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Basket Knights - A Basket Trading Round Table

  • #581
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:13am Oct 15, 2019 10:13am
Quoting bishopdotun
New Basket Alert This is for lovers of basket trading who would like to try something new. No GBP, No CHF. Heavy on commodity pairs. RB7 Basket Pairs: CADJPY,AUDJPY,NZDJPY,EURJPY,AUDUSD,USDJPY,NZDUSD Trading as: Main direction: CADJPY,AUDJPY,NZDJPY,EURJPY,AUDUSD,USDJPY,NZDUSD,EURUSD,AUDCAD,NZDCAD Opposite direction: AUDNZD,EURNZD,EURAUD,EURCAD,USDCAD {image}
I banked this also. +290 pips.

I am now clean and on the sidelines.

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  • #582
  • Oct 15, 2019 10:15am Oct 15, 2019 10:15am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} I banked this also. +290 pips. I am now clean and on the sidelines. {image}
Congrats Bishop on the pip haul-I am happy for you...
  • #583
  • Oct 15, 2019 1:35pm Oct 15, 2019 1:35pm
Ty, I like seeing you doing baskets...played with before as others have.

Everything setup like a charm and screen shot below. Just waiting to kick off script when signaled then watch and learn.

I'd also like to get involved in Skype to accelerate learning...Rando
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  • #584
  • Oct 16, 2019 12:46am Oct 16, 2019 12:46am
Bulls still active.

Waiting for the retrace and re-entry opportunity to be confirmed.

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  • #585
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:29am Oct 16, 2019 2:29am
My long overdue pic of my set up @TyLamai

I am not great at being patient so still probably come out of trades too early.

Here is C5 H4. As per first post instructions: the additional indi is a supply-demand which is like my training wheels it gives me good areas to look out for. (Thanks to the C-12 thread for that)

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EX BBMA trader focusing on REE code.
  • #586
  • Oct 16, 2019 8:48am Oct 16, 2019 8:48am
Quoting bishopdotun
Bulls still active. Waiting for the retrace and re-entry opportunity to be confirmed. {image} {image}
Now long on both C14 and RB7

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  • #587
  • Oct 16, 2019 10:20am Oct 16, 2019 10:20am
Thanks to the members who are updating us with their trades and baskets. I can't post much at the moment due to crazy storms and service interruptions.

I'm still with the Buy basket and it's still valid. I'll update as I can.

*@BD, thanks for your RB7 addition. Well done!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #588
  • Oct 16, 2019 10:44am Oct 16, 2019 10:44am

Hello Everyone,

Since Ty is not in a position to post continuously. I have taken the liberty to update the Fundamentals... I hope it is alright with you Ty...

****************************

Brexit Deal in Sight. Which Currencies are Set to Rally?


With 16 days to go before the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union, a Brexit deal is finally in sight but its still important for investors to tread cautiously because of the inevitable resistance from the DUP and reports from "senior EU officials" that its "way too premature" to assume that a Brexit deal is imminent. Nonetheless sterling and many other major currencies traded sharply higher today on reports that EU and UK Brexit negotiators are close to a deal after Boris Johnson agreed to have a customs border down the Irish Sea. As the negotiations proceed and we watch for comments from EU and DUP officials, the rollercoaster ride will continue for sterling.

What makes today's price action valuable is the currencies that reacted to the news and the ones that didn't as they will provide a guide to how we should trade when the deal is made official. An agreement that assures a smooth exit is good for everyone because it eliminates one of the biggest uncertainties and darkest clouds hovering over the markets for the past few years. If the UK were to leave the European Union with no agreement, the biggest disruptions will be to the EU and UK. In that case, the greatest weakness will be in sterling and the euro. By the same token, sterling and the euro will rally the most when an agreement is announced. We saw a glimpse of that today when EURUSD surged 50 pips in less than an hour on Brexit news. Of course, sterling's reaction was even greater with GBP jumping more than 100 pips in a matter of minutes. USD/JPY also rallied on the news and its gains drove all of the yen crosses higher. Although AUD/USD and NZD/USD perked up as well, their moves were modest and unsustainable while USD/CHF barely budged. So when a deal is announced, our favorite currencies to buy will be GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF and EUR/NZD.

