trade first, ask later". If you see the carry trades being unwound fast and furious, jump off and start searching for news. you are going to find them
Found the report, sorry it was USDJPY. It did say that a recent -100 fall in the DOW occurred minutes before the USDJPY reaction. Minutes being the important word if you want to watch out for that sort of thing.
  • #380
  • May 13, 2007 10:11pm May 13, 2007 10:11pm
I may sit the day out today and wait for the market to give me a few more clues. Though cable and GBPJPY were both well supported on last weeks dip, a further clean out of long positions may happen. The reasoning here is mainly weight of positioning.

Events which may turn the tide could be technical (a failure to break back above 2), political (doubts about Brown's suitability as the next PM) and fundamental (a feeling that the cycle of interest rate rises has stalled). I'm still 5 long for 26 pips each. Last 1.9841.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
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