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Bronco Capital's ABCD Harmonic Pattern Journal 94 replies

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The Bucking Bronco

  • #4,681
  • Edited 11:47pm Apr 10, 2020 9:08pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting EddyL
Have you read this? I've gone through about a quarter of it this morning and it doesn't seem to be much use...
Quoting Jupiter
I say it again: imagination and visualization are essential for a successful training.
"It doesn't seem to be much use."
I read and re-read this sentence and I will use this post as an example of average retailer's condition.

With attention and respect I ask myself what EddyL sees and what he doesn't see.
I ask myself about what he is looking for, what he needs, what he would like to see ...

The Dow articles collected in that book are fundamental because they establish the principles of:
> definition and determination of the concept of Movement (Dow never uses the term Trend, it's not his word!)
> wheels inside wheels (swings inside swings as said by Dow)
> buy pull back in a trend
> cut losses
> stop loss
> market sentiment and psychology ... etcetera.
For the first time in the history these concepts are exposed to the masses in a series of newspaper articles.

Quoting EddyL
It actually reminds me of "buy the dip" keep averaging down in an uptrend...
"Buy Pull Back in a Up Trend" is something totally different from "Catching a falling knife".
Dow is extremely rigorous in his definition of continuation of the movement and on when cutting losses.
All is connected to his definition of three movements.

All is written there, in that book. Black on white.

Where is the problem if a reader didn't catch it?
Where is the problem if a reader fails to extract a concept from a book, a sentence, a statement?
What does a retailer feel he needs? What would he want?
Why is everything so difficult (or seems, appears difficult) when it comes to talking about trading?
  • #4,682
  • Edited 4:33am Apr 11, 2020 12:39am | Edited 4:33am
The essential simple structure: price moves in waves.
This path of least resistance is determined by the always underlying and usually unseen structure of the Cycle.
Speaking in general, I'm often not able to count the subwaves properly (due to extensions, truncations, complex retracements and other typical troubles).
But I don't care.
Moreover, my main problem is the conjunction between different Cycles when counting the subwaves...
so I stay to the main structure or I jump directly to the micro candlesticks structure (the mythical retailers' noise, ROFL) that is my real bread and butter!
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  • #4,683
  • Edited 11:21pm Apr 11, 2020 9:11pm | Edited 11:21pm
The Wave Principle.
“... action in the same direction as the one larger trend develops in five waves. ...”
“... reaction against the one larger trend develops in three waves. ...”

The Mental Road Map.
Observe ---> Orient
Evaluation (High Probability Move) ---> Fast OODA Loops ---> Adaptation to the Market reality!

Here are five ways the Wave Principle can benefit us and improve our trading:
1. The Wave Principle identifies the Trend.
2. It identifies countertrend price moves within the larger Trend.
3. It determines the maturity of the Trend.
4. It provides high-confidence price targets.
5. It provides specific points of invalidation.

In essence, it is a particular form of Pattern Recognition.
2 patterns of impulsive waves
3 basic patterns of corrective waves
I am talking about educated, rational, conscious, scientific Trading not about crystalballing guessing game.
Technical Analysis is a language.
And the better we understand the language of Technical Analysis... the better we'll be able to understand the language of Mother Market.

Waves 3, 5, A, and C are the most advantageous to trade, because they are oriented in the direction of the one larger trend.
Odds favor traders who are long in bull markets (and short in bear markets).
Overall, trading in the direction of the trend is the path of least resistance.
The Wave Principle helps to identify these high-confidence trades in place of lesser-confidence setups that traders should ignore.
Remember, five-wave moves determine the direction of the larger trend, while three-wave moves offer traders an opportunity to join the trend.
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  • #4,684
  • Apr 11, 2020 11:49pm Apr 11, 2020 11:49pm
Brett Steenbarger again. One of my preferred author.

"Trading, indeed, is a microcosm of life.
If you long to develop yourself, as a person and as a trader, search high and low for the immortals.
Find the heroes and heroines who have lived their lives with passion, nourishing all who have come in contact with them.
Discover those who have lived, breathed, and studied the markets, enriching the world with their ideas.
Then hoist them on your shoulders, remaining ever mindful of your debt.
You will be surprised how high you stand, how far you can see…In our debts to others, we find the true measure of our wealth."
  • #4,685
  • Edited 4:49am Apr 12, 2020 12:36am | Edited 4:49am
My considerations about the Wave Structure on the chart posted by dbrown101 on TAF #61051.
EURUSD March 24...
Of course I prefer to visualize the m1 to consider the proper subwaves.
As I said I'm not interested in the proper count but in the naked, essential, underlying structure.
Would be interesting to receive comments by some Expert Elliotticians.
Come on, guys and girls, you are welcome. Thank you in advance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12_04_20 9.25 dbrown101 m1 mine result - structure naked.JPG Size: 186 KB
  • #4,686
  • Apr 12, 2020 1:01am Apr 12, 2020 1:01am
Necessity. Each effect has its own cause.

