MY Journal-phil13

A/U ..... -- usdx been rejected off the daily trendline for now.

Hey phil,

How are you doing? I had a quick question for you...

Ive found your buyer/seller area on the daily chart to be really useful in gauging market moves. I was wondering though, if you ever take the first moves once the price reaches your buyer/seller area and the 5 or 15 min reflects possible change? or do you wait for it to be reflected in the hourly first?

my example is from today and yesterday (H1) eur/usd. Do you wait for the move marked with the red trend line to signal buyers are in the market then try to catch the second move? Or do you ever try to catch that first move by checking 5-15min when price reaches the buyer zone underlined in blue. I've scrolled through a few pages of your trades and it seems mostly that you wait till change has been reflected on the hourly. just curious as to your thoughts on this. hope you are catching these moves!

Hi Dustin

i am ok thanks, hope all is well with you.

i should wait and enter after the first clue to change but sometime that top/bottom pinching scorpion gets me and i get slapped now and again but my MO and MM saves me.

actually luckily earlier i saved this chart you are showing above with the answer to your question scribbled on it.

regards

Phil.

Thank you phil,

I was thinking that was the case. I figure if i were to attempt that early run I would adjust my skew sizes accordingly as it is a higher risk trade (less info).

also, im finding your MPS idea very useful and easy to read the charts. I know you've mentioned in the past that once price reaches the 2nd to last MPS structure it signals change. do you begin counting the new movements MPS once that 2nd to last level is breached. Like in your photo once price jumped above 6 then 5 ...then you start counting 1 for the up move? when first reading about it I thought it started when it formed a new high. just clarifying.

thanks again

Hi Dustin

like most things the experience is a great teacher with this, the answer is yes and no??? some will be obvious and some will mess with your head, mainly the messy ones are in the consolidation areas, technically I suppose it should be a new high or low to mark the new MPS turn, it gets easier the more you see, like anything going back through the charts and marking them is completely different to doing it live as price actually unfolds, when going back and marking anything we can already see the outcome so tend to 'fit' what we use to the price action and everything makes sense because you can see it to be able to 'fit' the 'thing' to it all, a lot of it is putting the clues left on the chart from the buyers and sellers together and learning although you may see something now and to you or me it may mean x is suggested to happen, that can and often will change as it mutates or an event takes it elsewhere, we must be fluid with our 'read' and ready to change as price and events unfold. Here is another look at that E/U turn with more detail.

Thank you for letting me know I am actually helping you in your own understanding of the moves, I appreciate it, what lead me to dividing the moves with what I call the MPS was after fti said that the price/market moves in a pump and rest motion, my simple mind was able to understand and see this on the charts and so I started marking it out which also made things easier for me to see, does not stop you from making mistakes or getting caught out all the time though but does help save you from making a fatal mistake for your account.

Regards

Phil.

A/U trade....... first part.. will post in two parts as not finished/concluded yet.



















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i have to go away again tomorrow, i will have my laptop with me so i can check and adjust this trade, not sure when i will be back exactly sometime around the end of the month i hope.

i am back home now and sorting out the rest of that A/U trade, hopefully i can post the conclusion fairly soon?? let us see...

welcome back phil,

if i am not mistaken, green box and red box are a minor bullish and bearish trend respectively.

what does the orange box signify ?
what does the x marks signify ?

sorry if you mentioned previously and i missed it. thanks phil.

Hi pannet1

hope you are well, i see you are on a winning streak with your trading atm, well done i am pleased for you, be very careful of mindset at this time, i have found that it can affect your/my judgement after a good winning streak my friend.

first off i must state/stress again to everyone because of other commitments that i have taken on at the moment my trading is often over a far greater time span than i would normally be trading, this should change about August-September when i can come back to giving trading my full attention again. i likely have another 3 trips away before that time though (so long as CV19 does not get in the way of my current plans) and sometimes i do not know the exact dates until a week or so before.

hourly

green box = new daily high.
red box = new daily low.
orange box = both daily high and low were taken out, i call it a 'wavy engulf' but it likely has other names.
X = the daily finish was low on a new high or high on a new low... lower chance of follow through.
up arrow = daily high bar finished high... fair-good chance of follow through.
down arrow = daily low bar finished low... fair-good chance of follow through.

the problem i have is i see to much info on the charts to be able to put it all on them, they would just be a mess and the bars would be lost, so i try to pick out what i think is the most relevant and helpful at any one time i write/draw up a chart.

regards

Phil.

Dear Phil,

So, basically, you are looking at the chart during 3 different instances.

instance 1:
--------
there is a high and low

instance 2:
----------
there may be a new high / low (or) both

instance 3:
---------
there is day close, where it finishes with a new high or low (we will leave neutral close for now).

is my understanding correct?

Hi pannet1

yes, my friend you are correct about how i mark what happens on the daily in my hourly chart.

regards

Phil.

Hey phil,

Just wanted to check in and see how you are doing. Lots of crazy stuff going on in the world these days. Hoping you are staying safe and well in these uncertain times.

Hi dbrown101

i am ok thanks, we are on lockdown now here in UK, not that makes much difference to people who trade from home, decided to take a bit of time out, just managing my last few longer term stuff i had for now and of course that A/U trade that i will eventually be able to conclude and post at some point.

you stay safe and well my friend.

regards

Phil.

for all my friends and anyone who is worried about not being able to get a mask ...

Hello phil, I hope you are fine! we are waiting for your lessons). I wish you health and happiness!

Hello Phil,

Thank you. Apart from other restrictions and precautions we are following 2 m distance and no more than 2 people together. Masks are for those already caught by CV19 or under 14-day quarantine.

I much appreciate your keeping posting and sharing the valuables.

Good health to you and all participants here.

Best regards,
Exnav

Hi protuberanec and Exnav

good to hear from you my friends, i am ok thanks, hope all is well with you both, i am taking some time away for now, i have another ongoing project that means i can not give the time i need to trade ATM, you will see this when i post my conclusion of the A/U trade i am left in when i post it, trading takes all your mind power or you should not trade, i will no doubt conclude that A/U trade but the time i had to spend away thus giving me limited time to keep on top of it and the world events has lengthened the process of the conclusion, not helped by the black swan know as CV19. in the mean time i am not trading all be it managing that A/U trade when i have time.

good luck and take care my friends.

regards

Phil.

posted this yesterday for someone...



here is today's update...