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Energetic H1 Strategy (Crude/Brent/Gas)

  • #221
  • Nov 12, 2019 1:46pm Nov 12, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting auricforecas
Also, do you count the season in? http://m.futuresmag.com/sites/defaul...46.22%20PM.png (http://m.futuresmag.com/2018/05/13/s...ay-natural-gas)
Yes, I take seasonality into account for sure while assessing my trades. For example, if the indicators in this system tell me to look for shorts (which might happen this week), I will not go against what I believe is the trend as defined by longer term sentiment and the effect of seasonality.
  • #222
  • Nov 13, 2019 12:10pm Nov 13, 2019 12:10pm
2.60 seems to be the level right now where we might see convergence of the trends. After that, we should see a significant trend develop.
  • #223
  • Nov 13, 2019 4:56pm Nov 13, 2019 4:56pm
Quoting nastynatty
{quote} Yes, I take seasonality into account for sure while assessing my trades. For example, if the indicators in this system tell me to look for shorts (which might happen this week), I will not go against what I believe is the trend as defined by longer term sentiment and the effect of seasonality.
What are the main parameters you are using? Seasons (as part of the demand), overall demand, some other events/parameters? For example certain development, political? About the season, do you count-in the season based on the previous/historic season or do you adjust it for possible offsets, as for example, you mentioned in another (hurricane) thread that early winter might be coming, do you count this in here also?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #224
  • Nov 14, 2019 1:46pm Nov 14, 2019 1:46pm
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} What are the main parameters you are using? Seasons (as part of the demand), overall demand, some other events/parameters? For example certain development, political? About the season, do you count-in the season based on the previous/historic season or do you adjust it for possible offsets, as for example, you mentioned in another (hurricane) thread that early winter might be coming, do you count this in here also?
In a word... yes . Demand and seasonality run together a lot for me. Non-standard weather patterns though can present some good opportunities for me. Political develops could matter, sure. But that is more of a one off consideration to me. Mostly I am considering the broad base and demand for natgas when considering where I think the trend is. If the market trend and seasonal trend are headed the same, I will look for positions headed that way. If one off somehow, I will generally stay more cautious and wait for an opportunity. I'm not too scientific with it, perhaps to a fault. I'm just trying to avoid rowing against the tide if I can help it.
  • #225
  • Nov 15, 2019 8:44am Nov 15, 2019 8:44am
The last couple days have seen a battle in the 2.6XX range. I'm done for the week. Looking forward to some solid trending next week!
  • #226
  • Nov 15, 2019 1:45pm Nov 15, 2019 1:45pm
Quoting nastynatty
The last couple days have seen a battle in the 2.6XX range. I'm done for the week. Looking forward to some solid trending next week!
Yeah, I agree and believe that we might see much clearer picture regarding this markets in the next week! Have to rest now Next week might be WILD or at least trend-setting, hopefully Also, seasonalities are much different for example CRUDE vs NGAS... hope people are aware of this...
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #227
  • Nov 18, 2019 11:02am Nov 18, 2019 11:02am
NG starting down on the week, dragging me further away from taking any action in the market. It looks like the 15 and 50 day EMAs may be heading to coverge. Waiting to see...
  • #228
  • Nov 18, 2019 11:08am Nov 18, 2019 11:08am
Quoting nastynatty
NG Starting down on starting down on the week, dragging me further away from taking any action in the market. It looks like the 15 and 50 day EMAs may be heading to coverge. Waiting to see...
Yeah, interesting.. I am in the WTI myself... Have made live trade today... But I am tracking NGAS on the side also... Would most probably not enter it but am still curious about it's trend... Seasonality for it should still be strong... for about a month... So yeah, will see by the end of the week... Do you have any theory about the DROP it took today? What seems to be the main issue for this, in your book? Gulfport Energy etc?
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #229
  • Nov 18, 2019 1:38pm Nov 18, 2019 1:38pm
Hi ppl. Sorry for my english. This strategy works only on Brent,WTI,Gas? Can I use it on M1-M5 timeframes?
  • #230
  • Nov 19, 2019 11:10am Nov 19, 2019 11:10am
Quoting Dovlet5
Hi ppl. Sorry for my english. This strategy works only on Brent,WTI,Gas? Can I use it on M1-M5 timeframes?
Well maybe others, specially thread-opener can answer you much better but I think you should try to apply it on other markets, you might find something But as I understand it was mainly (only) used in the markets thread starter mentioned... Same goes for timeframes... Try and please report
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #231
  • Nov 19, 2019 11:31am Nov 19, 2019 11:31am
Quoting auricforecas
{quote} Yeah, interesting.. I am in the WTI myself... Have made live trade today... But I am tracking NGAS on the side also... Would most probably not enter it but am still curious about it's trend... Seasonality for it should still be strong... for about a month... So yeah, will see by the end of the week... Do you have any theory about the DROP it took today? What seems to be the main issue for this, in your book? Gulfport Energy etc?
So far seeing a continuation of the downtrend today, so it seem it is more than just news driven. We may be seeing a down trend develop in the medium timeframe though I doubt bears will have much room to drag it down.
  • #232
  • Nov 19, 2019 11:33am Nov 19, 2019 11:33am
Quoting Dovlet5
Hi ppl. Sorry for my english. This strategy works only on Brent,WTI,Gas? Can I use it on M1-M5 timeframes?
In my experience, the system is useful for helping to identify a trend and therefore where to take short or long positions. It's risky to go long when the market is generally moving down and vice versa. I stick to the higher time frames for such analysis and MAYBE get down to the lower timeframes to identify entry points. Not that I'm the greatest trader but that is what I am currently working with
  • #233
  • Nov 20, 2019 9:57am Nov 20, 2019 9:57am
yes, it helps in high timeframes, but i'm scalper, don't like to wait for days or weeks=) so i'm looking for system for scalping
  • #234
  • Nov 20, 2019 1:34pm Nov 20, 2019 1:34pm
Natgas bulls fighting back today, albeit on still lower volume. The 15 day ema is still headed south and therefore I am neutral as things stand. Tomorrow's inventory day should provide some volatility and maybe the market will settle on a direction later in the week.
Attached Image
  • #235
  • Nov 20, 2019 9:15pm Nov 20, 2019 9:15pm
20/11/19