As we saw today, data mattered little to sterling in such a politically charged week. UK labor market numbers were worse than expected with jobless claims rising and average weekly earnings slowing. CPI numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and while monthly price growth is expected to ease, on a year over year basis prices should have accelerated. Euro which started the NY session weak ended the day unchanged despite a lower than expected ZEW survey. Investors grew more pessimistic about current and future conditions in Germany, a situation that should worsen as incoming data shows the economy falling into recession.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD will be in focus tomorrow with US retail sales and Canadian CPI scheduled for release. Although USD/JPY surged towards 109 today, weaker wage growth is a precursor to weakening demand. Economists are looking for retail sales growth to slow to 0.3% from 0.4% in September but a worse outcome will renew the pair's decline and expectations for easing later this month. The Beige Book will come out in the afternoon and we expect Fed districts to report weakness. Canada's inflation numbers on the other hand should surprise to the upside with IVEY PMI reporting a significant jump in prices. Strong underlying fundamentals helped Canada defy the slide in oil prices today but for the rally to continue, CPI needs to be strong. New Zealand inflation data is also scheduled for release and like the UK and Canada, higher prices are expected.


****************************

Thanks
  • #589
  • Oct 16, 2019 10:47am Oct 16, 2019 10:47am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} Now long on both C14 and RB7 {image} {image}
Banked my C14. Looks like there is a resistance over there

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RB7 is still open

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  • #590
  • Oct 16, 2019 11:07am Oct 16, 2019 11:07am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} Banked my C14. Looks like there is a resistance over there {image} RB7 is still open {image}
Banked RB7 also. Now clean for the evening and waiting on the side for the next retrace and re-entry opportunity.

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  • #591
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:23pm Oct 16, 2019 1:23pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} C12 H4 Buy basket is still valid...+1,025 pips banked so far with -115 pips floating. {image} *The GBP has been excessively good to me during this Buy basket [EG, GF, GJ, & GU]. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
C12 H4 Buy basket is still valid...+1,709 pips banked so far with -8 pips floating.
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #592
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:25pm Oct 16, 2019 1:25pm
Quoting aaven
Hello Everyone, Since Ty is not in a position to post continuously. I have taken the liberty to update the Fundamentals... I hope it is alright with you Ty... **************************** Brexit Deal in Sight. Which Currencies are Set to Rally? With 16 days to go before the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union, a Brexit deal is finally in sight but its still important for investors to tread cautiously because of the inevitable resistance from the DUP and reports from "senior EU officials" that its "way too premature" to assume that a Brexit...
Oh yes it's VERY alright with me aaven! This is a Round Table for a reason. Thank you.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #593
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:47pm Oct 16, 2019 1:47pm
Quoting TyLamai
{quote} Oh yes it's VERY alright with me aaven! This is a Round Table for a reason. Thank you. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Just to highlight a few SALIENT points from the fundies posted above by aaven:

If the UK were to leave the European Union with no agreement, the biggest disruptions will be to the EU and UK. In that case, the greatest weakness will be in sterling and the euro. By the same token, sterling and the euro will rally the most when an agreement is announced. We saw a glimpse of that today when EURUSD surged 50 pips in less than an hour on Brexit news. Of course, sterling's reaction was even greater with GBP jumping more than 100 pips in a matter of minutes.

So when a deal is announced, our favorite currencies to buy will be GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF, *GBP/AUD, EUR/JPY, *EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF and *EUR/NZD.
*Observe that a few of these pairs are NOT regular C14 basket pairs - but if you are inclined, then this is where Bishop Dotun's RB7 Basket comes into play.

Investors grew more pessimistic about current and future conditions in Germany, a situation that should worsen as incoming data shows the economy falling into recession.
*Keep this in mind Post-Brexit (which may not be as far away as we assume...)

Not in the Fundies compilation but still important to note: Upcoming Elections in Canada (Monday 21st October, 2019)
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Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #594
  • Oct 16, 2019 1:53pm Oct 16, 2019 1:53pm
Quoting Randolermo
Ty, I like seeing you doing baskets...played with before as others have. Everything setup like a charm and screen shot below. Just waiting to kick off script when signaled then watch and learn. I'd also like to get involved in Skype to accelerate learning...Rando {image}
Welcome to our Round Table Randolermo!

You are one of the older Basket traders - we hope to benefit from your experience as we journey onward in profit.

PM sent.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #595
  • Oct 16, 2019 2:02pm Oct 16, 2019 2:02pm
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} Now long on both C14 and RB7 {image} {image}
This was a GREAT catch for me today!

By the way BD, I just sent you a PM.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #596
  • Oct 16, 2019 3:48pm Oct 16, 2019 3:48pm
Fundies: Truths and Rumours.


