Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

Good Morning Benjamin,



How was your long weekend? So today you SHORT US30 @9.30am after watching DOW30, right??

How do you determine TREND?? On which Time Frame??

And on which Time Frame you enter SHORT??



What is the link between DOW30 & US30?? Plz advise. thanks,

https://www.forexbrokers.com/

I have already answered those questions for you.

Have you opened your NEW FXCM UK demo account as yet ?

There is only ONE TREND - DOWN RISK OFF ... I NEVER TRADE against the trend.
My three month trend on my Forex Trading plan.

You need to go back and read my answers. You really need to find one hour a day. There is NO OFF days maybe one to not post here.

This is called communication. I do not use a Time Frame as I just SHORT. YOU NEED TO STOP TRADING USING JUST THE CHARTS. YOU NEED TO CHANGE YOUR MINDSET. I hope you understand.


Benjamin

yes I opened my NEW demo account. do you need USER ID & PW?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

just PM you, my login & PW.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/18/wh...s-money-maybe/

Why WOLF STREET is Still Free and Not Behind a Paywall Though You Have to Put Up with Ads and I Make (Maybe) Less Money
by Wolf Richter • Feb 18, 2019 • 256 Comments
A no-brainer gets rejected. This is likely my last gig, and I want to do what I love doing. But the advertising-based model is teetering.
Many readers have suggested to me that they would be willing to pay a reasonable annual subscription fee, and that I should put the content or some of the content behind a paywall. The reasons most often given for it fall broadly into two categories, with the first being far more common:

1. “I’m tired of the ads, they’re distracting, and I would rather pay a little every year to get rid of the ads.”
2. “Your stuff is too good to just give away. You should charge for it even if it limits readers to those who are seriously interested.”

I have been thinking about it for years. Ultimately, the way I see it, it comes down to a choice:

