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  • #6,881
  • Dec 2, 2018 7:26am Dec 2, 2018 7:26am
Quoting MiyagiFX
So here is my first analysis: USDJPY Weekly: Trend is up - Supply being removed, demand being respected Momentum is up We are high in the curve and are testing a non-fresh supply. We have to wait for confirmation to take a short for numerous reasons: Trade will be against curve TF trend and/or momentum We are testing a non-fresh supply Ideally I would have liked to have seen a higher penetration of the supply before a confirmation short is taken {image} Daily: Ranging between zones We have hit non-fresh supply, no longs allowed, need confirmation...
Just an update on my analysis for USDJPY:

I have decided to remove my sell order for this pair as we are retesting the non-fresh weekly supply for the 5th time. I want to see that sellers are stronger than buyers before I take a short trade, and being the 5th retest, I would like to see this on the weekly as opposed to my entry TF (4h), especially when the 4th retest didnt have a large move away. On my weekly chart below I have marked out a buy area (grey) that is of interest for me. Before I consider a looking for sells, I would like to see this area removed and hopefully the momentum line at the same time. This then would indicate to me that the sellers are taking control. Also, a zone's strength diminishes with every retest and seeing that this is the 5th time back to this zone, it may be removed. Therefore with all this in mind, I believe it is a low probability trade to take at this present time when only the 4h momentum line has been broken.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,882
  • Dec 2, 2018 11:48am Dec 2, 2018 11:48am
Hello people, I have highlighted an interesting zone, what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,883
  • Dec 2, 2018 2:56pm Dec 2, 2018 2:56pm
Quoting ykn4f
Hello people, I have highlighted an interesting zone, what do you think? {image}
Hi ykn4f,

What are you asking about the zone? What context is your question......is it a zone or not, if it is, is it a zone to be buying/selling at, is a S&F zone or confirmation, what should you do if price gets back to it, etc? In essence what I am asking is what do you mean when you are asking 'what do you think?'

What are your thoughts on the zone? why have you drawn it? What is the reasoning for drawing the zone, etc. Without these being answered or a pretext of what you think about the zone, your question is a hard one to answer

Cheers
  • #6,884
  • Dec 2, 2018 4:41pm Dec 2, 2018 4:41pm
Quoting newbie2014
First of all i want to Thanks AKt for starting this THREAD . Here are some trades i have taken last week {image} {image} {image}
Hello newbie, below is a correction on your h4 EURGBP chart trendline or momentum line. And also in my opinion it would be better if you stop using SUPDEM indicator
to draw levels and focus on getting good drawing SUPDEM levels manually..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP H4 3RD DEC 2018 CORRECTION.png Size: 51 KB


Cheers.
  • #6,885
  • Dec 3, 2018 4:07am Dec 3, 2018 4:07am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Hi ykn4f, What are you asking about the zone? What context is your question......is it a zone or not, if it is, is it a zone to be buying/selling at, is a S&F zone or confirmation, what should you do if price gets back to it, etc? In essence what I am asking is what do you mean when you are asking 'what do you think?' What are your thoughts on the zone? why have you drawn it? What is the reasoning for drawing the zone, etc. Without these being answered or a pretext of what you think about the zone, your question is a hard one to answer Cheers...
Hello Miyagi, by interesting I meant that 4h and 1h zones got broken and on 15m we had LOL and from lower one level we had strong move, but this zone wasn't in 4h/1h level
  • #6,886
  • Dec 3, 2018 4:44am Dec 3, 2018 4:44am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} Hello Miyagi, by interesting I meant that 4h and 1h zones got broken and on 15m we had LOL and from lower one level we had strong move, but this zone wasn't in 4h/1h level
You will always find LTF zones that aren’t in HTF zones, that is the fractility of TFs. Will they be directly above and bellow HTF zones...sometimes but not always.

It is interesting to see but how do you trade them that is the question? Zones can break by a wick and still price reacts to them as though the haven’t broken, this could be down to a multitude of reasons:

  1. Price hit lower TF zone
  2. Stop hunt
  3. zone wasn’t drawn correct
  4. etc

the only only thing we can do is have rules of how we do our MTF analysis and take setups. What is your higher TF telling you...are probabilities in favour of buys or sells. Lower TF zones will be removed by higher TF zones eventually as HT zones are stronger. Either you’re trading the lower TF zones because it is inline with your MTF analysis or you are using them for profit targets.

so in answer to your question, it is and interesting thing to see but does it happen enough that you need to have a rule for when it happens and how would that fit into your MTF analysis....

