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  • #2,721
  • Sep 8, 2020 5:59pm Sep 8, 2020 5:59pm
CoT report. Doesn't look good timing to buy at the moment...... I am only watching divergence by the way......
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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...weather-671346
Hedge Funds Stand Pat
According to the most recent commitment of the trader’s report released for the date ending September 1, 2020, managed money reduced their long position in futures and options by 873 contracts, while reducing short positions in futures and options by 64 contracts. Open interest that is long futures and options outnumbers open interest that is short in the managed money space by a robust 130K contracts.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,722
  • Sep 8, 2020 6:14pm Sep 8, 2020 6:14pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} EURUSD vs. Natural Gas Futures (/NG) daily volatility Last Friday, EURUSD's daily range was 79 pips, while /NG's daily range was 174 ticks (EURUSD 1 lot 1 pip = $10, /NG 1 contract 1 tick = $10). I love Nat Gas !! {image}{image}
/NG moved about 218 ticks yesterday. Only GBPJPY beat /NG.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,723
  • Sep 8, 2020 6:30pm Sep 8, 2020 6:30pm
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...rogress-671143

Short-Term Outlook
Mixed temperatures across most of the country are expected to keep a lid on short-term demand. However, California is expected to remain extremely hot, perhaps providing some support.
The major focus this week will be on LNG export demand and how fast key U.S. facilities can return to normal production levels following the devastation from Hurricane Laura nearly two weeks ago. Good news should bring firmer prices.
This week’s and next week’s government storage reports are expected to show huge injections so this news could keep a lid on prices.
Meanwhile, hurricane activity in the Atlantic continues to pick-up as we have reached peak hurricane season. There is no hurricane premium at this time, but the situation is being monitored. These hurricanes are in the Atlantic and not the Gulf of Mexico so there is no threat to production facilities at this time. A lot of brokers like hype the hurricanes but professionals are smarter than the brokers.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,724
  • Sep 9, 2020 7:44am Sep 9, 2020 7:44am
Somebody threw a single Sell market order of 686 contracts..... I want to understand the situation... Perhaps a massive stop loss hit?
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,725
  • Sep 11, 2020 3:23am Sep 11, 2020 3:23am
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ng-rally-alive

