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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #4,421
  • May 10, 2007 9:54am May 10, 2007 9:54am
well in my opinion the downtrend is on its way and the last move up to 239.75 just made a double top... the charts were too much OB, so I go for at least few more hundred pips down...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,422
  • May 10, 2007 9:54am May 10, 2007 9:54am
Quoting ~Shard~
Your buy order got filled. What do you see as your exit point now? And are you looking short term or long term? Thanks in advance for your insight.
Hey shard... Too much talks of UJ at 121.00 and its trend is much clearer, compared to other pairs. Consistent higher highs and higher lows in the broader view.

Cable has unfinished business right below the 9800 figure, after which it is reasonable to expect cable turning around as to go on trading the channel it's in.

So GJ's upside is favoured in the long run.

Dow is correcting via profit taking, not risk aversion. Well, so far nothing explosive hit the market coming from China or Iran, as I know it.
  • #4,423
  • May 10, 2007 9:59am May 10, 2007 9:59am
Thanks - as always, I appreciate your knowledgeable insights and value your opinions.
  • #4,424
  • May 10, 2007 9:59am May 10, 2007 9:59am
Gosh, that was fast
  • #4,425
  • May 10, 2007 10:10am May 10, 2007 10:10am
237.40/50 !! nice observation people!

wow. needed to come edit. under 237.15 and i start to get question marks
  • #4,426
  • May 10, 2007 10:14am May 10, 2007 10:14am
man this was like old times, when i started to trade GY. Just enter sell and after 15 min i am up 40 pips
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,427
  • May 10, 2007 10:15am May 10, 2007 10:15am
13:14 $/JPY now below 120.00 as we are seeing the JPY crosses unwind a little here.

A LITTLE?

Just a couple of hundreds of billions, c'mon...
  • #4,428
  • May 10, 2007 10:22am May 10, 2007 10:22am
Quoting cesarnc
13:14 $/JPY now below 120.00 as we are seeing the JPY crosses unwind a little here.

A LITTLE?

Just a couple of hundreds of billions, c'mon...
He must be the funny dude cesar, he was being sarcastic Anyway I am playing against the trend hoping to scalp back some losses. Pray for me.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #4,429
  • May 10, 2007 10:25am May 10, 2007 10:25am
Quoting Plutonite
He must be the funny dude cesar, he was being sarcastic Anyway I am playing against the trend hoping to scalp back some losses. Pray for me.
hehehe...

Well, all my predictions for the next 2 days came in 20 minutes

At this speed, I won't be surprised if the downside extends even more by late NYC....

and please, do not put you $ in my calls here. I'm trying to build larger term positions. Tiny lots at a time.
  • #4,430
  • May 10, 2007 10:29am May 10, 2007 10:29am
wondering how rally is it back up befour starts again...

curious the 238.60(8th of may close) resistanse. if it dosent stall too long here(till tomorrow).
  • #4,431
  • May 10, 2007 10:46am May 10, 2007 10:46am
Think this might be a nice lead to follow...

I'm off for some time. Shopping, supermarket and cool off

13:43 very little bounce in any of the JPY crosses or the component pairs, suggesting the market remains in liquidation mode. Subsequent downside tests are likely to trigger additioanl stop loss selling. We'd need to see 161.90/162.00 regained in EUR/JPY to signal a shift in the JPY cross liquidation story
  • #4,432
  • May 10, 2007 10:59am May 10, 2007 10:59am
There are news coming, saying that jpy crosses are loosing on carry trade liquidation.

But why. How can a day be the opposite of what should happen.

Ppl will receive more if they get long on gbp jpy but nooo.. sell sell. LoL

Am i missing something? Am i saying non sense because im thinking logical and obvious?
  • #4,433
  • May 10, 2007 11:10am May 10, 2007 11:10am
Quoting Warper
There are news coming, saying that jpy crosses are loosing on carry trade liquidation.

But why. How can a day be the opposite of what should happen.

Ppl will receive more if they get long on gbp jpy but nooo.. sell sell. LoL

Am i missing something? Am i saying non sense because im thinking logical and obvious?
hehe people want more money so they change side when realising that other people starts dumping the money and they want to get on the same party.

Party is more fun when everyone is there. First ones in the party can passout befour the party stops, but the last comer only see drunk waster bastards what can be annoying comppany if not in a same condition.

Coming bit late and party till the end to get best blasting time!
  • #4,434
  • May 10, 2007 11:13am May 10, 2007 11:13am
Are we at the beginning stages of another carry trade sell-off?
  • #4,435
  • May 10, 2007 11:21am May 10, 2007 11:21am
Quoting Warper
There are news coming, saying that jpy crosses are loosing on carry trade liquidation.

But why. How can a day be the opposite of what should happen.

Ppl will receive more if they get long on gbp jpy but nooo.. sell sell. LoL

Am i missing something? Am i saying non sense because im thinking logical and obvious?

well i suppose there were so many buyers on the market that nobody was selling anymore.... and why is it so strange if a retracement happens? even in a carry trade the pair should retrace, it cant go up to 250 straight away... even if it goes to 233 its still normal, just a 38 fib retracement.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #4,436
  • May 10, 2007 11:21am May 10, 2007 11:21am
Quoting southernmind
Are we at the beginning stages of another carry trade sell-off?
nothing is for sure. but good to keeping eyes open how this todays selloff will develope.
  • #4,437
  • May 10, 2007 11:45am May 10, 2007 11:45am
Quoting Mother
hehe people want more money so they change side when realising that other people starts dumping the money and they want to get on the same party.

Party is more fun when everyone is there. First ones in the party can passout befour the party stops, but the last comer only see drunk waster bastards what can be annoying comppany if not in a same condition.

Coming bit late and party till the end to get best blasting time!
I have my beer goggles on...
  • #4,438
  • May 10, 2007 12:24pm May 10, 2007 12:24pm
15:17 Look for USD/JPY to hold onto 119.75 if sold off in Asia..We don't think Asia will have the energy to go nuts with the carry sell off considering its their Friday
  • #4,439
  • May 10, 2007 12:34pm May 10, 2007 12:34pm
What kind of impact can the carry sell off do?

Is this similar scenario as in Feb. when price dropped 600?

Could this happen again?

Quoting cesarnc
15:17 Look for USD/JPY to hold onto 119.75 if sold off in Asia..We don't think Asia will have the energy to go nuts with the carry sell off considering its their Friday

  • #4,440
  • May 10, 2007 12:50pm May 10, 2007 12:50pm
Quoting newjersey24
What kind of impact can the carry sell off do?

Is this similar scenario as in Feb. when price dropped 600?

Could this happen again?
Gosh, no... Not today...

February was the Chinese stock market meltdown, that triggered a worldwide stock selloff, thus carry trades selloff. I think dogs, houses, cars, goldfish, all was sold off on those red days

I can't remember now, but I think some geopolitical rumors appeared in the same period, not sure.

Today's NYSE selloff was said to be related to perception of economical slowdown in the USA. Tomorrow's PPI will help in the scanario and this Friday has all it takes to test the trader's nerves all over the world.

We happened to be the lucky traders who sticked with GBP, that was hit by the the GB news, hit by the 0.25%, then hit by Trichet, US Treasure's Paul, China and USD mixed-to-negative news.... Instead of hitting the dollar, the news hit the stock market.

In the end, GBP was the big looser across the board. Check all GBP pairs.

I fear systemic and geopolitical crisis more in what concerns to carry trades
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