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  • #121
  • Sep 22, 2020 8:43am Sep 22, 2020 8:43am
Quoting Rearden
{quote} Got it G. Thank you for the clarification. I was trying to get an idea of trades when bias changes by looking at your previous trades during No bias weeks. I think I have to also look about the clues in MACD that you were talking today morning(ystr evening) in the your journal.
I wasn't using MACD, but I am always cautious when bias changes and often aggressive. It depends. We aren't to the aggressive part yet, but it's all learned in the doing.
Be bullish on you.
  • #122
  • Sep 22, 2020 3:02pm Sep 22, 2020 3:02pm
23 Sept (Wednesday)

No Bias, Down move

The market broke down further and held below the last low. So the white line comes all the way to the high between the last and present low.

I placed a PO at 1720(#2) and 1760 for #3. I will update the #3 PO if S50 comes lower.
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  • #123
  • Sep 22, 2020 5:42pm Sep 22, 2020 5:42pm
Quoting gejordan
{quote} I wasn't using MACD, but I am always cautious when bias changes and often aggressive. It depends. We aren't to the aggressive part yet, but it's all learned in the doing.
Yes G. Got it. I know those bias were not from MACD. I was talking about checking trades from S50 and pivot perspective.

On MACD, what I meant was to check on the Bar heights etc to find if it slows down or shows any common characteristics during the bias change weeks.
  • #124
  • Edited 3:01am Sep 23, 2020 2:09am | Edited 3:01am
the price didn't trigger my entry at #2 or #3 but reached the level where I placed TP and is going up now. The price has not changed the direction yet. But I see that there are couple of High impact news tonight for USD.

The trades have happened and I missed it. I am thinking will it be a prudent decision to pull the orders now since it has reached TP and also due to the news. Since I am on small size and trying to learn, I will still keep the Pending orders where it was and observe how it behaves.

Since the S50 is nearing the pivot and I already have an entry around that area, I didn't update the #3 entry as the S50 moved down but kept it at the initial place.
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  • #125
  • Sep 23, 2020 3:20am Sep 23, 2020 3:20am
Quoting Rearden
the price didn't trigger my entry at #2 or #3 but reached the level where I placed TP and is going up now. The price has not changed the direction yet. But I see that there are couple of High impact news tonight for USD. The trades have happened and I missed it. I am thinking will it be a prudent decision to pull the orders now since it has reached TP and also due to the news. Since I am on small size and trying to learn, I will still keep the Pending orders where it was and observe how it behaves. Since the S50 is nearing the pivot and I already...
Look Closely, you had a new low/ stay below, check your swing
Be bullish on you.
  • #126
  • Sep 23, 2020 5:22am Sep 23, 2020 5:22am
Quoting gejordan
{quote} Look Closely, you had a new low/ stay below, check your swing
Yes, Saw that there was a 2-3 bar pullback. I have moved the White line lower.

Now, I think we are in a tricky situation. if the the price hold above the white line ,those trades will be short trades in an up move. It may also be above the S50.
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  • #127
  • Sep 23, 2020 3:15pm Sep 23, 2020 3:15pm
24 Sept (Thursday)

The market moved even further down and held below the last low. I moved down the swing to high b/w last low and current low and placed #2 and #3.

My orders was not triggered for two days. Mentally, I have no problem with that since I am trying to learn price movements and not make profits now.The price retraced almost 100% of the smaller swings and pushed lower(pink arrow).

Zooming out and looking to the left, I see that price has broken down from big range we were in since early July.If price triggers my #2 entry I will see if I can follow the move to take profit. If it triggers the S50, I will take the Profit at where price is now.
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  • #128
  • Edited 2:52am Sep 24, 2020 1:54am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting Rearden
24 Sept (Thursday) The market moved even further down and held below the last low. I moved down the swing to high b/w last low and current low and placed #2 and #3. My orders was not triggered for two days. Mentally, I have no problem with that since I am trying to learn price movements and not make profits now.The price retraced almost 100% of the smaller swings and pushed lower(pink arrow). Zooming out and looking to the left, I see that price has broken down from big range we were in since early July. If price triggers my #2 entry I will see...
My pivot entry was triggered and i took the profit when low was challenged. Initially my plan was to let it run if it went down and then trail the stop. But I didnt want to mix different style for TP and break the rule of the exercise. The Swing low after the current low is further down. So I thought I will take the profit when it challenged the current low.