Cold Winter Forecasts Have Traders Hoping LNG Rally Lives On

The world’s natural gas traders are hoping for a brutal winter to help sustain a price rally back from a record-setting slump.
Fresh in their minds are memories of the previous two winters, when milder temperatures curbed consumption, leaving inventories brimming and spot prices reeling. Suppliers and traders fear recent gains, which are expected for this time of year, could be erased if colder weather doesn’t materialize to help solidify demand.
Benchmarks for liquefied natural gas in North Asia and Europe have only recently returned to pre-pandemic levels after trading near historic lows for most of the year. The rally has been supported by unplanned outages and canceled deliveries, coupled with a tepid increase in spot buying as some of the biggest economies recovered from lockdowns.
Asian LNG prices have rallied from historic lows amid supply disruptions
“There is a lot of uncertainty about this winter, with the risk of a serious second wave of coronavirus, and temperatures still being the most sensible variable for gas demand,” said Julien Hoarau, gas market analyst at Engie EnergyScan. “Many of the bullish drivers we are seeing now are expected to vanish in the next months.”
For now, the winter outlook for North Asia, home of the world’s top buyers, is looking colder than previous years.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for Northern China, even though milder weather is expected for most of the country’s other regions, according to Bradley Harvey, the lead meteorologist at Maxar. Near-normal temperatures are expected for the Korean Peninsula and Japan, which would be an improvement over last year’s unusually warm winter, he said.
Areas that were warmer last year have a better chance of being colder due to this year’s La Nina event, when the surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean become cooler than usual, according to Todd Crawford, who oversees the seasonal forecasts at the Weather Company.
Supply Concerns
Front-month futures for the Japan-Korea Marker, the benchmark for LNG prices in North Asia, have jumped 68% since early August, closing at $4.310 per million British thermal units on Thursday. The Dutch Title Transfer Facility is up 55% over the same period to about $3.644 per million Btu.
The benchmarks are trading at the highest in eight months amid outages from Australia to Norway, and as buyers jumped in to secure cargoes before prices rose too much. Even hard-hit India has found a sizable home for LNG due to weak domestic gas production, according to Robert Sims, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie Ltd.
“LNG spot prices in North Asia have increased due to concerns about lower supply,” said Jenny Yang, an analyst at IHS Markit. “This triggered a market sentiment that winter season was upon us, prompting many buyers to start stocking early for winter supply.”
Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s largest LNG trader, is cautious. Maarten Wetselaar, director of integrated gas and new energies at Shell, said during an online conference this week that it’s too early to get bullish even after the recent rally. Government stimulus will run out and the economic recovery will be dependent on the progress of the Covid-19 vaccine, he said, noting that he isn’t a “near-term bull.”
Cold Comfort
China’s two largest LNG importers -- PetroChina Co. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. -- have largely finished buying for the winter and are still struggling with high inventories. The same goes for neighbors Japan and South Korea, which are entering the winter season with higher-than-normal supplies. But a frigid winter would boost consumption and force them into procuring more from the spot market.
And while injections into European storage caverns have eased over the last month and finally dipped below 2019 levels, they’re still sitting well above the seasonal normal. Dutch and British gas prices could reverse gains if colder weather doesn’t materialize and help drain those stockpiles, especially as higher wind generation will likely limit the need for gas-fired power.
“Inventories remain high, so the only thing outside of more supply events is weather,” James Whistler, the global head of energy derivatives at Simpson Spence Young, said by email. “A cold winter would help clear the backlog and set us up for a spring pandemic recovery pattern.”
European gas inventories slipped below last year's level, but still abnormally high
Meanwhile, ongoing issues at Chevron Corp’s Gorgon LNG in Australia and Cameron LNG on the U.S. Gulf Coast, as well as lower nuclear output in France, may continue well into the winter months and keep the market tight.
A supply-driven rally is a double-edged sword. As benchmarks increase, producers may be encouraged to boost output that they curbed over the summer, such as pipeline gas to Europe from Algeria and Russia or LNG from Egypt and Malaysia.
Some of the biggest output cuts this summer came from the U.S. after buyers canceled scheduled shipments when low prices shut arbitrage opportunities. But cancellations have been greatly reduced going into the winter, which may result in a flood of American shipments to Europe and Asia.
“A lot of the support to prices right now is due to supply-side issues,” Jeffrey Moore, a Singapore-based analyst at S&P Global Platts, said by email. “This recent rally could easily fade before heading into the winter as storage inventories fill up and seasonal demand declines.”
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,726
  • Sep 11, 2020 5:37am Sep 11, 2020 5:37am
Guess what I am doing........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,727
  • Sep 11, 2020 5:57am Sep 11, 2020 5:57am
EUR is weekly and monthly overbought. I'd wait a month or two before selling EUR when people no longer pay much attention to strong EUR.... It worked so far.
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,728
  • Sep 11, 2020 6:37am Sep 11, 2020 6:37am
Quoting heispark
Look at this huge liquidity of Sep-Oct spread DOM. Over a thousand contract in each tick level! Compare this with Sep DOM. {image}{image}
This is Oct-Nov spread DOM.... Not sure why its liquidity is so thin...........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,729
  • Edited 4:55am Sep 14, 2020 4:31am | Edited 4:55am
Quoting heispark
Is Day Trading Profitable? Do Individual Day Traders Make Money? Evidence from Taiwan {image} https://youtu.be/n1hBH-InT_0 You're betting in a mission impossible....... Good luck.
https://www.tradingschools.org/revie...res-the-proof/

Day Trading: Its for SUCKERS. Here’s the proof.