1. An equation expressed in dollars where I come out ahead dollar-wise.
2. My larger goals in life.

The equation expressed in dollars goes like this:
Once I put WOLF STREET behind a paywall, no matter how intensely I try to persuade my readers to come along with me and pay for WOLF STREET, I will lose the vast majority of my readers. Only a small percentage would make the hop.
So here is the sample math: If WOLF STREET costs $50 a year, and 10,000 readers (a small percentage of my current reader numbers) make the transition, it would amount to $500,000 a year in revenues. That is quite a bit more than I make off my silly, intrusive, and hated ads. So from that perspective, this would be a no-brainer.
But there are several problems with this equation, if it even works. For one, my readership would be gutted. And these readers are who this site lives for.
Then there is “churn.” I would lose paying subscribers all the time, and just to stay even, I’d have to market and advertise the site to get new readers to replace the once who left. And if I start marketing the dickens out of the site, pay for ads on other sites, hire a marketing team, and so on, I might get this to 20,000 readers. And $1 million in annual revenues. Or maybe not.
But here is the thing: I would have to totally change my business model and what I do for a living.
My larger goals in life.
Right now, my business model is this: Spend much of my time researching, mulling over, and diving deep into data and analyzing what I find, and then writing it all down to where it makes sense even to me, and building charts that even I can understand at one glance. And I spend a lot of time communicating with readers in the comment sections – all of which I really enjoy.
And importantly, WOLF STREET is widely read, and I’m having an impact on the debate.
In short, my business model boils down to this: I spend no time on marketing the site. I focus on creating the best articles I know how to create and hopethat word gets around. Hope is not a strategy, but so far it has worked, thanks to my readers. And advertising revenue came with it.
Under a subscription model, I would constantly be trying to market a newsletter because subscribers unsubscribe or don’t renew, and I’d have to labor to fill those spots, and then I’d have to labor to get more subscribers in order to grow, and I’d have to bombard inboxes with promo emails that are trying to get people to subscribe to my can’t-live-without newsletter hidden behind a paywall.
And this time spent on marketing and selling a newsletter would have to be subtracted from the time I spend researching, analyzing, stewing over, and writing about financial, economic, and business topics, and communicating with my readers.
Look, I’m not the youngest guy anymore.
This is likely my last gig. I want to keep doing it until my brain freezes over. I feel young, and I’m fit and healthy — knock on wood — so I hope I will have many more years doing what I love doing. And what you see in front of you is what I love doing.
However, at this stage in my life, I really don’t want to spend my time doing what I don’t like doing. I have done enough of that in my younger years. I’ve paid my dues, as they say. I want to enjoy the rest of my life: And hawking subscriptions just doesn’t fit into it.
When I started the predecessor site in the summer of 2011, with this ghastly name…
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...-6-smaller.jpg
…I had zero readers. When the first reader somehow found the site, I was immensely excited. I hollered at my baffled wife: “I have a reader!” Then after a while, I had 100 readers a day, then 1,000, wow! I started putting ads on my site. And they started making a few bucks a day – on a good day, enough to buy a nerve-soothing craft brew at a watering hole. And my still baffled wife could never quite figure out why I was working so hard for so little.
It’s called sweat equity. In the summer of 2014, I shed the ghastly name and switched to WOLF STREET, and things have been rocking and rolling since. Now the site is making pretty good money — “beer money,” I’ve come to call it, because I love a good IPA.
So I could probably increase my beer money by a big jump – maybe by multiples – if I switched to a subscription model. I’d have to hire a marketing team. I’d have to pay for advertising on other sites to lure people to a landing page that scares them into subscribing to WOLF STREET so they can find out how they can survive the coming whatever….
No thanks.
Also, some readers’ finances are stretched, and they don’t spend money on subscriptions. With a paywall, I would systematically exclude them. Many other readers just don’t want to spend money on subscriptions. And hiding a site behind a paywall can kill search traffic. These are people who may not know the site but are looking for something to which a WOLF STREET article provides an answer. There is a democratic beauty to advertising-supported publishing: Everyone gets to read it.
But there is a democratic beauty to advertising-supported publishing only if it can function, which is less and less clear.
The advertising supported model is under heavy attack. There just isn’t enough money in it for online publishers. Advertisers (such as Ford or Macy’s) spend a fortune, and publishers get peanuts.
The middlemen siphon most of it out — thick layers of middlemen: The ad agency hired by the advertiser, the “ad tech” companies that have managed to insert themselves layer by layer, Google that runs a big part of the show, other ad exchanges, etc., and then my own ad agencies. And the portion that the middle is siphoning out is getting bigger and bigger.
For many publishers, this just isn’t working out. Though their sites are big and have lots of readers, they aren’t generating enough revenues to fund operations. Layoffs have been ricocheting through the publishers for years, now even pure online publishers. Just so far this year, the layoff reports include:

1. Vice to shed 10% to 15% of its people.
2. Buzzfeed to slash 220 additional people after laying off its entire podcast team last year.
3. McClatchy Company (Miami Herald, Kansas City Star, etc.) offered buyouts to 450 employees.
4. Yahoo, AOL, and The Huffington Post got hit by layoffs, as owner Verizon announced that it is planning to axe 7% of its people at its media companies. This series of layoffs is on top of the buyout program announced last December with which Verizon is trying to shed 10,400 employees by mid-year.
5. Gannett, the giant that owns over 100 news sites, plans to lay off as many as 400 journalists across its properties, after a round of voluntary buyouts late last year.
6. Condé Nast has trimmed staff at various sites this year, including Wired, Glamour, and GQ magazine.
7. The Dallas Morning News cut 43 jobs, half of them in the newsroom.

