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Journey to consistency

  • #1,761
  • Nov 27, 2018 12:31am Nov 27, 2018 12:31am
1 short on
on a postive roll...
  • #1,762
  • Nov 27, 2018 12:57am Nov 27, 2018 12:57am
Quoting Rmg
1 short on
I traded Nikkei in the AM, it did fall earlier before rising up.
1h chart of DAX looked similar to Nikkei.
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  • #1,763
  • Edited 8:14pm Nov 27, 2018 7:54pm | Edited 8:14pm
I think I'll make this transition official DAX to Nikkei.

Nikkei fits this approach way better than DAX does and I think this approach also fits me way better than any other trend trading approach I have tried and it could be the only thing that I am capable of doing and it probably is I'm not going to try to reach for the stars anymore. I'm not capable of being a master trader I can't make sense of every move. It is complicated and extremely challenging I may not have gave it enough time. But it's not working for me.

Back to Nikkei the upside is I can open a single position and call it a day in 30min to max 2 hours average gain is in between 30-100pips (1R:1R to 1R:3R) it really depends and it doesn't take as long as DAX to reach my target and I can finish work early before lunch and have the rest of the day "to do something else" or to "rest". The only downside as I see it is risk, the spread is 8pips and it goes up to 12pips! after 10AM Tokyo time... today I accidentally traded it after the spread went up to 12 and I experimented with another method... the last loss unnecessary and could have been avoided if I were disciplined enough and well aware.

As for DAX I'm still tempted with as far as risk is concerned I can keep it to 15pips for SL (1R:2R) per position as the spread is 1.8 but I'd need to go for two positions per day and it'll take longer for me to reach my target. It doesn't help sometimes as it can range for an hours or so before finding some direction with strong momentum which doesn't suit my method. And London open is 4PM my time I don't feel my best around late noon I'm more of a morning person than anything else so the more it lingers on without absolute direction and strong momentum the more likely I'm going to make mistakes.

I'm trying to justify my transition.
But I'm not so sure.
But I feel like I'm going to stick with Nikkei.

At the end of the day its all about the pips if I can make them or keep them.
I'll keep on trading Nikkei and this approach for Dec on my live as I have been the past two days I suppose I'll make it official then.
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  • #1,764
  • Dec 2, 2018 4:23pm Dec 2, 2018 4:23pm
Just when you think you might be getting good at reading PA this happens....

But I traded it nevertheless on demo

PS: friday was a positive day as well now looking back I got lucky Nikkei has been good to me but its been teaching me lots of stuff, I was beaten up with DAX so I have some fear going back to DAX but chart is a chart I am well aware of that if I can trade Nikkei I should be able to trade DAX but I can't deny that I do function well in the early morning than in late afternoons, especially after 20h fast my mind is as sharp as it can be and I'm not complaining about that. I'll take the day off.... or should I go for DAX I don't know I don't want to end up gambling and giving away my hard earned 90pips.
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  • #1,765
  • Dec 4, 2018 12:01am Dec 4, 2018 12:01am
Quoting Piquant
Just when you think you might be getting good at reading PA this happens.... But I traded it nevertheless on demo PS: friday was a positive day as well now looking back I got lucky Nikkei has been good to me but its been teaching me lots of stuff, I was beaten up with DAX so I have some fear going back to DAX but chart is a chart I am well aware of that if I can trade Nikkei I should be able to trade DAX but I can't deny that I do function well in the early morning than in late afternoons, especially after 20h fast my mind is as sharp...
It takes a while to fully understand how the chosen instrument move. I guess You will have to give yourself enough screen time for nikkei., It took me atleast a month from dax to nq.
on a postive roll...
  • #1,766
  • Dec 4, 2018 2:26am Dec 4, 2018 2:26am
Quoting Rmg
{quote} It takes a while to fully understand how the chosen instrument move. I guess You will have to give yourself enough screen time for nikkei., It took me atleast a month from dax to nq.
Yeah I'm not fully bought into this winning streak
I just like the fact that it falls or rises quickly I like it the same way you prefer NQ I can call it a day in two hours early in the AM unlike DAX.
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  • #1,767
  • Dec 4, 2018 4:18pm Dec 4, 2018 4:18pm
what a run that was, under 10mins over 100pips.

