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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #541
  • Edited 4:38pm Dec 30, 2019 4:25pm | Edited 4:38pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} you can time it with VIX futures term curve buddy. any day close where you get a backwardation at the front end off the VIX futures term curve, you better be running to the hills cuz thats when momentum algos will start to push things further lower. and we are no where near that.... i cant bloody see any backwardation to warrant selling short the US equity market atm.... we might get another 10-20% year next year for all i care.... {quote} hmmmm its like you dont know me at all... and kudos if you have been in this business for over 15 years...

You do realize that you have an option of not commenting here, let alone reading the thread.

If you don’t have anything good/positive/creative to say, we all beg that you please refrain from commenting.

We all have our opinions. However we might all disagree about them, respect and courtesy is expected.

Besides, I don’t really care if you are THE super dick trader on earth or own a freaking crystal ball.

Show some respect. Especially to those with TONS of more experience and credibility than you will ever have.

Please, go have a lollypop and chill.
  • #542
  • Dec 30, 2019 5:30pm Dec 30, 2019 5:30pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} You do realize that you have an option of not commenting here, let alone reading the thread. If you don’t have anything good/positive/creative to say, we all beg that you please refrain from commenting. We all have our opinions. However we might all disagree about them, respect and courtesy is expected. Besides, I don’t really care if you are THE super dick trader on earth or own a freaking crystal ball. Show some respect. Especially to those with TONS of more experience and credibility than you will ever have. Please, go have a lollypop...
sorry but whos being disrespectful here?
and how is me sharing ideas of better ways to time the market as me not having any value to share?

you also assume I have less experience. but how are you so sure you're not talking to someone with much more relevant experience??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #543
  • Dec 30, 2019 5:37pm Dec 30, 2019 5:37pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} i don't really give a damn about your market's positioning... i just don't like your attitude... for me, someone calling himself a trader while also not knowing that each and every trend always ends up eventually with a correction of no less than 38% is pretty much like some sort of a "Baby K"... which is definitely a living creature, but with some serious "birth defects"...
I am fine with you calling for a correction, im not fine with you making calls for a correction without proper analysis to back your view other than chart formations.
ive ive time and time again explained that im okay with a correction because by which time money wouldve been parked in Treasuries which shields me from the drawdown phases seen in corrections
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #544
  • Edited 6:17pm Dec 30, 2019 5:43pm | Edited 6:17pm
and if you are blindly shortselling expecting the market would come back to you because of a correction somewhere in the horizon is kind of like trying to chase after the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
and in the meantime people more famous have made bolder calls, and they are also being boldly burnt.

a 50% correction is only breakeven for jeff gundlach, actually no, he'll need a much deeper correction having accumulated all that borrowing cost to short sell for so many years....

Another thing im looking at is yield curve inversion and we havent even seen a 10y-2y inversion which last 2 times that happened was in 2008 and 2000 and we all know what happened then.... 40-50% correction.

we came close to inversion back in September 2019, but never actually inverted. we never had a daily close that had the yield curve been in any inverstion, only intraday inversions.
did spook people out for a 10% drawdown peak to trough but have since made ATH.... so another thing in the market thats not warranting a deep correction YET.
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #545
  • Dec 30, 2019 5:51pm Dec 30, 2019 5:51pm
SP500
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Don't believe me just watch!
  • #546
  • Dec 31, 2019 12:16am Dec 31, 2019 12:16am
Quoting fxtyrant
and if you are blindly shortselling expecting the market would come back to you because of a correction somewhere in the horizon is kind of like trying to chase after the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. and in the meantime people more famous have made bolder calls, and they are also being boldly burnt. a 50% correction is only breakeven for jeff gundlach, actually no, he'll need a much deeper correction having accumulated all that borrowing cost to short sell for so many years.... Another thing im looking at is yield curve inversion and we...
I'd rather listen to my dog than those folks.
They are just getting paid to tell what they say. If they were actually following their calls, they'd be homeless. And they have plenty of cash in their bank.
Thanks to CNBC, Bloomberg and everybody to give them credits.

