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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #83,881
  • May 17, 2021 11:36pm May 17, 2021 11:36pm
USDJPY is not a bull, it's only retracing to 110, where is going to heavily turn down as a strong bear.
I'm The Real Deal Quant-XR ,The Financial Hacker
  • #83,882
  • May 18, 2021 10:27pm May 18, 2021 10:27pm

USD/JPY fades tepid bounce amid pre-FOMC cautious trade, 200H MA caps upside


USD/JPY chart - Trading View Pre-FOMC minutes caution trading weighs on the pair, keeping it rangebound, while the US dollar attempts a tepid bounce. USD/JPY was trading largely unchanged on the day at 108.91 at around 04:30 GMT, down from session highs at 109.07. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted that Japan's economy remains under pressure from the state of emergency curbs. Kuroda in his speech on Wednesday said that the central bank will continue to patiently sustain powerful monetary easing. Focus on the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April policy meeting to gauge the market sentiment. Markets reeling under broad risk-aversion, as inflation concerns haunt markets. Any hint of tapering measures could dampen the market sentiment further. Technical bias for the pair is showing a bearish tilt. Price action has slipped below 21-EMA and 5-DMA is biased lower. MACD is on verge of bearish crossover on the signal line and price action has slipped below 200H MA. Scope for further downside. The next major support lies at 55-EMA at 108.45.
to err is human
  • #83,883
  • May 19, 2021 8:42am May 19, 2021 8:42am
Im still selling this pair since March. ⬇
  • #83,884
  • May 19, 2021 10:39am May 19, 2021 10:39am
In about 30 minutes feds gonna say the same thing they've been saying.

"No taper in the foreseeable future."

Bid it up and dump it.

Probably be the nail in the coffin for the bull case until Jackson Hole comes around.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,885
  • Edited 5:31pm May 19, 2021 5:20pm | Edited 5:31pm
I agree with all bearish outlooks. My only issue? A Yen chart looking like another small move down before going up... We should know in a week or so. Watching the news for it.

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Lower highs on the daily
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4hr..
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If so 109.8 on deck, maybe even 110.8 off a 108.9 bounce???. Then we load this wagon up.. All speculation.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,886
  • May 19, 2021 5:25pm May 19, 2021 5:25pm
Quoting markofrose
Im still selling this pair since March. ⬇
Aren't you selling at 107 though?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,887
  • May 19, 2021 5:50pm May 19, 2021 5:50pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
I agree with all bearish outlooks. My only issue? A Yen chart looking like another small move down before going up... We should know in a week or so. Watching the news for it. {image} {image} Lower highs on the daily {image} 4hr.. {image} If so 109.8 on deck, maybe even 110.8 off a 108.9 bounce???. Then we load this wagon up.. All speculation.
Yen futures have almost been moving in tandem usd/jpy which has been tied to rates.

Dollar futures tanked below 89 and had very little effect on usd/jpy.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,888
  • May 19, 2021 9:04pm May 19, 2021 9:04pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Aren't you selling at 107 though?
Yes.
  • #83,889
  • May 20, 2021 9:17am May 20, 2021 9:17am
@Obsaymkmoney

Aren't you into harmonics?

Look at that bat forming on the daily chart.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,890
  • Edited 9:18am May 21, 2021 9:05am | Edited 9:18am
Upside momentum capped around 50 on rsi is no bueno for bulls.

Good short opportunities.
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"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,891
  • May 21, 2021 1:09pm May 21, 2021 1:09pm
Quoting Jgcole83
@Obsaymkmoney Aren't you into harmonics? Look at that bat forming on the daily chart.
Only when EVERYTHING else also points to the Harmonic, and then I only use them to judge take profit targets. I looked at the daily. A possible bearish butterlfly may also come in. Today's news was unexpected. Once it is digested we may continue up. Overall a good week. My $50 to $10,000,000 challenge is going well so far 13 positive trades. Something about only going for 10 percent a trade is very calming..
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,892
  • May 21, 2021 1:27pm May 21, 2021 1:27pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Only when EVERYTHING else also points to the Harmonic, and then I only use them to judge take profit targets. I looked at the daily. A possible bearish butterlfly may also come in. Today's news was unexpected. Once it is digested we may continue up. Overall a good week. My $50 to $10,000,000 challenge is going well so far 13 positive trades. Something about only going for 10 percent a trade is very calming..
I'm not big on capping profits.

I usually build a position over time risking a little bit of profit and add to the position only when price moves my way.

I never ever leverage a losing trade.

Might use s/r combined with rsi and price action to make a call on closing out a trade.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #83,893
  • May 23, 2021 10:25am May 23, 2021 10:25am
#USDJPY / H4
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  • #83,894
  • May 23, 2021 9:50pm May 23, 2021 9:50pm
taking long position of 108.8x tp 109.60
  • #83,895
  • May 24, 2021 2:50am May 24, 2021 2:50am
Out at 108. 9x due to risk of eu summit
  • #83,896
  • May 25, 2021 6:10am May 25, 2021 6:10am
Take long.
USD / JPy equal to EUR/USD!
  • #83,897
  • May 25, 2021 6:15am May 25, 2021 6:15am
Hello scalpers, new and old, young and old,
Let me know of a norm.
When the JPY trades, the EUR don't, and V/V.
Lesson 1 done.
  • #83,898
  • May 25, 2021 7:32am May 25, 2021 7:32am
So,
Do folkes agree or disagree with the previous statement?
  • #83,899
  • Edited May 27, 2021 2:00am May 26, 2021 9:08pm | Edited May 27, 2021 2:00am
I am buying everything above 108.515 and selling everything around 109.4 until we break north above the 109.5 heading towards another 109.8 touch. From there selling to 105 area. We are in ranges similar to the ones that preceded the two previous FOMC statements. Both of which we knew the answer, and just waited for confirmation.. elation.. and the fear again the weekend after the announcement. Just my opinion. Waiting for confirmation.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #83,900
  • May 26, 2021 9:22pm May 26, 2021 9:22pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} I'm not big on capping profits. I usually build a position over time risking a little bit of profit and add to the position only when price moves my way. I never ever leverage a losing trade. Might use s/r combined with rsi and price action to make a call on closing out a trade.
Oh me neither my friend, I have lost more to greed, than satisfaction in my life. For the most part drawing a fib when they are confirmed takes me to the 261.8 and 161.8 levels allowing me to get the full run. I don't use the traditional TP zones where the purely "safe" trades lie. If you haven't noticed yet I am a bit of a guerilla. No one style, but a little of all those I found small successes in.

Here is the chart with my fibs on it. As you can see we are currently flirting with the 61.8 (the top of the zone I mentioned in a previous post). I think we hit the 161.8 for a confirmed bearish head and shoulders before heading down.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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