Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2469 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,361
  • Jun 1, 2020 3:51am Jun 1, 2020 3:51am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} that trade finished hours ago!! Billy says 'go for 5'......it's going for more and being greedy that doesn't work!!??
noted with thanks
  • #49,362
  • Edited 4:12am Jun 1, 2020 4:01am | Edited 4:12am
Quoting Wellington
{quote} Lol - living the high life down in the New Forest Ok, I get that it is the one trade - it's basically locking in a 'maximum' loss - in this instance 25 pips - without actually taking the loss as you would with a stop, then waiting for some profitable future trades to help you unwind it. Either way, you're still going to need 5 of the regular trades as I mention above to be able to unwind this for b/e at some stage...Or, as you say "till the end of time if you wish" you could[/highlight]...
Weeeeeelllllllll...yes...and no.

Of course you are right in a purely a+a=2a blah, blah, blah. However, one of the things you are forgetting is that Billy didn't just pick that bar out of thin air. He has frequency distribution stats up the wazoo. These show that - among other things - if we have a fail, then there is a very strong statistical edge in our favour, in that the reverse break won't just faff around with a small move underneath but will go long and usually easily recoup any float. That is the very basic, basic info.

Personally, I would never have a floating loss of -25 and I can almost guarantee that Billy wouldn't either. I won't, however speak any more for him, he's a big boy and can speak for himself but for me, my counter would have begun at the upper level of the candle body, either the Open or the Close. I will actively manage micro-trades in that body zone, using S+D for one and will almost immediately begin to unwind that (at this point possible) negative. Should - in my case - the trade not reverse all the way back out the Low, then I will stack into the return journey back up as well (what Billy would cal his retrace trade and I, a Wick-Zone). Two different shades of the same colour.

All that matters, is that at the end of the day/week, we end up green. Triggers can be anywhere - just draw a random line-in-the-sand - then manage what happens after that.

Remember Billy's quote up above? How, to paraphrase... ''What we do, the experts say shouldn't work''? Well, that's the bottom line here. Just...Win...Baby!

Bet you're sorry you asked now...
  • #49,363
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:08am Jun 1, 2020 4:08am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} great trading! Lem you said something the other day (I think it was you lol) along the lines of 'you don't like being exposed to the market' which has made me think.... How long would you say your average trade is? Cheers
Howdeeee stranger, good to see you back on board.

Yeah, that would be me.

I have no idea officially but I reckon it is between seconds and a few minutes.

If I am on a momo-train, then I will be stacking like a mad man and so the early trades in that line will have been in for quite a while, certainly if it's a run that covers a whole session, for instance, like the UK100, NASDAQ, US30 have a tendency to do.

Conversely, if I am really working it and I am in a run but get a pullback, I will either close the early ones and re-enter once we get back on track, or I will add counters on the pullback, leaving the early ones open, to really maximise the gain from any big move.

It's been a while since I maxed out a play like that though, as I am not able to devote the numb-ass time at the moment but this is the kind of thing I show over in The Other Galaxy.
  • #49,364
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:08am Jun 1, 2020 4:08am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Weeeeeelllllllll...yes...and no. Of course you are right in a purely a+a=2a blah, blah, blah. However, one of the things you are forgetting is that Billy didn't just pick that bar out of thin air. He has frequency distribution stats up the wazoo. These show that - among other things - if we have a fail, then there is a very strong statistical edge in our favour, in that the reverse break won't just faff around with a small move underneath but will go long and usually easily recoup any float. That is the very basic, basic info. Personally,...
Thanks for opening the window for me to peep. Need to digest it now
  • #49,365
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:10am Jun 1, 2020 4:10am
Quoting mrcreosote
LINES! Draw LINES! White lines are ok but not on a white background....so we have red lines inverted head n shoulders? {image}
I prefer black lines on a black background. Much easier on the eyes.

Head and Shoulders? Haven't had that in my bathroom for 20 years now.

I'm more likely to use wood varnish
  • #49,366
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:40am Jun 1, 2020 4:40am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hellooooooooo there. You're too late. Billy has been and bagged and will be off hunting renegade gnomes in the glade by now. He will no doubt be back for lunch and cider. Until then... I won't go into the specifics of how Billy counters - I do it slightly differently - as the very question was answered here last week. However, the one thing you have to get right - and most new here get wrong initially - is that you are treating the counter as a separate trade. It isn't. The counter is there to lock in the first trade should it go bad. That...
Thank you Lem,, hope you are well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,367
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:45am Jun 1, 2020 4:45am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Thank you Lem,, hope you are well.
Cheers, Billy. How's it down in the forest? They reckon it's the hottest day of the year so far here and I totally believe it. Don't know how much longer I will chug along here. Lunch is calling, lol.

Probably check The Dead Zone and take it from there.

Have a good 'un.
  • #49,368
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:45am Jun 1, 2020 4:45am
Quoting Wellington
{quote} Hey Billy, hope you're well pal (and everyone else on this thread) Thought I'd chat to you here as it seems more geared toward your breakout strategy than JB thread and telegram. So in this instance, with the bar range being 25, am I right in thinking you would need to have 5 'regular' size and target (ie 5 pips) winners just to make enough to b/e and close the counter, or am I missing something...(like the secret sauce )
Hi W,
on paper what I do will not work.
If you believe what they tell you about trading and money management MM, you will lose..
Lem has posted an eloquent answer.
FIRST, I have good odds of making 5 points.
If it fails I add a counter and I still go for 5points which equates 5%.
So today as an example, I could be on a -25 counter plus a +5%.
I want the 5% first, then I work on the counter.

