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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #8,121
  • Sep 25, 2020 1:57am Sep 25, 2020 1:57am
Quoting shahab8b
AUDUSD, I'm considering a short-term long trade if it can remain above 0.7040. H4 shows a possible inverted H&SH. I will switch to short above 0.7150 if we get there. will update {image} {image} {image}
AUDUSD, long trade update, sl to b/e.
  • #8,122
  • Sep 25, 2020 2:25am Sep 25, 2020 2:25am
The DXY daily shows a normal light retracement of USD. Yesterday´s doji makes it highly unlikely that USD breaks the trendline. Also, Nasdaq futures are solid. I expect a risk on day from here. Good buying opportunity for EU, GU, GBPJPY, AUDUSD. I am now long all 4 pairs. We´ll see if it pans out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXY - Daily.png Size: 925 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,123
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:03am Sep 25, 2020 3:03am
Quoting Alorente
The DXY daily shows a normal light retracement of USD. Yesterday´s doji makes it highly unlikely that USD breaks the trendline. Also, Nasdaq futures are solid. I expect a risk on day from here. Good buying opportunity for EU, GU, GBPJPY, AUDUSD. I am now long all 4 pairs. We´ll see if it pans out. {image}
Al, EU weekly is looking very bearish. I think it will close like this. On H1, the trend is bearish below 1.1685. If it gets S @ 1.1630, it may have a chance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 925.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU wk 925.PNG Size: 65 KB
  • #8,124
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:11am Sep 25, 2020 3:11am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Al, EU weekly is looking very bearish. I think it will close like this. On H1, the trend is bearish below 1.1685. If it gets S @ 1.1630, it may have a chance. {image} {image}
All my technicals indicate a turn around New York session. Of course, that depends on Nasdaq continuing higher and that in turn depends to a large extent on Congress passing the relief aid that is getting close to passing. I don´t see much downside from here today. Of course, I may be totally wrong and get splattered with a cream pie in the face. We´ll see...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,125
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:14am Sep 25, 2020 3:14am
GBPUSD, it got rejected @ 1.2775-1.28 former S turned R zone and fib 0.38 . the trend is down against 1.28.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 625.png Size: 35 KB
  • #8,126
  • Sep 25, 2020 3:16am Sep 25, 2020 3:16am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} All my technicals indicate a turn around New York session. Of course, that depends on Nasdaq continuing higher and that in turn depends to a large extent on Congress passing the relief aid that is getting close to passing. I don´t see much downside from here today. Of course, I may be totally wrong and get splattered with a cream pie in the face. We´ll see...
yea, I know what you're saying.
  • #8,127
  • Edited 4:55am Sep 25, 2020 4:42am | Edited 4:55am
EU, lets see if we get a bounce off the S for a long trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 925 EU.PNG Size: 77 KB
  • #8,128
  • Sep 25, 2020 5:02am Sep 25, 2020 5:02am
The Nasdaq needs to break the high of 9/23 and it will be off to the races. It may not happen until there is an announcement regarding the relief package which could be announced next week.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,129
  • Sep 25, 2020 5:52am Sep 25, 2020 5:52am
Quoting shahab8b
EU, lets see if we get a bounce off the S for a long trade {image}
I went long on the S, will move sl to b/e when it goes higher. It might be forming a double bottom on H1. But lets not get ahead of ourselves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1 9251.png Size: 36 KB
  • #8,130
  • Sep 25, 2020 7:13am Sep 25, 2020 7:13am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I went long on the S, will move sl to b/e when it goes higher. It might be forming a double bottom on H1. But lets not get ahead of ourselves. {image}
stopped out
  • #8,131
  • Sep 25, 2020 7:20am Sep 25, 2020 7:20am
EURUSD, pending buy @ 1.16, sl (20), tp (150)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH4 9251.png Size: 29 KB
  • #8,132
  • Sep 25, 2020 7:49am Sep 25, 2020 7:49am
AU, watching this H1 candle close, for a long setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU doji.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #8,133
  • Sep 25, 2020 7:58am Sep 25, 2020 7:58am
Quoting shahab8b
AU, watching this H1 candle close, for a long setup {image}
This H1 candle close will not be bullish. I will go with pending long @ 0.70, sl (20), tp (150)
  • #8,134
  • Sep 25, 2020 8:00am Sep 25, 2020 8:00am
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF, daily, saucer pattern {image}
USDCHF, moved sl to below daily low, R is coming up @ 0.935
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFDaily 925.png Size: 44 KB
  • #8,135
  • Sep 25, 2020 8:05am Sep 25, 2020 8:05am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD, it got rejected @ 1.2775-1.28 former S turned R zone and fib 0.38 . the trend is down against 1.28. {image}
GBPUSD, it formed a bearish flag
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 9251.png Size: 40 KB
  • #8,136
  • Sep 25, 2020 8:44am Sep 25, 2020 8:44am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} This H1 candle close will not be bullish. I will go with pending long @ 0.70, sl (20), tp (150)
AUDUSD, lets see if we can get a good long entry @ 0.70
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU 70w.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #8,137
  • Sep 25, 2020 8:56am Sep 25, 2020 8:56am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, pending buy @ 1.16, sl (20), tp (150) {image}
EURUSD, weekly candle looks like a Marubozu. Not trying to catch a falling knife, 1.16 is also close to 50% fib. Lets see if we get a decent bounce to move sl to b/e and let it run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD wk mrb.PNG Size: 72 KB
  • #8,138
  • Sep 25, 2020 9:12am Sep 25, 2020 9:12am
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, I'll be watching 105.60 - 105.80 for a possible short setup {image}
USDJPY, short trade, will move sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30 925.png Size: 37 KB
  • #8,139
  • Sep 25, 2020 9:54am Sep 25, 2020 9:54am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I don't understand the contradiction. Those are two separate trades. At the time of posting the first one, the trade could be taken @ 0.7055-0.7050 with sl below 0.7040. That gives you sl of 10-15 pips. If it failed, then you were out with 15-10 pips loss. The second trade was a confluence trade (based on round number and S) that could give a bounce and let you move your sl to b/e. and had a sl of 20 pips. If you wanted to stay in your first trade with a sl of 0.6980, your sl would be 95 pips combined as compared to 35 pips on 2 separate...
OK shahab8b, thanks for explaining. I hadn't realised you were talking about two separate trades. And thanks for detailing your logic.
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #8,140
  • Sep 25, 2020 10:03am Sep 25, 2020 10:03am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} USDCHF, moved sl to below daily low, R is coming up @ 0.935 {image}
USDCHF is running in a very clean channel. let's see how far it goes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFM15 925.png Size: 39 KB
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