Some observation

> I see that there is change in how the price move during a No bias week. its different when we were in a range bound market.

? When there is bias change to "No bias", is it better to wait and see if price reacts at the S50 rather than entering a #3 trade straight away. Especially when the distance to white line is large(risk is large). I see this from the previous trades in April etc. This is what I see and I need more scenarios to validate this.
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  • #129
  • Sep 24, 2020 4:56pm Sep 24, 2020 4:56pm
25 Sept

No Bias, Down Move

I see that the market has moved down and hold below the previous swings. There was no pulls back which met the criteria. So white line remains in the same area.

The price opened between Pivot and S50. I was not able to be in front of the screen at the open. So entering an idea #3 trade now with TP from where it came from.

If we hold above 1718, the market will be in up move.
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  • #130
  • Edited 6:16pm Sep 25, 2020 8:55am | Edited 6:16pm
Quoting Rearden
25 Sept No Bias, Down Move I see that the market has moved down and hold below the previous swings. There was no pulls back which met the criteria. So white line remains in the same area. The price opened between Pivot and S50. I was not able to be in front of the screen at the open. So entering an idea #3 trade now with TP from where it came from. If we hold above 1718, the market will be in up move. {image}
The price hit the target.

? One thing I consistently saw this week is the repeated nature in the movement of price. It tend to do a revisit of the previous small swing high for an almost 100% retrace before the break down of previous swing as observed in post 127. It repeated this today too.

? Should I start figuring patterns which are peculiar for a week or a certain time and see if it repeats.... until it doesnt repeat anymore ... i have to check previous chart for any obvious hints and also start paying attention for future price movement.
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  • #131
  • Edited Sep 26, 2020 3:25am Sep 25, 2020 9:54pm | Edited Sep 26, 2020 3:25am
Weekly Summary 21 Sept to 25 Sept
=======================

Observation from past trades during No bias weeks

1.When there is shift to No Bias week from a bias week, Be careful of taking a S50 trade particularly when the price fails to continue in the initial direction. Take the distance to white line in to consideration. It happened on Monday this week too. I saw G taking small profit when price fails to go in the initial direction and then taking a trade at the edge of the swing when it is close to the white line or taking trade in the opposite direction when move has shifted(e.g-06 April -07 April,13 April,15 Jun-16 Jun)

2. During No bias week, Be careful when trading a #3 on a move back from BRN area(15 April, 21 May)- I am not sure of this. Needs more examples to validate.

3. Taking trades from S50 in the normal way when 'the move' supports and RISK IS LOW(meaning near to white line) (e. g 18 May)

4. Don’t be afraid to stay back when price has not clearly shown which way it wants to go. Here there was no #2 and #3 trade for Monday and Tuesday. The week might have ended up with close to 250+pips trading on Wednesday onwards(e.g. 27,28 May)

21 Sept to 25 Sept

MY main observation for this week was the repetition of similar price movement across the week. I was not emotionally stressed when I missed those moves. But I am sure there is a better way to manage or be part of the move once I advance my skill in watching the charts. I need more data for No bias weeks for validating this.

?how will I find clues to these type of occurrences and differentiate between when price will reach the pivot/S50 and then move in my direction.... i am not sure now.... I need more data.
  • #132
  • Sep 27, 2020 3:04pm Sep 27, 2020 3:04pm
28 September(Monday)

No bias, Down move

Since its a no bias week, I will follow the move. I have placed my Sell PO at #2 and #3 with TP at 1612. Since the price has held below, i moved my white line to 1685.
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  • #133
  • Edited 7:57am Sep 28, 2020 7:12am | Edited 7:57am
The price didn't break the low but went above the S50. A hold above the 1685 will indicate that the down move is over as of now. I will watch the price closely and learn if this is similar to action which happened during first week of April etc. I have updated my TP to 1624 since that is where the price went up from.
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  • #134
  • Sep 28, 2020 3:14pm Sep 28, 2020 3:14pm
29 Sept

No Bias, Down move

The price didnt break the 1685 nor the low of the last swing at 1612. The S50 is going flat. The price is in down move and opened above S50. I got to the chart a bit late and entered straight away. with TP at 1624.