I take all of this as part of a trade, like the champion Boxer, he may get hit a few times but he waits for the kill.
Trade well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,369
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:53am Jun 1, 2020 4:53am
Quoting Wellington
{quote} Lol - living the high life down in the New Forest Ok, I get that it is the one trade - it's basically locking in a 'maximum' loss - in this instance 25 pips - without actually taking the loss as you would with a stop, then waiting for some profitable future trades to help you unwind it. Either way, you're still going to need 5 of the regular trades as I mention above to be able to unwind this for b/e at some stage...Or, as you say "till the end of time if you wish" you could hold a £2500 floating loss while consistently taking...
Hi W, I have said this many times, what you say is correct, a loss is a loss. (look up loss leader in Walmart/Tescos etc)
With a counter , I will play them against each other.
My forte' is fixing a fail, that is where more money is made.
I trade, I retrace trade, I add on, I compound, I will even play inside bars on the 4 hour/daily AND I chase the daily range.
All this is part of the trade.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,370
  • Jun 1, 2020 4:56am Jun 1, 2020 4:56am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Weeeeeelllllllll...yes...and no. Of course you are right in a purely a+a=2a blah, blah, blah. However, one of the things you are forgetting is that Billy didn't just pick that bar out of thin air. He has frequency distribution stats up the wazoo. These show that - among other things - if we have a fail, then there is a very strong statistical edge in our favour, in that the reverse break won't just faff around with a small move underneath but will go long and usually easily recoup any float. That is the very basic, basic info. Personally,...
another good reply post Lem.
A counter is a counter.
ahem, I have been known to counter before a fail lol shhhhhhhhhhhhh with a big range.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,371
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:25am Jun 1, 2020 5:25am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Weeeeeelllllllll...yes...and no. Of course you are right in a purely a+a=2a blah, blah, blah. However, one of the things you are forgetting is that Billy didn't just pick that bar out of thin air. He has frequency distribution stats up the wazoo. These show that - among other things - if we have a fail, then there is a very strong statistical edge in our favour, in that the reverse break won't just faff around with a small move underneath but will go long and usually easily recoup any float. That is the very basic, basic info. Personally,...
Hahahahahaha - never sorry, always learning What you've said here is an eye opener. Thanks, I appreciate it
  • #49,372
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:26am Jun 1, 2020 5:26am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi W, I have said this many times, what you say is correct, a loss is a loss. (look up loss leader in Walmart/Tescos etc) With a counter , I will play them against each other. My forte' is fixing a fail, that is where more money is made. I trade, I retrace trade, I add on, I compound, I will even play inside bars on the 4 hour/daily AND I chase the daily range. All this is part of the trade.
Thanks Billy - just trying to grasp the nuts and bolts. I know that trading the break is the easy bit...
  • #49,373
  • Jun 1, 2020 5:54am Jun 1, 2020 5:54am
How did I end up on EA??? Who trades this stuff, lol.

Ah, only joshing all you Ozzstraylyanz out there. (Almost moved there once, a decade or so ago. Had an offer from a couple of peeps. A rather lovely female sports climber for one. Ah, Kerry...

Couldn't make up my mind which one...so went with neither, lol...as you do. I still fancy New Zealand...well I did. Not so much now, for various reasons, all too boring to go into here).

Anyhoooooo...EA. Ignore the mental colours and shiny objects, I am just spending time pulling stuff out of random dusty cupboards and chucking them on for giggles. The basic ins-and-outs of entries are just the same as always.

EA 5-min Some chart or another, who knows... +9.2

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I need to change that chart now though...it's hurting my eyes.
  • #49,374
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:04am Jun 1, 2020 6:04am
Back on more familiar ground, with the US30.

US30 5-min via The Spiders From Mars +7.1

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  • #49,375
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:09am Jun 1, 2020 6:09am
Quoting lemercenaire
Back on more familiar ground, with the US30. US30 5-min via The Spiders From Mars +7.1 {image}
Why not just save a few templates - be much easier. Just a thought.

Back on the horses - yaaaaaay as Billy would say. First two races not even a place lol. Too hot for the poor horses.
  • #49,376
  • Jun 1, 2020 6:22am Jun 1, 2020 6:22am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Why not just save a few templates - be much easier. Just a thought. Back on the horses - yaaaaaay as Billy would say. First two races not even a place lol. Too hot for the poor horses.
I have a collection that probably includes 10 million templates...that is only a very slight exaggeration.

I had a look at the horses...nah, I'm lying. I forgot. Probably just as well, lol.
  • #49,377
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:01am Jun 1, 2020 7:01am
Final play(s) of the day, as I am going to go pick up my other half from her office now.

Nice way to bag it for the day.

GU 1-min WalMal +10.2 +11.4 [+21.6]

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Overview 15 min

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  • #49,378
  • Jun 1, 2020 7:50am Jun 1, 2020 7:50am
turned out to be a nice line that one
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,379
  • Jun 1, 2020 8:04am Jun 1, 2020 8:04am
this song here, first released in 1974! OMG it's still modern!!
I always sing 'fun fun fun of der autobahn' even though the German is actually fahr'n auf der Autobahn, quite similar
Long version
Inserted Video
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,380
  • Jun 1, 2020 8:07am Jun 1, 2020 8:07am
I am confused, is it +5% or +5 Pips?
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