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  • #521
  • Jun 3, 2019 9:39pm Jun 3, 2019 9:39pm
I short AC instead.
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I will do my best!
  • #522
  • Jun 3, 2019 9:46pm Jun 3, 2019 9:46pm
Quoting JoeeF
{quote} UC update ... {image} {image}
I closed UC ...
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #523
  • Jun 3, 2019 10:10pm Jun 3, 2019 10:10pm
Quoting JoeeF
As for how the Australian dollar could respond, guidance is key. If the RBA lowers interest rates and appears uncommitted to additional easing, the deeply oversold AUD/USD could squeeze up a percent and head even higher on short covering. All they have to say is future moves are data dependent. If they cut rates and talk of more easing but also highlight the areas of strength / resilience in Australia's economy, we could a modest decline in A$. However if they lower interest rates and signals that this move marks the beginning of a more aggressive easing cycle, we could see a deeper slide in AUD/USD that could take the pair towards 67 cents.{image}
The RBA's rate cut today was one month in the making, what's next?

The RBA simply couldn't ignore its inflation mandate any more
Considering inflation data and the outlook, the RBA should've moved last month to cut rates as mentioned here at the time. They didn't and I chalked that up to being a political move and the decision this month certainly vindicates that assessment.

They did cut the cash rate today as expected but it's really been one month in the making already and now they're going back to their data dependent rhetoric yet again. The key takeaway from their decision here is that they didn't give any firm commitment to future rate cuts but they're not taking such a possibility off the table either.

So, what's next?

The RBA can only go against the current for so long. Domestic and global economic headwinds continue to persist and with inflation not seen recovering in a robust manner towards their 2% to 3% target band, more rate cuts down the road look more likely.

I thought the RBA would've given more for traders to digest but really, there isn't anything in the statement worth noting as this is exactly the same kind of stuff we've been talking about since April and May.

As such, keep a continued focus on further data in the coming weeks/months. Of note, we'll get the GDP report tomorrow and labour market report next week. Those will be key points to focus on but I reckon as more and more data creeps in, it'll only serve to justify that further rate cuts are needed later this year.

Source: ForexLive
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #524
  • Jun 3, 2019 10:37pm Jun 3, 2019 10:37pm
Aussie gains falter as the dust starts to settle after RBA decision

AUD/USD moved up to a high of 0.6993 on the decision before falling off
As mentioned in the posts before this, the RBA did not give much away as they made no firm mention on further rate cuts but given their language, they also did not rule out the possibility of that in the coming meetings.

The aussie gained on profit taking as expected but has quickly retraced the earlier advance to be lower on the day again. What gives?

After glancing through the RBA statement, it really didn't offer much of anything new as this could've been fit into the May statement instead. That means that we're one month out and there isn't anything new to digest.

The only thing we can look forward to now is further data, which I expect will reaffirm further calls of more rate cuts down the road. Other than that, watch out for domestic banks' reactions to this. ANZ had just announced an 18 bps cut to its mortgage rate, failing to pass on the full 25 bps rate cut by the RBA.

Source: ForexLive
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #525
  • Jun 3, 2019 10:43pm Jun 3, 2019 10:43pm
Quoting JoeeF
{quote} The RBA's rate cut today was one month in the making, what's next? The RBA simply couldn't ignore its inflation mandate any more Considering inflation data and the outlook, the RBA should've moved last month to cut rates as mentioned here at the time. They didn't and I chalked that up to being a political...
Quoting JoeeF
Aussie gains falter as the dust starts to settle after RBA decision AUD/USD moved up to a high of 0.6993 on the decision before falling off As mentioned in the posts before this, the RBA did not give much away as they made no firm mention on further rate cuts but given their language, they also did not rule out the possibility of that in the coming meetings. The aussie gained on profit taking as expected but has quickly...
Really tough decision. I'm not sure ...
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #526
  • Jun 3, 2019 11:34pm Jun 3, 2019 11:34pm
Short gold
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I will do my best!
  • #527
  • Jun 4, 2019 12:02am Jun 4, 2019 12:02am
Quoting FXShoujo
Short gold {image}
It's really nice spot. R100. The third attempt to go higher ...
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #528
  • Jun 4, 2019 12:59am Jun 4, 2019 12:59am
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  • #529
  • Jun 4, 2019 1:22am Jun 4, 2019 1:22am
Quoting kette
{image} {image}
EA
You have entered on the bounce of WP, the first target R38. But your decision was based on MP I suppose.
I wasn't able to use MP successfully ...
regards
And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #530
  • Jun 4, 2019 1:31am Jun 4, 2019 1:31am
LOL
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #531
  • Jun 4, 2019 2:46am Jun 4, 2019 2:46am
RBA's Lowe: Not unreasonable to expect a lower cash rate from here

