04/06/21 10:05 | +5. I am done. {image} Worked out in traded but with buffer, +5)
Gr88888
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
{quote} Your persistence is admirable but I think you should give the BB away...time is best spent elsewhere...GL..
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
04/06/21
DAX barely worked out for the +5 on the BillyBar today.
FTSE worked out too on the low break.
DAX barely worked out for the +5 on the BillyBar today.
FTSE worked out too on the low break.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
04/06/21
13:45 | Well, and then you have these "trending" days where it just keeps going... But still not sure how i should benefit from it, always easy to say after the event.
The moment i was in the trade i was already happy to got out with the +5. Splitting the position size or working with a trailing stop great on these days but then you have 4 out of 5 days where you get chopped to death applying such tactic/s.
Anyways, i am out. Good weather we have today. I am going to get stuff for a BBQ. Trade safe all.
13:45 | Well, and then you have these "trending" days where it just keeps going... But still not sure how i should benefit from it, always easy to say after the event.
The moment i was in the trade i was already happy to got out with the +5. Splitting the position size or working with a trailing stop great on these days but then you have 4 out of 5 days where you get chopped to death applying such tactic/s.
Anyways, i am out. Good weather we have today. I am going to get stuff for a BBQ. Trade safe all.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
08/06/21
I am currently taking a break from trading to rethink and analyze various things. I also have to take care of my family a little more.
I am still watching my setup very closely but havenīt found any more structured routine as a recovery plan to compensate for the losses yet.
I so far tested different approaches here but without leading to any consistent level of success that would ultimately give me the confidence to let me increase my trade size (which i absolute would have to) to get me where i would like to be.
So thats the current status.
Yesterday we had a high break and it worked out for the +5. Today we had a low break and it worked out. So 2 wins for the current week. 3 days to go.
I am currently taking a break from trading to rethink and analyze various things. I also have to take care of my family a little more.
I am still watching my setup very closely but havenīt found any more structured routine as a recovery plan to compensate for the losses yet.
I so far tested different approaches here but without leading to any consistent level of success that would ultimately give me the confidence to let me increase my trade size (which i absolute would have to) to get me where i would like to be.
So thats the current status.
Yesterday we had a high break and it worked out for the +5. Today we had a low break and it worked out. So 2 wins for the current week. 3 days to go.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
09/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 8.0 Pips
The high broke and failed to reach the +5 here (3,8). Then the low broke and barely reached it (+5,5). It then touched the high again and moved +10.
I was not there or concentrating on it this morning. Not sure if i should have done so. If the range is less than 10 Pips it tends to be that the first break at least is more prone to fail, e.g. to hit the opposite end. I have no statistics however to back that up. So i sometimes enter if the range is small, sometimes i don't, pure intuitive decision then for me based on what i see in the moment.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 8.0 Pips
The high broke and failed to reach the +5 here (3,8). Then the low broke and barely reached it (+5,5). It then touched the high again and moved +10.
I was not there or concentrating on it this morning. Not sure if i should have done so. If the range is less than 10 Pips it tends to be that the first break at least is more prone to fail, e.g. to hit the opposite end. I have no statistics however to back that up. So i sometimes enter if the range is small, sometimes i don't, pure intuitive decision then for me based on what i see in the moment.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
11/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 9.9 Pips
Multiple fails today for price to break out for the +5. "Normally" the third break is good (>90%+ probability) but not today. Very rare event but happens.
Would be interesting to see if there are past samples and how many where it then failed more than 3 times at a larger range (> 15)? Manually adjusted/increased the range to min. 15 Pips would have saved me in this case today of any loss at all. I then would have first entered on the first low break happening 45 Mins later at 09:00 UK time (11:00 my broker/chart time). Woulda, coulda ...
I am a bit under water for the current week but also haven't traded with much of a discipline. Today i took the trade as to the rules and it failed, i left out all the other setups where 3 of them were good for the +5. Two times it failed for a range of 1 x 8.0 Pips (Wednesday) and 1 x 9.9 Pips (Friday). The 3 winners happened at a range of 1 x 10.2 (Monday), 1 x 12.8 (Tuesday) and 1 x 20.2 (Thursday).
So that's a gross -18 Pips vs +15 Pips (-3) based on a pure risk/reward ratio for this week.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 9.9 Pips
Multiple fails today for price to break out for the +5. "Normally" the third break is good (>90%+ probability) but not today. Very rare event but happens.
Would be interesting to see if there are past samples and how many where it then failed more than 3 times at a larger range (> 15)? Manually adjusted/increased the range to min. 15 Pips would have saved me in this case today of any loss at all. I then would have first entered on the first low break happening 45 Mins later at 09:00 UK time (11:00 my broker/chart time). Woulda, coulda ...
