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The Swamp

  • #73,921
  • Aug 21, 2020 4:30pm Aug 21, 2020 4:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} bear missed 1761,, but its still below 1783..
Week bear harami. But the day 1714/1690 still has to be beat. With a day close below, to drop. I dont trust the bear until it closes below 1690/1714.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,922
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:23pm Aug 21, 2020 6:23pm
it looks like a wet ass for me next week.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,923
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:24pm Aug 21, 2020 9:24pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Thats a good entry, but i think it might have to go a bit lower? h4 is below sma 200 and cannot break up is alarming sign for me.... fundamentally im still bearish gbp, but Usually the divergence between fundamental and technical is a lot of opportunities hidden. Anyway im not taking trade until next week, burnt my hand a bit hard past few weeks and currently travel out back to my home town, the city where i work gone under confinement after a new cluster of covid started mid july and cannot trace contact back to F0 (we had 99 days covid...
AJ has a bear engulfed week and a close below the wedge tl..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,924
  • Aug 22, 2020 2:09am Aug 22, 2020 2:09am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} AJ has a bear engulfed week and a close below the wedge tl.. {image}
I shorted from 76.5 and closed at 75.8 ill refill next week. Its too juicy. Got 120 pips from NJ also EU burnt me 2times last week already. Its a shame i cannot read this pair....
  • #73,925
  • Edited 3:57am Aug 22, 2020 2:51am | Edited 3:57am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} next h close is the 4h.. just closing below 1783 is not bullish. below 1761 even better for bears. I dont know who is being screwed here, bulls holding or bears holding. If the day closes below 1714 was the old mark. But it has to followed by a day close below 1690. If not the bulls will probably attack. The week/today closing below 1840 engulfs last week. Usually a bearish sign to test support 1690/1714. Lc week was already lower. A close today below 1775 is a stronger bear. A close below 1690 could be a wtf drop. 1690/1714...

Bear Engulfed Day. Week thick red pin bar. Gator, my chart shows previous week candle not quite engulfed on bottom? I am guessing that you're referring to the PA, not just the specific candle. Very bearish candle irregardless. Closed virtually on, maybe a couple of pips below, 12 year downtrend line. So the previous week seems it may have been a false break above the major down trend? My chart, as near as I can make it, shows the last 4H wick exactly touched trend line, closed 4 pips under. So, technically, broke the trend line , retested, and rejected, but soooo close it's hard to call it a failure. Broke 30 M, one H and 4 H uptrend, day and week still green on Boulder's scale. Broke a H&S pattern on 4H, (second chart) was retesting at close of trade. So collectively slightly indecisive, but to me leaning towards the break of major recent uptrend. I won't long it until more decisive PA.

I'll put charts of GU in a post below, showing similar bearish changes. Also, AU has red weekly pinbar
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  • #73,926
  • Edited 3:51am Aug 22, 2020 3:21am | Edited 3:51am
GU closed slightly above weekly down trend from 2014 last week (same as EU but shorter time scale on trend line for GU). This week closed slightly above the down trend line, but with Very bearish pin bar with long top wick. On 4H a double top, price closed on neck line of M. On daily, engulfed bear candle.

Overall, slightly indecisive, tittering on brink of break down, similar to EU.

One note, just for FYI. During the last few weeks, at the beginning of large moves, up and down, I've spotted several times one currency or another, with the USD, significantly lagging the movements of all the other pairs moving in sync up or down against the $USD. It reminds me of something q import mentioned several weeks ago, about fingers twitching on the hand when one finger is moved. Sometimes it seems one finger is late twitching. This leaves the pairs against the overlooked currency at temporarily high levels. Yesterday it was the pound, other days the Aussie or the Euro. It's sometimes as though MM focus on one or 2 which they push hard, then switch attention to the one previously overlooked and push it. Yesterday I saw it happening and shorted the pound after the other pairs were moving down, but the pound was late. When the pound finally moved, it made up for lost time. It paid off very well, so I'll be watching for this opportunity again.
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  • #73,927
  • Edited 3:50am Aug 22, 2020 3:28am | Edited 3:50am
Quoting gatorinla
it looks like a wet ass for me next week. {image}

Stay safe Buddy. Keep that computer dry. Keep that crystal ball high and dry. Don't let it fog up.
  • #73,928
  • Aug 22, 2020 9:11am Aug 22, 2020 9:11am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} AJ has a bear engulfed week and a close below the wedge tl.. {image}

