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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #1,081
  • Dec 1, 2019 10:54am Dec 1, 2019 10:54am
Quoting fmsfx
I have no clue to what is good or bad on how calculations are used with the baskets we create. Only one person can elaborate on that and that is Julius. How the current basket(s) are created seems to be ok with him so its ok with me. See his post in the Still Basketting thread below. is what I’m patiently waiting for. That being said I have no issues with the current H4 Offline Chart for the entries with either the HAS(personally) or Tidane indicators. Dave
Please remove the link to ALL commercial threads or sites Dave. We DON'T want this thread sent to the commercial section or binned.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,082
  • Dec 1, 2019 11:03am Dec 1, 2019 11:03am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Please remove the link to ALL commercial threads or sites Dave. We DON'T want this thread sent to the commercial section or binned. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Done...sorry bout that...
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,083
  • Dec 1, 2019 11:12am Dec 1, 2019 11:12am
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} Done...sorry bout that...
Thanks man!

It would interest you to know that THAT was exactly how Kos' thread became commercial those many years ago.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,084
  • Dec 1, 2019 11:54am Dec 1, 2019 11:54am
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Thanks man! It would interest you to know that THAT was exactly how Kos' thread became commercial those many years ago. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Yah I'm guessing those that are really interested can do a simple search for the good ole basket threads.

Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,085
  • Dec 1, 2019 8:16pm Dec 1, 2019 8:16pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Is it possible that you didn't read my post above? Can we please move on with the "fixing the already identified problem" part of this conversation? Or MAYBE I'm missing something...? Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Quote
Is it possible that you didn't read my post above?
@TyLamai -- I can read. I can analyze. I can -- and have -- solved problems -- better than most...

Quote
Or MAYBE I'm missing something...?
Yes. I understand you intended this as a rhetorical question and you don't really think you are missing anything. However, you should reconsider and think more deeply.

In post #1073 you suggested adding 8 more Indexes -- AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, NZD, JPY, USD. Each Index can include from [1,28] pairs -- that is nearly 1000 combinations PER Index. Furthermore, each Index requires Group A and Group B baskets -- and each of those baskets can include from [1,28] pairs -- again, nearly 1000 combinations per Group A and Group B baskets. Taken together, there are nearly a billion combinations of Indexes and baskets. Do you plan on testing all of them or only some of them? If only some of them, which ones? How do you decide which ones to test? How do you test? Who tests? What metric or criteria are used to determine which ones are keepers and which ones to ignore?

By the time your great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren have finished testing, it could turn out in the end they conclude the 'C' Indexes work best after all. It could be that "imbalances" are the magic sauce that drive basket trading's success. I don't know. I haven't seen evidence one way or the other.

From subsequent posts it seems that not everyone is on board changing the current strategy. Not everyone agrees there is a problem to be fixed. I'm not even sure anyone even knows what the "already identified problem" is. And, for sure, no one here understands how the 'C' Index they've been trading for many years is even constructed. And I also suspect that no one knows what it means to "normalize" values to create a balanced Index, let alone whether that even makes a difference.

I don't mean to discourage people from discussing -- but how about first getting on the same page:
1. Is there a problem? What's the evidence?
2. If there is a problem, what's the fix?
3. Who's going to fix it?
4. Who's going to test it?
5. What metric / criteria do you use to determine whether or not the fix improves performance?
6. What exactly do you mean by performance? Absolute profit? Win ratio? Profit factor? Draw down?
7. And other questions that I'll think of after I post this -- but you get the point.

My point is if you wish to solve a complex problem then break it down into smaller and smaller pieces until you understand exactly what is going on with each piece -- and then start building it back up. All people are doing now is waving their hands and making up wish lists with no clue what lies behind those wishes. When you have a better understanding of your wish list then you can begin working toward it.

And I already know the excuse -- "but I'm not a programmer". Yeah, yeah -- that's always the first excuse. But at this stage there is no programming -- it's just understanding what the problem is -- or, even if there is a problem. And understanding how your strategy works.
  • #1,086
  • Dec 1, 2019 9:45pm Dec 1, 2019 9:45pm
Quoting robots4me
{quote} {quote} @TyLamai -- I can read. I can analyze. I can -- and have -- solved problems -- better than most... {quote} Yes. I understand you intended this as a rhetorical question and you don't really think you are missing anything. However, you should reconsider and think more deeply. In post #1073 you suggested adding 8 more Indexes -- AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, NZD, JPY, USD. Each Index can include from [1,28] pairs -- that is nearly 1000 combinations PER Index. Furthermore, each Index requires Group A and Group B baskets -- and each of those...
Sigh...

