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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #9,761
  • Dec 4, 2020 4:56am Dec 4, 2020 4:56am
USDCAD @ 1.2850 might work for a long trade. I'm watching 1.28 and 1.29 for possible long and short setups, respectively.
  • #9,762
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:15am Dec 4, 2020 5:15am
Quoting shahab8b
Scalping short EU sl 10 pips
EURUSD, short trade. Let's see if C-12 approves of the entry, haha.

This is a very clear up trend, so there will be no surprise if it breaks higher. Possible long setup @ 1.21
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,763
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:22am Dec 4, 2020 5:22am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} EURUSD, short trade. Let's see if C-12 approves of the entry, haha. This is a very clear up trend, so there will be no surprise if it breaks higher. Possible long setup @ 1.21 {image}
What an entry that is.. I will grade that one a AAA+ for accuracy.

Got an eyes on USDCHF ahead of NFP. Possibly starting to show some signs of life under 0.89.
  • #9,764
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:28am Dec 4, 2020 5:28am
Quoting C-12
{quote} What an entry that is.. I will grade that one a AAA+ for accuracy. Got an eyes on USDCHF ahead of NFP. Possibly starting to show some signs of life under 0.89.
Yea, I like what I see there. When the trend becomes super bearish (or bullish for that matter), you might get a V-shaped reversal.
  • #9,765
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:40am Dec 4, 2020 5:40am
USDCAD going straight to 1.28. Let's see if we get a reaction there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,766
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:53am Dec 4, 2020 5:53am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCAD going straight to 1.28. Let's see if we get a reaction there. {image}
I was going to mention the 0.25RN and 0.75RN - Notice what your EU came off too earlier. I have been doing a lot of study and back testing on it.

It's definitely a price level to watch in the right locations.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,767
  • Dec 4, 2020 5:57am Dec 4, 2020 5:57am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} NZDUSD, short trade, another simple RN trade. {image}
NZDUSD, when you combine your TA learnings.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,768
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:06am Dec 4, 2020 6:06am
Quoting shahab8b
EURCAD short trade, it turned out it needed a RN. The setup was combination of wedge pattern, bearish candle, and RN. {image}
EURCAD, short trade update. One could have added on the pull back.
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  • #9,769
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:18am Dec 4, 2020 6:18am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade. {image}
Here we go, GBPUSD, long trade update. This was an easy call really.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,770
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:45am Dec 4, 2020 6:45am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Here we go, GBPUSD, long trade update. This was an easy call really. {image}
Killing it again, great trade there. It's a clear uptrend so counter plays are always going to be quick ones (50 - 75 pips)

EURCAD - Missed that 50% setup too off the 0.5
  • #9,771
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:46am Dec 4, 2020 6:46am
EURUSD, long trade. I pointed out the importance of 1.2140. It was never able to break that level. Unfortunately, some retail traders (I'm no exception, I have had my share of losses) get trapped on these moves. The next possible short setup comes @ 1.22. Unless we see a clear break of S @ 1.2140, the trend remains bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,772
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:54am Dec 4, 2020 6:54am
Very hard to push "like" for every post.
I wish FF would have a feature to give "like" to a thread. Or after a participant has given 10 likes in one thread it would become "auto like" of thread". Would make it more simple to notice quality threads.
It is the only thread I check every day.
Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,773
  • Dec 4, 2020 6:55am Dec 4, 2020 6:55am
Quoting C-12
{quote} Killing it again, great trade there. It's a clear uptrend so counter plays are always going to be quick ones (50 - 75 pips) EURCAD - Missed that 50% setup too off the 0.5
Yea, exactly. The RN @ 1.35 served its purpose with a +50 pips clean trade. I pointed out the second round it might break out to the upside.
  • #9,774
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:01am Dec 4, 2020 7:01am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, D1 is bullish, the pair broke above the R (074). {image}
AUDUSD, long trade update. Possible short setup @ 0.75
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  • #9,775
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:04am Dec 4, 2020 7:04am
Try scalp GU SL=BE already
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Stay low, Go fast - No luck, All skill
  • #9,776
  • Edited 7:21am Dec 4, 2020 7:09am | Edited 7:21am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, exactly. The RN @ 1.35 served its purpose with a +50 pips clean trade. I pointed out the second round it might break out to the upside.
I am in the process of writing a 100% mechanical rule based strategy (including setups for confluence retracements and fresh RN reversals). I've added 50 pips as a mandatory TP1 for all counter RN setups.

A mechanical rule based plan can never replace the 10-15 years+ screen time, but it can go quite a way to help new traders really start making money with flawless execution off solid levels. It will be good for my discipline as well.

It's not going to be possible to cover every market condition, but retracements and reversals should offer decent coverage.

Once it is ready I shall share it here and perhaps it can be tweaked as we go along.
  • #9,777
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:11am Dec 4, 2020 7:11am
Took EG long now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets will move to the right.
  • #9,778
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:22am Dec 4, 2020 7:22am
EURUSD, I like what I see here, a retest of the TL on the opposite side. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but a turn might be around the corner.
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  • #9,779
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:34am Dec 4, 2020 7:34am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, I like what I see here, a retest of the TL on the opposite side. Let's not get ahead of ourselves, but a turn might be around the corner. {image}
You maybe onto something, Also GBPUSD looking quite heavy here at this level. I felt 1.35 was possibly going offer more than just 50 points.

It's the yearly high and a massive multi year resistance level.
  • #9,780
  • Dec 4, 2020 7:36am Dec 4, 2020 7:36am
Quoting C-12
{quote} You maybe onto something, Also GBPUSD looking quite heavy here at this level. I felt 1.35 was possibly going offer more than just 50 points. It's the yearly high and a massive multi year resistance level.
I think USD might be waking up. Also looking at gold, it can turn south again. So it's quit possible. Let's see how it plays out.
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