Yeah, I know this headline is going to piss you off. But it’s true — day trading Futures (and stocks) is for suckers. And I have proof.
We often hear through rumor and internet chatter that “90% of day traders fail.” But these have been just that — rumors. And innuendo, that courses through the veins of a ‘faultless’ internet.
But we also know that the internet is a great fountain of disillusionment, fantasy, misinformation, and “fake news.” The internet makes it hard to believe anything. Yet, we cannot live without it.
I have a lot of friends that are Futures brokers. And I don’t use the word “friend” lightly. In fact, a good deal of my review subjects come directly from the brokers themselves. And these conversations go something like this:
Emmett, you have got to write about that YouTube scammer selling his bullshit trading indicators and courses! My clients got burned real bad.
Or,
That scammer swindled an 88 year old grandma with a magic trading system. Do something!
Too often I tell the broker, “Fool, you knew it was a scam and you could have warned your clients months ago!”
It’s not easy for a broker to call out a trading educator as a fraud or a phony. You must understand, they rely upon each other. It is a symbiotic relationship. The broker, although he hates the scammers, he also relies upon them for the opening of new trading accounts. The grinding wheel always needs grease.
The honest brokers, that have been in the business for many years — they all know the truth. Yet they will never admit it. And the truth is very simple: the higher the frequency and shorter the duration of your trading, the higher the likelihood that you will lose everything.
Let me repeat, and as simply as possible. The more you trade, and the shorter your time frame, the less likely you will earn a profit. Doesn’t that sound so harsh? It hurts to read.
But many will say, “Where is the evidence!” And, “Lambo Boy and Warrior Boy are making millions from $500 dollar trading accounts.” Sorry folks, Lambo Boy and Warrior Boy are making millions from selling hyped up magical trading indicators and front running your trades. Let’s be clear, I am not accusing anyone of committing a crime. The real crime is the self-inflicted stupidity that consumers inflict upon themselves because they willingly swallow the BS.
Regardless, let’s look at the most comprehensive and current data that suggests that ‘day trading’ is a scam.
Brazilian Futures Traders
Many of my readers might be surprised to read that Brazil is really, really into Futures day trading. In fact, most readers might be even more surprised to read that the Brazilian Emini Futures contract is 300% more popular (in terms of daily trading volume) than the ultra-popular Emini SP500 Futures contracts. Yet, the population of Brazil is approximately 38% of the US population. (320 million vs 120 million).
Just like in the United States, and other English speaking countries, the Brazilian Futures industry is filled with nearly identical quacks and whack-a-doodles peddling all manner of indicator insanity, amazing trading systems, and social media day trading hucksters. In fact, many of the people I write about also have websites in Brazil, displaying both the Portuguese and Spanish language versions.
Same bullshit — different language.
People really are the same. It doesn’t matter the color of skin, the language used, or the minor differences in weight, height or appearance. We are all the same. Our motivations are especially similar. We all need resources to survive. And we all labor the same, eat the same proteins, study the same math books, and dream the same dreams. We all want an opportunity.
Why am I making such a pointed effort to draw comparisons of Americans to Brazilians? Because some readers might be biased into believing that “American exceptionalism” or anything American must be better than anything Brazilian. But this is false. The English speakers are no different than the Spanish and Portuguese speakers — we are the same in every imaginable way.
In Brazil, day trading is a national pastime. Even more popular than in the United States. But until recently, nobody in Brazil had performed a credible study that analyzed a large pool of investor data that specifically analyzed Futures day traders.
Day Trading For A Living?
On August 19, 2019, the Sao Paulo School of Economics published a highly controversial study about Futures day traders in Brazil. This published study made front-page news across the country. Literally, nearly everyone in Brazilian society was talking about the study. Day trading in Brazil is extremely popular, and extremely controversial. Its like soccer.
On one end of the spectrum were the brokers, the educators, the software providers, the soothsayers, and indicator gypsies that have been hyping (and profiting from) the industry for years. On the other end of the spectrum were the scientific community, including social scientists, economists, and data scientists. Let’s just say that the scientific community was in the extreme minority.
The scientific community was extremely skeptical of many of the claims of “people getting rich quick” and the constant television and internet ads that promised “day trading” glory and “work from home” opportunities.
And so, the Sao Paulo School of Economics commissioned a study that tracked a total of 19,646 day traders from 2013 through 2015. The data was broken down into bite-sized chunks to better understand the data.
The first group of day traders totaled 1,111 individuals that day traded only a single day. Of this group, 29.8% achieved a profit.
The second group of day traders totaled 9,978 individuals that day traded between 2 to 50 days. Of this group, 15.5% achieved a profit.
The third group of day traders totaled 3,100 individuals that day traded between 51 to 100 days. Of this group, 8.9% achieved a profit.
The fourth group of day traders totaled 2,738 individuals that day traded between 101 to 200 days. Of this group, 6.8% achieved a profit.
The fifth group of day traders totaled 1,168 individuals that day traded between 201 to 300 days. Of this group, 5.4% achieved a profit.
The sixth group of day traders totaled 1,151 individuals that day traded greater than 300 days. Of this group, 3.0% achieved a profit.
What does this data suggest? Ironically, the data suggests that the odds of achieving day trading success is nearly identical to playing roulette at a casino. The more you play, the greater the likelihood that you will lose everything.