  • #6,887
  • Dec 3, 2018 6:01am Dec 3, 2018 6:01am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} You will always find LTF zones that aren’t in HTF zones, that is the fractility of TFs. Will they be directly above and bellow HTF zones...sometimes but not always. It is interesting to see but how do you trade them that is the question? Zones can break by a wick and still price reacts to them as though the haven’t broken, this could be down to a multitude of reasons: Price hit lower TF zone Stop hunt zone wasn’t drawn correct etc the only only thing we can do is have rules of how we do our MTF analysis and take setups. What is your higher...
Yes, I didn't trade higher time frames zones when I see structure like this on low tfs
  • #6,888
  • Dec 3, 2018 11:37am Dec 3, 2018 11:37am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Ahhh OK, where is your TP or are you already out of the position?
HI,MiyagiFX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,889
  • Dec 3, 2018 11:07pm Dec 3, 2018 11:07pm
Hello AKT & everyone, my top down analysis on NZDUSD..M-WK-D1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD WEEKLY 4TH DEC 2018.png Size: 45 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,890
  • Dec 4, 2018 4:23am Dec 4, 2018 4:23am
Hi all,

This is my first post here. I am currently working my way through the thread again (on page 70 at the moment).

Big thank you to everyone, especially to AKT of course, for contributing to this amazing thread!

I started reading the thread and trading S/D a few years ago, but I thought that change of the time frames was a bit too messy at the time, and I couldn't really figure it out. While trading other system more of less successfully, I always saw these patterns play out again and again and again. I could not unlearn what I'd learnt here. So then I realized the S/D was the way to go, hence I'm going back over the content and the videos again.

Just to simplify the process for me, I have chosen to trade the major pairs on the 1h chart as curve and 15 min as my entry time frame. I think that I'm a bit restless, so it suits me quite nice to have several trades per day. But I work full time, so I miss a few trades each day.

Here's a trade that I'm in at the moment in the AUD/USD:

60 min: Momentum line (perhaps not perfect) broken and supply created
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TB_AU_60.JPG Size: 85 KB


15 min: Entry time frame supply nested within curve supply
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TB_AU_15.JPG Size: 119 KB


5 min: Like I said, I'm a bit restless, so when the momentum line broke on the 5 min chart and created nice little supply, it screamed for me to take it - so I did!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TB_AU_5.JPG Size: 97 KB


Let's see how it plays out! Comments and advise are of course welcome.

All the best,

T
  • #6,891
  • Dec 4, 2018 7:25am Dec 4, 2018 7:25am
Quoting Diddyy
Hello AKT & everyone, my top down analysis on NZDUSD..M-WK-D1{image}{image}{image}
Hello Diddyy, what is your decision matrix?
  • #6,892
  • Dec 4, 2018 7:59am Dec 4, 2018 7:59am
Quoting tob107
Hi all, This is my first post here. I am currently working my way through the thread again (on page 70 at the moment). Big thank you to everyone, especially to AKT of course, for contributing to this amazing thread! I started reading the thread and trading S/D a few years ago, but I thought that change of the time frames was a bit too messy at the time, and I couldn't really figure it out. While trading other system more of less successfully, I always saw these patterns play out again and again and again. I could not unlearn what I'd learnt here....
Hi tob107,

Welcome me to the thread, my first post was only a few days ago so I’m new to this as well.

Just wanted to say congrats on the trade. As you can see on your curve TF (1h), it was the second retest of the zone, therefore we should expect a deeper penetration into the zone on the 2nd retest, and this is what we saw happen. Because it is the second retest we can’t take a set and forget trade, but only a confirmation if the opportunity presents itself, which it did. You spotted it on the 5min chart but you didn’t have to go lower to see it. I’ve attached your 15min chart showing the momentum TL broken and the supply created that you shorted a 5min supply within it. By taking the 5min supply zone rather than the 15min zone, I assume you doubled you R/R ratio which is great!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: F598D5AC-5329-4A46-9600-426E6FE7213D.jpeg Size: 302 KB


The only thing that concerns me is where your TP would be as your range is small on your curve TF with LOL demand zones, see image below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 49DF0D8C-B5D1-407F-AA67-CF49E4F45B29.jpeg Size: 132 KB
  • #6,893
  • Dec 4, 2018 8:30am Dec 4, 2018 8:30am
Quoting MiyagiFX
{quote} Hi tob107, Welcome me to the thread, my first post was only a few days ago so I’m new to this as well. Just wanted to say congrats on the trade. As you can see on your curve TF (1h), it was the second retest of the zone, therefore we should expect a deeper penetration into the zone on the 2nd retest, and this is what we saw happen. Because it is the second retest we can’t take a set and forget trade, but only a confirmation if the opportunity presents itself, which it did. You spotted it on the 5min chart but you didn’t have to go lower...
Hi MiyagiFX,

Welcome to the both of us - nice to meet you!

I usually try to take confirmation trades, but yes, especially here when it was the second hit it was extra important.

Thank you and thanks for pointing it out, I didn't see it on the 15 min chart.