About the the yield curve, i'm waiting for a complete inversion, 30years/3months.
We need to be patient. Meanwhile we can't rule a 15/20% correction, we need to be prepared
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #547
  • Dec 31, 2019 12:54am Dec 31, 2019 12:54am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'd rather listen to my dog than those folks. They are just getting paid to tell what they say. If they were actually following their calls, they'd be homeless. And they have plenty of cash in their bank. Thanks to CNBC, Bloomberg and everybody to give them credits. About the the yield curve, i'm waiting for a complete inversion, 30years/3months. We need to be patient. Meanwhile we can't rule a 15/20% correction, we need to be prepared
im fine with a 15-20%, but "the end of the US stock market" as the title suggests? no way lol.... and apparently im being disrespectful for having a different view from the one the author has....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #548
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:55am Dec 31, 2019 1:55am
someone here doesn't seem to be able to comprehend even the plainest of words... though the market rules and the laws are quite simple indeed:
1. every trend sooner or later will have a correction;
2. a minimal correction in its size is always no less that Fibo's 38.2% of the previous trend's length;
3. therefore expecting only 15-20% decline in the stocks before the market goes up again is quite a stupid idea;
4. in our particular case in discussion the Dow will get back at least to 18K level no matter what and regardless of absolutely anything (whether it's technical or fundamental) including how far higher it might possibly go before turning around;
5. there is an 80% chance that the trend, that started back in Jan, 2009 at 6470, will be fully covered in some not so distant future...
  • #549
  • Dec 31, 2019 2:29am Dec 31, 2019 2:29am
Quoting Igrok
someone here doesn't seem to be able to comprehend even the plainest of words... though the market rules and the laws are quite simple indeed: 1. every trend sooner or later will have a correction; 2. a minimal correction in its size is always no less that Fibo's 38.2% of the previous trend's length; 3. therefore expecting only 15-20% decline in the stocks before the market goes up again is quite a stupid idea; 4. in our particular case in discussion the Dow will get back at least to 18K level no matter what and regardless of absolutely anything...
buddy...
statistics are not on your side

corrections of ~10% is typical of any bullish trend. the fact you are calling for an 18k dow, ie 40-50% correction coincides with a recession in US similar to the likes of GFC or dot com bubble mate.

your obsession of the 38.2% fibo retracement level holds little to no significance..... kinda like broken clock can still be telling the right time correct twice a day, and wrong the remaining 1438 minutes a day.....

attached below and you'll get to see we havent seen a 38.2% without a proper reason.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbear.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiQ7Pv91d_mAhWOwpQKHdTXBacQFjAJegQIAxAB&usg=AOvVaw1dHxA0wXMdy-TjaztaLN1F
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #550
  • Dec 31, 2019 4:09am Dec 31, 2019 4:09am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} sorry but whos being disrespectful here? and how is me sharing ideas of better ways to time the market as me not having any value to share? you also assume I have less experience. but how are you so sure you're not talking to someone with much more relevant experience??

Boy, you have issues.

if you make money trading, I wonder why you spend so much time posting here in such an arrogant and disrespectful manner.

And yes, I think you are a childish keyboard warrior.

Even if you were otherwise, I don’t really care and quite frankly I don’t think other people really care either.

I have been a long time trader and used to participate here at FF a lot more back in the day when there still were a few brilliant and at the same time modest minds.

You are the exact reason why I stopped sharing views and ideas: arrogance.

