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The Swamp

  • #93,861
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:15am Dec 23, 2021 6:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} im in short if we reached 1322 but i would like to see also that we close below 1.130
1343 1323 and above shorts could be valuable in the new year.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,862
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:17am Dec 23, 2021 6:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1343 1323 and above shorts could be valuable in the new year.

yes, but seems like it wants to go down now. hard call because of daily still can close above 1.13
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,863
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:01am Dec 23, 2021 7:01am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} yes, but seems like it wants to go down now. hard call because of daily still can close above 1.13
War plans are made before the war is fought. When battles are lost.

Bulls can always regroup to fight 1323 43 again. To be in the war you have to just hold the line. Survive the attacks'. This is where many accounts are lost. The inability to recognize a range. Many keep trend trading the smaller trends. Those trends keep failing in both directions.

The main trend Since June has been lower. Pa has been in a range for the last month plus. . Dynamic on larger tf are near 134x+ is catching up. Real s/r on the month at 1323/43. Bulls need to take that hill and fight the dynamic to hold it. Bears need to beat the smaller week size support. Bulls need to hold above 1323 and 1343 or the dynamic will be below. Bears have taken 159x 1492 1447 1343 1323. Bulls have lost every significant battle atm.
The only sign of life was taken 1323 just before close last month. Closing 1336 between 1323 and 1343. Some volatility over 1323/43 is still possible. It could be fierce. Like it did before closing last month.
The Omicron wildcard to me, caused this. It made the news at Thanksgiving.

The statistics show Covid affects the elderly greater. The EZ has a older population than the U.S. More so it has a 4X greater age over S. Africa. I dont think the good news about hospitalisations in S Africa. Is comparable to U.S. and Europe. I think countries with an older population will fare worse. Japan and Europe may not do as well as forecast. The U.S. has a population a little younger than Europe. The U.S. depends less on tourism than Europe.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,864
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:08am Dec 23, 2021 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} War plans are made before the war is fought. When battles are lost. Bulls can always regroup to fight 1323 43 again. To be in the war you have to just hold the line. Survive the attacks'. This is where many accounts are lost. The inability to recognize a range. Many keep trend trading the smaller trends. Those trends keep failing in both directions. The main trend Since June has been lower. Pa has been in a range for the last month plus. . Dynamic on larger tf are near 134x+ is catching up. Real s/r on the month at 1323/43. Bulls need to...
depends less on tourism all US has less energy cost
i agree with everything you said.

just added a new short.
1H closing above 1.132 would be bulish

of course i also think it's just a range for the next weeek. 20 pips from 1.320 to 1.13 daily support or level is ok for me.

took some of the risk on trades now


GU above 1.34 now
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,865
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:19am Dec 23, 2021 7:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} War plans are made before the war is fought. When battles are lost. Bulls can always regroup to fight 1323 43 again. To be in the war you have to just hold the line. Survive the attacks'. This is where many accounts are lost. The inability to recognize a range. Many keep trend trading the smaller trends. Those trends keep failing in both directions. The main trend Since June has been lower. Pa has been in a range for the last month plus. . Dynamic on larger tf are near 134x+ is catching up. Real s/r on the month at 1323/43. Bulls need to...
The other side of the coin for the bean counters is. Dead people dont take social programs. Such as retirement benefits lifelong healthcare times are shortened. I guess the final cost of Covid. Before death, is a factor. If they had lived, would they have used more social benefits? Than they did dying early. This factor may weigh on either side. On any countries monetary health.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,866
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:23am Dec 23, 2021 7:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} depends less on tourism all US has less energy cost i agree with everything you said. just added a new short. 1H closing above 1.132 would be bulish of course i also think it's just a range for the next weeek. 20 pips from 1.320 to 1.13 daily support or level is ok for me. took some of the risk on trades now GU above 1.34 now
definite. BMW can build cheaper in the U.S. Labor and energy cost is cheaper. Raw materials are cheaper too..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,867
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:31am Dec 23, 2021 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} next, a hh (1342.5+) or 1329, a HH or 1303/04, a HH or 1288. 1 min support at 1337/38.. PA at 1339.5. Something has to give.
missed #3 atm.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,868
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:43am Dec 23, 2021 8:43am
seeing flow on the 1h on the bottom. It may go back to 1323 or 1340x
Attached Image
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  • #93,869
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:06am Dec 23, 2021 11:06am
Quoting gatorinla
seeing flow on the 1h on the bottom. It may go back to 1323 or 1340x {image}
and it did. left with shorts
maybe it gets down