XBRUSD

Levels of interest
64.46
63.69
63.44
61.9
60.8


As things stand, both our leading line and entry line are heading for a break higher and above the 200.
Price structure also seeming to be forming what would be a inverted head and shoulder as such, looking to load long....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XBRUSDH1_LI.jpg Size: 777 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #236
  • Nov 20, 2019 9:18pm Nov 20, 2019 9:18pm
Quoting Dovlet5
yes, it helps in high timeframes, but i'm scalper, don't like to wait for days or weeks=) so i'm looking for system for scalping
Try adjust the system settings like this and see how it goes:

The green entry line: 25 EMA
the Blue Leading line:10 EMA

These settings should give you more entries with all else being the same mate...

Green Pips Bud
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #237
  • Nov 20, 2019 10:02pm Nov 20, 2019 10:02pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Try adjust the system settings like this and see how it goes: The green entry line: 25 EMA the Blue Leading line:10 EMA These settings should give you more entries with all else being the same mate... Green Pips Bud
Thanks!! I'll try it!
  • #238
  • Nov 20, 2019 10:56pm Nov 20, 2019 10:56pm
21/11/19


XTIUSD
Crude Oil


Following the bearish run off late, price is looking to pull back and trade back above the 200, with that said our leading line and the entry line are all pointing northwards and as such any retests/ pull backs towards the entry line will see me look long. Similar to brent crude, price is seeming to be forming an Inverted HnS pattern with price currently looking to map out the right hand shoulder....


Key Levels of interest today:
58.87
58.21
57.92
56.31
55.56
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDH1_LI.jpg Size: 774 KB
4&1 All Time Profit: $37,496
  • #239
  • Nov 21, 2019 11:58am Nov 21, 2019 11:58am
Quoting MzansiObi
21/11/19 XTIUSD Crude Oil Following the bearish run off late, price is looking to pull back and trade back above the 200, with that said our leading line and the entry line are all pointing northwards and as such any retests/ pull backs towards the entry line will see me look long. Similar to brent crude, price is seeming to be forming an Inverted HnS pattern with price currently looking to map out the right hand shoulder.... Key Levels of interest today: 58.87 58.21 57.92 56.31 55.56 {image}
Great man, If I read your attached TEs right, your system appears to be working best when mine doesn't.. so together we might have the ultimate hedge
Would really like to see how your trading/TE goes in the next 3 weeks... We might cherry-pick best elements of both/all Curious, will be checking your progress
Can you afford to take that chance?
  • #240
  • Nov 21, 2019 2:51pm Nov 21, 2019 2:51pm
Quoting MzansiObi
{quote} Try adjust the system settings like this and see how it goes: The green entry line: 25 EMA the Blue Leading line:10 EMA These settings should give you more entries with all else being the same mate... Green Pips Bud
Glad to have you back Mzansi! I had been missing you bud.

I've still been watching natgas but am currently neutral while the market is fighting for a direction.
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