Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 1617 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #32,321
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:12am Aug 15, 2018 5:12am
Meanwhile missed a good trade on the Dax.

Damn, i should be like this guy...

Inserted Video
  • #32,322
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:13am Aug 15, 2018 5:13am
Quoting MrGreen95
Watching UC: it is under a very interesting zone. I feel like it will be an 123 and then back to the DPV Core Retail Sales at 14:30. Forecast is slightly negative, it could create some problem
Been watching it too. On the H4 it's looking like a Dead Cat Bounce and price isn't closing over the 50.
  • #32,323
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:16am Aug 15, 2018 5:16am
Quoting claudia1
These two really do work well together for me. Confirm entries so often. + 195 in 24 hours on DE30 which is ridiculous. {image} {image}
Can't post a chart just now but Claudia, if you haven't seen it already, UJ in H1. Just your kind of thing.
  • #32,324
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:25am Aug 15, 2018 5:25am
Quoting MrGreen95
Meanwhile missed a good trade on the Dax. Damn, i should be like this guy... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr7pyggTmmY
If it's any consolation, I just missed out on a 130 to 160 pip set-up because of Windows Update Hell.

The computer has never been so close to being thrown out the window.
  • #32,325
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:27am Aug 15, 2018 5:27am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} If it's any consolation, I just missed out on a 130 to 160 pip set-up because of Windows Update Hell. The computer has never been so close to being thrown out the window.
Blame Billy.
  • #32,326
  • Aug 15, 2018 5:52am Aug 15, 2018 5:52am
Back on...

Not run as a Dead Zone play but faded the move up to and back down from the Supply Zone. Didn't let it run too much due to the activity around the Dollar. +8%.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,327
  • Aug 15, 2018 6:02am Aug 15, 2018 6:02am
Quoting lemercenaire
Back on... Not run as a Dead Zone play but faded the move up to and back down from the Supply Zone. Didn't let it run too much due to the activity around the Dollar. +8%. {image}


+5 back into the body and closed for me
  • #32,328
  • Aug 15, 2018 6:57am Aug 15, 2018 6:57am
Quoting claudia1
These two really do work well together for me. Confirm entries so often. + 195 in 24 hours on DE30 which is ridiculous. {image} {image}
Now +287 this is surreal. Closed and need a wine.
  • #32,329
  • Aug 15, 2018 8:07am Aug 15, 2018 8:07am
An oil-powered runaway train...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1runawaytrain15thAug18.png Size: 47 KB


Buffers time?
  • #32,330
  • Aug 15, 2018 8:19am Aug 15, 2018 8:19am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Now +287 this is surreal. Closed and need a wine.
This time I was ready...

Stacked on the way down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Inked.DE30.M5asanotherTri-ColourRun15thAug18-crop_LI.jpg Size: 732 KB


Better some than none.
  • #32,331
  • Aug 15, 2018 8:23am Aug 15, 2018 8:23am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} This time I was ready... Stacked on the way down. {image} Better some than none.
Weird times.

Got to be some buyers kick in but where ?
  • #32,332
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:34am Aug 15, 2018 9:34am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Weird times. Got to be some buyers kick in but where ?
When the French come back from the beach
  • #32,333
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:37am Aug 15, 2018 9:37am
You'd have to think that there will be a reaction tomorrow.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30.H4idsaynowfarenough15thAug18.png Size: 47 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: .DE30.DailymajorDemandZone15thAug18.png Size: 54 KB
  • #32,334
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:42am Aug 15, 2018 9:42am
Quoting lemercenaire
You'd have to think that there will be a reaction tomorrow. {image} {image}
If it pushes on through past 12095 overnight, then there may still be some more dropping to go - all the way to 11891?