Go grab a lollipop and chill.
  • #551
  • Dec 31, 2019 1:47pm Dec 31, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Boy, you have issues. if you make money trading, I wonder why you spend so much time posting here in such an arrogant and disrespectful manner. And yes, I think you are a childish keyboard warrior. Even if you were otherwise, I don’t really care and quite frankly I don’t think other people really care either. I have been a long time trader and used to participate here at FF a lot more back in the day when there still were a few brilliant and at the same time modest minds. You are the exact reason why I stopped sharing views and ideas: arrogance....
I disagree with your assessment of FXTyrant's dialogue. I think he has presented very good evidence to backup his thoughts and I for one agree with him completely. There's nothing wrong with challenging Igrok's views as has been done here by myself and others and FX. If Igrok thought everyone was just going to swallow the hook and sinker then he probably shouldn't have posted his ridiculousness. Igrok has really not been able to adequately back up his ludricous predictions with any credibility to include his claims of being a "fund manager" for which there is no evidence. Just because one doesn't have a red diamond doesn't mean they haven't been investing/trading for a significant period of time. And just because one has a red diamond doesn't mean they know anything of value. Comparing FX with Igrok is actually enlightening and I for one think many here, unlike you, value what FX is saying. If Igrok did have a fund I wouldn't give a dime of my money to him based on what he is shoveling here. If he in fact does have a fund, which I doubt does, I feel sorry for those that have invested with him. Sorry JP. I think your on your own about your thoughts regarding FX. It's good that people like FX, myself and other's expose fakes like Igrok. Sorry. Just saying. Happy New Year!!!
  • #552
  • Edited 2:54pm Dec 31, 2019 2:27pm | Edited 2:54pm
that's the only client I didn't have a non disclosure agreement with... besides it's been a long time already... that also means that I was trading for the world's most profitable FX-specialized fund in 2002 according to "Profit & Loss" magazine when NorthStar GF was publishing its performance on a regular basis there... Happy New Year!!!...
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  • #553
  • Edited 5:23pm Dec 31, 2019 4:14pm | Edited 5:23pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I disagree with your assessment of FXTyrant's dialogue. I think he has presented very good evidence to backup his thoughts and I for one agree with him completely. There's nothing wrong with challenging Igrok's views as has been done here by myself and others and FX. If Igrok thought everyone was just going to swallow the hook and sinker then he probably shouldn't have posted his ridiculousness. Igrok has really not been able to adequately back up his ludricous predictions with any credibility to include his claims of being a "fund manager"...
Fake? Not fake?

Who cares!

You and this other gentleman completely miss the point. Maybe I should start writing in Swahili or some
other f... language.

i just think it’s childish and a complete waste of time picking a thread apart for no good apparent reason.

I have seen many like you come and go. Bash, troll, arrogant. Believe me, I know everything about this joint. I was around way before this red diamond shit was ever invented. I could care less about it.

Who da fack are you or this other gentleman to come around behave like this? What do you gain from it? Stop behaving like kids. If tou don’t have anything to add, why waste time?

Besides, I didn’t see Igrok trying to sell his services here. I am sure you didn’t see it either. So why waste time? I know why. You are the keyboard warrior who still lives with mom and dad and has plenty of time to waste. I can read you boy.

Now I am also sure you are not a very smart person by calling someone as “fake”. Perhaps if he shoves a legal case up yours, you will gain some knowledge from it after losing some deserved money due to your lack of brains.

Evidence?
Coming around as someone who “knows” statistics without demonstrating any sort of correlation between variables (be it merely linear) and trying to come around as some sort of expert is what FF is all about these days.

Any half brain child can go to FRED, take screenshots and post images here pretending to “Know” or “Prove” things.

He didn’t prove shit. Just so you know, I am a data scientist myself and I can assure you whatever he brought up is ridiculous to say the least.

The difficult part is to model and program in R or Python to really understand what is going on with a particular asset or class. He didn’t bring any type of correlation or correlated variables within a reasonable period of time about any asset or asset class. Period. Case closed.

He mentions “algos” or when the “algos” do this, or the “algos” do that.. C’mon. He has no clue what an algorithm really is or how to proficiently model one. Expert? Expert in what? Give me a break!


It seems to me you guys watch too much cnbc or fox business and just vomit whatever you hear from them. c’mon! Bring new ideas! Personal ideas.

I’l tell you what, keyboard warriors, I give way more credit to those hot Instagram influencer girls than I would ever give to you. Why? Because at least they show their faces and they don’t hide behind a keyboard like you do.

The day you trade multi million $ accounts, publish a book, or publish a study on an asset, then I might consider taking you seriously.

Until then, you are nothing more and nothing less then a childish keyboard warriors.

Any idiot (or idiots) like you can come across as “experts”or “superior”. This is what the internet does these days. So you are mentioning Igrok as fake? I’ll tell you what: You are as much fake as he is. You haven’t proven shit or, as mentioned before, ever traded multimillion $, published books, published scientific articles... I haven’t seen neither of you starting a thread about your trades, your ideas, how to enter the market(trade placement) or how/when to exit it (TP or SL placement). Start your own threads, with your own ideas and I’ll make sure to be the first one to bash, troll and fack around like a little kid... Just like tou.

Go grab a lollipop and chill boy. Better yet: go get a life.

By the way, I don’t give a shit if you agree or disagree with me. My opinion will always be my own opinion. All you have to do is respect it even if you disagree with it.

Oh my...