And it’s just February 18!
So I don’t know for how long the advertising-supported model will continue to provide me with beer money. There may be a day when this model no longer functions for a small publisher like me — when the giants such as Google, Amazon, and Facebook don’t accidentally leave enough crumbs behind for me to feed on.
But that day is not yet in sight. For now, my site is growing, my readership is growing, my beer money is still growing, I’m having a blast doing this, and I intend to keep doing it until my brain freezes over.
Since my podcast team — which consists of me, myself, and I — has not been laid off, here’s my latest podcast: What’s Causing the Subprime Auto Loan Fiasco? Listen to... THE WOLF STREET REPORT

Would you like to be notified via email when WOLF STREET publishes a new article? Sign up here.

THANKS

D291049992


Benjamin

YES that's correct.

2 Forex Trades - 2 Wins for the day - Locked In Profit - $606.00 US dollars.

1 Open Position !!!

Just look at my SCREENSHOT and you will see my 2 Forex Trades. Simple when you know how. 16 Years of WORK to arrive here.


Benjamin

great, bravo. when did you short 100?? just for my curiosity.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

It started out as yet another disappointing day, with Asian markets going nowhere and Europe in the doldrums, dragged lower by the Dax and European auto and bank stocks following poor HSBC earnings and fears about US auto tariffs on European car exports. However, the mood quickly reversed - in very thin volume with the S&P trading about 20% below its 30DMA - after Walmart’s stellar which pushed the stock to its 5th best day in the past 2 years ...
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...y%20change.jpg


... boosted consumer shares, even as Treasuries once again refused to confirm the stock bullishness, sending 10% yields as low as 2.635%, led by the belly of the curve, as the bond market - unlike stocks - remains concerned that the trade truce will end March 1 without a deal, resulting in fresh tariffs.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...sys%202.19.jpg


Stocks got a second, and then a third wind, after first Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester echoed what Lael Brainard said recently, when the former hawk urged an end to the Fed's balance sheet unwind later this year, and then Trump spoke to reported, saying March 1 is not a magical date for the China trade deal, giving traders fresh hopes that trade talks with China could be extended and tariffs won't automatically "spring" on March 1.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...9_15-27-30.jpg


While today's rally was relatively muted, it was sufficient to send the market into overbought territory, with the RSI rising above 70 for the first time since August, making further gains from here that much more questionable, especially if investors continue to sell stocks and equity ETFs as they have for the past 8 weeks.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../SPX%20RSI.jpg


Earlier in the day, China’s currency strengthened against the greenback after a Bloomberg report that the U.S. is pressing for a stable Chinese currency as part of negotiations, which in turn pushed the Aussie dollar to session highs as well.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...ges/USDCNH.jpg


And while Trump's penchant to ignite momentum and trigger algo buying is well-known with the occasional trade-related keyword, one surprise today was gold's spike with the precious metal surging above $1,340, the highest price since last April.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...ver%202.19.jpg


As we first discussed, and as Bloomberg later noted, it's a bit of a head-scratcher as to why gold is gaining today. There's no new meltdown in international politics to drive haven flows, inflation is stable and the dollar, while weaker, isn't moving all that much. Perhaps it really just comes down to the fact that the dollar is weaker. After all, copper is higher and oil is advancing. One obvious catalyst for gold's surge was Kuroda's dovish commentary overnight, in which the BOJ head said the central bank may ease more and buy more assets "if necessary", although other factors cited included "uncertainty surrounding the EU parliament elections, the possibility of Brexit chaos and instability in Venezuela."

Meanwhile, as we noted and as BBG's Andrew Cinko picked up, "even more curious is the side-by-side rally of both gold and equities. Over the last four years, gold and the S&P 500 have had a negative 40-day correlation 72% of the time; the latest reading remains negative at -0.26."

And today's sizeable 1.6% gain in gold is typically not taken well by equities. When the precious metal has risen by that amount or more since the start of 2015, the S&P 500 was lower 64% of the time (18 of 28 instances), with stocks suffering an average loss of 0.4% (average of all 28 instances). Seeing both of them rise is an aberration -- one that probably can't last no matter what the rationale is for gold's strength today.