+Recently, looking at chart doesn't build up much anxiety or much emotion. I didn't feel stressed when I missed trades last week. I think making it a goal to follow the rules regardless of the number of pips made, is a good way to address emotion.
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  • #135
  • Sep 29, 2020 6:07am Sep 29, 2020 6:07am
The price held above 1685 and so I exited all 3 positions. The move has turned to the upside and I will look for long trades from now until it hold below 1612 area.

This was a no bias week and price failed to breakdown than the previous week low. The price broke above the S50 and held above it yesterday. I had observed similar patterns during No bias weeks in previous months as noted in my weekly observations last week.

Today Morning, when I saw the S50 flattening, I thought there was a chance for the price to range and come to the lower area of the range.

Mentally I am ok and the loss has not affected me. It gave me another data point to confirm my observation. Overall I am happy with the result and I am learning.
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  • #136
  • Edited 3:33pm Sep 29, 2020 3:20pm | Edited 3:33pm
30 Sept

No Bias, UP move

The price has turned to up move. I placed BUY PO at 1716 and 1685 with TP at 1765. The white line is at 1612 area
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  • #137
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:27am Sep 30, 2020 8:27am
I had updated my PO for #3 as the S50 moved up . both the positions are challenging the highs. but today opened above the S50 and the price is in Upmove. My TP is further up at 1764. I will wait to see what happens.

what if the price comes down all the way and close below my entry and S50. I will bring down my TP tommorow and follow the process i learned from trading the ranges few weeks back.
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  • #138
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:39am Sep 30, 2020 8:39am
Hi G,

My other thought is that if this is a continuation of the original larger up move, I could catch a nice trade. Although, I have known plenty of times price consolidates for a period of time and goes edge to edge. and the last post...

May I ask why do you think about a continuation of the original larger up move or is it something that you keep in mind ? I saw that you also said about price dropping also....so are you just thinking about different options which can happen...

I couldnt see any clue from a S50 and pivot perspective which may indicate a further move up. I checked the HTF and saw that we are in 50% fib and 161 fib which is not something we track for the exercise.

i was seeing that break down from the wide range(which happen since end July to two weeks back....). Although I have to admit I was not hoping if it will go down or go up. I was just focused on the NO bias week, up move, down move and rules pertaining to it.
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  • #139
  • Sep 30, 2020 8:08pm Sep 30, 2020 8:08pm
Quoting Rearden
Hi G, My other thought is that if this is a continuation of the original larger up move, I could catch a nice trade. Although, I have known plenty of times price consolidates for a period of time and goes edge to edge. and the last post... May I ask why do you think about a continuation of the original larger up move or is it something that you keep in mind ? I saw that you also said about price dropping also....so are you just thinking about different options which can happen... I couldnt see any clue from a S50 and pivot perspective which may...
The main reason I said it about both moves is our Bias indicator (but I am also keeping options fresh in my mind). The MACD might be declining, but it is still positive. We are in an up move so my thought is that this could be the place we catch a big push up.. if it happens. When I said it about price breaking down, we were in a down move and MACD declining. Even though MACD is above zero, it is declining and could go on an extended decline.

I don't know what will happen, but I always try to keep both options in mind. Not in an attempt to predict price, but in an effort to not get fixated or surprised when things happen or don't happen.

And No Fibs... where did those come from... start with what you are using... swings and bias, entry and exit locations.
Be bullish on you.
  • #140
  • Sep 30, 2020 9:33pm Sep 30, 2020 9:33pm
01 OCT(Thursday)

Just got time to be infront of the computer now. I didnt enter any new positions today. The Long positions from yesterday is still there. I brought down my target to the last swing from where the price came down from. May be it will breakout to the top.. I dont know.. but I will follow the rules and learn if it do so.

?Since yesterday the price went down and closed below 50 only once. The next candle came back and closed above the MA immediately. Since then the price has not went below the S50. Is that indicative of the strong bullish presence?...Will it break out of the 1750 area and go to 1850 area. i will watch closely and see if I have a chance to reengage.

> I will keep a watch on my emotional reaction to a missed trade should the breakout happen.
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