Writing it down gets it out of my head...

week of 7/6/2020
Shorted gj into London open after taking it long for a few pips earlier in Asia. (I was late to Asia session.)
Looking for 20 pips to cover my 19 pip stop loss.
22 pips on half of the lots closed. Stop loss covered.

If I miss the first trade I will typically short again at the edge of the box or into the moving average on the 15 min chart.
Something tells me if I've already closed to cover my stop loss it would be okay to have re-entered here, but I'm okay with being a little more conservative at the beginning of the week.

Will 15 min bearish engulfing candle drive gj lower?

edit: yes it did. the next candle traveled about as many pips as the bearish engulfing candle did.

Will close half of my remaining lots at 1 hour moving average/green hitting yellow on sentiment indicator.

One hour chart target hit at moving average and sentiment indicator green hitting yellow for 32 pips.
3/4 of original lots now closed.

The candle after the 15 min bearish engulfing candle traveled about as far as the engulfing candle body and helped close at the 1 hour moving average and sentiment target. 1/4 of trade left on.

I moved my stop to be+1 and went to bed. My preference is to not move my stop until at least new 15 minute supply or demand boxes have formed, but trend for the week does not normally get set until Tuesday London so I tend to be more conservative in my trading until then.
My entry was at 134.592. Stop was at 134.582. Price went to 135.605.
Price has now fallen in the area of the first hour of trading for around 50 pips from my entry, but I'm okay with that. Now that I'm in profit for the week I can feel more comfortable about leaving my stops on the other side of the sup/dem box until my system allows them to be moved down.

I'm not trying to hit a home run...
1- I'm trying to not strike out (protect my account balance)
2- I'm trying to not get caught stealing second (covering my stop loss by closing half of my trade and having a free trade after that point)
3- I'm trying to hit singles and doubles (closing part of the trade when it hits a larger time frame speed bump...like the 1 hour moving average)
4- I'm allowing for the chance that I'll hit a home run every once in a while (leaving part of the trade on to see if it goes further)

Some suggest closing everything at the end of a session and opening new trades when the next session opens. That works too, but a person needs to sleep sooner or later.

GJ Risk ON?
7 7 20
Took gj long into the Asia pre-open. J bond auction is at 11:30pm eastern so trading might not gain much.
First take profit will be at 30 pips to cover the 30 pip stop. I don't like 30 pip stops. Prefer 8 to 20 pip stops, but the demand box was from yesterday's open and price went into the box during the 5pm settlement time and trading then isn't a good idea with the volatility and wide spread.
I'll monitor this closely to see what happens when price hits the 1 hour moving average as this may be a fake out trade.

War of the moving averages
the Day, 4 hour, 1 hour and 15 min gj charts are all fighting around their moving average.

There was a nice bounce where I added lots when price came back into the 4 hour moving average, the 1 hour demand box and a demand box on top of a demand box on the 15 min chart. A box on top of a box normally means strength, but the Asian session might not be the place that can get the volume needed to move this up like London session has.

I might bail on this and go do something other than trading until London.

Closed all. Taking too long and J has bond offering soon.

Doing a journal helps one recognize things they would not otherwise notice. Tonight I noticed I do no feel comfortable or have very much patience when my stop loss is 30 pips. 8 to 20 is my normal.

Do I think my direction is correct? yes. But, the timing of the trade was not. I'm okay with that and will wait until London to try again. My number 1 job is to keep the money I've already made in my pocket.

"A Bird in the Hand is better than two in the Bush" plus the jingle of a few coins in ones pocket is reassuring...To me anyway
R

And some wine for my friend. Thanks for stopping by Ced74. I hope your health is good and you're trading is even better.

GJ shorted London Open

There is something to be said about sticking with your original trading plan. I had to close and reverse long at 134.48, but close and reverse worked again!

Patience is required in trading. Listening to yourself and doing your system and not letting what someone else says they are doing are very important. This trade is a reminder to myself to never be swayed and to just do my thing.

Are we in the middle of a longer term GJ move up? The chart picture below shows that we've had the same range coming into the first hour of trading (5pm to 6pm eastern/NY) for the last four days in a row. Interesting. I don't know what it means. But, interesting.

Combine that with the blue box in the bottom left corner of the chart, which is where I said the trend changed last week, and maybe we're looking at a continued move up instead of the short bias everyone seems to have for G. Again, I don't know, just coming up with scenarios.

Normally when I see a supply box like is at the top of chart and it's there for several different time frames I think every trade should be a short, but as close as the opposing supply and demand boxes are to each other it could be suggesting we're in the middle of a move up and not at the top of a move down. Also, the 4 hour chart is showing a squeeze starting to form on the sentiment indicator blue bands...if it continues to form it could mean a huge move when it breaks the squeeze.
Time will tell.

Well, time did tell!

Now I KNOW that not only did I get the reversal area on June 29 and 30 correct, but I saw something I've never seen before with the 4 days in a row with the same first hour opening level being the SAME AND I can now recognize a continuation move up from that reversal area and THROUGH MAJOR SUPPY!!!!!

Compare the two charts below. Also, look back at my July 1 chart to see the trend reversal (accumulation long by the big money)!!! I really do love this stuff! (And Tuesday's really seem to be the day to open a swing trade for the week.)

I'm VERY THRILLED about this. It's a new thing for me to see. It's a huge pattern to find...almost like discovering a new planet...although I've never discovered a new planet and have no idea what that feels like. haha.

Is this the cure for covid19?
Covid cure being used in Asia and Texas, including for elderly and people with heart disease, diabetes, asthma, cancer, out of shape, as well as healthy people.

Dow ready to short or ready to blast off?
Decision time for the Dow is coming. It doesn't matter which way it goes. It just matters that I trade in the correct direction.

US Dollar Index Ready to Rally?

Gold: Rejected at the top or new all time highs? Or new all time highs first to fake retailers in and then collapse?

In post 74 on July 7, I mentioned the 4 hour gj chart was starting to squeeze down. When I mention something it means I need to pay attention to it...it's a warning of things to come.

What does a sentiment squeeze mean to a trader? Well, it means if it's squeezing down at the top you're typically going to do a quick up and then it's going to collapse (and vice versa if at the bottom of the sentiment indicator). (Squeezing in the middle is more difficult to judge, but I tend to be ready to go the opposite way of the initial move that ends the squeeze unless the squeeze is a lot of $ reversing like happened June 26, 29 and 30.)

shorted gj into London open. now it's stuck trying to decide to go above or below the low from the first hour of trading. (the first hour of trading is defined as 5pm to 6pm eastern/nyc time.)
closed some to cover 11 pip stop. just waiting now. will close more at 136.07 area if it gets that low.