I had this long-arsed, long-winded, reply all typed out but...

Moving on.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,087
  • Dec 1, 2019 10:43pm Dec 1, 2019 10:43pm
Steve, if you have solved problems better than most then this one shouldn't take you too long... but rather you than me.
I admit, I wouldn't have a clue....
I have a few ideas for the second version though...
Cheers.
  • #1,088
  • Edited 11:28pm Dec 1, 2019 11:15pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Sigh... I had this long-arsed, long-winded, reply all typed out but... Moving on. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Quote
I had this long-arsed, long-winded, reply all typed out but... Moving on.
So much for discussion -- and what about that expression "Iron begets iron"?

It's been said that the highest "degree of knowing" is knowing what you don't know. I don't claim to be there yet. It's really hard for adults because it requires acknowledging to yourself (and sometimes others) that you may not really know something that you've convinced yourself that you do.

Quote
Moving on.
I agree, and I'll take the hint, as well. Ty -- you have a wonderful thread and are an excellent trader. Basket trading is my favorite and I'm indebted to you and @bishopdotun. My basket trading is no different than most others, except for a little bit of customization and automation here and there -- but nothing that makes much of a difference.

Ty -- there is nothing more for me to learn or contribute here. I've shared everything -- including a basket creator indicator that does most of what you were wishing for (including an NZD-centric Index using flipped pairs) -- except no one noticed (but for one person).

Best of luck in your trading...
  • #1,089
  • Dec 2, 2019 2:37am Dec 2, 2019 2:37am
C5 H4 Index' (TD20,3) Buy signal is still valid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w16a1a_#TyC5#05H4.png Size: 66 KB

Same plotlines on the H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 00w16a1b_#TyC5#05H1.png Size: 74 KB


I still have no Buy DCs as can be seen from the visuals above, therefore I'm still not in a C5 basket trade. Nevertheless...

I now have a couple of Straggle trades running: AUDUSDb and EURUSDb. I talk about Stragglers here:
Quoting TyLamai
Trading Nuggets!:...For example:
These are the C14 Stragglers at the moment (b=Buys, s=Sells):
AUDUSDb
EURGBPb
EURUSDb
USDCHFs
USDJPYs
*They all have terrible swaps on my broker though...

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,090
  • Edited 3:17am Dec 2, 2019 2:53am | Edited 3:17am
The script that I posted in #1076 belongs to Khalil Abokwaik and can be downloaded from his Basket Robots thread for free. I posted the script in the hope that we can convert it to an indicator (because you can only drag one instance of a script onto a single chart, whereas you can have multiple indicators in a single chart). His script is perfect for creating offline indexes as it provides for both weight and direction assignment of pairs.

Quoting robots4me
{quote}My point is if you wish to solve a complex problem then break it down into smaller and smaller pieces
R4M, your detailed explanation is extremely valuable in giving us a road-map to define (and hopefully solve) the problem. Could you please kick off the journey by giving us an explanation of exactly how to calculate various weights within an index? On this page in Khalil’s thread, he explains the importance of weights and correct directions and in subsequent posts starts explaining how ADR or ATR50/100 is used as reference for the various weights, but unfortunately the thread fades without a concrete method and formula to enable traders to perform the calculations. In 2018 I searched far and wide all over the internet for the correct method to calculate basket weights but couldn’t find much information.

Could you please enlighten us with the math behind the indexes?

Appreciated,

Lee
Fix your thoughts on what is true, and honorable, and right, and pure...
  • #1,091
  • Dec 2, 2019 3:00am Dec 2, 2019 3:00am
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"Risk Explodes Higher as Week Begins

Risk assets exploded higher at the start of week's trade after Chinese PMI data which was released over the weekend showed improvement.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed at 50.2 versus 49.5 rising above the boom/bust 50 mark for the first time in 6 months. The services PMI improved as well, inching to 54.4 from 53.1 the month prior. The news sparked a sharp rally in risk FX at the start of Asian dealing with kiwi continuing its march higher as the pair broke above the key .6450 resistance by London morning trade.