Whatever the reason, and whether gold is no longer a safe asset, ever since the December lows, both gold and stocks have soared, and as many traders have noted, they can't both be right (unless of course, more QE is imminent).
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...vs%20SPX_0.jpg


Meanwhile, as gold jumped, the dollar fell erasing an earlier loss, ahead of the FOMC minutes release tomorrow and speeches from Fed officials this week.
Not saying anything traders didn't know, Kim Forrest, senior portfolio manager at Fort Pitt Capital, said that "there’s a lot going on out there and I think for the most part investors are looking at China and the trade talks. We’ve been down this road a couple of times before -- not just this year, but last year as well -- and this March deadline is really approaching quickly. That’s really where companies are focused, as we heard today on Walmart, but also investors."

In other news, after getting hammered for the past few weeks, the pound rose to the highest leve in 2 weeks on reports U.K. and European officials are working on new legal text for the contentious Irish border backstop.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...usd%202.19.jpg


Meanwhile, as we continue to look for just who is buying the market, the SMART index - which collapsed into the end of 2018 - has continued it sharp rebound, and has been straight up virtually every day since December 24 when Steven Mnuchin called the PPT, prompting questions about the reversal in market trading patterns, as the overnight selloff is now more than matched with late afternoon buying, suggesting that pensions funds could be quietly accumulating positions in the late afternoon.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...dex%202.19.jpg

COMMENTS FROM BENJAMIN: Now we can see overall what might be going on as of now. It is important to see the bigger picture and all parts of the picture.

Please register to post and let us have a dialogue. Thank you...

http://www.bkassetmanagement.com/

Dollar – Past its Prime?
Posted onFebruary 19, 2019

Dollar – Past its Prime?
Daily FX Market Roundup February 19, 2019
Investors are selling US dollars ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. This move should not be a surprise to our readers as we talked about how the greenback is past its prime The economy is slowing and two of the most important measures for the Fed (retail sales and CPI) retreated further last week. While equity market traders were happy that another government shutdown was averted, the deal in Washington failed to have any meaningful impact on the dollar. No one expects tomorrow’s Fed minutes to help the dollar because when the central bank last met, they made it very clear that there will be no rate hikes anytime soon. They had been talking about being patient for weeks but made it official last month by removing the reference to further gradual rate increases from their monetary policy statement. This is a big shift for a central bank that just raised interest rates in December. According to the FOMC statement, they said that in light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, they would be patient as they determine what future adjustments to interest rates would be appropriate. They also removed the balance of risk assessment from their statement. In In response, EUR/USD soared to 1.15 as USDJPY broke below 109. We can’t expect these same levels to be tested tomorrow but the dollar should fall as the Fed minutes remind us that there is no rate hike in foreseeable future.

The best performing currency today was sterling, which jumped more than 1% against the greenback ahead of tomorrow’s meeting between May and Juncker. The strength of sterling throughout the Brexit crisis has astounded us and today is no different. Although the European Commission continues to say they will not accept a time limit to the backstop, investors remain hopeful that a deal will be reached or an extension will be requested before the March 29th deadline. Juncker expects the talks to be friendly but the EU has been firm on denying changes to the withdrawal agreement and its wishful thinking to assume he will budge tomorrow. The EU’s strategy from day 1 is to run down the clock and force the government to accept the current deal or hold a second referendum. UK data was marginally negatively for the pound, which sold off initially but recovered quickly. Jobless claims increased but less than the previous month and while average weekly earnings held steady instead of rising like economists hoped, excluding bonuses, November wage growth was revised slightly upwards. Fundamentally, the UK economy is weak and Brexit uncertainty persists but technically, GBP/USD is exceptionally strong, especially after today’s move which took the pair above all major moving averages. Sentiment is certainly on the side of sterling bulls but if tomorrow’s talks between May and Juncker end with no concessions from the EU, we could see GBP/USD slide back below 1.30 quickly.