us indices close to new ATH
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,870
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:15am Dec 23, 2021 11:15am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} and it did. left with shorts maybe it gets down us indices close to new ATH
1328.5 could have s/r value now. Pa atm is above 1328.5
Attached Image
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  • #93,871
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:26am Dec 23, 2021 11:26am
Quoting gatorinla
I'm not a BB expert. I think the 6h BB R is at 1338.
I still think this. I think the 12h is at 1346.5. That big R 1343 a little better than 1323. More dynamic R into 1370.. Anywhere above 1323 is subject to R. That may start changing with closes above.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,872
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:44am Dec 23, 2021 11:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I still think this. I think the 12h is at 1346.5. That big R 1343 a little better than 1323. More dynamic R into 1370.. Anywhere above 1323 is subject to R. That may start changing with closes above.
at this point i would be surprised not to see 1.14 over the next week with low liquidity and everybody having their stops there.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #93,873
  • Dec 23, 2021 12:29pm Dec 23, 2021 12:29pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I still think this. I think the 12h is at 1346.5. That big R 1343 a little better than 1323. More dynamic R into 1370.. Anywhere above 1323 is subject to R. That may start changing with closes above.
Some others. 2019 year close (2020 open) is there at (1211.7). The 2020 candle was a large green one (1,125 pips). This current 2021 candle, has a chance to bearish engulf the 2020 candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,874
  • Dec 23, 2021 12:49pm Dec 23, 2021 12:49pm
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} at this point i would be surprised not to see 1.14 over the next week with low liquidity and everybody having their stops there.
In that chart. My 1h trend through 1 min are bullish atm They are worthless into this large R. If pa was above. 1370 they may have more value. But even 1370 is below 1447. Those trends 1470 are down. The Dynamic R above 4h is down to me through 1 month. My guess is bears will continue lower. And January may open sub 1211.. If wrong bulls better take 1447 for Dec close. Down is the trend to me. But Bears need to continue breaking support. I can change my trades. I'm just pointing out R in those post. Anything above this point would be hard to do. -1211 looks better to me. I short R with stingy stops.
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  • #93,875
  • Dec 23, 2021 12:56pm Dec 23, 2021 12:56pm
Those 4h and day Dynamic R is reaching 134x/70. Earlier in this range the dynamic 4h and day was not there. It has finally caught up. PA may drop in the next few days or anytime as it pushes down. If you see 134x/70 failing to hold R. Then I may be wrong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,876
  • Dec 23, 2021 1:06pm Dec 23, 2021 1:06pm
Quoting gatorinla
Those 4h and day Dynamic R is reaching 134x/70. Earlier in this range the dynamic 4h and day was not there. It has finally caught up. PA may drop in the next few days or anytime as it pushes down. If you see 134x/70 failing to hold R. Then I may be wrong.
Hourly close above 1.1360 is my line in the sand. It’s getting close. But until then I’m happy to be short.
A fool and his money are easily parted
  • #93,877
  • Dec 23, 2021 1:29pm Dec 23, 2021 1:29pm
Quoting MozzChops
{quote} Hourly close above 1.1360 is my line in the sand. It’s getting close. But until then I’m happy to be short.
Eventually h trends will work again.. At this point i wont even trust a day close.
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  • #93,878
  • Dec 23, 2021 1:34pm Dec 23, 2021 1:34pm
I could be wrong. I'm betting pa may not pass far past 1341 (12 close).. And these others are helping.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,879
  • Dec 23, 2021 1:39pm Dec 23, 2021 1:39pm
be carful with your stops.. Your broker may do some christmas shopping with some wide spreads.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #93,880
  • Dec 23, 2021 2:21pm Dec 23, 2021 2:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
I could be wrong. I'm betting pa may not pass far past 1341 (12 close).. And these others are helping.
day wise, this trend is still valid. This current consolidation resembles the last one at 1550/1700. Pa being near the pink R. Time being near year's end, Either a break in R, or -1211 looks in order
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