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vsa with Malcolm

  • #34,041
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:23pm Sep 16, 2021 2:23pm
I used to spend a lot of time on here trying to learn all the bars and definitions. In fact, you'll see posts of mine where I'd even do the old bar by bar analysis for what I saw in the charts.

Now I keep it as simple as I can.

Below the hinge (50%) of my UHV zone. I am looking for 2 things.

 

  1. Sellers
  2. Lack of buyers

Above the hinge (50%) of my UHV zone, I am looking for 2 things.

 

  1. Buyers
  2. Lack of sellers

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #34,042
  • Sep 16, 2021 2:46pm Sep 16, 2021 2:46pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} Nice job, huge improvement. Don't forget to study your wins as much as your losses.
Thanks brother, but I don't know it is improvement, sometimes is going better sometimes is going bad.

I give next screenshot of my positions on NQ today.

1.Shake out on open of session - SOS
Then we see effort - wide spread candle with pretty big volume, i didn't marked it as number because i forget about it and marked it at end.
2.No supply, which was my trigger to entry long, and got SL ... :/
3.Sign of weakness - I think i should get out from position after this candle, because it means weakness. It was biig.
4.No demand and entry in short after confirm down bar.
5.Sign of weakness.
6.No demand - and next short.
7.Shake out - I got out from my shorts on this candle because it was a Sign of strengh after effort to go down.
8.Shake out.
9.Sign of weakness - I entered short here because this is a kind of weakness. We can see upbar, high closed, and then down bar closed lower on the same volume.
I got out from that short, when i see a wicks from down, and one candle has a pretty big volume and close near middle of candle.
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Daytrader
  • #34,043
  • Sep 16, 2021 3:04pm Sep 16, 2021 3:04pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} The operative word from that screenshot is potential. Although we tend to talk about Tests as coming on low volume (especially less than the previous two bars), Tests can come on high volume. What we need to see in order to determine whether the Test passed or failed is whether the next bar (or the bar after the next in some cases) is UP. Where UP is defined as a close above the close of the Test bar.
That was my thinking with the low volume test, with the next upbar confirming.

But unless im reading it wrong, Tom says that a high volume test has failed on its volume reading alone without the need for the next bar to confirm? Wouldnt we then be waiting for a further low volume test, no supply or a squat to enter?

Dont get me wrong though, im happy to enter on increased/high volume tests as there effectiveness has been demonstrated many times by Malcolm, Pres etc, so im not gonna argue with that.

Only thing is, if a high volume test trade turns out to be a loss, would that partucular entry justify the loss if we are to assume that a high volume test bar may be tested again in the future, and this test may fail, find supply....and hit our stop loss?

Therefore a high vol test entry could be deemed as higher risk, but still viable?
  • #34,044
  • Sep 16, 2021 4:08pm Sep 16, 2021 4:08pm
What is significance of a bar marked as EvR, is it really EvR or something else?

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  • #34,045
  • Sep 16, 2021 7:50pm Sep 16, 2021 7:50pm
Quoting pres78
I used to spend a lot of time on here trying to learn all the bars and definitions. In fact, you'll see posts of mine where I'd even do the old bar by bar analysis for what I saw in the charts. Now I keep it as simple as I can. Below the hinge (50%) of my UHV zone. I am looking for 2 things. Sellers Lack of buyers Above the hinge (50%) of my UHV zone, I am looking for 2 things. Buyers Lack of sellers
How to find the sellers or lack of buys?
  • #34,046
  • Edited 9:00pm Sep 16, 2021 8:37pm | Edited 9:00pm
Quoting trezo
{quote} Thanks brother, but I don't know it is improvement, sometimes is going better sometimes is going bad. I give next screenshot of my positions on NQ today. 1.Shake out on open of session - SOS Then we see effort - wide spread candle with pretty big volume, i didn't marked it as number because i forget about it and marked it at end. 2.No supply, which was my trigger to entry long, and got SL ... :/ 3.Sign of weakness - I think i should get out from position after this candle, because it means weakness. It was biig. 4.No demand and entry in...
If you look at that shakeout, the bar tried to rally above the previous bar's high but ended up closing as a widespread down bar. There is a lot of supply on this bar, which means you really want to wait and see how price reacts to any further SoW. In this example if you had seen an UT or ND with no positive reaction then it would've been a good long, but you don't see that here.

