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Shorting the cable (Is London Bridge Falling Down?)

Quoting TheRumpledOne
Just don't be short at 5PM EST.

If you do, then you are just giving your money away!

why do you say that?
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
Cable might drop to 8650 or possibly as low as 8600, but its more likely going to go upwards of 8900 in the short term. Look at the patterns since August. IF it breaks 8600 then it would be a great idea to short, and maybe some of you could be a pinch ahead on a big move, but that is much less likely than a return to 8900-9150 range. Especially considering US economic data lately (I know the NFP was lower but they actually increased the previous months by a lot and unemployment is really really low, interest rates not moving, energy lower, etc) I don't think that right now would be a good time to be short on GBPUSD.

I know the last upside was weaker than the total range (which could be a sign of a downtrend) but I am not going to be convinced until it breaks that very heavy support at about 8600.
I still like to use the data form the commercial trader for the gbp....seems to me they are extremely short the euro and the gbp....and THEY are the big money.....so I'll follow their direction, which in my humble opinion is down.


mackeymax
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
Quoting MACKEYMAX
I still like to use the data form the commercial trader for the gbp....seems to me they are extremely short the euro and the gbp....and THEY are the big money.....so I'll follow their direction, which in my humble opinion is down.


mackeymax
But how do you know whose money you are following and where the big players are really putting their money?
I'm really happy to hear everyone is going long. I've been short since Friday... and I expect it to hit 1.8650 zone... then I'm bailing out.
Mr. Trend
Quoting Americantek
But how do you know whose money you are following and where the big players are really putting their money?
If I knew exactly "whose" money I were following I definetly would'nt be posting on this board.....maybe on an island somewhere...but when the NFP news came out on friday, I felt the comm. traders were flexing their muscles a bit....as to where they are putting the money, they have already staked their position and just wait for dumb money (ie, small accts) to bid it up again.

Sidenote: I use this report along with other indicators when I trade...I feel you must have a confluence of indicators, not just only one by itself.

Again, thanks for the reply...just looking to learn as I go......
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
Quoting MACKEYMAX
If I knew exactly "whose" money I were following I definetly would'nt be posting on this board.....maybe on an island somewhere...but when the NFP news came out on friday, I felt the comm. traders were flexing their muscles a bit....as to where they are putting the money, they have already staked their position and just wait for dumb money (ie, small accts) to bid it up again.

Sidenote: I use this report along with other indicators when I trade...I feel you must have a confluence of indicators, not just only one by itself.

Again, thanks for the reply...just looking to learn as I go......
I just don't understand how you figure you are going for a ride with commercial traders by being short on GBPUSD right now. I'm not trying to be rude or anything but unless you have some kind of insider knowledge then it would seem unlikely to have any clue as to what institutional traders are doing. Not all small accounts are "dumb money". Are you demoing or do you have a real account?
Quoting Americantek
I just don't understand how you figure you are going for a ride with commercial traders by being short on GBPUSD right now. I'm not trying to be rude or anything but unless you have some kind of insider knowledge then it would seem unlikely to have any clue as to what institutional traders are doing. Not all small accounts are "dumb money". Are you demoing or do you have a real account?
Been trading for only 5yrs with the last being forex....the cot reports are what I refer to when i mention the big guys, and when i say dumb money i mean small accts....do not take offense, i myself am considered "dumb" $...but i am not dumb enough to go against the overall sentiment of the market....
He who hesitates is hesitant....which always leads to bad entries.
My whole take on this thing is that next week, it will either go up, go down, or stay about the same...
"The time to act is when others show signs of tire." --W.D. Gann
As a side note did you guys know that the London Bridge actually is in Lake Havasu City, Arizona? (Its true, look it up) Its the real london bridge too, they had it shipped over in pieces and reassembled it. You can drive over it with your car and everything, so I think that if the London Bridge were to fall down it might have the reverse effect on GBPUSD than everyone would assumehttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...cons/icon6.gif
shush. big boys playing double no touch scouping up your money on range trading.
pick your battles and be patient.
Quoting Americantek
I just don't understand how you figure you are going for a ride with commercial traders by being short on GBPUSD right now. I'm not trying to be rude or anything but unless you have some kind of insider knowledge then it would seem unlikely to have any clue as to what institutional traders are doing. Not all small accounts are "dumb money". Are you demoing or do you have a real account?
THE MAN
Yeah but the poor b......s thought they were getting Tower Bridge, often mistaken for London Bridge because it is more pisturesque!!
Anybody still predicting that the cable will drop below the roughly 8625 support? Whose short? There is a fair amount of USD news this week, should be pretty choppy
Quoting Americantek
Anybody still predicting that the cable will drop below the roughly 8625 support? Whose short? There is a fair amount of USD news this week, should be pretty choppy
Yes, it can fall 1.8500-1.8600.
Quoting fx54xHRB
Yes, it can fall 1.8500-1.8600.
Well sure, it CAN fall anywhere it wants, 6 months ago it was at 7300. I'm wondering who is short right now and why, everyone on this thread (but me) keeps saying things like that, but I don't understand how you are coming up with that analysis. My question why are you short
Quoting Americantek
Well sure, it CAN fall anywhere it wants, 6 months ago it was at 7300. I'm wondering who is short right now and why, everyone on this thread (but me) keeps saying things like that, but I don't understand how you are coming up with that analysis. My question why are you short
There is relatively many reasons : Korea nuke test, Interest rates , signs of rebound in US economic growth, low inflation in UK...
I've been long since about 1.8850 (should have taken a little sooner) and am holding until 1.8740 near term, 1.8795 will be next big resistance. Then hopefully it will go up to around 1.9000 again in a couple weeks.
Quoting ssteiner87
I've been long since about 1.8850 (should have taken a little sooner) and am holding until 1.8740 near term, 1.8795 will be next big resistance. Then hopefully it will go up to around 1.9000 again in a couple weeks.
maybe you would say 1.8650 ?
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  • Last Post: Oct 10, 2006 4:37am Oct 10, 2006 4:37am
Quoting yhboey
g/u will down to 1.85-1.86 next week.
Target reached.
ThinkForex
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