Happy New Year boy!
  • #554
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:13pm Dec 31, 2019 7:13pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} Fake? Not fake? Who cares! You and this other gentleman completely miss the point. Maybe I should start writing in Swahili or some other f... language. i just think it’s childish and a complete waste of time picking a thread apart for no good apparent reason. I have seen many like you come and go. Bash, troll, arrogant. Believe me, I know everything about this joint. I was around way before this red diamond shit was ever invented. I could care less about it. Who da fack are you or this other gentleman to come around behave like...
https://www.bizapedia.com/images/1ptrans.gifhttps://www.bizapedia.com/images/1ptrans.gif
https://www.bizapedia.com/images/1ptrans.gifhttps://www.bizapedia.com/images/1ptrans.gif
Despite your angry, hostile and profanity laden post the facts stand for themselves. Igrok is a fraud and a fake. It doesn't take too much research to reveal the true Igrok who is not currently a fund manager and is unable to reveal any credentials that would qualify him to manage a legitimate fund of any kind. Posting unofficial documents from 2002 do not add any credibility to his claims.

"Igrok Trading International, LLC (https://www.bizapedia.com/business-services.aspx) is a California Domestic Limited-Liability Company filed on September 26, 2002. The company's filing status is listed as Sos/Ftb Suspended/Forfeited and its File Number is 200227010072 (https://www.bizapedia.com/business-services.aspx)." More research reveals other interesting information but I'll leave it to you and others.

Igrok makes erroneous claims regarding diamond formations and uses them to make a sensational claim predicting the end of the US stock market. His claims regarding diamond formations are not based in any credible research conducted in any credible scientific manner. Any grade school student who has participated in a a science fair understands the scientific process and Igrok's article cannot even meet these most basic standards.

You claim to be a data scientist. So you know that data is just a small part of research. Any credible research study that claims it's results suggest cause/effect must be done rigorously and to the very highest research standards. Even then most studies done at these very high levels of rigor cannot usually make a cause-effect claim but rather state that more research should be done. In fact it is only after multiple such research studies have been conducted that researchers are willing to suggest that there may be a cause-effect. I know this because I'm a Master's prepared individual who has actually participated in medical research that not only includes data gathering but all aspects of the research process.

I myself make no claim regarding my ability to trade. However I will say without reservation that I am a successful investor. I invest in a highly diversified portfolio via a time-tested successful investing strategy known to many as dollar-cost-averageing. During my early years of investing I was nearly 100% invested in equities including the US stock market. Never did I feel that I should begin "shorting" to take advantage of some profound market decline. Even during the largest market corrections and bear markets I continued dollar-cost-averaging to the long side in the US stock market. Those who sold and stayed in cash during the 2008-09 housing debacle missed out one of the biggest bull markets in US stock market history. I took advantage of that time by staying invested and by continuring to buy, buy, buy. The 2008-09 decline was quite significant. Those who managed to be short during that time may have made some money but nothing compared to what those who remained in the market made.

So for Igrok to make his predictions means nothing. Even if it happens the gains made from such a decline will still be small compared to the gains to be made from the market's recovery. But it will be those who remained in the market during such a decline that will benefit the most. Those who have currently divested and are beginning to test shorts are losing and losing. The market keeps make higher highs and lower lows and the smart money including mine is fully vested in the continued growth of the mighty US stock market.

Igrok's thread is dangerous. His advice is dangerous. His predictions are dangerous. He needs to be called out. If he wants to post in a public forum such as this then everything he says is fair game to be picked apart to the bone.
  • #555
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:20pm Dec 31, 2019 7:20pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} {image}{image} {image}{image} Despite your angry, hostile and profanity laden post the facts stand for themselves. Igrok is a fraud and a fake. It doesn't take too much research to reveal the true Igrok who is not currently a fund manager and is unable to reveal any credentials that would qualify him to manage a legitimate fund of any kind. Posting unofficial documents from 2002 do not add any credibility to his claims. "Igrok Trading International, LLC (https://www.bizapedia.com/business-services.aspx) is a California Domestic...
LOL

bla, bla, bla...

Get a life boy.

The day you start posting about yourself, your ideas or your trades we might eventually take you seriously.

Again, you talk about others....

Let’s see about you.

ha? Nothing? I thought so.

By the way, it’s still time to leave your parents home.

Go play with tour dolls and let us carry in with our lives. You obviously have serious mental issues.

