Quad Candle System

Have removed the sell stop at OPL_5.

IMHO, trading from the extremes back toward center on D1 is by far the best way to trade the levels. I expect slow, but steady returns, with very low stress.

I will. Thanks!

Out for a small loss on that trade.

Masterrmind.........

Long E/U.

Closed everything for a modest profit. Sick of watching. ...U/C total for 2 legs, -57 pips. U/J total for 2 legs, +239 pips. E/U total for 1 leg, +15 pips.

A ripening fruit.

Yes almost a double top.

Masterrmind........

Equity curves on both accounts are starting to lean over a little as the market reacts to various world events.

The 1k account will continue to follow the QCS methodology.

However, it is possible that the 10k account might start trading a more flexible intraday approach, call it getting into recovery mode if you will. Key trading risks will remain such as max DD, risk per trade and risk across the account, the main difference will be volumes being traded which will be larger but with shorter stops in place.

I will post a few charts and additional information later.

Masterrmind .........

Was hoping for some consolidation before a retracement of this magnitude. Irons in the fire.

Certainly worth a short.

Question is how deep will price go.

Masterrmind ........

And a short has been triggered. Watching the other two.

Adjusted SL.

USDJPY [D1 Chart]

Masterrmind...............

End of February Account Summary

Quad Candle System 1K account


Took some losses during the month of February.

-3.1% loss

Further details via the public TE.

Lets get into March and see the dip in drawdown recovered.

Masterrmind...............

Just an observation but I notice that when you add in additional trade volume you actually decrease the increment in target direction.

Such as:

Trade 1 @ 0.02 lots (market entry); then
Trade 2 @ 0.01 lots (Sell Stop)

in the favored direction.

The idea should be to increase volume as PA moves in your favored direction.

Trade 1 @ 0.01;
Trade 2 @ 0.02;
Trade 3 @ 0.03;
Trade 4 @ 0.04; and
Trade 5 @ 0.05 lots.

By using smaller volume to start the trader is effectively minimizing risk on the initial entry into the market.

Then as price moves in the favored direction an increasing volume is applied.

Stops can then be trailed as the trader sees fit (refer to Post 1).

Masterrmind............

Equity Curve Trace Management (ECTM)

The ECTM is used to stay in touch with how account equity and account drawdown are progressing over time.

In an 'perfect world' what we would want to see on the chart is explosive equity and no drawdown.

In trading its impossible to have no drawdown over the longer term so what we want to do here is minimize the drawdown as much as possible.

By applying strict Risk Control measures a trader is forbidden to exceed the QCS Guidelines (without exceptional reasons).

This reduces total trading volumes across the account (except for trades locked in at BE+pips), limits the loss per trade and limits the loss across the account.

ECTM allows the trader to visualize and keep in touch with 'pullbacks' in the Equity Curve and search for:

1. reasons for drop in Equity;
2. reasons for symbol choice that led to the drop in Equity;
3. reasons for sequencing of additional volume which may have led to deeper drop in the Equity Curve (eg. poor Trade Management);
4. world event impacts;
5. revisit risk which the trader does and does not have control over (can this be managed more effectively);
6. implement a Trading Plan (short term strategy) that reduces applied risk after an episode of drawdown; and
7. limits considered on certain trading parameters or increased awareness of news and world events.

Notes:
An effective strategy may be limited at times in the case when equity is already at low levels and the QCS Guidelines are followed.
A smaller account has less options afforded to it than a larger account.
If the Octive Gap on some symbols is large such as >=244 pips then other symbols should be considered, since 1 OG SL on a 1K account is ~2.4%.
Look at your reasons for entering a given setup, might it have been wiser to wait for price to retest the highs again before shorting.
How has price reacted on the same symbol over the past several years when applying a similar entry technique ?

The best way to visualize this is by using a simple chart with a first pass approach simply using the Return by Trade chart (via TE).

Sophisticated mathematics can be used but there is no need at this stage since sample size (trades closed count) is only small at 26.
A minimum of 100 closed trades with a far grater number being 'better' for deeper analysis.

This account is in its infancy so there is no need to proceed the sophisticated way yet, I'll leave that until later and then revisit it again.

The chart shows the highest Gain in Equity of ~48.4% and the current Gain in Equity of ~37.5%.

There are no open trades and there are no pending orders.

Since the account is very very simple to analyze having only 26 trades closed out and showing a positive Gain in Equity I will use a pullback technique coupled with reduced risk.

The black dash shown on the chart suggests a 38.2% Fibonacci pullback from the highest Gain in Equity and this is the level where I do not want to see drawdown drop below in Phase 1 (if it does then I will outline Phase 2 approach).

Its important to realize that I'm applying Return by Trade here and not the intraday floating PnL.

This means assessments are based on a closed trade result, I need to be mindful of the QCS limits ofcourse which dictate a max risk per trade of <=5%.

Lets determine how much in % and dollars the account can 'afford' to lose but still remain just above the 'black line' which is ~29.9%.

So lets make max drop in Equity >= 30%.

Current Equity = USD$1374.97
Current Gain in Equity = 37.5%

Minimum Equity will be USD$1300.00
Minimum Gain in Equity will be 30%

Max $Lost = $74.97.

Now lets see if this is practical by ensuring it allows at least 1 trade to be entered on a 'normal' Quad Candle Setup.

'Normal' Octive Gap = 61 pips on a D1 Chart across the majors and 122 pips when a stop of 2 OG's is used as per the following charts.

AUDUSD [D1]

EURUSD [D1]

GBPUSD [D1]

USDJPY [D1]

No issue trading !

Plenty more coming in this space over the next few months so keep a close watch out for when I reply with ECTM information.

Good trading,

Masterrmind..............

Traders should note the following from the charts above :

1. 2 OG SL @ 0.01 lots is about 1% risk or $14 based on account equity;

2. 2 OG SL @ 0.02 lots is about 2% risk or $28 based on account equity; and

3. 2 OG SL @ 0.03 lots is about 3% risk or $42 based on account equity.

Max loss allowed to keep Gain in Equity >30% is about $75.

This means that not all 3 trades can be taken unless at least one of them is locked in at BE because total risk across 3 trades is greater than $75 (14+28+42=84).

In fact any 2 trades could be taken which satisfies the risk requirement however, the logical approach is to use the smaller volumes.

Let's wait and see what potential setup is presented so that we can reassess the risk.

Masterrmind .........

I believe the probability for a favorable excursion is greatest when trades are taken at the extremes of the grid. Using MOTF, I would be reluctant to add on beyond Octave Frame Resistance/Octave Frame Support(although I have, see U/J chart), and certainly not by multiples. However, I am open minded in this regard and am here to learn, as well as to contribute any expertise that I may have. I have added another Sell Limit for 0.03 lots at OPL_TOP.

Have adjusted TP to price point of contention.