The social scientists were particularly surprised to discover that ‘learning’ played nearly no part in the results. For instance, it was assumed that if a person had traded 6-months and 200+ trades, that they would learn to trade better or improve upon their trading strategies to achieve greater success because they were “learning from experience.”
And this is just what the trading educators want us to believe…that we need to “learn” and over time, this “learning” will improve our results. But the data absolutely destroyed these assumptions. In fact, the more a person “learned” to trade, the worse their performance became. It seems like “practice makes perfect” does not work in day trading Futures markets.
The Brazilian traders that actually earned an income
We all know that some folks, through luck or skill, are going to achieve success. Let’s take a look at those figures now…
The first group of successful day traders totaled 17 individuals that earned an average of $16 per day.
The second group of successful day traders totaled 8 individuals that earned an average of $54 per day.
The third group of successful day traders totaled 1 individual that earned an average of $310 per day.
But here is the sad part…of these successful Futures day traders, the standard deviation of their daily profit ranged from $632 to $3,308. What does that mean? In other words, in order to consistently earn $80 per day, you would also have to experience massive daily fluctuations of between $632 and $3,308.
And based upon the data, only one person was able to earn more than a minimum wage job.
It gets worse
For those 1,151 day traders that persisted 300 days, 97% lost all of their money once commission was factored in.
Even the highest performing trader that earned an average of $310 per day ended up barely profitable once the commissions were factored in. How sad are these numbers?
In conclusion, the study stated that “It is virtually impossible for an individual to day trade for a living, contrary to what the brokerage specialists and course providers often claim.”
So what should you do?
If you are stuck in that sad wheel of constantly funding a day trading account, and constantly looking for a new ‘Guru,’ then perhaps its time to put the mouse away. At least for a while.
The sad and sorry truth is that day trading is mostly a scam. Yes, some can pull it off successfully. Just like how some people will be cured of cancer by drinking apple cider vinegar. But the overall scientific data put the odds at roughly equivalent of playing roulette. The more you play, the greater the likelihood that you will lose everything.
For those that want to take a deeper dive into the data, I have included the study below. Also, you can read the report on a full page here. Thanks for reading.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,730
  • Sep 14, 2020 2:10pm Sep 14, 2020 2:10pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} https://www.tradingschools.org/revie...res-the-proof/ Day Trading: Its for SUCKERS. Here’s the proof. Yeah, I know this headline is going to piss you off. But it’s true — day trading Futures (and stocks) is for suckers. And I have proof. We often hear through rumor and internet chatter that “90% of day traders fail.” But these have been just that — rumors. And innuendo, that courses through the veins of a ‘faultless’ internet. But we also know that the internet is a great fountain of disillusionment,...
My father showed me how to trade stocks but that was for investment purposes not to day trade. As part of my MBA in finance I took a few courses in portfolio management and the theory works but for investments only not day trading. I quit trading stocks in 2005 when one of my friend showed how to trade forex. Forex is much better than trading stocks because of the low spreads and the high leverage. I still hold stocks with a stock broker but for investments not for trading. With a leverage 2:1 to trade stocks on a daily basis is insane and much more difficult to make money as compared to forex. The picture below shows the winning percentage of traders for many forex brokers and it's not rosy since most traders lose money. I really wonder why those who lose money keep trading. Please click the picture to enlarge.
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  • #2,731
  • Sep 14, 2020 4:29pm Sep 14, 2020 4:29pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} My father showed me how to trade stocks but that was for investment purposes not to day trade. As part of my MBA in finance I took a few courses in portfolio management and the theory works but for investments only not day trading. I quit trading stocks in 2005 when one of my friend showed how to trade forex. Forex is much better than trading stocks because of the low spreads and the high leverage. I still hold stocks with a stock broker but for investments not for trading. With a leverage 2:1 to trade stocks on a daily basis is insane and...
Thanks for the information although I don't fully trust this stat. Anyway, as long as it works to you, yes, no need to fix! There are always exceptional people out there.
I am having some health issues recently and want to reduce screen time now. Sitting and watching monitors for a long period of time is very bad to healthy at my age I believe. I see many long time FF members died early or suffer various health issues. I want to make money while I sleep.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,732
  • Sep 15, 2020 5:50am Sep 15, 2020 5:50am
Quoting heispark
{quote} This is Oct-Nov spread DOM.... Not sure why its liquidity is so thin........... {image}
Somebody with a deep pocket is betting to spread narrowing........
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,733
  • Sep 15, 2020 1:33pm Sep 15, 2020 1:33pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} Thanks for the information although I don't fully trust this stat. Anyway, as long as it works to you, yes, no need to fix! There are always exceptional people out there. I am having some health issues recently and want to reduce screen time now. Sitting and watching monitors for a long period of time is very bad to healthy at my age I believe. I see many long time FF members died early or suffer various health issues. I want to make money while I sleep.
I mostly trade on D1 chart this is why I'm online at the end of the trading day so I might say that I make money while I sleep Looking at a monitor too long is not healthy for sure. Please take a look at this software it works for me eye-saver.net/ .
  • #2,734
  • Sep 16, 2020 4:50am Sep 16, 2020 4:50am
If you like mean reversion over trend, what are the advantages?

