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Quoting sagar1983
{quote} I go to D and zoom out till I can see about 2/3 years history ONLY, reason being I'm not interested in what PA did decades ago. Recent PA is more important to analyze present PA. I go beyond only when D does not give you any clarity or it is beyond MT4 terminal, as the case now with GU / EU and EU. Observe the relation of PPA with TDI oscillator. I'm not that keen on TSL (traders signal line) in TDI, only Oscillator in TDI. I might again go beyond D if oscillator is way above / below 80/20 levels. I have added 80 and 20 levels for my personal...
Thank you. Some homework for the weekend! I know most of the acronyms you use, but not PPA or TTF. And is KPL "Key Price Level"? Just thinking, maybe PPA is a typo and you meant simply PA?
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thank you. Some homework for the weekend! I know most of the acronyms you use, but not PPA or TTF. And is KPL "Key Price Level"? Just thinking, maybe PPA is a typo and you meant simply PA?
KPL - Key Price Level
PPA - Present PA, compared to Previous PA / KPL
TTF - Trading TF.

Cheers
  • Post #563
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:19am May 20, 2022 7:03am | Edited at 7:19am
Quoting sagar1983
{quote} I go to D and zoom out till I can see about 2/3 years history ONLY, reason being I'm not interested in what PA did decades ago. Recent PA is more important to analyze present PA. I go beyond only when D does not give you any clarity or it is beyond MT4 terminal, as the case now with GU / EU and EU. Observe the relation of PPA with TDI oscillator. I'm not that keen on TSL (traders signal line) in TDI, only Oscillator in TDI. I might again go beyond D if oscillator is way above / below 80/20 levels. I have added 80 and 20 levels for my personal...
I've spent the last hour reading through your post and seeing how it relates to the charts. Very useful, thank you. I also tried to correlate it with what I
am more familiar with. This chart refers. It is a daily chart, which is the TF where you do your homework over the weekend. I have identified a buy-only area as revealed by the GMMAs. So to follow your example, but using the Guppy approach, I should move up to the daily TFs on all my charts and look for such a breakout and trend establishment, and use that to set my bias for the week and probably beyond in most cases.

It's a matter of being patient and waiting for these lovely trends, not chasing them. And they do appear all over the place. I have also attached two scripts that I have found very useful - moving up or down TFs is quick and easy with the SyncTimeFrames one and the other allows me to apply a template to all charts.
Attached File
File Type: ex4 SyncTimeFrames.ex4   5 KB | 23 downloads
Attached File
File Type: ex4 ApplyTemplateToAllCharts.ex4   5 KB | 24 downloads
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  • Post #564
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:42am May 20, 2022 7:24am | Edited at 7:42am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I've spend the last hour reading through your post and seeing how it relates to the charts. Very useful, thank you. I also tried to correlate it with what I am more familiar with. This chart refers. It is a daily chart, which is the TF where you do your homework over the weekend. I have identified a buy-only area as revealed by the GMMAs. So to follow your example, I should move up to the daily TFs on all my charts and look for such a breakout and trend establishment, and use that to set my bias for the week and probably beyond in most cases....
Can i advise 1 more small home work? Remove LT EMA's also, plant line charts (they won't have wicks), draw KPL's.
Trend will be clearly visible with KPL's, decision making will be easier as well.
With your experience, you should also know, every MA, including Guppy EMA's are PA driven not other way oriented.
Draw KPL's, observe candlestick patterns supporting your bull / bear bias, towards next KPL and then take Guppy and TDI help as a support.
Be fluid in your defined boundaries.
Cheers
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spudfan sir, use ma in color. analysis becomes very easy.
Few general rules that I follow.
1. Trade only when at least 1 exchange of a pair is open. Otherwise, pair will not have enough liquidity / volume in the market. For example, how can we expect, say, USDCAD to have any liquidity during Tokyo, when both US and Canada exchanges are not working. Go through history of any pair, you will realize what I’m talking about.
2. Do not trade any pair, which has red news, due in less than 6-8 hours, do not be on the road, when weatherman forecasts a thunderstorm.
3. DO NOT TRADE AGAINST MY BIAS, God will not respect our prayers / wishes / hopes, after we trade as he has already blessed us to think before we trade.
4. Find minimum 3 reasons / rules to enter a trade, more rules and reasons, stronger will be the trade, disaster if less than 3 reasons.
5. Define the risk/s, let the market decide the reward.
6. Number of pips is always over emphasized. Always think in terms of USD, green buck always smells sexy.
7. Run from any trader / expert, who uses “I Think / feel” in his trading dictionary. 7 trillion $ market does not dance to their tunes. Simplest Mantra is “WHAT DO I SEE, WHAT DOES IT MEAN, And WHAT DO I DO?”
8. Trading is all about AAA, Accept a Trade-able set up, Analyze the Risk and Act (trade or wait).
9. Planning to win each and every trade puts enormous pressure on our Psyche and pressure is never great for a trader. Think about positive balance sheet at weekend and month end, month after month.
10. Do not ever hear / read what others talk about any pair, their bias will influence our own bias / analysis. Shakira is wrong. Hips might lie, CHARTS DO NOT LIE.
11. Live as if you die next minute, but LEARN AS IF YOU LIVE FOREVER.
12. More, when I can think of jolting down.
Cheers
I have noticed that many of the NZD and AUS pairs appear to be bottoming and might be turning. The GMMAs have not realigned yet so on most of them I have the word WAIT in large letters reminding me not to get too excited! In this example I am expecting a correction and will wait for that before I consider entering this market.