The one pair that did not participate in the rally was the pound which wallowed near the 1.2900 figure after the latest series of polls showed that Labor may be strengthening which could lead to a hung Parliament scenario. One issue that is helping Corbyn is the fear that any free trade deal with the US would result in the dismantling of parts of the National Health Service which appears to be sacrosanct with UK voters, especially the elderly. The elderly have been the biggest voting block for Brexit and therefore Tories, but if Corbyn can use the NHS issue as a wedge he may be able to weaken Johnson just enough to prevent the PM from gaining a full majority. For now, cable continues to tread water near 1.2900.

There is now a broad investor consensus that the worst of the Trade War jitters are behind us as global economies resynchronize into a new growth cycle while the US and China continue to negotiate and not aggravate the situation with a series of new tariffs. This view has supported both equities and risk FX over the past few weeks and has been bolstered by marginally better economic data in the OECD.

USDJPY has cleared the key 109.50 level and is now eyeing the very psychologically important 110.00 level - a figure it hasn't seen since May of this year. Today's ISM Manufacturing report may be the key data point to determine if the bulls can push the pair over the finish line. The market is looking for a slight improvement to 49.2 from 48.3 but if the number can print above the 50 boom/bust level it should unleash a powerful wave of buying as the numbers would confirm that growth has returned." - Boris Schlossberg, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,092
  • Dec 2, 2019 6:32am Dec 2, 2019 6:32am
My long still heading north for now.

Dave
Attached Image
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,093
  • Edited 7:51am Dec 2, 2019 6:41am | Edited 7:51am
Quoting fmsfx
My long still heading north for now. Dave {image}
As it should.

Looking good Dave

My *Stragglers basket is also looking up.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,094
  • Dec 2, 2019 7:29am Dec 2, 2019 7:29am
I still can't seem to get a handle on the staggered basket thingy yet. Sooner or later I will find something that will work.

PS congrats on the RED Diamond status...don't let it go to your head...lol

Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,095
  • Dec 2, 2019 7:47am Dec 2, 2019 7:47am
Quoting fmsfx
...PS congrats on the RED Diamond status...don't let it go to your head...lol Dave...
Lol! Thanks Dave. I'll TRY!

It won't be easy. Although to be fair, I'm still trying to figure out HOW to wield all this new power I have...

Quote
I still can't seem to get a handle on the staggered basket thingy yet.
Read this post again...and if you still don't get it just hit me up (you know where).

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,096
  • Dec 2, 2019 7:50am Dec 2, 2019 7:50am
Serious movement on my CXS Crosses basket (EURAUD,EURNZD,GBPAUD,GBPNZD) all the way from Weekly Pivot to S78.

Total daily range so far just over 560 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CXS_BSKT.png Size: 41 KB
Fix your thoughts on what is true, and honorable, and right, and pure...
  • #1,097
  • Dec 2, 2019 8:04am Dec 2, 2019 8:04am
Quoting LifeHunt3r
Serious movement on my CXS Crosses basket (EURAUD,EURNZD,GBPAUD,GBPNZD) all the way from Weekly Pivot to S78. Total daily range so far just over 560 pips. {image}
Your setup looks WICKED Lee. Me likey!

PLUS: It nets you pips too.

Good news over the weekend from Asia maybe...? Who knows?

Thanks, we'll take it!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #1,098
  • Edited 4:35pm Dec 2, 2019 8:06am | Edited 4:35pm
Quoting LifeHunt3r
Serious movement on my CXS Crosses basket (EURAUD,EURNZD,GBPAUD,GBPNZD) all the way from Weekly Pivot to S78. Total daily range so far just over 560 pips. {image}
Seen the same thing Lee and closed down my B10 for a few pips. Now I will just wait for the DC to rinse and repeat.

I typically see around 250-350 pips on my B10 trades

Dave
Attached Image
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,099
  • Dec 2, 2019 8:09am Dec 2, 2019 8:09am
{quote} Read this post again...and if you still don't get it just hit me up (you know where). Regards and Stay fluid, Ty[/quote]

Will do. I'm trying to set something up via HAS and DB so kinda semi-automatic trading.

Dave
K.I.S.S.
  • #1,100
  • Dec 2, 2019 8:18am Dec 2, 2019 8:18am
Quoting fmsfx
{quote} Read this post again...and if you still don't get it just hit me up (you know where). Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Will do. I'm trying to set something up via HAS and DB so kinda semi-automatic trading. Dave[/quote]

Cool . Please let me know where I can help.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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