Nikkei is wild especially around Tokyo and Asian open but if you can cut an edge out of it, I can see how rewarding it can be.....

incidentally I'm back to peak and trough after spending some time on Philip Neils 5m system I think overall I got a pretty good idea on how MAs play a certain role along with PA I've also realized while his slope idea can be profitable you can't assume that its going to be a smooth ride without getting to know the rhythm of price movement, I keep running in circles keep coming back to the basics.

whether or not you're an indicator trader you must know the underlying structure what makes it move to a certain direction..... for so long I was babbling on and on about peak and trough, fractals but yesterday something clicked and I think it was partly to do with my two week experiment with Philip Neils 5m system I started paying close attention to PA above or below fast MAs that revelation was months (maybe a year) in the making it didn't magically click in one day of course.... but I think I have discovered the fundamental "secret" LOL to price movement its not so much of a secret because its all there for everyone of us to see and act on it but we blatantly ignore every signal it sends.

I got this.

and I mean 1m , I haven't yet combined higher TFs.... but I figured as long as I can follow 1m to the right direction and act on corresponding signals I should be good and it should show up on my statement, the thing with Nikkei is since its range is much wider than DAX following exclusively 1m trend can be very profitable and can be done for the day in 1h max or for today 30min depending on your target of course I have decided to keep it to two trades max per session/day.
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  • #1,768
  • Dec 5, 2018 4:23pm Dec 5, 2018 4:23pm
Overall a positive day albeit very small gain but I'm not running after numbers for now I want consistency - to reach consistency I need to understand the underlying forces whether I like it or not - it can't be done otherwise. Again it fell over 100pips in just a little over 15min (that's not the point LOL but I'm going to say it anyways because it means I can finish the day under 30mins!)

First entry was stupid, plain and simple I went long when there was no indication of price heading higher to be honest I wasn't really sure of what I saw below even after I had gone long I had lot of doubt) I was following price prior Tokyo open and it was falling touch base and the final signal I call it falling N but I'm still in the learning phase I haven't mastered all of this so I expected mistakes hence why I've decided to allow myself for two entry per day/session it really is all you need with Nikkei for 33-100pips.

As for the last entry it was on point ! perfect entry in my opinion and I was fairly confident that this was the one to the right direction and it was ! however my exit was ... meh, it went down 100pips and I only managed 17.5pips that was partly to do with "fear" of being wrong again and partly "not knowing enough"....

which brings me back to "I still haven't mastered all of this yet" yes I can "the signs" now
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  • #1,769
  • Edited 5:25pm Dec 6, 2018 5:04pm | Edited 5:25pm
Again overall + day, for today both positions were to the right direction initial run up totaled somewhere around 100p that might have been a signal for some but for me I didn't see my rising N so I waited for a good 30min without opening any trade which was unusual for me as I tend to or used to open up trades compulsively just for a quick gain to make up for big losses , like I said both of my trades were to the right direction timings were on point for both BUT I bailed out of my first trade because it didn't look perfect but as the confirmation came through I entered for another short.

I still clearly lack confidence which I'm not overly surprised I've been on a losing streak/gambling phase for 4 years now maybe even 4.6 years! so it'll take sometime for me to just open up a trade set my SL and let it work out on its own without much involvement under desired conditions I mean I should get involved if necessary. For now I've just been too involved out of fear. And for the fundamental secret I've been discovering new elements every single day and I've also been perfecting, so that also adds up to that uncertainty and fear which again will take time to resolve.

And lastly, exit.... this short came down about 70pips.