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Quoting Spudfan
I have noticed that many of the NZD and AUS pairs appear to be bottoming and might be turning. The GMMAs have not realigned yet so on most of them I have the word WAIT in large letters reminding me not to get too excited! In this example I am expecting a correction and will wait for that before I consider entering this market. {image}
Dear Spudfan, If China sneezes, Aussie and Kiwi get cold flu as they have biggest export exposure to China.
With so much (worse) happening in China, cities getting locked down, unemployment climbing up, exports getting hit, gdp coming down, Xi Ping fighting to hold on to power, QUAD meet (China being a big topic of discussion) right now, my sincere advice is to (just like you, in capital) STAY AWAY FROM AUSSIE AND KIWI.
My 2 cents though.
Cheers
I caught most of yesterday's breakout and took my profit right at the eventual close of the third red candle. The Asian session provided for a correction and this morning I'm hoping to catch the next breakout, if it happens, that is.

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  • Post #570
  • Quote
  • Edited at 3:16am May 24, 2022 2:33am | Edited at 3:16am
Nice breakout coming soon? The consolidation area is pulling tighter and the EMAs are closely packed.

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trading in demo account. Guppy system H1 chart
short on usdchf
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green line entry
red lines SL and TP

as it is demo will wait for either to hit
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} I have worked out what I was attempting here and I have an analogy for it. A ladder has side rails and rungs or steps. It doesn't work if either of these are missing. The GMMAs are like the side rails - very useful for identifying a trend and the reliability of that trend as it progresses. But, as already discussed earlier in this thread, Daryl Guppy did not give any guidance on the specifics of entering or exiting trades. The Walkvekar method is an excellent solution to this. It adds the rungs to some very good side rails. My little diversion...
When I went on my "little diversion" last Monday, trying to trade using signals only without the trend guidance provided by the GMMAs, it taught me a useful lesson. Since then I have played it cautiously, waiting until the GMMAs were aligned and a trend was properly in place. In the six trading days since then I have made 7.5% profit on account balance. It’s about patience and waiting until the conditions are right before attempting to trade. Sagar’s comments about the homework he does over the weekend to set a bias helped reinforce that lesson. I realised that I have been trying these last few months to push the boundaries, trying to get into a trend early instead of patiently waiting until a trend was truly in place. Of course, I do know this, we all do, it’s just a matter of being disciplined about it and being patient. Simple, really!

