TDA with IMT

GBPUSD
At yesterday's close, D1 moved to the temporary control TF with up bias. At about 02:00 GMT, H4 moved to focus TF. If the ATR continues to be high enough, conservative selling can be done of the counter-trend H4.

H4 has possibly ended a return upswing at a much lower high, leading the way for the current down move to travel significantly lower. However, the current down move could be a mere interruption of the up swing that will travel higher. Therefore, the unfolding of the H1 and H2 as they build the H4/H8 is important to monitor.

In either case, the current bias for beginning today's day trading is down. Looking for rallies on smaller TFs to sell.

Reviewing yesterday's post, as can be seen today, the H4 downswing was merely an interruption of the upswing, and prices traveled higher, building D1 to a higher level. However, H8 has progressed far enough in its cycles that it is now due to fall. Therefore, H1 will be of special interest today to see if it begins the reversal of H4/H8.

GBPUSD
For week 6 of 2023

The MN1 rally continues.

For day trading
W1 is the control TF with down bias.
M1 is the focus TF with down bias.

The severe drop on Friday ended the week with all timeframes from W1 down to M1 down. At the start of the new week, will be monitoring the smallest timeframes for rallies. The strength of the rallies and how far they progress upward through the timeframes will be used to determine whether to buy continuations of the rallies or to sell as a timeframe returns to the bigger down trend.


I stated in this posting on 26 January,

I still hold my views that I posted a while back that unless W1 makes a convincing close above 1.2450, everything from the swing high of 11 December is part of a developing down trend: I have the current upswing as a rally, not an uptrend continuation.
As seen on the W1 chart, there was no close above 1.2450, supporting my view of 11 December onward as a developing down trend on this TF.

I view the MN1 as a rally in a bigger down trend that W1 is building. So I have an expectation that W1 will come further down in this (ill-behaved) pullback phase followed by a return back up to new highs that completes construction of the MN1 rally.
I currently consider that the just closed W1 bar is progressing further down as a down continuation of a down trend on this TF. However, with the rather short-lived swings, it is not yet clear if this will end the MN1 rally as well: Only time will tell.

GBPUSD
For week 7 of 2023

W1 is the control TF with down bias.

With all TFs below W1 down, will be looking for up swings to begin on 1m and progress upward through the TFs. 128m is the next TF in the series that is due to rally, so 16m and 32m will be of special interest when they rally.

As mentioned in post#285, we were looking for rallies to sell this morning, with special interest in the 128m. As seen in the capture, the rallies reached 64m but not 128m, but still gave a sell opportunity of the 64m return down.

As noted yesterday, after the 64m rally and return down, the 128m was next in line to rally. Indeed, it did rally later, and as seen in the capture, the rally was so strong that it continued through the 1024m! Therefore, smaller TFs will now make pullbacks and return up to this big rally.

GBPUSD
As seen on the capture, yesterday's strong rally progressed to the 1D, then late in the day, the returns down for sell continuations began. Thus far, the returns down have progressed through the 512m, so there may be further selling opportunities from the rallies that develop on TFs below 512m.

GBPUSD
For week 8 of 2023

W1 continues as control TF with down bias.

Rallies have progressed through 512m. This is a large enough TF that control can be moved here. Smaller TFs will make down trends to build pullbacks that should provide buying opportunities as they return back up to this 512m.

Currently, 16m down to 2m are building a down swing, making all of these TFs of special interest at the start of the new week.
At the end of trading Friday, 1m completed its down swing and started moving upward.

With these smaller TFs due to cycle into down trends and then return up, it will not be surprising to see larger TFs go into ranging.

Quoting DrDave

Disliked

GBPUSD For week 8 of 2023 Rallies have progressed through 512m. This is a large enough TF that control can be moved here.

Ignored

That is up bias, in case it was not clear.

Quoting DrDave

Disliked

Smaller TFs will make down trends to build pullbacks that should provide buying opportunities as they return back up to this 512m.

Ignored

And here they are . . .


IMT rarely steers me wrong.

Although the bias was stated as up, IMT traders can evaluate the pullbacks for selling opportunities. Waiting for buying opportunies was a sub-optimal strategy today.

GBPUSD
For week 9 of 2023

W2 is control TF with down bias, giving an expectation that selling will continue to be favored. However, being such a large TF, as rallies progress upward through the TFs, buying opportunities will occur in TFs from about 1H and higher.

It is expected that it will take 2-4 months for this W2 down swing to complete. Until then, this down swing is considered to be a down trend continuation.

With all TFs now in down swings, will be looking for opportunities to sell rallies as the new week begins.