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The Swamp

  • #106,121
  • Jan 11, 2023 6:19am Jan 11, 2023 6:19am
Quoting Don96
Small short @ 44 tight stop… would have liked 48… it looks more bullish, higher tf closes below 33 and 22 would be more ideal… {quote} it’s looking flag ish… watching cable and EURGBP
testing Daily open…

Short at b.e watching for closes below
  • #106,122
  • Edited 12:12pm Jan 11, 2023 12:00pm | Edited 12:12pm
EU looks like it has support 073x. It looks like closing an h above 1.0748 is not bearish. Above 0748 bullish, but its not showing bullish strength. I still hope to see 1.0805.5/slip, or 1.1186/slip. Some banks are calling for 1.15xx. It does have a shot at a deep fall 1.0805/slip, with 1.0835 as a R area. 1.0835 is a old point. But I dont rule out above it some to 1.0850s.

Bear side later, or anytime should be confirmed with large closes below 1.0694/1.07. If pa reaches 1.0805, and falls below 1.0694. That may be followed with a decent drop, or even a bear trend.
There is no guarantees pa will reach 1.0805 at a certain moment or ever. But its the closer large algo, 1.1186 is another even larger. Slip wise pa may not be able to get to far from these. 43/52 pips were the last 2 slips on a larger one like 1.1186. Making the slip to 1.1239 in that range. But it may be best to get some bear candles showing topping. Or some other confirmation. The fed has been raising well into this eu rise. The algos dont seem to care about fundis.

1.0805/slip or 1.1186/slip may start a new lower run to .93xx. Since 1.1186 is the larger. Even a large drop from 1.0805 can come back to 1.1186 later. A drop from 1.1186/slip may be the last time here for a while. Anything of it equal size, is well below 1500 pips. Well below 0.93, (0.7992/slip)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,123
  • Jan 11, 2023 12:05pm Jan 11, 2023 12:05pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Pending short at 1.0734 SL 1.0742 TG 1.0275 sounds crazy but those are the trades that hit once or twice a year and make ur whole year
Took the inverse

Long 1.0742 SL 1.0734 TG 1.1332

Ill play it the same way I played the short if I get a little room to run. Gotta get through the big one just above 1.08... Im hoping it acts as a slingshot and I get a little shot in the arm from the number tmmrw.
  • #106,124
  • Jan 11, 2023 12:13pm Jan 11, 2023 12:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
EU looks like it has support 073x. It looks like closing an h above 1.0748 is not bearish. Above 0748 bullish, but its not showing bullish strength. I still hope to see 1.0805.5/slip, or 1.1186/slip. Some banks are calling for 1.15xx. It does have a shot at a deep fall 1.0805/slip, with 1.0835 as a R area. 1.0835 is a old point. But I dont rule out above it some to 1.0850s. Bear side later, or anytime should be confirmed with large closes below 1.0694/1.07. If pa reaches 1.0805, and falls below 1.0694. That may be followed with a decent drop, or...
Yeah we got some hurdles for sure.... This move seems to be broad dollar weakness driven moreso than anything Europe is doing different. Ever since 103.88 gave up the booty the next big quarterly I have is just below the 100 handle.... little hiccups here and there until then, but thats a hell of a drop....

We'll see though... gotta get through that algo cluster in the 1.0800's first... and we need a clean move off this initial flip area.... it could hang here for MUCH longer
  • #106,125
  • Jan 11, 2023 12:33pm Jan 11, 2023 12:33pm
A spike on the 15 min above 0748,, back to 1.0735 support.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,126
  • Jan 11, 2023 12:36pm Jan 11, 2023 12:36pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Yeah we got some hurdles for sure.... This move seems to be broad dollar weakness driven moreso than anything Europe is doing different. Ever since 103.88 gave up the booty the next big quarterly I have is just below the 100 handle.... little hiccups here and there until then, but thats a hell of a drop.... We'll see though... gotta get through that algo cluster in the 1.0800's first... and we need a clean move off this initial flip area.... it could hang here for MUCH longer
Yeah this isn't for a 5 min chart. It may take a few years. The mild winter and low energy prices are helping the ez. Ships full of NG with no demand.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,127
  • Jan 11, 2023 12:43pm Jan 11, 2023 12:43pm
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/u.s....ort-lng-delays