Thanks to all who have helped me stay on the right track!
Quoting walvekarraje
trading in demo account. Guppy system H1 chart short on usdchf{image} green line entry red lines SL and TP as it is demo will wait for either to hit
I can not say much about Guppy as I'm yet to understand and master it in depth.
But, per my trading rules, its NO entry at all.
Price is in real consolidation mode. London 1st candle, bearish, 2nd candle big bullish (almost bullish engulfing). 3rd candle, copy book hammer, indicating price will go up. 4th candle, bearish again, price not going anywhere. Big time indecision.
Look left, same thing happened, day before during London and price / structure repeats itself.
No trade till the consolidation zone is broken, either of the side.
Cheers
Quoting sagar1983
{quote} I can not say much about Guppy as I'm yet to understand and master it in depth. But, per my trading rules, its NO entry at all. Price is in real consolidation mode. London 1st candle, bearish, 2nd candle big bullish (almost bullish engulfing). 3rd candle, copy book hammer, indicating price will go up. 4th candle, bearish again, price not going anywhere. Big time indecision. Look left, same thing happened, day before during London and price / structure repeats itself. No trade till the consolidation zone is broken, either of the side. Cheers...
I was in both a USDCHF and a USDCAD trade yesterday. The former did well and luckily I got out of the latter manually at breakeven. It is clear from these two charts why the one worked and the other didn't. USDCHF had a steep slope (and thus price was mostly outside of the 10 EMA channel), while USDCAD had a much shallower slope and thus price was mostly inside the 10 EMA channel. Comparing the two side-by-side shows this difference powerfully.

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I've just noticed something interesting - clear divergence on USDCAD. I have very seldom looked at or used divergence, but if it is a thing then we should expect a bullish breakout.
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I have a question for the experienced traders. How does the release of the FOMC minutes affect your trading on that day? Looking forward to your replies!
  • Post #577
  • Quote
  • Edited at 10:16pm May 25, 2022 9:07pm | Edited at 10:16pm
Quoting Spudfan
I have a question for the experienced traders. How does the release of the FOMC minutes affect your trading on that day? Looking forward to your replies!
I wait for next day Tokyo (today) to open, analyze how the different currencies have acted / reacted to the news. Trade from Tokyo open, trade those pairs, which are least affected from the news, less riskier. I trust in "Live for another day", protect your equity to make profit when situations become clearer and profitable.
Cheers
Quoting sagar1983
{quote} I wait for next day Tokyo (today) to open, analyze how the different currencies have acted / reacted to the news. Trade from Tokyo open, trade those pairs, which are least affected from the news, less riskier. I trust in "Live for another day", protect your equity to make profit when situations become clearer and profitable. Cheers
Thanks, Sagar. It's now 8 am where I am, 3 pm in Tokyo, so for me I guess the markets would have settled and new patterns would be emerging right now, just before the London open.

What do you do in the 8 or so hours before the release of the FOMC minutes? Is it a big enough event to remain out of the market, or do you avoid just certain pairs, or do you ignore it and carry on as normal?
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Thanks, Sagar. It's now 8 am where I am, 3 pm in Tokyo, so for me I guess the markets would have settled and new patterns would be emerging right now, just before the London open. What do you do in the 8 or so hours before the release of the FOMC minutes? Is it a big enough event to remain out of the market, or do you avoid just certain pairs, or do you ignore it and carry on as normal?
I just shorted GJ now, 44 pips target. With $ Prelim gdp news in 6 hours, want to get few pips and stay away from the market.
Not just FOMC, I'M SIDELINES 6-8 hours before any hot news event/s.
But except for, FOMC / NFP, I trade other pairs. For eg, when UK announces employment change (claimant count change), I stay away from GBP pairs, but trade other pairs. But FOMC and NFP, strictly no trades, because they affect whole gamut of currencies.
Cheers
Quoting Spudfan
Nice breakout coming soon? The consolidation area is pulling tighter and the EMAs are closely packed. {image}
We're still in this consolidation but the boundary lines are tightening, so a breakout must happen at some time.

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