Investors also bought euros but the rally was modest compared to the move in GBP. While the Eurozone has been plagued by softer data including this morning’s German ZEW survey, which fell to its lowest level since December 2014 and the EZ’s current account balance, which was the weakest in 2 years, the expectation component of the German ZEW rebounded for the fourth straight month. As a measure of investor sentiment, these upticks suggest that there could be light at the end of the tunnel. The decline in US 10 year yields is finally outpacing the decline in German yields but the two main reasons for the euro’s gains is a weaker dollar and improved risk appetite. US stocks hit a fresh year to date high today lifting all the high beta currencies. The US Commerce department completed its confidential report on the auto industry over the weekend and no news is good news for now as President Trump hasn’t made any comments on car tariffs.

Last but certainly not least, it is becoming more and more likely that President Trump will extend the March 1st deadline for China trade talks. With the Vice Premier back in Washington, Trump continues to say the talks are going well. He added today that March 1st is “not a magical date, a lot of things can happen.” President Trump is clearly open to extending the deadline and he even said last week that the tariffs could be removed if a deal is done. While we are skeptical until an agreement is signed, sealed and delivered, this language is a move in the right direction. AUD and NZD are up on the back of trade talk optimism and another rise in dairy prices. Unfortunately New Zealand producer prices are due for release this afternoon and the risk is to the downside after the softer than expected CPI report.

http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/1e67745...s=120&d=mm&r=g
Kathy Lien
Managing Director

Just look at my SCREENSHOT !!!


Benjamin

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...ops+to+zero%29

A new eye-opening op-ed in Politico brings fresh realism to the fact that "Europe’s obsession with Russia is unrequited" as "Moscow just isn’t interested in the Continent anymore." Because instead it's now "all about China" from Moscow's vantage point, now all-in on its long stated intent to convince Beijing it's time to form an alliance capable of breaking US global hegemony.


Bruno Maçães, a former Europe minister for Portugal and Eurasian affairs analystfinds based on the real discussions taking place in diplomatic corridors (as opposed to the abstract talking points of mainstream western pundits — predicated on the assumption that Russia perpetually seeks to pull Europe in its direction), that Moscow is no longer pursuing European integration following sanctions and the unraveling of the INF, but senses a new opportunity given Washington's tariffs on Chinese exports. No longer, the ex-European diplomat concludes, does Russia hope to emulate or compete with the Chinese economy, which it realizes it can't do, but instead has a bigger geopolitical alliance in mind.
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b...20and%20Xi.jpg

Presidents Putin and Xi toasting a 2014 energy deal, via ZUMA news agency.

Nowhere has this been on display more that during the annual Valdai Discussion Club (hosted by Russia's top foreign policy experts and officials), where Maçães charts that the idea has been met with less and less resistance over the years, to the point that now the following is clearly on display:
In the past, the possibility of an alliance between the two countries had been hampered by China’s reluctance to jeopardize its relations with the U.S. But now that it has already become a target, perhaps it will grow bolder. Every speaker at Valdai tried to push China in that direction.

Accordingly, relations in Europe is now a distant afterthought for Russian policymakers; instead the question is how to get Beijing to finally understand that Washington is the real enemy, making an alliance against the US necessary.

Maçães says that while the idea was mostly speculation only a couple years ago, Russia wants to bring it to realization, "and soon". Thus a new realism and pivot to southeast Asia has now come to define Moscow's vision for the future:
There was no doubt at Valdai that China knows how to do economic growth, and that Russia does not. Russia’s elite — always so ready to resist any sign of Western hegemony — have no problem admitting China’s economic superiority. Their acceptance reminded me of the way Britain gave way to the United States as the world’s dominant economic power.


Seen from Moscow, there is no resistance left to a new alliance led by China. And now that Washington has imposed tariffs on Chinese exports, Russia hopes China will finally understand that its problem is Washington, not Moscow.

However, the question remains, according to the former Portuguese diplomat: "Can Russia and China really be friends, and for how long?"