It could also trundle along this level for a day or two also before it decides what to do and of course, that would be the weekend.
  • #32,335
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:52am Aug 15, 2018 9:52am
There's also an Z-Line around the level 12293, which would give both a rebound target and an entry for the next drop.
  • #32,336
  • Aug 15, 2018 11:14am Aug 15, 2018 11:14am
Quoting lemercenaire
An oil-powered runaway train... {image} Buffers time?
Haven't been watching that very closely (job for T) but tomorrow could be fun.

Lot of news 13.30 both USD and CAD. Nothing marked in red but Philly Fed is usually entertaining.
  • #32,337
  • Aug 15, 2018 11:24am Aug 15, 2018 11:24am
Cable broke 27. Got to test 25 from here in next week or so.
  • #32,338
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:50pm Aug 15, 2018 2:50pm
Hi all,

Been reading this thread with interest after following Lem here from another thread as well as The Other Place. Lem you may or may not remember a very detailed chat regarding me setting up an account with £50k. I took all your advice on-board and will start an account with 10k instead of 50k, and keep the remainder in the background. By the way, I just recently realised you are from Glasgow, which is only 40 miles from where I live (Edinburgh). Small world eh!

I am hoping to be a regular contributor here as I will be starting to trade full-time very shortly. The 2 styles I am hoping to follow are the 8:15am Billy trade and the 1pm DZ trade as favoured by Lem. Both of these seem to work well on most days, but please have a look at the attached chart from yesterday, showing a pretty big spike not long after the trade would have been taken. How would you guys normally deal with such spikes? Would you have a pending order in place to hedge the initial entry in case of spikes? Spikes like that (40-50 pips) could seriously damage an account, especially where 1 pip is 1% of one's account. Your thoughts would be welcome.

I have another couple of questions which are in a way unrelated so will post them separately. Thanks all.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #32,339
  • Aug 15, 2018 3:03pm Aug 15, 2018 3:03pm
Hi Billy,

This query is for yourself if you don't mind (or for anyone else if they understand the method really well). I am aware you aim for 5 pips in the 8:15am setup. I am also aware you normally counter at the other end after -15 pips. Once you have countered, you have locked in a drawdown of 15%. I also know that if the price reverses again, you will place another trade at the opposite end again (where you had placed the initial trade). As soon as you place this third trade, you have potentially locked in a drawdown of 30%. Surely that must be quite difficult to get out of. Or have I understood this incorrectly? To make it simple, lets assume our initial buy signal happened at 1.2700. We bought at this point. Price reversed to 1.2685. We sold twice the amount at this point. Price then reversed again to 1.2700. My understanding is that we buy again at 1.2700. So we have 3 trades in place (initial buy at 1.2700, double sell at 1.2685, single buy again at 1.2700) and current drawdown is 30%. BUT we are fully hedged at this point. How can one go about fixing this? This one day could erase gains from 6 previous days at 5% a day. I look forward to hearing from you. Many thanks.
  • #32,340
  • Aug 15, 2018 3:16pm Aug 15, 2018 3:16pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I see Billy has already answered on this and what I would add on this is that you need to adjust how you are viewing the counter trade technique. To have 12 trades or whatever running all at the same time while trying to unwind the first one is a failure of technique. (Sorry, I am not trying to be rude, that came across a bit blunt, lol). This fail and fail and fail again can happen if the counter is too large, that is that the buy and sell entries are too far apart, so what you get is price continually either just triggering and turning...
----------------------------

Hi Lem,

A very detailed and insightful response. When it comes to countering, one thing I cannot get my head around is this - you have your original trade, then you have your counter trade, and then you have your additional counter trade to unbalance the hedge and to try and turn a profit overall, and you say in your above response that we should not let the second counter trade negative, and close it in positive as soon as spread has been cleared. BUT what if it never clears spread, and as soon as we open it, it turns negative? Do we close our original counter trade instead (hopefully in plus) and leave the second counter trade open? This would put us in a perfect hedge again (albeit at an increased floating loss). I look forward to your response. Keep up the good work here. Many thanks.
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