Also you reversed your position, this is more of my personal preference but if I realize I'm wrong and want to reverse my position I will wait to make sure price isn't reacting to strength. In your example you have bar 5, the previous bar is a shakeout type bar, and bar 5 shows that market isn't reacting to strength.

Keep at it and just realize this stuff takes time, one thing is that you're awesome at realizing when your wrong and cutting your losses which is huge.
  • #34,047
  • Edited 9:01pm Sep 16, 2021 8:42pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting Shantala
What is significance of a bar marked as EvR, is it really EvR or something else? {image}
That bar is a test, its testing for supply on the bar you drew the lines on the H/L. Off that test price did rally for 1 bar, which that bar is on high volume, I wouldn't say that volume is excessive though.

3 bars after the test you have that widespread down bar, that bar takes out all of the progress made by the test which is extremely bearish. After this widespread down bar there is a hidden up thrust and price falls.
  • #34,048
  • Sep 17, 2021 6:22am Sep 17, 2021 6:22am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} How to find the sellers or lack of buys?
High volume, lack of volume, and bar formations at the right levels.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #34,049
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:06am Sep 17, 2021 7:06am
A little trade today, this trade is 100% based on PA.

Yesterday had some solid stopping volume followed by a NS at the lows. To say that there was a positive result from the NS would be an understatement.

The exit could've been better, today's LO bar was an upthrust which with the background the up thrust didn't mean much but next bar after the up thrust looked like supply hit so I exited the trade, I should have been more patient and waited to close this trade as price approached the highs of the UT.
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  • #34,050
  • Sep 17, 2021 10:50am Sep 17, 2021 10:50am
What I was watching was,
1) NQ broke down.

Attachment g
2) Once the bar closed below the previous low closing bar, its high was not touched. (Blue lines are high of that bar)

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3) Bar in question closed first time above low closing bar. It tried first time to reverse, so I decided to short this upthurst.

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4) As I was clueless where to go short, I switched to 1 min timeframe and saw an EvR bar and a thought came to mind that it will reverse with-trend with target as recent low. But I failed to enter. Please guide me where should I have entered.
  • #34,051
  • Sep 17, 2021 10:54am Sep 17, 2021 10:54am
Attachment g
What are the other places that we can enter this aggressive downtrend?

I always miss such a great aggressive trend.
  • #34,052
  • Sep 17, 2021 2:24pm Sep 17, 2021 2:24pm
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I think test failed (close below NS), one should look for short? It's Friday, so liquidity will dry up early.
  • #34,053
  • Sep 17, 2021 3:11pm Sep 17, 2021 3:11pm
Quoting Anotan
A little trade today, this trade is 100% based on PA. Yesterday had some solid stopping volume followed by a NS at the lows. To say that there was a positive result from the NS would be an understatement. The exit could've been better, today's LO bar was an upthrust which with the background the up thrust didn't mean much but next bar after the up thrust looked like supply hit so I exited the trade, I should have been more patient and waited to close this trade as price approached the highs of the UT. {image}
I have a question to you, do you look at Risk:Reward Ratio? I think sometimes is hard to get a good RR. But maybe you have a high effiency.
Daytrader
  • #34,054
  • Sep 17, 2021 5:05pm Sep 17, 2021 5:05pm
Quoting trezo
{quote} I have a question to you, do you look at Risk:Reward Ratio? I think sometimes is hard to get a good RR. But maybe you have a high effiency.
How we will know we are going to win next trade?
  • #34,055
  • Sep 17, 2021 6:51pm Sep 17, 2021 6:51pm
Quoting Shantala
What I was watching was, 1) NQ broke down. 4039048 2) Once the bar closed below the previous low closing bar, its high was not touched. (Blue lines are high of that bar) {image} 3) Bar in question closed first time above low closing bar. It tried first time to reverse, so I decided to short this upthurst. {image} 4) As I was clueless where to go short, I switched to 1 min timeframe and saw an EvR bar and a thought came to mind that it will reverse with-trend with target as recent low. But I failed to enter. Please guide me where should I have entered....
Hi,
Is the EVR bar indicator in trainingview?
Can you share this indicator?
  • #34,056
  • Sep 18, 2021 1:59am Sep 18, 2021 1:59am
Quoting KevinZeng
{quote} Hi, Is the EVR bar indicator in trainingview? Can you share this indicator?
Do you see any indicator in my chart?
  • #34,057
  • Edited 11:09am Sep 18, 2021 9:56am | Edited 11:09am
I welcome criticisms and comments regarding anything I post here as although I am an enthusiastic new learner of VSA I am NEW. My views are likely to be overly simplistic so I look forward to your comments.