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threa...ntages.349904/

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,735
  • Sep 17, 2020 5:28am Sep 17, 2020 5:28am
QQE CCI Divergence

https://forex-station.com/viewtopic....33#p1295419433

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File Type: ex4 QQE cci new (mtf + arrows + alerts + divergence).ex4   106 KB | 468 downloads

I like this indicator. I don't need divergence display, so turned it off. Mladen & Mrtools are really genius.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,736
  • Sep 17, 2020 3:45pm Sep 17, 2020 3:45pm
Natural Gas Craters After Weak Demand, Glut Blindside Bulls

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...u-s-stockpiles

For all the heat waves and hurricanes that have wreaked havoc in America this year, nothing has stopped the nation’s natural gas supplies from swelling, with a massive stockpile gain blindsiding traders on Thursday and sending prices plunging by the most in almost two years.
U.S. inventories of the heating and cooling fuel expanded by 89 billion cubic feet to 3.614 trillion cubic feet last week, well above any analyst’s expectations. Stocks are growing despite two back-to-back heat waves that broke records across the western U.S., extreme temperatures that baked New York earlier this year, multiple hurricanes that have temporarily shut gas rigs across the Gulf of Mexico and La Nina threatening a more extreme winter chill in the north.
The large stockpile gain reflects a slew of negative factors that have halted recent bullish momentum in the gas market. Milder weather heading into fall is curbing the demand for gas to generate electricity for air conditioning, while industrial demand for gas is the lowest for this time of year since 2015 amid pandemic-driven lockdowns. Though hurricanes disrupted offshore gas output, they also triggered blackouts and forced two U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminals to shut.
“How many times have we witnessed this price action unfold in the natural gas markets,” said Teri Viswanath, lead economist for power, energy and water at CoBank. “The run-up that occurs during the hottest days of the summer always begins to wane as the heat begins to diminish and physical inventory limits take on greater importance. This outsized stock build simply underscores the fact that supply-demand balances remain loose.”
Natural gas is plummeting from August highs
The slump erased much of the gain posted last month amid speculation U.S. gas was finally reaching a turning point, helped by shale drillers curtailing output in response to weak oil prices. Some traders pointed to expectations of a frigid winter and the possibility of a much tighter supply-demand balance. That, so the thinking went, would finally help elevate prices out of their two-year slump. Gas for January 2021 delivery is trading at the biggest premium to the October 2020 contract on record.
Accelerating supply gains suggest gas hasn’t rounded the corner yet, however. While a stockpile surplus has persisted all year, storage levels are now at a record for this time of year, according to government data.
“The super-size storage number is putting pressure here,” said Bob Yawger, head of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA. Gas was already selling off after an August rally and “it’s nothing more than speculators pulling the plug and booking profits. There are a lot of people that have been long for a long time.”
The bulls include commodity analysts at Citigroup Inc., who said Thursday that the supply balance for 2021 remains tight and that a mild winter should delay, not derail, the bank’s positive price view.
Thursday’s selloff “largely reflects short-term demand and storage issues, as prices should remain constructive in 2021 due to rising demand and exports y/y amid falling production,” analysts including Anthony Yuen wrote in a note to clients. “Looking ahead to 4Q20 and 2021, the market should be constructive, though price gains could be more limited in the early part of winter and potentially stronger later on.”
Gas futures for October delivery fell 9.9% to settle at $2.042 per million British thermal units on New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest decline since January 2019. The settlement price was the lowest since July 31.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,737
  • Sep 17, 2020 3:48pm Sep 17, 2020 3:48pm
Inserted Video
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,738
  • Sep 17, 2020 6:06pm Sep 17, 2020 6:06pm
Quoting heispark
NGX20-NGV20 (Nov-Oct contract spread). Looks interesting.... {image}{image}Pretty stiff contango..... And fundermental...... https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/a...ce-hard-670111 I am currently betting spread narrowing. When Oct-Nov rollover approaches, I expect its spread will become narrower. No guarantee but I think it's historically, statistically sold betting at least....
WTF.......
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,739
  • Sep 21, 2020 6:47am Sep 21, 2020 6:47am
Quoting heispark
{quote} WTF....... {image}{image}
People are dumping October contract and Oct-Nov spread is soaring....... very interesting situation right now.......
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(Oct, Nov and Dec contracts)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #2,740
  • Sep 21, 2020 4:37pm Sep 21, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting heispark
{quote} People are dumping October contract and Oct-Nov spread is soaring....... very interesting situation right now....... {image} (Oct, Nov and Dec contracts)
Just like it happened to WTI Oil months ago, Nat Gas is sitting on huge inventory and people are dumping October contract. Even so, its spread gap is historically unusual as you can see the pictures below.... Only a few days remaining before expiration and I don't think its gap will be narrowing much. This is the time when spread traders lose money.....
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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
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