Conclusion, I'm getting better at recognizing those signs which lets me know if I should buy/sell or hold, my entry has also been very good considering I've only seen improvement on my bottomline since the end of Nov'18 now what I need to improve on is get better at recognizing those signs (I still lack) that way I should be confident enough in myself to let trades run for at least for 50pips.

Overall I feel good for the first time in 4.6years, I feel like I'm finally onto something that could last well because I'm learning to see the underlying force and not cluttering up my chart with indicators, I still do have MA's but these days I see the price not the MAs they sure do act as a guidance or an extra confirmation but I don't pay as much attention to MAs as I used to. I was on the verge of giving up and it was too damn hard and lonely. But these moments keep me going... because after each setback I discover something new about price movement after each setback I see price clearer in its true form and I get better and better at understanding the signs it uses to communicate. I'm reminded of my old self trying to learn English... I don't think I've tried this hard since then. I almost forgot that It takes "a long, a long" time and "a lot of effort, perseverance and patience" to learn something, thank you for reminding that and I'm humbled.

In the back of my mind I just wish I had prepared myself for this long lonely and frustrating battle, but then again I wasn't prepared when I first started learning english I dived all in, what kept me going was those moments where i could understand better after again each setback and my passion without passion I wouldn't have learned a thing and I would have given up long long time ago same goes for trading, passion fueled me all along through this frustrating journey.

I need a rest now.
Too tired after nonstop 4.6years of battle with myself and with price its about time I should flow along without forcing effortlessly.
I'm going to have the rest of the day off.
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  • #1,770
  • Dec 14, 2018 1:25am Dec 14, 2018 1:25am
I'm done with Nikkei and back to DAX for good, and this is final. 5m DAX.

Thus far for DEC I've had 4 losing days and 6 days winning days, and last 4 days of NOV on Nikkei were consecutive winning days I was so used to losing that I didn't really care about the green pips but I knew something had changed whatever I was doing I wasn't losing left and right as I have been like I said the last 4.6years when I had wrote down my last entry I still wasn't sure exactly what it was that was seeing, because lets be honest here I still haven't mastered all of this I don't think I ever will but I'll keep on trying.

There's still a lot that I don't understand and can't see every time open up a chart although I've come so far and finally progress is showing up on my bottom line the numbers are there for proof that it may be starting to click finally.

And at the same time I'm starting to realize this is never a single moment where everything just clicks all of a sudden (there's no magic here I'm sorry to disappoint my old self) but a gradual process where you keep on peeling layer upon layer of that never ending puzzle and all of a sudden you realize you're starting to see something, some kind of reason or meaning to it.

I probably will never understand it as best as someone who's truly mastered his or her craft but I'll keep on giving my best as I have been , but I'm pretty damn confident the greens are finally here to stay whether or not I have mastered this...

PS: I didn't open a single trade today on DAX where I went against the trend I kept with the selling frenzy but my exits were irrational that I'm not too worried about for now.
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  • #1,771
  • Dec 14, 2018 2:40am Dec 14, 2018 2:40am
Quoting Piquant
I'm done with Nikkei and back to DAX for good, and this is final. 5m DAX. Thus far for DEC I've had 4 losing days and 6 days winning days, and last 4 days of NOV on Nikkei were consecutive winning days I was so used to losing that I didn't really care about the green pips but I knew something had changed whatever I was doing I wasn't losing left and right as I have been like I said the last 4.6years when I had wrote down my last entry I still wasn't sure exactly what it was that was seeing, because lets be honest here I still haven't mastered all...
Your constant search for your improvement is remarkable.
This will support you in your personal life too.
Keep on track.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #1,772
  • Dec 16, 2018 5:22pm Dec 16, 2018 5:22pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Your constant search for your improvement is remarkable. This will support you in your personal life too. Keep on track.
Thanks Brixen!
I appreciate that
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  • #1,773
  • Dec 17, 2018 12:19pm Dec 17, 2018 12:19pm
Quoting Brixen
... PS: I didn't open a single trade today on DAX where I went against the trend I kept with the selling frenzy but my exits were irrational that I'm not too worried about for now.
Some of the best trades are the ones you do not take.
  • #1,774
  • Dec 20, 2018 6:57pm Dec 20, 2018 6:57pm
It's funny how you think you really understood something but rediscover more everything time to go back and revisit the same material - Pain of learning something new. Learning never ends.