Necessity is a metaphysical principle
according to which the dynamics of matter in all its aspects (including biological) is governed by a direct "cause/effect connection",
that is, by linear causality, so that the reality of chance is denied.
The necessitaristic conception, based on determinism,
also theorizes that the evidence of randomness in the becoming of matter must be considered as pure ignorance of some unknown cause.
  • #4,687
  • Edited 1:24am Apr 12, 2020 1:09am | Edited 1:24am
Happy Easter. Also as a Symbol of new life and rebirth.
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  • #4,688
  • Apr 12, 2020 1:33am Apr 12, 2020 1:33am
Quoting Jupiter
Necessity. Each effect has its own cause. Necessity is a metaphysical principle according to which the dynamics of matter in all its aspects (including biological) is governed by a direct "cause/effect connection", that is, by linear causality, so that the reality of chance is denied. The necessitaristic conception, based on determinism, also theorizes that the evidence of randomness in the becoming of matter must be considered as pure ignorance of some unknown cause.
true. that is why those random walk fanatics know nothing, not only about the markets but about the structure of the universe itself. perception of randomness is a lack of insight. of course, since humans are finite beings, we will always be confronted with the perception of randomness.

either there is no such thing as true randomness or everything is absolutely random – which would mean: nothing exists. which clearly is wrong.
  • #4,689
  • Edited 7:38am Apr 12, 2020 5:04am | Edited 7:38am
DAX Ger 30 H1.
Possible Ascending Wedge.
Clear evidence of the three Impulsive Waves sequence inside the Elliott structure.
Anyway, until the pattern breaks down, the outlook will remain bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12_04_20 16.36.JPG Size: 79 KB
  • #4,690
  • Edited 10:02pm Apr 12, 2020 9:29pm | Edited 10:02pm
Quoting Jupiter
Just read on a new thread here on FF.
Add this one... another pearl of ignorance!
"There is no such thing as supply demand zones or support resistance level and the ridiculous candle by candle price action."
The author has got an orange flag! Medium impact member!
  • #4,691
  • Apr 12, 2020 11:45pm Apr 12, 2020 11:45pm
"And when youth comes to age for advice he receives the wisdom of years. But too often does youth think that age knows only the wisdom of days that are gone, and therefore profits not. But remember this, the sun that shines today is the sun that shone when thy father was born, and will still be shinig when thy last grandchild shall pass into the darkness." .... "Mark well my words, for if you do not you will fail to grasp the truth that I will tell you..." - George Clason "The Richest Man in Babylon"

A poor choice of words on my part. In the end, I did extract pearls of wisdom from that book or reconfirmed some truths and brought them to the forefront... and.. I read carefully everything that you have to write.
  • #4,692
  • Apr 13, 2020 12:36am Apr 13, 2020 12:36am
I have lost my trade at the open of the Eurodollar market.
I was already short since the pre-market.
Had my stop hit and didn't follow up!
I can't understand. I was really surprised by that rally. I didn't believe in it.
  • #4,693
  • Apr 13, 2020 2:28am Apr 13, 2020 2:28am
Bought EURUSD 1.093.01. Let's see.
Stop below.
  • #4,694
  • Apr 13, 2020 2:59am Apr 13, 2020 2:59am
How exhausting! Wrong pastime.
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  • #4,695
  • Apr 13, 2020 3:18am Apr 13, 2020 3:18am
It was a Flag. Wow. Closed right on time. On the last pip.
Not my day. Not in synch with this Lady.
Back to my books.
  • #4,696
  • Apr 13, 2020 6:29am Apr 13, 2020 6:29am
Quoting Jupiter
My considerations about the Wave Structure on the chart posted by dbrown101 on TAF #61051. EURUSD March 24... Of course I prefer to visualize the m1 to consider the proper subwaves. As I said I'm not interested in the proper count but in the naked, essential, underlying structure. Would be interesting to receive comments by some Expert Elliotticians. Come on, guys and girls, you are welcome. Thank you in advance. {image}

hey franco!

thanx for your analysis . Good to see we got a similar count. although after looking at the more detailed m1 i think I would say it was a 7 wave pattern with the right wave of the head (of the head and shoulders pattern) being wave 1. would love to discuss more when I have a little more free time. but your thinking and mine are similar in regaurds to the usefulness of ewt and how fti uses it. I am still cacoon phase so not sure if my count would be correct.
  • #4,697
  • Apr 13, 2020 8:17pm Apr 13, 2020 8:17pm
"Trading is a journey, not a destination." - Larry Pesavento
  • #4,698
  • Edited 8:40pm Apr 13, 2020 8:24pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting Jupiter
In essence, it is a particular form of Pattern Recognition.
My thought, my idea, my attitude.
Several hundred years ago (with the Sakata Rules), Technical Analysis began its journey
to help investors and traders determine, with reasonable probability, what direction prices might take.
Technical analysis allows investors and traders to identify moments of possible opportunity to profit in the markets.
It does so by identifying and quantifying specific patterns that form and repeat with enough regularity
that trading methods and strategies can be developed and implemented with success around them.
Those patterns are easily identifiable once the trader has spent some time observing and learning their basic structures.
Each of these patterns can be quantified and managed in its evolution (winning, failing, transforming).

Learning how markets work is accomplished through time and experience.
Determining what type of trading environment one is in (The Terrain!)... is fundamental.
Recognizing the subtle symmetry in all markets is an absolute prerequisite for a pattern recognition trader.
This is done and can be done only in one way:
study, study, and more study...
practice, practice, and more practice.
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  • #4,699
  • Edited 9:21pm Apr 13, 2020 8:51pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting Jupiter
Not in synch with this Lady. Back to my books.
Quoting Jupiter
Determining what type of trading environment one is in (The Terrain!)... is fundamental.
Yes... Knowledge and Patience!
Banking some on my yesterday's overnight Eurodollar trade.
I waited and entered at the right place!
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  • #4,700
  • Apr 13, 2020 8:54pm Apr 13, 2020 8:54pm
Don't know... I'm thinking to post this blotter on the EU interactive threads. But, in the end, who cares? Not me.
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