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  • #881
  • May 3, 2019 5:14am May 3, 2019 5:14am
Quoting Ll1979
long @ 61.962 let's see what happens
She finally start moving.
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persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #882
  • Edited 6:09am May 3, 2019 5:18am | Edited 6:09am
Quoting Ll1979
long @ 61.962 let's see what happens
joining you on wti cfd
long @61.93 [email protected] sl below 61.50 to evaluate scale out or get out
Edit: [email protected]
  • #883
  • May 3, 2019 5:31am May 3, 2019 5:31am
Iran's crude oil exports to drop to 400,000-700,000 bpd in May - Reuters
3 May 2019, 15:12

Citing an Iranian official familiar with the matter, Reuters reported that Iran's crude oil exports could drop to 700,000 barrels per day and as low as 500,000 per day from May onwards. Similarly, an OPEC source said that they were expecting exports to drop to 400,000 - 600,000 bpd range.
"Washington, aiming to cut Iran's sales to zero, said all sanctions waivers for those importing Iranian oil would end this week. Iran says this will not happen, although its officials are bracing for a drop in supplies," the article explained.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #884
  • May 3, 2019 7:41am May 3, 2019 7:41am
The market is currently testing last weeks low at 62.28

I think if it can move into last weeks range and hold we could be on our way back into the uptrend.....we'll see

Quiet on here today
All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #885
  • May 3, 2019 7:50am May 3, 2019 7:50am
Well good evening traders, please this question goes to those news traders please can any news trader explain why the price is moving up aganst the dollar while there is overall good news for the dollar today? I have said it over and over news has nothing or little to do with FX trading is pure computer program.
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  • #886
  • Edited 8:28am May 3, 2019 8:14am | Edited 8:28am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} She finally start moving. {image}
Out @ 62.408
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #887
  • Edited 8:47am May 3, 2019 8:33am | Edited 8:47am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Out @ 62.408
good trade

I got in againg but very late @62.10 long wti cfd [email protected]
was too busy with eu that is half sleepy even in a nfp day
edit: [email protected]
  • #888
  • May 3, 2019 8:47am May 3, 2019 8:47am
Quoting valter
{quote} good trade I got in againg but very late @62.10 long wti cfd [email protected] was too busy with eu that is half sleepy even in a nfp day
Wti can makes some nasty uturns from time to time hope you will hit your tp.
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #889
  • May 3, 2019 8:53am May 3, 2019 8:53am
Quoting Ll1979
{quote} Wti can makes some nasty uturns from time to time hope you will hit your tp.
I already closed @62.16
edited my post earlier
  • #890
  • May 3, 2019 9:51am May 3, 2019 9:51am
Quoting Capitalone1
Well good evening traders, please this question goes to those news traders please can any news trader explain why the price is moving up aganst the dollar while there is overall good news for the dollar today? I have said it over and over news has nothing or little to do with FX trading is pure computer program. {image}
Institutions rarely trade the news releases they trade their economic forecasts for the news release. The trade is over by the time news comes out and they will usually use the volume generated to exit their trade.

Are you asking why is Oil going up and the USD going down?
Well good economic data is going to lift expectations for future demand on Oil and therefore you would start to see demand pressure and a price rise.
USD will go down as traders will look to invest their money in more risky assets and therefore sell USD or USD based assets and buy higher risk assets that are cheap at the moment like the EUR or DAX. As Oil is priced in USD if the price of USD drops this will also put upward pressure on Oil as it becomes cheaper and cheaper relative to the USD.

Also the expectation is that the FED is down with raising interest rates hence yields dropping today. Currencies like EUR have a lot more room to increase interest rates so any positive data out of the eurozone is going to put downward pressure on the USD.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #891
  • May 3, 2019 10:26am May 3, 2019 10:26am
united states baker hughes us oil rig count rose from previous 805 to 807
persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #892
  • May 3, 2019 12:31pm May 3, 2019 12:31pm
From your explanation it looks like you know what you are doing in this business, but i was not talking about Oil or stock because i know trading stock/oil fundamentals has a big impart but my question was for FX news traders, i really like your explanation i must say that again because this forum is full of traders with less knowledge of how forex or trading in all works but your reply shows me maybe some out there is with clue on how trading works.
  • #893
  • May 3, 2019 2:54pm May 3, 2019 2:54pm
Quoting riclater211
{quote} Hey All, Price has broke my trend line for the second time this week. Price came very close to short side trade area @ 70.00 but just could not make it. Another reason I use whole numbers. Banks and institutions use them so should I. So should you but I shouldn't tell anyone how to trade. Anyway, If price breaks my trend line one more time, that should put me into a short on Brent with a 8% - 10% target range. - Ric {image}
Hey All,

Not much to say for this end of week. Price bounced off the trend line. We shall see if I get a price break to the down side or not week. I actually prefer it.

Have A Great Weekend.