"EUR Hits 1 Month Highs on US Data & Brexit Optimism
Euro hit a 1-month high against the US dollar today on the back of stronger Eurozone data, weaker US data and Brexit optimism. The single currency had been trending higher for most of this week with a large part of its strength driven by the prospect of Brexit deal that would reduce uncertainty and remove a major risk for not only the UK but all members of the Eurozone. A deal is close with German Chancellor Merkel saying "we are in the last meters of the negotiation" and French President Macron adding that a "Brexit agreement is being finalized." An agreement should be announced in the next 24 to 48 hours and when that happens we expect all of the major currencies to rally including the euro. The September high of 1.1109 would be the target but the rally could extend as high as 1.1150 if the market finds the deal favorable. While Eurozone data is still expected to worsen, in the very near term Brexit optimism and the prospect of a Fed rate cut later this month will be main drivers of EUR/USD flows.

The same is true for sterling. GBP/USD traded higher for the fourth time in five trading days despite weaker inflation data. The pair reached its strongest level since May 2019 on the prospect of an imminent agreement. An agreement wasn't reached today but investors expect EU leaders to piece together a deal by Thursday or Friday. The latest consumer price report shows that inflationary pressures in the UK have been relatively contained. On a monthly basis, CPI growth eased to 0.1% from 0.4% and year over year, prices stayed at 1.7%. Retail sales are scheduled for release tomorrow and while we are looking for a further drop in spending, investors will continue to shrug the data off in favor of positive Brexit headlines.

Meanwhile the US dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies on the back of an atrocious retail sales report. Consumer spending dropped for the first time in 7 months by the largest amount since February. Excluding autos the decline wasn't as sharp but retail sales was still negative. Expectations for a rate cut shot higher in responsee with Fed fund futures now pricing in 86% chance of easing this month, up from 72% yesterday. Spending is the back bone of the economy and the latest report gives the doves their strongest reason to back a third rate cut this year. According to the Fed's Beige Book, businesses see expansion but many have cut their outlook. With that said, they report that the economy expanded at a slight to modest pace with tight labor market and rising wages. Fed Presidents Kaplan and Evans spoke today and the former seems more skeptical of a rate cut than the latter although Evans also feels that the economic data seems pretty good and the economy is navigating risks pretty well. Although EUR, GBP and other major currencies outperformed the greenback today, the losses in USD/JPY were limited despite weak data. Looking at the charts, USD/JPY is due for a correction especially as we get closer to October Fed meeting. Tomorrow's housing starts and building permits are not expected to have much impact on the greenback but the Philadelphia Fed index could ignite some movements.

The New Zealand dollar was the only currency to underperform the greenback. Even though CPI growth accelerated in the third quarter, the year over year rate slowed to 1.5% from 1.7%. The market is looking for one more rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand this year and NZD is weakening because the data reinforces their expectations. In contrast investors do not expect the Bank of Canada to ease this year, which explains why the currency completely shrugged off their softer inflation report. CPI fell -0.4% in September with the year over year rate holding steady at 1.9% instead of accelerating to 2.1% like economists anticipated. The Australian dollar is in focus tonight with labor market numbers scheduled for release. The RBA pulled the trigger on easing earlier this month and think tonight's report will justify their decision. AUD/USD remains under pressures with 68 and 67 cents the key levels to watch." - Kathy Lien, BK Asset Management


Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #597
  • Oct 17, 2019 12:10am Oct 17, 2019 12:10am
AUD news pushed the remainder of my open C14 positions my way (AJ, AU, NJ, & NU). Closed all my trades at the close of the news candle. (*I'll attach visuals as soon as I can)

Expecting A LOT of drama in the market between now and Tuesday. If I can, I'll take advantage, else, I'll sit on my hands on the sidelines.

For a Buy basket I don't trust, it sure has been uber-pipful.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #598
  • Oct 17, 2019 3:24am Oct 17, 2019 3:24am
Heads up: GBP Reds upfront in about 5 mins + Good DCs on the C14 GBP crosses. Could make for great fireworks if all goes well.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #599
  • Oct 17, 2019 4:04am Oct 17, 2019 4:04am
Quoting TyLamai
Heads up: GBP Reds upfront in about 5 mins + Good DCs on the C14 GBP crosses. Could make for great fireworks if all goes well. Regards and Stay fluid, Ty
Hope someone took advantage of this.

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
  • #600
  • Oct 17, 2019 4:37am Oct 17, 2019 4:37am
Quoting TyLamai
AUD news pushed the remainder of my open C14 positions my way (AJ, AU, NJ, & NU). Closed all my trades at the close of the news candle. (*I'll attach visuals as soon as I can)
I TRIED HARD to do this...but Price is just toooooo fast!

I'm on FIRE today!!!

Regards and Stay fluid,

Ty
My job: I speculate and manage risk.
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