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Thinking in a probabilistic way 9 replies

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Attachments: Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method
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Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method

Quoting Quants
Soon for GBPJPY we may have signal. {image}
Are these signals tradable?
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Are these signals tradable?
As i already said. Once Price crossed the LH High or HL Low it have %98 probability to move +5 pip further.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
And it have atleast %86 probability to cross the high. It means if candle opens below of the Breakout candles high with X pips. You have tradeable distance. You can see that clearly. Even on H1 Break candles there are some room and tradeable signals.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
And it have atleast %86 probability to cross the high. It means if candle opens below of the Breakout candles high with X pips. You have tradeable distance. You can see that clearly. Even on H1 Break candles there are some room and tradeable signals.
If you share this indy we can all do some testing...
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} If you share this indy we can all do some testing...
I will share. I have just found that on EURJPY if H4 breakouts HL Low gets crossed or LH High gets crossed it have %99 probability to make +5 pip move further.

Need to make some adaptions and improvements then will drop the file. Even if its powerful indicator by it self it will never enough. Thats why i have other approaches such as zones , angles, volatility and some other type of average breakouts to enter my trade. But i have plans to make this HL LH breaks core of my strategy as trigger
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
%91 if candle will reach to high or low
%90 if candle will make + 5 pip.

So there is %1 difference. It means if you trade once break candles high or low crossed you have %99 probability to have +5 pip move before opposite direction break happens. And you will find there are many candles kept going non stop . Some of them +50..
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I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
%91 if candle will reach to high or low %90 if candle will make + 5 pip. So there is %1 difference. It means if you trade once break candles high or low crossed you have %99 probability to have +5 pip move before opposite direction break happens. And you will find there are many candles kept going non stop . Some of them +50.. {image}
But not necessarely in the next bar? Did you look at drawdown? After +1 pip price could retrace 50 pips and turn back to breakout again for +5
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} But not necessarely in the next bar? Did you look at drawdown? After +1 pip price could retrace 50 pips and turn back to breakout again for +5
Yes, Drawdown is there.. I can allso check the probability of making 5 pip in direction before making opposite 5 pips. But i am ok with drawdown if i have very low probability to close at loss. I can throw other filters and wait untill my exit pops up in a loss or after DD it reaches to profit.. I can consider that drawdowns even as discount and try to enter on those that been making drawdown and not reached to +5.. So lets say i have other X conditions and i see it is went against 30 pips. But the high +5 pip still not taken. So it gives me room to trade that opportunity and reward would be atleast +35. Right ? .. It must be managed not traded blindly and combined with other factors.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
Quoting Quants
{quote} Yes, Drawdown is there.. I can allso check the probability of making 5 pip in direction before making opposite 5 pips. But i am ok with drawdown if i have very low probability to close at loss. I can throw other filters and wait untill my exit pops up in a loss or after DD it reaches to profit.. I can consider that drawdowns even as discount and try to enter on those that been making drawdown and not reached to +5.. So lets say i have other X conditions and i see it is went against 30 pips. But the high +5 pip still not taken. So it gives...
Buying at a discount is always better. Maybe you can check the pullback before breakout/continuation and put it in a distribution table. Like Tro's
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Filters suck. They filter out half of the good opportunities.
The most interesting thread up to now for me.

One of my many counter-trend strategies start out with what I call a "dblKC Bo", or a double kc counter-breakout. And it s been helping me since the very beginning of my trading back in 2005 (remember Marketiva hahahah!).

Its very simple. Candle opens above 3rd keltner(22) line and closes below middle line.

Would be cool to see if it has any probabilistic value without my gazillion factors.

Cheers all and thanks Quant for this awesome thread ! really enjoying it.

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If I don't mention SL and TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
Quoting dariuske
{quote} It's been a long time since I've posted here but have been watching the posts on FF now and then. Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one. I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold. Keep up the good work! {image} {file}
You have posted another useful indicator after 5 years.
Thank you.
Practice makes a person perfect
Quoting Quants
This is just nice. 0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens. It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day. This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate. This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it {image}
Even if you spoonfeed, there won't be many takers. So please go ahead if you can.

New traders are lured into the game with a promise of big returns and no work.
TP target : you collect enough statistics on hit rate of your desired TP size by looking at maximum 4 weeks data for scalping.
Now somebody has to do this work.
This indicator makes life easy.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13196139
Practice makes a person perfect
  • Post #154
  • Quote
  • Edited at 9:48am Oct 5, 2020 9:34am | Edited at 9:48am
Im nearly completed my zones system. Its just so good right now with all those approaches. Will be trading and sharing my trades very nicely in couple of weeks.
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
20.09.2021
I will not beg anyone to make money for them
After 1 year of silence did you discovered anything new, good, useful about these probabilistic methods?
Thanks
I've got the free version- why don't you add correlation to it.
eur/usd - us dollar index - OPPOSITE CORRELATION
GBP/USD - EUR/GBP - OPPOSITE CORRELATION
Quoting Quants
Im nearly completed my zones system. Its just so good right now with all those approaches. Will be trading and sharing my trades very nicely in couple of weeks.
Waiting to see it....!!!
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