When analyzing a chart I have found that I am doing so in the context of the current trend. Of course many immediately pounce on this and ask "what trend?".

I have seen some use MAs in this endeavor but I want to present a brief discussion that might be helpful or perhaps not.

First it seems this is what VSA traders are looking for:

In an uptrend:
1. Signs of weakness that might forecast a possible reversal of an uptrend to a downtrend.
2. Signs of strength that support uptrend continuation.

In a downtrend:
1. Signs of strength that might forecast a possible reversal of a downtrend to an uptrend.
2. Signs of weakness that support downtrend continuation.

MOVING AVERAGES
In an uptrend a MA supports an uptrend as long as price is more or less above it. In a downtrend a MA supports an downtrend as long as price is more or less below it. Choice of MA is likely largely at the discretion of the trader. Additionally, one can use more that on MA with one fast and one slow so that an attempt to identify the trend is done so when the fast MA crosses the slow.

SWINGS
Another potential trend identifier is the tried and true HHs and HLs in an uptrend and the LLs and LHs in a downtrend. Swings are characteristic of this type of trend identifier and one will quickly notice that there are different swing sizes that although may seem confusing may be beneficial.

Impulses make new highs (HHs) in an uptrend and new lows (LLs) in a downtrend. Corrections are the retracements that make HLs in an uptrend and LHs in a downtrend.

Impulses and corrections themselves can be made up of smaller swings so that it is possible to trade either an impulse or a corrective based on the smaller swings.

50% level of high volume wide spread bars
The use of the 50% level of high volume wide spread bars is essentially a technique that attempts to identify the beginning of a reversal if in fact one is looking for a reversal or a continuation if one is looking for a continuation.

The post is getting long in the tooth so I'll stop and invite comments. I plan to show a chart or two demonstrating my bias towards swings rather than MAs. This is in no way to put down MAs and I will mention that I have seen some very good examples of MA use recently on this thread showing their validity.
  • #34,058
  • Sep 18, 2021 10:19am Sep 18, 2021 10:19am
Quoting Winston Reed
I welcome criticisms and comments regarding anything I post here as although I am an enthusiastic new learner of VSA I am NEW. My views are likely to be overly simplistic so I look forward to your comments. When analyzing a chart I have found that I am doing so in the context of the current trend. Of course many immediately pounce on this and ask "what trend?". I have seen some use MAs in this endeavor but I want to present a brief discussion that might be helpful or perhaps not. First it seems this is what VSA traders are looking for: In an uptrend:...
Ive also mostly used structure for direction and never really considered MA's much, but whilst trawling through the thread theres countless examples of traders using it effectively, the ones that stand out are HiddenHap and ofcourse Malcolm, who from what ive seen in one of his trade plans, just glances at the H1 MA for his higher TF direction.

