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The Swamp

  • #101,761
  • Jun 27, 2022 5:10am Jun 27, 2022 5:10am
fyi
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  • #101,762
  • Jun 27, 2022 5:59am Jun 27, 2022 5:59am
It into 4h R, its into day R 0594, its into week R 0610, Its into 0835.5 Mid (blue line), If it runs past these. Using this with the short bias of COT. Bulls don't seem to care. But its here, and only time can answer now. If it don't swing down from here (box), I'm wrong.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,763
  • Jun 27, 2022 6:21am Jun 27, 2022 6:21am
The 3 large levels here are probably 1.0835. This from eu conception in the making. The low a few years back 1.0339 to 1.0835 mid is 0587 (this years low places that number a little higher than 0587) . Below where pa is now depending on broker sits 0520 or 0506. Pa didn't give a LL this time. If it closes below 0887, 0520/0506, and 0421. That should be very bearish.
But below 0835, and above the others leaves room for more bull influence. Probably with the fundis bearish to grind on the others. Probably side ways to range. Until it breaks. 1.1, 09xx, 08xx/03xx sideways consolidation.

Closing below 0587 is probably more bearish than below 0835 alone. These numbers may not be on the masses charts. But somebody is using them who has a lot of influence.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,764
  • Jun 27, 2022 6:45am Jun 27, 2022 6:45am
I could be wrong about falling.. R/R wise. A fall from 0587 to 1/2 of the low about 1.0350. Is 1.0468ish. The risk could be calculated for a stop loss. In a percentage of the reward. If the reward is 118 pips. 10 to 25% of the reward seems like a good risk. Its not just you. You are betting with the smart guys, trading for the hedge funds. Your price here, is better than theirs.

This is not a bad place to use your usual indis. Not what I wrote. Just a place to see if your normal trading methods, want you to short. Those could have confluence with COT. There's no guarantee they will be right. The more confluence, the better the chances.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,765
  • Jun 27, 2022 6:53am Jun 27, 2022 6:53am
Quoting gatorinla
I could be wrong about falling.. R/R wise. A fall from 0587 to 1/2 of the low about 1.0350. Is 1.0468ish. The risk could be calculated for a stop loss. In a percentage of the reward. If the reward is 118 pips. 10 to 25% of the reward seems like a good risk. Its not just you. You are betting with the smart guys, trading for the hedge funds. Your price here, is better than theirs. This is not a bad place to use your usual indis. Not what I wrote. Just a place to see if your normal trading methods, want you to short. Those could have confluence with...
Made my daily by shorting Eur.. I may stop here and done for the day , unless this bounces to 0580s again...
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  • #101,766
  • Jun 27, 2022 6:57am Jun 27, 2022 6:57am
Quoting Boulder
fyi {image}
maybe support there..
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  • #101,767
  • Jun 27, 2022 6:58am Jun 27, 2022 6:58am
Quoting gatorinla
I could be wrong about falling.. R/R wise. A fall from 0587 to 1/2 of the low about 1.0350. Is 1.0468ish. The risk could be calculated for a stop loss. In a percentage of the reward. If the reward is 118 pips. 10 to 25% of the reward seems like a good risk. Its not just you. You are betting with the smart guys, trading for the hedge funds. Your price here, is better than theirs. This is not a bad place to use your usual indis. Not what I wrote. Just a place to see if your normal trading methods, want you to short. Those could have confluence with...
On the long side.. Look at the month charts.. Its near suicidal with COT (Cot is short biased) to long.. Here is the thing. If it goes back to 0468ish again. Its about 128 pips from a LL. If you figure you want to risk 1% on a long from down there. The closer to 0339, your 1% risk gets a larger position size, at the same 1% risk. So your reward potential grows at the same risk. The R/R is not so bad. The most you set yourself to lose is the 1%. Of course some of you will risk entire accounts and rent money. But those are gamblers. A trader can look for confluence that enhances the R/R. Not just a blind long. And if the low holds, and the month closes above 0421. It has a shot at 0587 and or 0835. On the way up. You can look for retrace support entries. Or just go to sleep for a few weeks.

