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Quoting deanyakobs
{quote}I'm not aware that the MM change or recalibrate his INTENT direction on certain target..
There is what Steve Mauro calls it a "Reset". The MM cycle is not one dimensional. You can expect some reset or recalibrate.
  • Post #1,902
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  • Edited Jun 26, 6:25am Jun 26, 5:53am (10 hr ago) | Edited Jun 26, 6:25am
Quoting Rmg
How do you determine the targets or what is the secret behind algo math targets? care to share?
Hi Rmg, last year I tried to introduce this idea about fx market valuation and I failed. Let me try to explain this the correct way.

Fx is priced based on the fair value of the currency pair. Price will trade inside this upper and lower range of this fair value. "George" targets are candlesticks that test this upper lower range. So, in general targets visually mark the value range.

It's not difficult to identify targets.
However, we read on this thread and all George's thread this problem how to identify which target ?
And how to know if market will "grind" past these targets ?

Since targets mark the upper lower range of current fair value we have to know the intent of the market when it move toward these targets - whether market will recalibrate or return to fair value. And which target(upper or lower) ?

This means it comes down to this single question of intent. Intent tells us the target and what it decides to do.

The simplest indicator of intent is whether market trades above or below the open line. Market trades above open line means rising value(top target) and market trades below open line means falling value(bottom target). If you are an intraday trader, the wol(current and last week) and dol(today and yesterday) are important. The analysis involve few open lines and top/bottom targets.

For intraweek traders, the mol(current and last month) and wol(current and last week) are important.

Take note of the volatility as a percentage of atr. The current price in your trading session expressed as a percentage of atr. This helps us to estimate the possible future market expansion.

We have to remember there's macro fair value and micro fair value - the concept of fractals.

For intraday traders, wol measures macro and dol measures micro value.
For intraweek traders, mol measures macro and wol measures micro value.

This is the general idea of value determination. The algo math is derived from this basic model.

edit - price "grinds" because market is recalibrating the macro fair value.
  • Post #1,903
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  • Edited Jun 26, 6:20am Jun 26, 5:59am (10 hr ago) | Edited Jun 26, 6:20am
GU as a working example.

GU traded in a narrow weekly range between last wol and target2. Price was congested, the reason is found in GEfx post.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14044448

Notice the tight high low range of (Tues to Fri dol) marked by the blue box.

Friday market, price traded above dol. Look left yesterday, price traded below dol and rejected from low target2 in line with BOE monetary policy, and rejected from wol. Intent is clear market will not trade below dol. But it will not trade above recents highs given the uncertainty of BOE's resolve with rate setting. Giving a narrow 56% adr for Friday with minimal gain.

edit - compare the difference when the market recalibrated for us30.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...2#post14044672
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Quoting BWilliam
{quote} Hi Rmg, last year I tried to introduce this idea about fx market valuation and I failed. Let me try to explain this the correct way. Fx is priced based on the fair value of the currency pair. Price will trade inside this upper and lower range of this fair value. "George" targets are candlesticks that test this upper lower range. So, in general targets visually mark the value range. It's not difficult to identify targets. However, we read on this thread and all George's thread this problem how to identify which target ? And how to know if...
I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs.

Thanks for your explanations BW.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let it go...
Quoting Rmg
{quote}I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs. Thanks for your explanations BW. {image}

did you calculate these purple lines beforehand...?!
Quoting Onra
{quote} did you calculate these purple lines beforehand...?!
Just the prior sessions H/L
Let it go...
  • Post #1,907
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  • Edited Jun 26, 12:57pm Jun 26, 12:46pm (4 hr ago) | Edited Jun 26, 12:57pm
Quoting Rmg
{quote}I use prior session H/l to determine the intent...in this case beautiful chart patterns on 1 min showed clear intent ...took some heavy longs. Thanks for your explanations BW. {image}
Interesting. I added George's Targets plus BWilliam's Intent plus Bilal's Break of Structure (refined according to my observations) before he went deep into ICT plus Moodybot's Peak Formation (with some Steve Mauro) and I got similar results of which are making me go crazy with more chart time of testing (back-testing and demo testing). At the same time I'm absorbing CrucialPoint's knowledge (also interestingly that was the first name I got familiar with or used to see when I joined FF and it turns out to carry some weight).

Edit: The Intent was shown prior to those moves with the arrows. Those were confirmations.
Quoting Rmg
{quote} Just the prior sessions H/L
Uhh...; I assume that are the white lines..; right?
Quoting Pumi
{quote} Interesting. I added George's Targets plus BWilliam's Intent plus Bilal's Break of Structure (refined according to my observations) before he went deep into ICT plus Moodybot's Peak Formation (with some Steve Mauro) and I got similar results of which are making me go crazy with more chart time of testing (back-testing and demo testing). At the same time I'm absorbing CrucialPoint's knowledge (also interestingly that was the first name I got familiar with or used to see when I joined FF and it turns out to carry some weight).

Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple;
yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
Quoting Onra
Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple; yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
Hi Onra, if you check my post history I wrote many times I can do it on my phone. That's the hint.

The reason why most people miss it is because they can't believe it's so simple. I've read enough comments on FF to know this mindset. I've written many times don't over-complicate, don't over-sophisticate. Too bad people are naturally attracted to sophisticated data and indicators.
Quoting Onra
{quote} Strange that this secret core principle we're after, is supposed to be very simple; yet it seems to take years of reading, rereading, puzzling and combining...
I just gave you a direction. Study this thread, and pay more attention on the week of 6 June 2022 and go through both of George's threads (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...core-tma-intra? and https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members?).

BWilliam has posted some information on George's last thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...family-members?). Go through Bilal (https://www.forexfactory.com/bilal1947) and CrucialPoint's (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...arters-request) threads (again BWilliam posted some reference to these threads on George's last thread , this thread and Moodybot's Real or Algo thread (https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/992929-real-or-algo?). There is some wealth of information on these threads)

You can also go through BWilliam's posts/replies (unfortunately some very important ones were deleted).

I'm not promoting anyone here but if you can go through the list of my subscriptions you can learn a lot from these members.
  • Post #1,912
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  • Last Post: Jun 26, 1:59pm (2 hr 47 min ago) Jun 26, 1:59pm (2 hr 47 min ago)
Quoting BWilliam
GU as a working example. GU traded in a narrow weekly range between last wol and target2. Price was congested, the reason is found in GEfx post. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post14044448 Notice the tight high low range of (Tues to Fri dol) marked by the blue box. Friday market, price traded above dol. Look left yesterday, price traded below dol and rejected from low target2 in line with BOE monetary policy, and rejected from wol. Intent is clear market will not trade below dol. But it will not trade above recents...
Great charts BW and the context you have laid out can be successfully traded with simple PA knowledge techniques.

It simply amazes me the power of the DOL WOL highs lows sessions etc. They are the main guts of "the program" IMO...and everything can be calculated off of them. I know for a fact as I have figured out a daily trade on the US indices that has a probability higher than 90%. which presents itself almost every single day. All based on a specific times high and low. So absolutely 100% the quants algos are trading it.

And NO !!!Volume is not even part of the equation lol... Date/Time/Price

The GU is certainly an interesting chart at this point. I have sketched up a few higher tf charts with a particular long range target of 1.28 on the button.
GU may very well continue its downtrend....but I like what I am seeing on the Daily and weekly and need to see a BO of the Daily/Weekly IBs to the upside and perhaps I will trade and document with screenshots this possible swing setup if it develops. If not.. nothing ventured nothing gained !!

Cheers
Blue
The Best Loser Wins
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