RBA governor, Philip Lowe, speaks in Sydney

  1. The board has not yet made a decision, much depends on labour market
  2. Economic forecasts had assumed rates at 1% by year-end
  3. Rate decision was not in response to deterioration in outlook since May
  4. Easing aimed at spurring jobs growth, lifting inflation
  5. Rate cut is to lead lower AUD than otherwise would have been the case
  6. One option is for fiscal support, including spending on infrastructure
  7. Says that banks should fully pass through rate cut through mortgage rates
  8. Well aware that savers will be disappointed by rate cut

Pretty much just reaffirming the message in what the central bank statement was trying to convene, in that there is no firm commitment to future rate cuts and that they will be data dependent. But also that future rate cuts are not off the table, so that'll keep markets guessing for now.

As mentioned earlier, if their stance is to rely on the data and global economic developments, they're more likely going to get more disappointed so that'll open the path for another cut later on in the year in my view.

AUD/USD sits unchanged at 0.6977 currently, not really doing much on the session. There will be a Q&A session between Lowe and the media later at 0950 GMT so let's see if there will be anything else of note to follow.

Source: ForexLive

And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #532
  • Jun 4, 2019 3:28am Jun 4, 2019 3:28am
I think euraud is going south towards s38 lets see

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  • #533
  • Jun 4, 2019 4:15am Jun 4, 2019 4:15am
Quoting Msmaximus
I think euraud is going south towards s38 lets see {image}
Maybe you're right maybe not. There is an indecision there ...
And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #534
  • Jun 4, 2019 5:01am Jun 4, 2019 5:01am
Another one lets see.

Remember live in today be happy today but have big objectives!
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  • #535
  • Jun 4, 2019 7:07am Jun 4, 2019 7:07am
Closed my AC, I don't like the movement of the PA.
I will do my best!
  • #536
  • Jun 4, 2019 7:19am Jun 4, 2019 7:19am
Fed's Powell: Fed will 'act as appropriate' to sustain expansion

Powell discusses monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices

  1. Fed 'closely monitoring' impact of trade developments
  2. Economy growing, unemployment low, inflation stable
  3. Fed does take seriously that persistent low inflation unhinges inflation expectations
  4. We do not know how or when trade issues will be resolved
  5. Much higher likelihood rates will fall to effective lower bound in a downturn
  6. Crisis-era tools worked and are likely to be needed again
  7. 'Dot plot' has distracted attention from how Fed will react to unexpected events

Powell opened the door here to a rate cut but only if the trade war continues or escalates. He's basically telling the market that cuts will come if there is more trouble. The market might have wanted something a bit more explicit but I think as this is digested the US dollar will soften.

There is no scheduled Q&A.

Source: ForexLive

And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #537
  • Jun 4, 2019 8:52am Jun 4, 2019 8:52am
Quoting JoeeF
Fed's Powell: Fed will 'act as appropriate' to sustain expansion Powell discusses monetary policy strategy, tools and communication practices Fed 'closely monitoring' impact of trade developments Economy growing, unemployment low, inflation stable Fed does take seriously that persistent low inflation unhinges inflation expectations We do not know how or when trade issues will be resolved Much higher likelihood rates will fall to effective lower bound in a downturn Crisis-era...
So dolar is going to lose traction?
Btw both trades hitted my sl.
  • #538
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:08am Jun 4, 2019 9:08am
Quoting Msmaximus
I think euraud is going south towards s38 lets see {image}
Quoting Msmaximus
{quote} Btw both trades hitted my sl.
EA
Your direction was right.
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #539
  • Jun 4, 2019 9:13am Jun 4, 2019 9:13am
Quoting Msmaximus
{quote} So dolar is going to lose traction?
This is really tough question. It seems that yes but no one knows future.
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
  • #540
  • Jun 4, 2019 11:13am Jun 4, 2019 11:13am
Quoting JoeeF
{quote} This is really tough question. It seems that yes but no one knows future. {image}
Sell limit at R161 ...
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And you will leave pain to take care of itself.
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