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Trading the Cable swings via averages

  • #7,921
  • May 22, 2022 10:50am May 22, 2022 10:50am
Hi mentor , happy weekend , i have a question how can i backtest the method i really want this on weekends , any method you suggest for backtesting?
  • #7,922
  • May 23, 2022 12:49am May 23, 2022 12:49am
Well the 1 hour has finally made it to the next average swing high but it has done so in divergence so I would be looking to short this on the lower time frames.

If it breaks through and goes above we may get stopped out for a small amount as it tries to make any of the two AB =CD's. Getting stopped out for the small amount allows us to reconsider our options and win our money back plus our profit.
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  • #7,923
  • May 23, 2022 12:51am May 23, 2022 12:51am
Stop press it just pushed through and made it out of div so the AB = CD may be on the cards.

Little bit early for me to trade yet.
  • #7,924
  • May 23, 2022 8:17am May 23, 2022 8:17am
Quoting Nala66
Stop press it just pushed through and made it out of div so the AB = CD may be on the cards. Little bit early for me to trade yet.
Hi mentor today i purchase a diary of trading and i want to write all rules of this method , what to skip and what to keep in mind when day start , can you pleas give a brief on note on this i will write same on my diary
  • #7,925
  • May 24, 2022 1:09am May 24, 2022 1:09am
Taking its sweet time getting there
Still there are plenty of ten pippers to be had....
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  • #7,926
  • May 24, 2022 1:10am May 24, 2022 1:10am
Quoting yahya11
{quote} Hi mentor today i purchase a diary of trading and i want to write all rules of this method , what to skip and what to keep in mind when day start , can you pleas give a brief on note on this i will write same on my diary
What rules and what method?
  • #7,927
  • May 24, 2022 1:15am May 24, 2022 1:15am
I don't have rules I simply look for the most logical direction and the signals that may take it there.

Very often there are counter signals which we cannot ignore making it difficult to score all our pips in one trade. The work around for this is hedging.

Once price reaches my assumed target I start to look for the counter in the opposite direction
  • #7,928
  • May 24, 2022 3:38am May 24, 2022 3:38am
Very nice I shorted that HD on the hour and made 2%
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  • #7,929
  • May 24, 2022 3:45am May 24, 2022 3:45am
By the way it was a HD on the 4 hour also but nobody told me.????
  • #7,930
  • May 24, 2022 3:49am May 24, 2022 3:49am
Didn't put the HD indicator onto the chart. I was hoping the ABCD can complete and it took out my demo account..
  • #7,931
  • May 24, 2022 4:05am May 24, 2022 4:05am
Quoting Nala66
Very nice I shorted that HD on the hour and made 2% {image}
bear divergence on m5 also
  • #7,932
  • May 24, 2022 4:07am May 24, 2022 4:07am
Quoting wilyno
Didn't put the HD indicator onto the chart. I was hoping the ABCD can complete and it took out my demo account..
As I have said, never trust a target, they are only assumptions.

Didn't you move your stop to BE?
  • #7,933
  • May 24, 2022 4:55am May 24, 2022 4:55am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} As I have said, never trust a target, they are only assumptions. Didn't you move your stop to BE?
Didn't set SL. Was loading up when the price dips in anticipation of the abcd completion This is a good lesson not to be so fixated on abcd target. Fortunately i was on demo.
  • #7,934
  • May 24, 2022 6:54am May 24, 2022 6:54am
Is this ABCD correctly identified, everyone?
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  • #7,935
  • May 24, 2022 10:46pm May 24, 2022 10:46pm
Quoting inktech
Is this ABCD correctly identified, everyone? {image}
Almost but I have it a tad different.

A is chosen because it was a pivot not in divergence which the following ones were,
B is chosen because it was the next pivot under attack on the opposite side of the EMA, in other words in divergence.
C is correct being the close across the EMA
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  • #7,936
  • May 24, 2022 11:04pm May 24, 2022 11:04pm
Now as I said yesterday the 4 hour was in a HD and a div should return the price to the EMA.

So if we drop to the 1 hour we see the Blue EMA being the 4 hour 26 period was indeed hit.

Now I was asked about rules, the problem is that rules are broken all the time so we should consider them as something less than a rule as such, lets call them possible reactions or PR's. So a divergence may have a PR of returning price to the EMA. An ABCD may have a PR of hitting D and the same for an AB = CD.

A PR could also be an average swing high/low price may be targeting or even a Daily pivot level, or a fib level. These are common targets for price as they strive to pull the EMA to make HH's or LL's.

Remember always these are possible reactions not written in stone and may be met with counter reactions CR's making trading the difficult task it is.

Remember your first law of motion, For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

This is why we employ stops and move them as required ever diminishing the risk of missing these CR's.

Hope this helps to clarify the so called rules.
  • #7,937
  • May 24, 2022 11:23pm May 24, 2022 11:23pm
My 1 hour chart is looking a tad messy at this time with 3 potential targets.

Look closely and you should see the EMA is making HH's and HL's continuing the uptrend. This is how I define a trend, not what price is doing but what the EMA is doing. For the EMA to keep making these HH's price must also do the same.
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  • #7,938
  • May 25, 2022 1:13am May 25, 2022 1:13am
Higher time frames sitting around their EMA's we need a break...
  • #7,939
  • May 25, 2022 1:18am May 25, 2022 1:18am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Almost but I have it a tad different. A is chosen because it was a pivot not in divergence which the following ones were, B is chosen because it was the next pivot under attack on the opposite side of the EMA, in other words in divergence. C is correct being the close across the EMA {image}
Hi Alan, is there a previous post that illustrate how to plot ABCD and AB=CD?
  • #7,940
  • May 25, 2022 2:35am May 25, 2022 2:35am
Quoting wilyno
{quote} Hi Alan, is there a previous post that illustrate how to plot ABCD and AB=CD?
Yes there is but where I cannot say without taking the time to look it up.

Someone may have notes on this.
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