I am a bit under water for the current week but also haven't traded with much of a discipline. Today i took the trade as to the rules and it failed, i left out all the other setups where 3 of them were good for the +5. Two times it failed for a range of 1 x 8.0 Pips (Wednesday) and 1 x 9.9 Pips (Friday). The 3 winners happened at a range of 1 x 10.2 (Monday), 1 x 12.8 (Tuesday) and 1 x 20.2 (Thursday).
So that's a gross -18 Pips vs +15 Pips (-3) based on a pure risk/reward ratio for this week.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
14/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 16.2
The high broke and failed to reach the +5. The following low broke then was good.
No trades for me today so far.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 16.2
The high broke and failed to reach the +5. The following low broke then was good.
No trades for me today so far.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
Think about the following: According to your strategy, you observe the bar from 08:00 till 08:15 GMT. The direction for the day is where it breaks first (low or high) this bar. And the pips are many more than 5.
Have a look at today, what number would be "many more" than +5 ?
It moved 10 pips since the low break and we are 17:11 UK time in the day, 18:11 my time. It also came back to the high of the 08:00-08:15 range.
First black vertical line is the +5 TP (already took more than 1 hour today to go there rofl..) Second black vertical line is where it touched the high again and would have taken me out at worst.
So not sure what other TP would be better than +5?
- Joined Jun 2018 | Status: An ordinary brother | 4,100 Posts
{quote} Yes but the question is what is "many more". So where do you then take profit and where do you cut your loss? In my case SL = the opposite end of the range but i also tried all kind of other fixed risk/reward ratios over a larger sample size/period. In my case i haven yet found any fixed risk/reward formular where the setup would provide a 5 Pips net profit / day on average over a 20 days, 1 month period. Have you? Please share
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 24,6 Pips
The low broke and was good for the +5. Haven't traded it today. Still working on a Plan B before i will continue.
Range: 24,6 Pips
The low broke and was good for the +5. Haven't traded it today. Still working on a Plan B before i will continue.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
18/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 18,9
Orders placed. Price currently bound between the high/low. Lets see where we go. TP +5 as usual. Would be nice end of the week for otherwise quiet unproductive and unprofitable 5 days lol.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 18,9
Orders placed. Price currently bound between the high/low. Lets see where we go. TP +5 as usual. Would be nice end of the week for otherwise quiet unproductive and unprofitable 5 days lol.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
21/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 18.5 Pips
The low broke and failed to reach the +5.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 18.5 Pips
The low broke and failed to reach the +5.
- Joined May 2009 | Status: Member | 3,222 Posts
24/06/21
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 16,6 Pips
The low broke first and failed to reach to the +5. The following high break would have been good for the +5 Pips/%.
Nothing much going on for me over last weeks. GBP/USD is acting like shit and feels extra ordinary unpredictable it its moves but that's nothing a real statistical based trading approach should worry about right? You trade the numbers/maths there, nothing else. At least that's how it should be in my understanding. Market conditions change all the time, nothing you can do about it anyways.
I have no idea at the moment... It might be different if i would finally find some more structured way of how to fix these failed trades as soon as the first break failed.
We had another fail right at beginning of the current week on Monday. So 2 winners, 2 losses for the ongoing week. -34 vs +10 = -24. So a 24 Pips i would have to make somehow else to be at least break even at the moment trading the same size or even a further +20 (+44) then to actually reach the average daily goal of ending up +5 by the end of each day.
Will post my full statistics over the setup as usual by the end of the month. Will be interesring how it sums up for June.
GBP/USD 08:00 - 08:15
Range: 16,6 Pips
The low broke first and failed to reach to the +5. The following high break would have been good for the +5 Pips/%.
Nothing much going on for me over last weeks. GBP/USD is acting like shit and feels extra ordinary unpredictable it its moves but that's nothing a real statistical based trading approach should worry about right? You trade the numbers/maths there, nothing else. At least that's how it should be in my understanding. Market conditions change all the time, nothing you can do about it anyways.
I have no idea at the moment... It might be different if i would finally find some more structured way of how to fix these failed trades as soon as the first break failed.
We had another fail right at beginning of the current week on Monday. So 2 winners, 2 losses for the ongoing week. -34 vs +10 = -24. So a 24 Pips i would have to make somehow else to be at least break even at the moment trading the same size or even a further +20 (+44) then to actually reach the average daily goal of ending up +5 by the end of each day.
Will post my full statistics over the setup as usual by the end of the month. Will be interesring how it sums up for June.