Regarding the profit taking, I was aiming a bit lower, since it was where I located the demand - but that might be wrong. I exited my short on the yellow level and then I found a little nested level in there to go long at. It's been tested, but my 5 min short entry turned out as a 10R winner (+ 15 min entry of 5R), so I'll take the chance with this one (TP at about 0.7370).

60 min: Target:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TB_AU_60_2.JPG Size: 69 KB


15 min: Long entry on a tested level nested in the 60 min demand:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TB_AU_15_2.JPG Size: 116 KB


Probably my best day of trading in a long time today.

All the best,

T
  • #6,894
  • Dec 4, 2018 8:38am Dec 4, 2018 8:38am
Quoting tob107
Hi all, This is my first post here. I am currently working my way through the thread again (on page 70 at the moment). Big thank you to everyone, especially to AKT of course, for contributing to this amazing thread! I started reading the thread and trading S/D a few years ago, but I thought that change of the time frames was a bit too messy at the time, and I couldn't really figure it out. While trading other system more of less successfully, I always saw these patterns play out again and again and again. I could not unlearn what I'd learnt here....
Hello top107, i have a question about your timeframes - if your highest tf 60m its curve, then 15m is for trend, 5m for entery and 1m for conformation, am i wrong?

And about your entery on 5m, level that was created by breaking momentum line didn't take out any demand to the left, so i wouldn`t take this trade

Picture below is how i see your potencial entery on 5 min
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tvc_13782e8ad9ed5cd3b95dce8042a97645.png Size: 63 KB
  • #6,895
  • Dec 4, 2018 8:48am Dec 4, 2018 8:48am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} Hello top107, i have a question about your timeframes - if your highest tf 60m its curve, then 15m is for trend, 5m for entery and 1m for conformation, am i wrong? And about your entery on 5m, level that was created by breaking momentum line didn't take out any demand to the left, so i wouldn`t take this trade Picture below is how i see your potencial entery on 5 min {image}
Hi ykn4f,

I normally just use the 60 min for curve and the 15 min for entry. And when I am bored, I check the 5 min chart for entry.

On your chart, my supply zone was in the top (the zone that broke the momentum line). So my entry was on the peak where you drew the zone.

Just a disclaimer with regards to my previous post - I had a bunch of losses today too. But I've learned that we only need a few big winners to outset the losers, so risk mgmt is priority.

All the best,

T
  • #6,896
  • Dec 4, 2018 9:49am Dec 4, 2018 9:49am
Quoting tob107
{quote} Hi ykn4f, I normally just use the 60 min for curve and the 15 min for entry. And when I am bored, I check the 5 min chart for entry. On your chart, my supply zone was in the top (the zone that broke the momentum line). So my entry was on the peak where you drew the zone. Just a disclaimer with regards to my previous post - I had a bunch of losses today too. But I've learned that we only need a few big winners to outset the losers, so risk mgmt is priority. All the best, T
Hi again, I think you misunderstand me
For confirmation trades we need evidence of selling comes to the market, on your chart you have only break of momentum line and don't have any demand taking out, that's what i mean

On my picture I shoved you evidence of selling by yellow circle - demand that was taking out by lows to the right
  • #6,897
  • Dec 4, 2018 11:07am Dec 4, 2018 11:07am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} Hi again, I think you misunderstand me For confirmation trades we need evidence of selling comes to the market, on your chart you have only break of momentum line and don't have any demand taking out, that's what i mean On my picture I shoved you evidence of selling by yellow circle - demand that was taking out by lows to the right
Hi ykn4f,

I bet you are right on the confirmation there. To me, a broken momentum line is enough as confirmation. Of course, it's a bonus if an opposing zone is taken out.

All the best,

T
  • #6,898
  • Dec 4, 2018 8:51pm Dec 4, 2018 8:51pm
Hello everyone. Supply and demand levels in play

best wishes

Inserted Video
Be careful what you think because your thoughts run your life..Solomon
  • #6,899
  • Dec 5, 2018 2:52am Dec 5, 2018 2:52am
Quoting ykn4f
{quote} Hi again, I think you misunderstand me For confirmation trades we need evidence of selling comes to the market, on your chart you have only break of momentum line and don't have any demand taking out, that's what i mean On my picture I shoved you evidence of selling by yellow circle - demand that was taking out by lows to the right
Hi ykn4f,

Just by breaking the momentum TL shows that sellers are taking control, it is not necessary for demand to be taken out. You can use the rule of demand being taken out as well as momentum TL to filter out opportunities you feel aren’t higher probability to you. Like tob107 says..it’s a bonus.
  • #6,900
  • Dec 5, 2018 6:27am Dec 5, 2018 6:27am
AUD/CHF
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCHFD.png Size: 56 KB
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