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  • #17,181
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:09am Feb 27, 2020 8:09am
I think the EMAs and mid-BB will keep these in check, and the charts are more oversold on every indicator I use than I have ever seen before, so....

In the following:

SPY Mar13 318 CALL @ $2.07

DIA Mar6 273 CALL @ $1.84

These should more than make up for the losses on the Mar2 321 SPY.....

I just can't see it staying down for long with the charts looking like they do. Virus or not, people bill buy stocks at bargain prices.....though it will be interest to see the reaction after Super Tuesday....

Also, added to the following:

SIX Mar20 35 CALL @ $0.10, lowering the average to $0.145
  • #17,182
  • Feb 27, 2020 8:50am Feb 27, 2020 8:50am
Quoting The Fool
Fear then panic will set in if the virus starts to spread much more, and especially if that happens outside of China. If 60% of the world population gets infected, that could mean >50 million dead. SnP could drop more than 20% in a few weeks.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tPqhYG624U
this is gonna take some time to play out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,183
  • Feb 27, 2020 9:39am Feb 27, 2020 9:39am
The person in California that has not traveled and has not been in contact with someone known to be infected or that has traveled.....I would not be surprised if they were not entirely truthful as to their contacts for fear of shedding a negative spotlight on themselves. Would be interesting to see if they have any ties whatsoever to the Chinese community or anyone recently traveling abroad.

And they are making a big deal out of some in China getting re-infected. But that can happen with any virus.....
  • #17,184
  • Feb 27, 2020 10:04am Feb 27, 2020 10:04am
The virus scare is full of dis- and misinformation. The lack of good info is the uncertainty that bears love. The reaction by various governments is what is shocking to me. I just don't know how that's gonna go down if the ptb start telling people they can't leave their city, shut schools, etc.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,185
  • Feb 27, 2020 10:05am Feb 27, 2020 10:05am
you got a good looking v-ditch there at sp 3000...kind of figures there's be a fight there....let's see if it holds.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,186
  • Feb 27, 2020 10:10am Feb 27, 2020 10:10am
I have been trading TLT puts - looking out to the 3/18 FOMC - I think they will crap pants and squeeze off another 25bps cut....rates should come up some, bonds should deflate some...

I bot 3/20-27 $144 puts calendar for 12c

Otoh, if they don't cut, markets will crap pants instead.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,187
  • Feb 27, 2020 11:19am Feb 27, 2020 11:19am
supply chain impacts really whipping energy stocks. With iv's elevated I am looking at flys, which sometimes are immune to that.

XOM Mar20 45/42.5/40 puts fly is a dime......XOM @ $51 already a 15 year low
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,188
  • Feb 27, 2020 11:34am Feb 27, 2020 11:34am
I'm not all in on the doomsday plague scenario, and call spreads are cheap - looking at a post FOMC recovery and pitching pennies

....trying fill SPY call calendar @ $325 Mar20/23...for 4c ...... same trade at $320
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,189
  • Feb 27, 2020 11:41am Feb 27, 2020 11:41am
Quoting The Fool
I'm not all in on the doomsday plague scenario, and call spreads are cheap - looking at a post FOMC recovery and pitching pennies ....trying fill SPY call calendar @ $325 Mar20/23...for 4c ...... same trade at $320
...filled $325 at 5c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,190
  • Feb 27, 2020 12:00pm Feb 27, 2020 12:00pm
stacking put flys for next week, 3/4 or 3/6...looking at $295 and $290, $2.5 or $2 wings
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,191
  • Feb 27, 2020 12:07pm Feb 27, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting The Fool
stacking put flys for next week, 3/4 or 3/6...looking at $295 and $290, $2.5 or $2 wings
filled Mar06 $392.5/395/397.5 for 12c

same date $287/290/293 for 13c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,192
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:05pm Feb 27, 2020 1:05pm
Quoting The Fool
you got a good looking v-ditch there at sp 3000...kind of figures there's be a fight there....let's see if it holds.
No dice

Panic setting in. Spoos could cop 4% by the close. While there's blood in the street, I am pitching pennies at the rebound...bot SPX diag calls for a nickel, Mar13/16 3200/3205. Hope I don't get my whozit ripped off....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,193
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:09pm Feb 27, 2020 1:09pm
Quoting The Fool
Panic setting in. Spoos could cop 4% by the close. .
....after hours down 5%....biggest move EVER.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,194
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:14pm Feb 27, 2020 1:14pm
Was hard not to pull the trigger on CVX and DIS right at the close....had the orders ready....I'll see what the open is like tomorrow.

So many stocks are indicating extreme oversold levels on all indicators, and a majority of them were up off the opening price today (a few dropped the last 30 minutes of trading), which is a very positive sign, even though they opened lower that yesterdays close.

If the mid-BB can hold on the monthly charts for SPX and DJI, that is a good sign of the end of the drop......
  • #17,195
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:22pm Feb 27, 2020 1:22pm
Quoting moneymaker2
If the mid-BB can hold on the monthly charts for SPX and DJI, that is a good sign of the end of the drop......
TA is useless in the face of huge fundi issues. We are hearing about new positive cases in CA, airlines limiting or canceling destinations, etc, etc. This is going to take time to play out. There will be money to be made in either direction in the coming weeks, if you're nimble.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,196
  • Feb 27, 2020 1:26pm Feb 27, 2020 1:26pm
Prolly have to go back to the financial crisis to see 6 ugly daily candles in a row....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-27_1324spy.png Size: 75 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,197
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:33am Feb 28, 2020 9:33am
Last couple days I have been buying cheap TLT put spreads, out to Mar and Apr monthly opex. The Fed will be leaning on rates soon. Looking at $145 and lower...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-02-28_0934tlt2.png Size: 66 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,198
  • Feb 28, 2020 9:42am Feb 28, 2020 9:42am
I am shooting at some SPY and SPX spread legs, too, out past Mar opex. The Fed will cure the virus, they can do anything.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,199
  • Feb 28, 2020 11:26am Feb 28, 2020 11:26am
If I was brave I'd buy 2/28 SPY atm puts, with 1.5 hrs to go, Friday afternoon. prolly see another hard dump into the close.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #17,200
  • Feb 28, 2020 12:52pm Feb 28, 2020 12:52pm
Quoting The Fool
If I was brave I'd buy 2/28 SPY atm puts, with 1.5 hrs to go, Friday afternoon. prolly see another hard dump into the close.
I did exactly that this morning, only with CALLs...made a little on a couple of trades, but was only trading 10 contracts each time. I thought about doing the PUTs this afternoon, but wasn't brave enough....I consider this type trading more like gambling, but it is fun and exciting periodically.

The books tell you about a usual change in direction about an hour into trading, so that's when I try to see what things look like. I know the $$ on the Mar2 SPY CALLs is probably gone, but it just looked worth the gamble on the downside being over for now, so I went shopping for low prices. I found a couple, so in the following:

SPY Mar13 314 @ $0.94

DIS Mar13 124 @ $0.92

I have a cubic buttload of both of them, so any upside next week will make money....
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