Nice. Looks like chutes and ladders to me. Quick long candle followed by smaller ones that retrace the entire previous candle. They tend to repeat. Thanks.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #73,929
  • Aug 22, 2020 9:31am Aug 22, 2020 9:31am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} Bear Engulfed Day. Week thick red pin bar. Gator, my chart shows previous week candle not quite engulfed on bottom? I am guessing that you're referring to the PA, not just the specific candle. Very bearish candle irregardless. Closed virtually on, maybe a couple of pips below, 12 year downtrend line. So the previous week seems it may have been a false break above the major down trend? My chart, as near as I can make it, shows the last 4H wick exactly touched trend line, closed 4 pips under. So, technically, broke the trend line , retested,...
your right. I misspoke.. I probably meant day. 1840 was on the brain. Its a bearish harami. Bearish into support. The thing is, it has to break support. so near support it may be best to close the short and consider a long. U can do this blindly with a reasonable stop. But if the day closes below 1690 consider it will drop deeper. Bullish at support until broken, and closed below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,930
  • Aug 22, 2020 11:14am Aug 22, 2020 11:14am
Quoting Blackopal
GU closed slightly above weekly down trend from 2014 last week (same as EU but shorter time scale on trend line for GU). This week closed slightly above the down trend line, but with Very bearish pin bar with long top wick. On 4H a double top, price closed on neck line of M. On daily, engulfed bear candle. Overall, slightly indecisive, tittering on brink of break down, similar to EU. One note, just for FYI. During the last few weeks, at the beginning of large moves, up and down, I've spotted several times one currency or another, with the USD, significantly...

Good observation. Maybe it can keep up for a while but then the market catches it, also a sign to me maybe regarding the pound, that it is not fully "market" driven in the sense that it can be controlled by some few....

I am waiting for the same reaction to AUD USD and AUD JPY. However in my view AUD is still stuck to the SP500 index, why i dont really get but just a observation after 6 months daily trading (and no, not really follwing the metals etc as one would belive).

Also catched this short on GU but not in a good way, i got itchy fingers already on thursday after the intial drop and went short at average xx60 got caught in a nasty drawdown before i went into positive. . Saved by the bell and bad money managment, but should have been more else..
  • #73,931
  • Aug 23, 2020 12:35am Aug 23, 2020 12:35am
Krikey
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Follow the money --Mark Felt (Deepthroat)
  • #73,932
  • Aug 23, 2020 7:49am Aug 23, 2020 7:49am
hi guys,
repost my chart of GU 4h and daily.

finally 4h chart breakdown ichimoku cloud since 20.7.2020 and last break were for 1 candle and bounce back up.
very mixed week end as bearish pin bar.

my main target is still 1.288 which is the 38.2% of wave 3.. but bulls are here to strike back to the knock out (wave 5)
i will look to short any high i will get till 1.325

4h chart:

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daily chart:

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  • #73,933
  • Aug 23, 2020 4:37pm Aug 23, 2020 4:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
it looks like a wet ass for me next week. {image}
not so bad.. it looks like the 2 storms will hit me. the good news is, its not 3 storms atm. Maybe someone could sharpie them to Alabama.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,934
  • Aug 23, 2020 9:49pm Aug 23, 2020 9:49pm
possible s 1817/29.. as long as 15min continues to close below 1816.6. some support maybe 1785. lets see what happens as either is hit first. it may go to the other.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,935
  • Edited Aug 24, 2020 2:20am Aug 23, 2020 10:38pm | Edited Aug 24, 2020 2:20am
Pending BUY
cancelled
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #73,936
  • Aug 23, 2020 10:54pm Aug 23, 2020 10:54pm
Quoting gatorinla
possible s 1817/29.. as long as 15min continues to close below 1816.6. some support maybe 1785. lets see what happens as either is hit first. it may go to the other.
void with a 15 min close below 1784., stops to b.e.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,937
  • Aug 24, 2020 12:40am Aug 24, 2020 12:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} void with a 15 min close below 1784., stops to b.e.
one may want to pull some off the table 1805 for st scalper. If the close is above 1806. 1817 may be some R.. possible short 1817.. as long as 15 min closes below
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,938
  • Aug 24, 2020 6:15am Aug 24, 2020 6:15am
I fell asleep.. 15 min close above 1829.. 1859/60 and or 1883/84 to be watched. a 4h close below 1776 would favor 4h short, once above 1777 first. once above 1881 a 1h/30 min/15 min, close below 1881 favors bear. So once to 1883/84. see if they hold, or reject. A drop from there may target 1638.. But 1714/1690 is still support until day closed below.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,939
  • Aug 24, 2020 10:57am Aug 24, 2020 10:57am
some 4h support at 1794, 4h probably needs to close below (1h -1787). To drop much. A 4h close above 1819 is probably bear reject (1h + 1843).
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #73,940
  • Aug 24, 2020 11:07am Aug 24, 2020 11:07am
lc Friday was lower than Monday. Week wise 1759/60, or 1883/84 may be reached with this higher lc Monday. Day wise still the same 1714/1690 support. I think it may be tested this week. To test it, a 4h close below 1772 may be needed. Or a 1h below 1761 to start, lead by a 15 min close below 1761. Since lc today was higher. The 1761/72 ish area may be a buy. Possible sell 1859/60 or 1883/84 later.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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