Or if the low does break, Take the loss knowing you had good R/R.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,768
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:05am Jun 27, 2022 7:05am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} maybe support there.. {image}
0450ish is in the zone.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,769
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:08am Jun 27, 2022 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
6 to 1 longs closed over shorts {image}
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  • #101,770
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:11am Jun 27, 2022 7:11am
my 1h is still bullish.. 15min turned bearish
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,771
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:16am Jun 27, 2022 7:16am
I don't trade JPY pairs.. if you want.. here is CITI call

Citi || going short EURJPY We are going short EURJPY at 142,55 with a minimum target of 137.85-138.20 and a possible extension towards the 200-day MA at 132.54. We are using 20% of capital with a stop loss at 144.30

On the EURJPY chart we have seen o A potential double top form o A shorter term double top complete o A very clear evening star formation complete o A small bounce back today holding good ST resistance
  • #101,772
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:17am Jun 27, 2022 7:17am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} {image} {image}
I'm looking for chf/yen. Looking for topping signs.. Maybe another push up before. Its has to be getting close.. I think a few k's of drop will be forced. I like to get 1k of those.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,773
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:18am Jun 27, 2022 7:18am
Quoting Boulder
I don't trade JPY pairs.. if you want.. here is CITI call Citi || going short EURJPY We are going short EURJPY at 142,55 with a minimum target of 137.85-138.20 and a possible extension towards the 200-day MA at 132.54. We are using 20% of capital with a stop loss at 144.30 On the EURJPY chart we have seen o A potential double top form o A shorter term double top complete o A very clear evening star formation complete o A small bounce back today holding good ST resistance
The chf is probably the better one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,774
  • Edited 7:38am Jun 27, 2022 7:23am | Edited 7:38am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The chf is probably the better one.
I only trade Eur.. maybe gold.. stay away from others.. plenty money can be made by just focusing one or two pairs.
  • #101,775
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:56am Jun 27, 2022 7:56am
Quoting gatorinla
my 1h is still bullish.. 15min turned bearish {image}
1h is still fighting..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,776
  • Jun 27, 2022 7:59am Jun 27, 2022 7:59am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I only trade Eur.. maybe gold.. stay away from others.. plenty money can be made by just focusing one or two pairs.
I put those as set and forget.. I was trying for 142.11.. This is a day chart.. I missed atm.. Just a small position with a 2000 pip tp. I think it may be tired. Or it can swing to 145.xx..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,777
  • Jun 27, 2022 10:16am Jun 27, 2022 10:16am
Quoting gatorinla
It into 4h R, its into day R 0594, its into week R 0610, Its into 0835.5 Mid (blue line), If it runs past these. Using this with the short bias of COT. Bulls don't seem to care. But its here, and only time can answer now. If it don't swing down from here (box), I'm wrong. {image}
Bulls haven't stopped yet.. Into day R now.. Week 0610 My 15 30 min is now bullish. No signs of bears atm. ADR on the high side at 0647. atm low side 0499. Bears have been road kill so far.

Last week I wanted pa to test 0627/42. At least before COT. i should of waited.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,778
  • Jun 27, 2022 10:38am Jun 27, 2022 10:38am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} Closed 0576 with 10 pips loss. It closed 12h above 0571. It may continue to rise some. This week is Q end.
I have 0629, 0642, 0651 above as R. Day close above 0651 and maybe 0642 can open doors for 0699/0716. 0410 is still on the cards. Volatile...
It can go either way from here. atm, bulls have the upper hand but they can be stopped around 0642/51. If it drop now, 0571 may support.
Trade to enjoy... Money is after!
  • #101,779
  • Jun 27, 2022 11:05am Jun 27, 2022 11:05am
Quoting saninvestor
{quote} I have 0629, 0642, 0651 above as R. Day close above 0651 and maybe 0642 can open doors for 0699/0716. 0410 is still on the cards. Volatile... It can go either way from here. atm, bulls have the upper hand but they can be stopped around 0642/51. If it drop now, 0571 may support.
I got a week fib at 0609. maybe something at 0617. This area is close enough to 0627 last leg support/ now R to me. Bulls look strong. Bulls need to continue. Bulls can get a reject here. COT made me get in 50 pips lower than i thought last week. Never a sure thing. I still have some fib r here, The day at 0594. A lot of different stuff in this 0560/0642 range. Its near my uncle s/l.

1h could be a shooting star, it does have a pin bar. The 15 min engulfed. I will close early if i think my stop will be hit. Late Q month pa.. I reduced lot sizes already.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #101,780
  • Jun 27, 2022 11:17am Jun 27, 2022 11:17am
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I think a rejection here at 1.0615 may send it back to 1.0467.
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