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The Swamp

  • #60,361
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:03am Apr 21, 2020 3:03am
Quoting xav
{quote} Yes?
So anyone holding a contract today has to settle. With a big red number. They were all running for the turnstile at the same time..

some were left w/o a chair.

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,362
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:03am Apr 21, 2020 3:03am
Quoting xav
{quote} One can trade oil as well as other commodities without expiration and physical delivery at several brokers. For example Oanda. I'm not sure however I'd invest in his time horizon with a broker like that. Theoretically one can break down a 20-year investment into shorter periods/movements that would be more manageable and trade those. However, the introduction of negative asset prices mean that you don't have a "rock bottom" price any more: you long @20 and if it goes to -40 you didn't lose your investment you lost triple that (talking about...

all this brokers have trading instruments that have a specific assets
and i am not sure if everybody understand but wti can also trade negative or go to 0 so is closing any "investment" that you make

speculating - the more correct term - on WTI right now is dumb. you can also lose all your money
etf could mean the same thing. and once they blow up again you don't have any money left. just watch what will hapen with USO.
doesn't reflect the price anymore since every month is loosing money because of rollover.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,363
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:04am Apr 21, 2020 3:04am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Eur added 0840
out 0830 +10... my next TP 0822 and then 0815
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  • #60,364
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:09am Apr 21, 2020 3:09am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} all this brokers have trading instruments that have a specific assets and i am not sure if everybody understand but wti can also trade negative or go to 0 so is closing any "investment" that you make
a wtf moment

Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,365
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:12am Apr 21, 2020 3:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} today is delivery correct? So when they ask, where do you want it?.. You have to say here, along with transport cost.. If you have no place to put it.. Find a cardboard box to live in.
stranger things have happened.
Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,366
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:18am Apr 21, 2020 3:18am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} So anyone holding a contract today has to settle. With a big red number. They were all running for the turnstile at the same time.. some were left w/o a chair. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJDWKvsmhss
I understand why it went negative it's just so bizzarre that commodity prices no longer have the rock bottom set at "0". Conventional wisdom was that you can buy a commodity in a non-leveraged account and worst case scenario is that you lose your investment. Not any more. I guess after real estate, government bonds and now commodities, everything can have a negative price which means you cannot own anything on the long run without the danger of of owing a multiple of what that asset is worth. I never was a fan of long-term investing, but after this, damn...
  • #60,367
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:21am Apr 21, 2020 3:21am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} new h close in 5 min (0829)
change to 0824... day is 0824,, week 0829.. h close below 0824 stronger. Some possible R if lost later 0824/29
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,368
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:22am Apr 21, 2020 3:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} today is delivery correct? So when they ask, where do you want it?.. You have to say here, along with transport cost.. If you have no place to put it.. Find a cardboard box to live in.
haha or failing that, prepare to nurse a couple of broken knee caps.
  • #60,369
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:23am Apr 21, 2020 3:23am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} all this brokers have trading instruments that have a specific assets and i am not sure if everybody understand but wti can also trade negative or go to 0 so is closing any "investment" that you make speculating - the more correct term - on WTI right now is dumb. you can also lose all your money etf could mean the same thing. and once they blow up again you don't have any money left. just watch what will hapen with USO. doesn't reflect the price anymore since every month is loosing money because of rollover.
You're right, a broker can margin call you at any time. So if you went long @20 they can margin call you at -40. Even if your account is an old fashioned non-margin, non-leveraged one. I was making the case against long term investing (20-30 year horizon like the dude was commenting before) but i guess we can agree to include the present time as well. Or, as per gator, if you have empty storage for it for the next several months. (But then you wouldn't ask these questions here, lol)
  • #60,370
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:26am Apr 21, 2020 3:26am
Quoting xav
{quote} I understand why it went negative it's just so bizzarre that commodity prices no longer have the rock bottom set at "0". Conventional wisdom was that you can buy a commodity in a non-leveraged account and worst case scenario is that you lose your investment. Not any more. I guess after real estate, government bonds and now commodities, everything can have a negative price which means you cannot own anything on the long run without the danger of of owing a multiple of what that asset is worth. I never was a fan of long-term investing, but...
it's not investing.
investment means something else. it's speculating or gambling without people knowing what they are actually gambling on

also

if i have a product that cost a lot to store or to have all the legal documents for me to store it so it' cost let's say 20.000 eur
the product is worthless and i have nowhere to store and if i had it cost 20.000 eur

would i give 250 eur to my neighbor just to move that 20.000 debt in his courtyard ?