Taking the long view, the 20th century-rooted geopolitical rivalry will be overcome by the joint realization that they'll need each other for any chance of altering the American-led global landscape. Says Maçães:
The thing to remember is that both countries are obsessed with overturning the American-led global order. They may have a long history of geopolitical rivalry — one that is sure to return once their goal is achieved and new poles emerge, pitting them against each other.

But they’ll cross that bridge when they get there, maybe in another 20 years or so. For now, Russia and China are essentially on the same side.
The dramatic implications for global order? "It would be an entirely new world, and it’s one that is coming closer to becoming reality," he concludes. Such an alliance "would overturn how we do global politics."

"Imagine an international crisis in which Russia and China suddenly emerge as a single bloc. The impact would be considerable, and to some extent unpredictable: Psychologically, in the mind of the West, it would combine the fear associated with Russia with the apparent invulnerability of China," forecasts Maçães.

Ultimately, this would be enough to curtail Washington-NATO hegemony, as the US "would feel under attack; Europe, intimidated and unsettled." This "entirely new world" would also introduce fractures among European allies, as "The old Continent would also face the threat of a split between Western Europe and the nations of Central and Eastern Europe, which could turn their focus east under the influence of a cash-happy China ready to invest in the region."

Yet China appears nowhere close to Moscow's level of enthusiasm for so drastically altering the landscape: "For the moment, Chinese prudence remains the great obstacle to the new alliance. And Russians know this," Maçães concludes.
Recalling meetings with Sergey Karaganov, a former adviser to Putin, Maçães relates:
I met Karaganov again at a meeting with Chinese officials and think tankers in Beijing a few weeks ago. There, a number of Chinese participants said they doubted Russia’s assertions that the world is in the midst of a new Cold War.

Karaganov dedicated himself to convincing them otherwise, arguing with increasing passion that China is deluding itself if it thinks issues between Beijing and Washington can be conveniently resolved to the benefit of both sides.

Maçães continues, summarizing Karaganov's message: "If Beijing places its bets on peace and cooperation, the great Chinese adventure will come to an end, and China will have to live in the shadow of the U.S. for another generation — perhaps forever, Karaganov said."
The message is further that the clock is ticking on Beijing's waking up to what Russia sees as permanent US global dominance: "Chinese authorities, he argued, have no more than five years to make a decision."

However, China could soon be at breaking point with Washington but would unlikely want to sever itself from European markets and technology. A proposed new "Eastern bloc" would be a powerful geopolitical weapon, no doubt, but the unpredictable high cost will likely prevent Beijing from the taking the leap in Moscow's direction.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...kyhpur3mIXH8A/

 

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Nice Action in Gold!
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...4kmdH6DFeZgEog
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...%3Fversion%3D0


by Mish

3 hrs[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.38)]-edited[/color]


Gold responded to something today (or perhaps nothing), but the action is technically very bullish, especially monthly.

On a daily basis, gold held the $1280 to $1310 level then jumped higher today by $22.70 to $1344 for no apparent reason.

Regardless, the move was long overdue due to increasing deficits and other related issues including absurd proposals to waste $100 trillion on New Green Deals.

Since the latter is years away, at least, I doubt that's the reason.

Regardless, there does not need to be a reason for today. Fundamentally gold is way undervalued. Today it rose.

Gold Weekly Chart
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...qEWYxyeu10Ottg
Gold is approaching resistance at $1377, $1362, $1369 and at $1393 as show in the monthly chart. I do not expect this resistance to hold, but it may take a while to bust through for purely technical reasons.

Gold Monthly Chart
https://imageproxy.themaven.net/http...1EWfMUH3XBIbMQ


There is multi-year resistance, dating to mid-2013, at $1393. Technically speaking, if gold can break through that resistance, there is little further resistance all the way to $1798.

I expect the action to play out that way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

https://kingworldnews.com/michael-ol...e-gold-market/


https://kingworldnews.com/andrew-mag...now-2-16-2019/