The Swamp

I just need it to break or i b.e.

down again to 1.1273 - honestly no idea what to do
i would say it goes lower to 1.125 but i have no reason to see it go again to 1.13 so will be no longs for me
but daily was respected again closing below 1.13.

even if we do some dumb things on a monthly basis 1.13 very strong

indices look like they want to go to the highs .

I need below st 1269 and then maybe 1260 will give up. I just move stops now .. maybe add some..

$TRY


The lira has lost almost half its value against the dollar since September as the central bank, under Erdogan’s instructions, kept cutting interest rates in the face of soaring inflation. This has turned real interest rates negative, forcing residents to transfer their savings into foreign currencies and thereby further weakening the lira.

The measures include a program to protect savings from fluctuations in the local currency. The government will make up for losses incurred by holders of lira deposits if its declines against hard currencies exceed interest rates promised by banks. This is effectively a hike in deposit rates that seems to have instilled greater confidence in the currency among depositors. The measures are likely to dampen dollarization of deposits.

How the program will be funded is unclear. But the government will need to take on more debt to pay for it, either by printing more local currency, which will be inflationary over time or by raising its foreign currency borrowings, which will put its debt sustainability at risk.

The five-year sovereign CDS swap rate has jumped 65 bps to 590 bps since the announcement. This implies a further loss of confidence among overseas investors in the country’s handling of the currency crisis and raises the international cost of borrowing for Turkey.

The move also weakens the transmission of monetary policy as the repo rate -- the main policy rate -- will no longer be the benchmark for setting other rates.
Overall, the move signals that Erdogan’s political goals will continue to set the economic agenda, at least until the next election in 2023.

another bearish 6H close.
1.125 .1124 next ?

GU decoupling from EUR/USD
let's see if we can get to 328 area for GU

I think Cable wants me to have a decent Christmas

1.328 going twice ...l.

good day so far. not expected.
interesting to see eur going down and gbp up so it should but ...

also AUD and NZD are now awake.
remember this weakness in EUR right now
It will be a very bad january for EUR if markets go up again today !

They are hitting the crosses EU will catch up later

remember the talk about the Dragon

beast mode avtivated on GJ
fasten your seatbelts.

Baby Yingliang, perfectly preserved dinosaur embryo found in China...
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59748281

GU is the real deal

Looks like EU wants to take back 1.13. With the second higher low on the hourly we are seeing a bit of dollar weakness. I wonder whether this is just Risk on behaviour i.e. the market unwinding some dollar risk hedges or genuine weakness? I think it is the former but I don't have the experience to call it.

yup just come back. i will let a short into holidays.

Stops hit again. I ended up with about 8 pips. Pa is above 1298. Those older spots were 1307 1310 1316 1323 the larger one. Still lots of R above 1323.. Its tough here to rise. Not impossible, just hard.

dynamic closest to 1316 is 1317 and 1323, EU.

Usd wise, support has a way to go. The eu may find R. While the basket of other U.S. crosses may gain verse eur/usd faster. The usdx could also spring back quickly to R. It has a lot of room to drop or rise. The euro takes most of the basket. So be careful. That open door could close either direction. But mostly on non euro crosses.