This could help get to 1.0805/slip

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-crimps-demand

This could ease ez inflation some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,128
  • Jan 11, 2023 1:01pm Jan 11, 2023 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yeah this isn't for a 5 min chart. It may take a few years. The mild winter and low energy prices are helping the ez. Ships full of NG with no demand.
Yup, just gotta battle it out at these key inflection points till we get a break. Fundies are for sure supportive of a Euro trading much higher vs the dollar in the mid term...
Remember under Trichet we were working with Fibre in the 1.50s
  • #106,129
  • Edited 4:19pm Jan 11, 2023 1:42pm | Edited 4:19pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Yup, just gotta battle it out at these key inflection points till we get a break. Fundies are for sure supportive of a Euro trading much higher vs the dollar in the mid term... Remember under Trichet we were working with Fibre in the 1.50s
That all ended, just like it begun with early 1970s energy. Now the pendulum has swung back since 2008. In 2008 the U.S. started importing less oil then 2007/1970. The U.S. started domestically producing a net positive in 2008. Just like when it started to produce a negative in 1970. The USD dropped after mostly until 2008. The drop stopped in July 2008. Ever since the eu has made LL. If price was to go back to 1970s levels. The EU may be back to 0.6 handle. But before that may happen. Some genius will find a cheaper abundant energy. We need a real genius like the real Nikola Tesla. At one time not long ago. Watches were winded. Some genius figured a way to use quartz. We need one to find a cheap way to make car batteries.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,130
  • Jan 11, 2023 6:17pm Jan 11, 2023 6:17pm
Quoting gatorinla
EU looks like it has support 073x. It looks like closing an h above 1.0748 is not bearish. Above 0748 bullish, but its not showing bullish strength. I still hope to see 1.0805.5/slip, or 1.1186/slip. Some banks are calling for 1.15xx. It does have a shot at a deep fall 1.0805/slip, with 1.0835 as a R area. 1.0835 is a old point. But I dont rule out above it some to 1.0850s. Bear side later, or anytime should be confirmed with large closes below 1.0694/1.07. If pa reaches 1.0805, and falls below 1.0694. That may be followed with a decent drop, or...
with 13hs before CPI. It looks like 1.0805.5/1.0835 has a good shot before the news release. That light support at 1.0735 has moved to 1.0740/42
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,131
  • Jan 11, 2023 6:36pm Jan 11, 2023 6:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} with 13hs before CPI. It looks like 1.0805.5/1.0835 has a good shot before the news release. That light support at 1.0735 has moved to 1.0740/42
We may see this break in the Asian session.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,132
  • Jan 11, 2023 6:43pm Jan 11, 2023 6:43pm
possible scalp long, off a small double top (1.077x). At 1.0755 eu (add spread)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,133
  • Jan 11, 2023 8:06pm Jan 11, 2023 8:06pm
Microsoft in talks to invest $10 bln in ChatGPT-owner OpenAI, Semafor reports...
https://www.reuters.com/technology/m...or-2023-01-10/
I am who I am
  • #106,134
  • Jan 12, 2023 7:49am Jan 12, 2023 7:49am
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Took the inverse Long 1.0742 SL 1.0734 TG 1.1332 Ill play it the same way I played the short if I get a little room to run. Gotta get through the big one just above 1.08... Im hoping it acts as a slingshot and I get a little shot in the arm from the number tmmrw.
Price was too close before the print... Ticked me out and surged without me.... Will.look towards 1.0850 next
  • #106,135
  • Jan 12, 2023 8:03am Jan 12, 2023 8:03am
Quoting gatorinla
EU looks like it has support 073x. It looks like closing an h above 1.0748 is not bearish. Above 0748 bullish, but its not showing bullish strength. I still hope to see 1.0805.5/slip, or 1.1186/slip. Some banks are calling for 1.15xx. It does have a shot at a deep fall 1.0805/slip, with 1.0835 as a R area. 1.0835 is a old point. But I dont rule out above it some to 1.0850s. Bear side later, or anytime should be confirmed with large closes below 1.0694/1.07. If pa reaches 1.0805, and falls below 1.0694. That may be followed with...
EU PA is in the tall grass. Its reached 1.0805.5/slip zone. Look for topping signs. PA back below 1.07/1.0694 could be very reject bearish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,136
  • Jan 12, 2023 8:55am Jan 12, 2023 8:55am
PA can go to 1.1186/slip or pa can go to 1.0093. A 700 pip reward compared to 1.0805/slip risk. Bears would need to start closing below 1.0694/1.07 with larger closes.

I will post a few minor ones. 1.0093 is the larger closest bear algo above 0.93xx.

The reason for posting is the achieved level at 1.0805. PA was very sluggish to get there. Pa climbed despite unfavorable fundis in higher rates. So that could spring it back to 1.0093. Its going there or 1.1186 next. The sluggish rise to make 1.08 to me, seems like its hard to climb.

Only a fool will call a top. This has the potential top. Since its reached 1.0805.

The slip in the last 2 ranged from 43/5x pips.. I used 1.0875 as a stop
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,137
  • Jan 12, 2023 9:07am Jan 12, 2023 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
PA can go to 1.1186/slip or pa can go to 1.0093. A 700 pip reward compared to 1.0805/slip risk. Bears would need to start closing below 1.0694/1.07 with larger closes. I will post a few minor ones. 1.0093 is the larger closest bear algo above 0.93xx. The reason for posting is the achieved level at 1.0805. PA was very sluggish to get there. Pa climbed despite unfavorable fundis in higher rates. So that could spring it back to 1.0093. Its going there or 1.1186 next. The sluggish rise to make 1.08 to me, seems like its hard to climb....
Major support for large close 1.0694/1.07.. Different brokers have different settings. Below 1.0694 closes for bears is better. Above 1.07 better for bulls support. PA is above 1.07 atm. Be mindful this is the bullish side. Stops are a must.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,138
  • Jan 12, 2023 9:11am Jan 12, 2023 9:11am
large green candle on the 30 min, has been engulfed by the 2 following red ones. PA went back below news release.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #106,139
  • Jan 12, 2023 11:05am Jan 12, 2023 11:05am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Major support for large close 1.0694/1.07.. Different brokers have different settings. Below 1.0694 closes for bears is better. Above 1.07 better for bulls support. PA is above 1.07 atm. Be mindful this is the bullish side. Stops are a must.
Im only holding my macro long position on Fibre after getting stopped out

1.0850/1.0888/1.0916 create a big wall for me to trade into or off of….

But youre right, this is the bullish side, and gaps through big levels with little or no pushback are common…

Ill be looking for basing under key inflection points and putting on my breakout trader hat as we through zones
  • #106,140
  • Jan 12, 2023 12:19pm Jan 12, 2023 12:19pm
slip range near surpassed. the last 2 similar moves of 43-60 pips. 1.0866.5 was on the higher slip range. 1.0805.5 + .0060. 1.0866.5.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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