Thanks Robin Hood for saving the World. Wow! We are all impressed. We will be sleeping safer tonight just because of you!
Happy New Year boy!

.
  • #556
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:35pm Dec 31, 2019 7:35pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} LOL bla, bla, bla... Get a life boy. The day you start posting about yourself, we might take you seriously. Again, you talk about others.... Let’s see about you. ha? Nothing? I thought so. By the way, it’s still time to leave your parents home. Happy New Year boy!
Under more private circumstances I'd love to compare my accounts with yours. But I'm just wondering about something and maybe you and I can perhaps prove something about whose full of it and who is not. I'm all about truth Why don't we both open a live trading account and post it in our respective threads with a trade explorer that is fully transparent. I'd be willing to go with say $1500.00. It can be forex, futures, commodities, stocks, etc. Whatever each one of us is most comfortable with. Just post your live trades and keep your TE open to everyone. Let's see what happens. How 'bout. Mano a mano.
  • #557
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:42pm Dec 31, 2019 7:42pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Under more private circumstances I'd love to compare my accounts with yours. But I'm just wondering about something and maybe you and I can perhaps prove something about whose full of it and who is not. I'm all about truth Why don't we both open a live trading account and post it in our respective threads with a trade explorer that is fully transparent. I'd be willing to go with say $1500.00. It can be forex, futures, commodities, stocks, etc. Whatever each one of us is most comfortable with. Just post your live trades and keep your TE open...
If you agree and committ I'll be the first one to post my new thread with a fresh brand new live account within the first week of 2020. What do you say big guy?
  • #558
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:46pm Dec 31, 2019 7:46pm
It doesn't even have to be about who is a better trader. Maybe we can learn something from each other and other's can learn from this gentleman challenge. You've made some rather ugly comments regarding me so I think you should some how back it up. So let's go. Just committ to posting a live account and let's compare for the next year.
  • #559
  • Dec 31, 2019 7:54pm Dec 31, 2019 7:54pm
Quoting Winston Reed
It doesn't even have to be about who is a better trader. Maybe we can learn something from each other and other's can learn from this gentleman challenge. You've made some rather ugly comments regarding me so I think you should some how back it up. So let's go. Just committ to posting a live account and let's compare for the next year.
It’s not about comparing anything, Robin Hood.

it’s simply about making your trading life public. Why private?. Let’s see your public ideas.

I am not going around bashing or trolling anyone. I also don’t have some childish lack of confidence like you certainly do. I am a grown up man with a family to take care of. On the flip side, as mentioned, there’s still time to move out of your parents home. They will most certainly thank you.

Weak ones criticize others while hiding under a stone. That’s what you do.

When are we going to see your thread with your trades and ideas?

You have ways of judging and criticizing people, let’s see about you.

Can we see your trades? Your ideas? The books you wrote? Your threads? Your scientific studies?

The money you managed?

We would love to scrutinize your so called trading life.

Let’s see it.

Ha? Can we see it tonight/today?
  • #560
  • Dec 31, 2019 8:18pm Dec 31, 2019 8:18pm
Quoting jupiter_peak
{quote} It’s not about comparing anything, Robin Hood. it’s simply about making your trading life public. Why private?. Let’s see your public ideas. I am not going around bashing or trolling anyone. I also don’t have some childish lack of confidence like you certainly do. I am a grown up man with a family to take care of. On the flip side, as mentioned, there’s still time to move out of your parents home. They will most certainly thank you. Weak ones criticize others while hiding under a stone. That’s what you do. When are we going to see your thread...
The challenge thread is in the "trading journals" section. It is called "Challenge thread to Jupiter Peak"

I too have a family and children and a grand child. I've been a nurse practitioner since 1992 but a nurse since 1987. As an investor I've been investing since I became a nurse. My daughter is first year college and my grand son will be starting 5th grade. Recently my elderly father moved in with my wife and I and we are taking care of him. So I've provided just a little about me and my family to counter your defamatory statements. I don't know you and except for the little information I've given here you don't really know me.

You've challenged me regarding trading in certain respects so I'm issuing the same challenge except I'm doing it with real back-up. I've already posted the thread and on that thread how we can proceed. You want to know how I trade then accept.

You want a thread you've got one. So come on boy let's go. Everything you've said about me and challenged me with applies to yourself. Accept. If not then everyone here will no what YOU are really about.
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