" After exhaustive researches and investigations of the known sciences I discovered that the law of vibration enabled me to accurately determine the exact points at which stocks or commodities should rise and fall within a given time.

The working out of this law determines the cause and predicts the effect long before the street is aware of either. Most speculators can testify to the fact that it is looking at the effect and ignoring the cause that has produced their losses.

It is impossible here to give an adequate idea of the law of vibrations as I apply it to the markets. However the layman maybe able to grasp some of the principles when I state that law of vibration is the fundamental law upon which wireless telegraphy wireless telephone and photographs are based, without existence of this law the above inventions would have been impossible.

Every effect must have adequate cause. If we wish to avert failure in speculation we must deal with cases. There is nothing in the universe but mathematical points of force.

Vibration is fundamental nothing is exempt from this law. It is universal therefore applicable to every class of phenomena on the globe " Gann's Ticker Inverview
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  • #1,775
  • Dec 20, 2018 7:08pm Dec 20, 2018 7:08pm
Vibration, periodic back-and-forth motion of the particles of an elastic body or medium, commonly resulting when almost any physical system is displaced from its equilibrium condition and allowed to respond to the forces that tend to restore equilibrium.

690 breakout the cause, Pb back to equilibrium the effect. Gann may have gone too far in trying to explain movements as simple as support and resistance I do agree with that partly however I still do feel like after 4.6 years of painful frustration there're more to it than what meets the eye or simple support breaks becomes resistance there're more layers peak and trough is what jumps out, it builds up in peak and trough and the exact timing is determined by the level and peak and trough. To do this kind of analysis I must look at higher TF at least 30m or 1h concentrating solely on 1m or 5m is disastrous and usually brings out the gambling tendencies.
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  • #1,776
  • Dec 20, 2018 8:03pm Dec 20, 2018 8:03pm
retest back to 659 is in the cards its a daily S a big level if it opens up with a gap on 30min 558 S broke it is currently in the progress of retest minor S at 530 typical look of retest if it breaks this might also get a retest opening 30min candle will give me more insight as to what might happen. if 558 breaks and holds again that can produce an up move to 659 temporary or not I don't care, I trade what it wants to do.

lots of possibilities for today I think as for yesterday the down move from 690 was kind of obvious from the get go even before the Frankfurt open but for today I'll have to see what it does as Frankfurt opens, if there's going to be gap or not and how it moves.
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  • #1,777
  • Dec 20, 2018 11:22pm Dec 20, 2018 11:22pm
I see what you're trying to do "now" gone out of that short too early.
My exits are skewed because I just don't see everything.!

but let's wait and see, because you never really know what's going to happen until it shows you heads up and you "really" see it.
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  • #1,778
  • Dec 20, 2018 11:48pm Dec 20, 2018 11:48pm
Looks like I missed 590 S break out level finding temporary support on 567 I think this is what its going for better wait for a final cue, 5m looks bearish as well no indication of price going up in a proper high peak and trough for now.
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  • #1,779
  • Dec 20, 2018 11:54pm Dec 20, 2018 11:54pm
I see 573 as well, that's the real support once it breaks we go down to 530.
Again I don't see proper high peak and high trough which would indicate upward move on 5m

It is about finding the right timing to go short (if I did see it right)

573 might get a retest during London.
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  • #1,780
  • Dec 21, 2018 12:07am Dec 21, 2018 12:07am
target hit!

minor hiccup -5.3pips

+41total not too bad.
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