- Ric
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Be humble or get humbled
  • #894
  • May 3, 2019 3:59pm May 3, 2019 3:59pm
End-of-week chart. A relatively quiet Friday.
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  • #895
  • May 4, 2019 12:38am May 4, 2019 12:38am
Quoting Capitalone1
From your explanation it looks like you know what you are doing in this business, but i was not talking about Oil or stock because i know trading stock/oil fundamentals has a big impart but my question was for FX news traders, i really like your explanation i must say that again because this forum is full of traders with less knowledge of how forex or trading in all works but your reply shows me maybe some out there is with clue on how trading works.
I was trained (and still mentored) by an institutional trader.
We trade what is called statistical arbitrage where instruments are valued against correlated assets in addition to analysing the various yield curves to understand the general conditions of the markets. He has taught me to understand how institutions trade news, how markets are structured, the market makers models, orderflow etc etc and most importantly how to accurately value and instrument so we know when we are trading at a discount or a premium.

Here is the main value relationship or the EUR. You can see what a discounted price the Eur is trading at and why there is upward pressure on it at the moment.
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This is a simple model for Oil. This is just one value line so you can easily see the discounts and premiums it trades at.
We would look to trade the divergences between value and price.

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BTW you should reply directly to my post otherwise I do not get an alert that someone has replied to my post and might miss your response.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #896
  • May 5, 2019 3:30pm May 5, 2019 3:30pm
WTI gaped down on open Sunday night, still optimistic about direction, trade-able either way it is.
EDIT
Taken a small buy on the gap being filled.

It's completed on the trend line on the 1hr
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #897
  • May 5, 2019 9:55pm May 5, 2019 9:55pm
WTI broke $60.70/60 support-confluence as US-China trade deal becomes uncertain

  1. China retaliated to the US threat by dimming prospects on the much-awaited trade deal.
  2. Break of important support joins a fundamental catalyst to please the bears.

Having breached the 50-day and 200-day SMA support-confluence, WTI trades near the five-week low of $60.10 during early Monday.
The energy benchmark slipped beneath important rest initially on the US President Donald Trump’s tweets that threatened to levy fresh tariffs on China.
The low downturn became fierce after the US journalist tweeted that China’s Vice Premier Liu He has canceled his trip to Washington in response to recent actions from President Trump.

The US and China were earlier closer to a deal and Chinese delegation of lawmakers was to visit Washington to give the final touch to the much-awaited trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.

However, President Trump blamed the speed of progress and China’s renegotiation tactics to fire the gun on Sunday.
Adding to the black gold’s weakness could be an increase in the US crude oil rig counts by 2 to 807 for the week ended on May 03.
Given the fresh challenges to previously certain trade deal (that could have pleased energy buyers), join the break of important support, bears gain extra power.

Technical Analysis
FXStreet Analyst Ross J. Burland expects $57.89 to appear on the chart backed by the price-dip beneath the golden cross:
Should the price continue to deteriorate below the Golden Cross, the price could drop by at least the height of the wedge (measured at the base where the two trendlines start) which is around $10.80 for a target of $52.00 (at weekly 200 MA/ 50 pips above Feb lows). However, the first target comes in at 57.89 although stochastics are no clearer either for determining where the price is heading; The monthly indicator leans bullish, weekly bearish and daily also leans bullish.

Also Read: WTI Technical Analysis: Bears on top, ducking blow Golden Cross, targets 57.80s

persistence and determination alone are omnipotent
  • #898
  • May 6, 2019 4:54am May 6, 2019 4:54am
Gap is all but closed, only a few pips to make up, closed my buy for a small opportunist profit, seems all markets have reacted on Mr T's tweets, only wished mine could have the same effect, more news on CNBC about warships going to Iran to block and enforce their sanctions, how this will bear on oil is any ones guess, seems we're at a junction with the charts too, any opinions?.
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I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #899
  • Edited 5:44am May 6, 2019 5:21am | Edited 5:44am
Quoting detector
Gap is all but closed, only a few pips to make up, closed my buy for a small opportunist profit, seems all markets have reacted on Mr T's tweets, only wished mine could have the same effect, more news on CNBC about warships going to Iran to block and enforce their sanctions, how this will bear on oil is any ones guess, seems we're at a junction with the charts too, any opinions?. {image}
My view is if PA stays above 61.50 next level is 62.30/36 and if consolidation below 61.20/60.90 next level is 56.70ish (wti cfd)

By the way I have small long [email protected], [email protected] but ready to bail
Bailed @1.1188
  • #900
  • May 6, 2019 5:35am May 6, 2019 5:35am
Quoting valter
{quote} My view is if PA stays above 61.50 next level is 62.30/36 and if consolidation below 61.20/60.90 next level is 56.70ish (wti cfd) By the way I have small long [email protected], [email protected] but ready to bail
I see 1.11960, if the price holds above again it looks positive, as does the 1&4hr I tend to use a wide stop when I'm at the screen, mostly have a target that it hits then I close, probs under the gapped bar, please though, use your own judgement, I could not forgive myself if I got it wrong and others lost money, also I tend to reduce down, a small profit is as good as a small loss that lets you live to fight another day, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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