Im still experimenting with the MA at the moment, but like the idea of keeping it simple and clean, but will see what happens.

Im gona start another evaluation this week and plan to use the MA (hopefully I stick to it throughout the evaluation )
  • #34,059
  • Sep 18, 2021 11:59am Sep 18, 2021 11:59am
This EURUSD 480min chart shows a combination of market structure in terms of swings (HHs, HLs, LLs, LHs) and a 20 period MA.
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1. This chart is further labeled showing the larger orange swings. In the context of the orange swings price impuised to a new high or HH and terminated with a high volume wide spread bar 1. Price came off with the next bar 2 also on high volume. This is representative of Effort vs Result (EvR) in that the widespread bullish bar did not get followed through with more bullish activity. In fact the result was a bearish bar on high volume suggesting that the smart money is planning to take price down.

2. Now if price is to continue to the downside then a downtrend must in someway reveal itself to the trader. The MA and the blue swings are intended to show evidence of a downtrend.

3. Bar 3 seems to be no demand if one is convinced that price is going to down trend. It also occurs at the 50% level of bar 1. It would be an early call and fairly high risk if considering an entry based on this bar but the risk is not too bad.

4. Price does not fall below the MA until bar 4. Bar 4 also exceeds the first blue swing to the downside. I'm not sure what to call bar 5 but it is a low volume narrow spread so I guess it could represent some type of no demand. I'm not sure if bar 6 is an upthrust but it is on high volume closing near its low.

5. I believe bar 7 is an upthrust occurring on high volume and seems to represent no demand and so a sell stop below this bar seems reasonable. Bar 7 also comes back to the area of bar 4 that exceeded the first blue swing and it touches the bounces off the bottom of the 20 MA.

6. Bar 8 is a very high volume widespread closing nearly on its low. Price does not descend initially below this bar so bearish effort did not result in decline. However bar 9 is a high volume upthrust and so at the 50% level there seems to be significant SOW.

7. Bar 10 is another high volume widespread bar closing on it's low. It seems quite bearish but what will be the result of this effort?

It's worth noting that in the context of the larger orange swings that the current downtrend is a corrective wave and so perhaps bar 10 is in fact a SOW. The 50% level is shown and I'll be watching to see what price does on this bar. Price is of course below the 20 MA and the blue swings continue to indicate a down trend.

Again your comments, clarifications and corrections are welcome.
  • #34,060
  • Edited 2:52pm Sep 18, 2021 1:26pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting Winston Reed
This EURUSD 480min chart shows a combination of market structure in terms of swings (HHs, HLs, LLs, LHs) and a 20 period MA. {image} 1. This chart is further labeled showing the larger orange swings. In the context of the orange swings price impuised to a new high or HH and terminated with a high volume wide spread bar 1. Price came off with the next bar 2 also on high volume. This is representative of Effort vs Result (EvR) in that the widespread bullish bar did not get followed through with more bullish activity. In fact the result was a bearish...
My thinking is that Bar 5 is a No Demand- Narrow spread upbar, closing near the middle, with <2 volume.

And bar 6 would be a "Pushing through Support/Gotcha bar, showing weakness, weakness confirmed with next bar closing down.

Bar 7 would be a hidden upthrust due to it closing down.

I could be wrong though, but good for testing the knowledge.



I think there are different teachings of market structure, on this particular timeframe the 480 minute (i only use mt4 so dont have that one ), the first major break of structure to the downside (blue) would be the impulse created after Bar 7 which would make me consider shorts, but I would have to be aware of the "orange range", if the orange range is bullish then the downtrend would be limited to somehere around 50% or below (discount) where internal liquidity would be grabbed for smart money to go long. Therefore I would consider a short as counter trend and would likely wait for bullish continuation to take longs.

If the orange structure is broken to the downside, then I would likely have a short bias.

Thats why ive just been looking at the MA to avoid too much thinking and marking up etc. But no doubt each method will have its pros and cons.
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