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  • #1,166,741
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:12am Apr 17, 2020 9:12am
I am out of my trade +20 only today, 1.0905 is caping the upside.

End of the week closing of positions caused EU to retrace a bit, Monday is far away and I think this is trying to change trend, but we should see a retrace near 1.0850-40 I believe.

It wasn't a bad week it had plenty of pips to profit to the downside, stay well.

Great weekend!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,166,742
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:12am Apr 17, 2020 9:12am
Quoting Techanalyst
Still holding same buy position on EURUSD. Waiting for COT reports later on to see if there are more longs.
Was about to say the same thing
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,166,743
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:21am Apr 17, 2020 9:21am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} I would recommend not to go opposite of what banks, institutions, asset managers and so on do. But it is your choice.
Long term, I agree. But short term, I have to disagree. So far I have mostly seen price move in the opposite direction of dominant Non-Commercial positions, likely because of what one other FF user has pointed out—that by the time the COT report comes out, the smart money is moving in the opposite direction.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,166,744
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:31am Apr 17, 2020 9:31am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Long term, I agree. But short term, I have to disagree. So far I have mostly seen price move in the opposite direction of dominant Non-Commercial positions, likely because of what one other FF user has pointed out—that by the time the COT report comes out, the smart money is moving in the opposite direction.
No does not work like that. The report comes out on Tuesday for the institutions. We get it on Fridays. They will not close their positions in 3 days. It is a longer term. So you have to be patient. I have done it many times. It works. But it is your choice, it's your money.
  • #1,166,745
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:34am Apr 17, 2020 9:34am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} No does not work like that. The report comes out on Tuesday for the institutions. We get it on Fridays. They will not close their positions in 3 days. It is a longer term. So you have to be patient. I have done it many times. It works. But it is your choice, it's your money.
Well, I meant by the time it comes out for us (retail traders).
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,166,746
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:40am Apr 17, 2020 9:40am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Well, I meant by the time it comes out for us (retail traders).
Sure. You're talking about looking at the charts and pretty much take the opportunity whatever it gives you there. True, that works too on shorter term i agree.
  • #1,166,747
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:45am Apr 17, 2020 9:45am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote}...It is a longer term. So you have to be patient. I have done it many times. It works...
I don't disagree. I believe it mostly works for you because you use it in combination with areas of supply and demand from higher time frames. That does require patience. And I think that is the key to using the COT report successfully trading long term.

But short term, I think it is better to use it as a contrarian indicator, keeping in mind the dominant position of Non-Commercial traders. If they are long and I see a strong buy signal, then I will buy. But I am not going to sit around waiting for it. If an opportunity to short shows up, I'm taking it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,166,748
  • Apr 17, 2020 9:57am Apr 17, 2020 9:57am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I don't disagree. I believe it mostly works for you because you use it in combination with areas of supply and demand from higher time frames. That does require patience. And I think that is the key to using the COT report successfully trading long term. But short term, I think it is better to use it as a contrarian indicator, keeping in mind the dominant position of Non-Commercial traders. If they are long and I see a strong buy signal, then I will buy. But I am not going to sit around waiting for it. If an opportunity to short shows up,...
Never use it as a contrarian, you'll get hurt badly. Just saying.

Its obvious if you use only COT without even looking at the chart you'll get hurt, but like any system right ? will use your MACD or bitcoin negative correlation without looking at the EURO chart? No way!!

Same thing goes for the COT report. And this 3 days delay is an advantage...if you have a deep look at it, you'll understand it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,166,749
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:11am Apr 17, 2020 10:11am
Quoting here2there
What a MESS! EURUSD is like a marriage gone wrong and in the middle of a bad divorce. {image}
Perfect analogy!
  • #1,166,750
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:14am Apr 17, 2020 10:14am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Never use it as a contrarian, you'll get hurt badly. Just saying. Its obvious if you use only COT without even looking at the chart you'll get hurt, but like any system right ? will use your MACD or bitcoin negative correlation without looking at the EURO chart? No way!! Same thing goes for the COT report. And this 3 days delay is an advantage...if you have a deep look at it, you'll understand it
I think you are not understanding what I mean about using it as a contrarian indicator.

The idea is to lean more towards doing the opposite of what the report says short term. There is a reason why supply and demand trading works. Knowing how supply and demand works in the Forex market and why it is necessary is key here. It's about filling orders.

Yes, Non-Commercial traders may be buyers long term, but orders must be filled short term in order for brokers to make money, which means price will move in the opposite direction to suck retail traders in and trap most of them. It's important to keep this in mind when using the COT report for trading.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,166,751
  • Apr 17, 2020 10:46am Apr 17, 2020 10:46am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I think you are not understanding what I mean about using it as a contrarian indicator. The idea is to lean more towards doing the opposite of what the report says short term. There is a reason why supply and demand trading works. Knowing how supply and demand works in the Forex market and why it is necessary is key here. It's about filling orders. Yes, Non-Commercial traders may be buyers long term, but orders must be filled short term in order for brokers to make money, which means price will move in the opposite direction to suck retail...
Not sure you can spot that only by looking at the non-commercials

If you go deep down into it, have a look at the disagreggated report maybe. More informations there
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,166,752
  • Apr 17, 2020 11:33am Apr 17, 2020 11:33am
Quoting LifeTrading
Variant 2 If the price will fall from now, then the levels will not be relevant for sales. {image}
Second variant worked very accurate. Further move can be up to the level of 1.09283.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Variant 2 price may go down to the range 1.07465-1.07158.
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  • #1,166,753
  • Apr 17, 2020 11:53am Apr 17, 2020 11:53am
I AM OUT !
this is not going well
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yes yes yes
  • #1,166,754
  • Edited 1:55pm Apr 17, 2020 1:28pm | Edited 1:55pm
COT reports are out. Bullish are in favor. Adding more longs and holding it for longer term. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx COTEUR.xlsx   9 KB | 232 downloads
  • #1,166,755
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:18pm Apr 17, 2020 2:18pm
Quoting Techanalyst
COT reports are out. Bullish are in favor. Adding more longs and holding it for longer term. Trade safe. {file} {image}
I expect more bearish activity, but I will be watchful for bullish opportunities.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,166,756
  • Apr 17, 2020 2:40pm Apr 17, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting Moty
{quote} over daily r1 , i need to leave room for dx to close the gap , nearly there {image} {image} {image}
Thanks!
  • #1,166,757
  • Edited Apr 18, 2020 9:38am Apr 17, 2020 9:23pm | Edited Apr 18, 2020 9:38am
Looking forward to more trades next week. After contemplating it over beer and barbeque tonight I like to think myself as a surfer. I know where the waves are(MA's and MACD 4H), I know where the shore is. I take my board and jump on the wave(dip/rally 30M) based on MA's and MACD and ride towards shore. When I get close to shore I get off(TP). While I paddle back out for another wave, I do not guess where I stop paddling(against trend), but wait for the next wave to ride.(4H trend,30M Wave) Keep it simple, keep it profitable. See you next week, hope everyone makes a lot of pips.
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,166,758
  • Apr 18, 2020 2:33am Apr 18, 2020 2:33am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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yes yes yes
  • #1,166,759
  • Apr 18, 2020 4:50am Apr 18, 2020 4:50am
Is their euro index chart messed up here?

https://fr.investing.com/indices/inv....com-eur-index
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,166,760
  • Apr 18, 2020 11:56am Apr 18, 2020 11:56am
Any thoughts on this scenario...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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