same thing. with money

i am paying the bank a fee to store my money and guard them .

we are in a negative world. and with all intervention maybe it's just the beginning.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,371
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:29am Apr 21, 2020 3:29am
Quoting xav
{quote} You're right, a broker can margin call you at any time. So if you went long @20 they can margin call you at -40. Even if your account is an old fashioned non-margin, non-leveraged one. I was making the case against long term investing (20-30 year horizon like the dude was commenting before) but i guess we can agree to include the present time as well. Or, as per gator, if you have empty storage for it for the next several months. (But then you wouldn't ask these questions here, lol)
i can bet the brokers have no idea what happens in this situation from the beginning of futs contract in 1983 nothing like this happen

also can all of them take the loss ? look at what happen to this Trader

his father build the business years ago and disappear in days ...

now tell me how many lost money yesterday today ? this is not something that will go easy

https://www.straitstimes.com/busines...st-425-billion
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,372
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:32am Apr 21, 2020 3:32am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} it's not investing. investment means something else. it's speculating or gambling without people knowing what they are actually gambling on also if i have a product that cost a lot to store or to have all the legal documents for me to store it so it' cost let's say 20.000 eur the product is worthless and i have nowhere to store and if i had it cost 20.000 eur would i give 250 eur to my neighbor just to move that 20.000 debt in his courtyard ? same thing. with money i am paying the bank a fee to store my money and guard them . we are in a...
Sure. Things that in the past decade had negative net worth: real estate, government bonds, commodities, cash. We can throw out all econ books & degrees. I'm waiting for stock prices to go -. Maybe when a muppet forbids short selling it'll happen. Also, wonder what the next "safe haven" will be that they will try to sell the masses on?
  • #60,373
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:34am Apr 21, 2020 3:34am
ok so now US can't refuse oil coming into US because Saudi's are sending it to Texas on their refineries because they have and control some of them

nice game of chess.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #60,374
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:37am Apr 21, 2020 3:37am
Quoting xav
{quote} I understand why it went negative it's just so bizzarre that commodity prices no longer have the rock bottom set at "0". Conventional wisdom was that you can buy a commodity in a non-leveraged account and worst case scenario is that you lose your investment. Not any more. I guess after real estate, government bonds and now commodities, everything can have a negative price which means you cannot own anything on the long run without the danger of of owing a multiple of what that asset is worth. I never was a fan of long-term...
its oil.. its hazardous. you can't dump it on the ground. it takes $ to move it and money to guard/store it.. Your only talking about the paper behind it, bought at a desk, as a speculator. Your fingernails are clean. You buy your meat in a clean store already packaged. Meat has to be killed and processed. To truly understand the process. You have to have hunted. Conventional wisdom is just habit. Dairy cows walk to the barn twice a day to get milked out of habit. One day the the gate to the barn will be shut, and the old cow loaded on a trailer to make a Micky dee pattie. That's conventional wisdom too. Things change.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,375
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:39am Apr 21, 2020 3:39am
Quoting swd
{quote} haha or failing that, prepare to nurse a couple of broken knee caps.
LOL my people give broken knee caps..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,376
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:44am Apr 21, 2020 3:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} LOL my people give broken knee caps..
Too right, it's a different world to what "traders" live in behind desks. I've heard stories, if contract comes to settle and they don't have the goods to fulfil the contract, jees. Better watch out.
  • #60,377
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:47am Apr 21, 2020 3:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} probably need a close below 0829.7 on h, to drop more. After 1 h, larger tf below 0829, may help any drop.. 0829.7 is a week s/r.. the month one lower at 0777, month higher 0899..week R 0880. below 0829 opens up some drop room. week/month wise {image}
still no close below 0829.. 0824 stronger day..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #60,378
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:53am Apr 21, 2020 3:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} still no close below 0829.. 0824 stronger day.. {image}
i should've close it at 0824 hope i get more chance. i want to take it higher
  • #60,379
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:54am Apr 21, 2020 3:54am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} i should've close it at 0824 hope i get more chance. i want to take it higher
5 min 5 pips - we can make it
  • #60,380
  • Apr 21, 2020 3:56am Apr 21, 2020 3:56am
Quoting gatenio
{quote} 5 min 5 pips - we can make it
I missed that my TP by spread
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