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WTI Crude Oil Trading

  • #8,401
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:53am Jun 5, 2020 7:53am
Positive $ news made it drop a little bit but it will continue going up.
  • #8,402
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:59am Jun 5, 2020 7:59am
Quoting Kwame Freder
Exited a bit early but grateful

Holding until 55/60
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,403
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:03am Jun 5, 2020 8:03am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Holding until 55/60
My man
  • #8,404
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:08am Jun 5, 2020 8:08am
Unfortunately, the oil from 6 USD now has reached nearly 40 usd a barrel, if I had not suffered a lot of loss about crude oil before, I would not have lost my mind because I did not dare to buy back.
  • #8,405
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:15am Jun 5, 2020 8:15am
Quoting kavanto
Unfortunately, the oil from 6 USD now has reached nearly 40 usd a barrel, if I had not suffered a lot of loss about crude oil before, I would not have lost my mind because I did not dare to buy back.
A lot of people were too scared to buy back oil near 10/15 dollars, they thought its going to 0

Same thing for equities when s&p was 2100/2200, they thought "bear market" & "lets go to 1500" ....look where we are now

Market can drive us crazy
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,406
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:58am Jun 5, 2020 8:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Holding until 55/60
I don’t have the patience or mental strength to trade that way.
  • #8,407
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:42am Jun 5, 2020 9:42am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Holding until 55/60
What instrument are you using for such long term trades? Because the current futures will expire in 2 weeks.
  • #8,408
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:47am Jun 5, 2020 9:47am
Price action indicating more up today but I doubt it. Probably just teeing up traders to jump in and get stuck.
  • #8,409
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:49am Jun 5, 2020 9:49am
Quoting atom3
{quote} What instrument are you using for such long term trades? Because the current futures will expire in 2 weeks.
ETF for my commodities bets, no leverage, low commissions, you can technically hold it forever
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,410
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:28am Jun 5, 2020 10:28am
Quoting kavanto
Unfortunately, the oil from 6 USD now has reached nearly 40 usd a barrel, if I had not suffered a lot of loss about crude oil before, I would not have lost my mind because I did not dare to buy back.
I am in the same boat to be honest. Started with intention on holding long term to 40 but freaked out seeing price to go below 0. Had enough funds to hold it to 0 but my broker told me they didnt know what would happen if price went negative. Would be still in and would have made ton of money instead of losing had it never gone below 0. In hindsight, it's easy to see I should have hold but did what I though was right at the time. Whether it was rational at the time or not, I don't know and won't stop beating myself over this for a very long time.
  • #8,411
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:34am Jun 5, 2020 10:34am
Quoting tonny47
{quote} I am in the same boat to be honest. Started with intention on holding long term to 40 but freaked out seeing price to go below 0. Had enough funds to hold it to 0 but my broker .... I though was right at the time. Whether it was rational at the time or not, I don't know and won't stop beating myself over this for a very long time.
Just don't, it's part of the business ! You win, you lose, like every in every business.

I took a beatdown this week with the euro, i moved on and focus on other things


On a side note, i'll be waiting for the COT report and see what the market participants are seeing
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,412
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:38am Jun 5, 2020 10:38am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Just don't, it's part of the business ! You win, you lose, like every in every business. I took a beatdown this week with the euro, i moved on and focus on other things On a side note, i'll be waiting for the COT report and see what the market participants are seeing
honestly, waited for the low oil to drop for months. didnt know how it would happen. And then went crazy big, because i thought i couldnt get worse than 0... very painful lesson which is going to take me very long time to recover. But nothing i can do about it at this point. The ship of low oil price has sailed
  • #8,413
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:39am Jun 5, 2020 10:39am
Quoting tonny47
{quote} I am in the same boat to be honest. Started with intention on holding long term to 40 but freaked out seeing price to go below 0. Had enough funds to hold it to 0 but my broker told me they didnt know what would happen if price went negative. Would be still in and would have made ton of money instead of losing had it never gone below 0. In hindsight, it's easy to see I should have hold but did what I though was right at the time. Whether it was rational at the time or not, I don't know and won't stop beating myself over this for a very long...
don't beat yourself up many tried to hold longs from $30, $20 $10 etc and got badly burnt. it was a very volatile uncertain time, still a lot of opportunity to make money, lots of room for it to go upwards
  • #8,414
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:41am Jun 5, 2020 10:41am
reminds me of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
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  • #8,415
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:57am Jun 5, 2020 11:57am
Quoting tonny47
{quote} honestly, waited for the low oil to drop for months. didnt know how it would happen. And then went crazy big, because i thought i couldnt get worse than 0... very painful lesson which is going to take me very long time to recover. But nothing i can do about it at this point. The ship of low oil price has sailed
I feel you because i have been waiting for low prices too, and i didn't load as low as i wanted.

Don't focus on oil only. You have cash left ? Then look at other cheap assets, other commodities, some are cheap are can rise as much as oil

There are thousand of asset to invest into, don't focus on one man
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,416
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:11pm Jun 5, 2020 12:11pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I feel you because i have been waiting for low prices too, and i didn't load as low as i wanted. Don't focus on oil only. You have cash left ? Then look at other cheap assets, other commodities, some are cheap are can rise as much as oil There are thousand of asset to invest into, don't focus on one man
been following oil for months very closely. don't know what's going on with other commodities to be honest.

Happy to hear any suggestions though
  • #8,417
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:43pm Jun 5, 2020 12:43pm
Quoting tonny47
{quote} been following oil for months very closely. don't know what's going on with other commodities to be honest. Happy to hear any suggestions though
if you like energy, check natural gas, lately its very cheap

Else have a look at the coffee commodity, there are 10%+ swings monthly.
2 things to consider while trading coffee : 1/ BE for producers is around 140 dollars (price is currently 100 dollars), 2/ Coffee is in a bearish trend for a decade (because of the over production but it always bounce hard to save up producers)

you can check lean hogs, its around 50 dollars now, bounced roughly 90% within a month.
Check live cattle as well, very volatile, lots of good opportunities there

Dig into the commodites found on the COT report, i'm sure you'll find your love
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #8,418
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:15pm Jun 5, 2020 1:15pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} if you like energy, check natural gas, lately its very cheap Else have a look at the coffee commodity, there are 10%+ swings monthly.
NatGas is very cheap right now. I've been tracking it for a while over in this thread: https://www.energyexch.com/showthrea...0#post12981310
We must learn who is gold, and who is gold plated
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  • #8,419
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:20pm Jun 5, 2020 1:20pm
OPEC+ meeting is Saturday which sets up some risk for a gap next week at the open. While there's a lot more risk in OPEC+ failing to come to an agreement, the likelihood is small. They'll most likely finalize the production cuts which sets up crude for maybe some more upside potential, perhaps $45 level.

Even though supply has been dealt with, there's still some longer term demand issues related to less travel, slower economies, etc. I still don't see enough fundamental support to go long at these levels.

It's also hard to have a lot of confidence in a rally with such weak volume.
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  • #8,420
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:48pm Jun 5, 2020 1:48pm
wti will be over $40 in a week or two which for me is $5.00 away. Its aggressively bullish, would like a nice dip early next week to go long.
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