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The Swamp

  • #21,221
  • Aug 3, 2018 3:48pm Aug 3, 2018 3:48pm
Quoting ManggaDua
{quote} Here we go. Hope kiss the target 1.1553. I'm in with your train at 1.1597. Should I close some and hold 1.1597 intraday?
I don't know..I'm holding some over the weekend. but I may get screwed with a gap up. U have to make that call for yourself.. I think its bearish, and on the edge. with 10 min left.. it still may make a LL
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,222
  • Aug 3, 2018 4:05pm Aug 3, 2018 4:05pm
the lowest weekly NY close since July 2017
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,223
  • Aug 3, 2018 4:12pm Aug 3, 2018 4:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
the lowest weekly NY close since July 2017 {image}
...Nicely done, let it drop....
The Chonchy
  • #21,224
  • Aug 3, 2018 4:21pm Aug 3, 2018 4:21pm
Quoting gatorinla
the lowest weekly NY close since July 2017 {image}
Some indi @Weekly Chart
200 SMA : 1.1370 area.
Bolinger Bands lower band : 1.1330 area.
Fib 50% (Jan 2017 to Feb 2018) : 1.144x area.
  • #21,225
  • Aug 3, 2018 8:33pm Aug 3, 2018 8:33pm
Quoting ManggaDua
{quote} Some indi @Weekly Chart 200 SMA : 1.1370 area. Bolinger Bands lower band : 1.1330 area. Fib 50% (Jan 2017 to Feb 2018) : 1.144x area.
it has that double bottom. Its in a range to me, until it breaks low and L day closes below 1553. if it can do that, 1446 is norm. After that I really don't know. I could say 1163, but i don't know. even 1163 has a normal bounce back to 17xx first. the double bottom on the weekly suggest 1.2xxx. But the Q, month, week, day close. suggest the week bottom will break, to achieve 1446/1163. I keep saying 1553 has to be closed below.

atm u can visually see a LL on the weeks cluster. Candle watchers call that a break/out already. I wanted to wait for a L close below 1553 to confirm.. I already had it as a b/o on the month and week,, days before the candle watchers. They should help my evaluation with more momentum. (More players)

the bottom is not normal.. it hasn't retraced to 1.2xx.. But the closes suggest a further drop. Unless that changes.. 1.2 and 1.1445 have merit. the closes give 1446 the torch. The last piece in the puzzle is 1553 L closed and a LL. The lower closes suggest thats coming.. but its not a done deal yet..


I will close my shorts above 1446... 145x... because 1.2001 has a pong leash at 1446.. I will sacrifice (or be lucky and look smart ) some longs there.. and target 1.2
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,226
  • Aug 3, 2018 9:10pm Aug 3, 2018 9:10pm
A breakout may produce a HS .. still early for the pattern... but the closes and candle indicate it breaks out.. ....
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,227
  • Aug 3, 2018 9:38pm Aug 3, 2018 9:38pm
lots of time.. Its critical to get the LL and the 1553 L close.. If not, it should go up..the closes point to it breaking,, Its not a done deal yet..A HS would be nice.. I have little luck playing them on eu..It don't hurt to look at all scenarios. 1.2 or the HS have merit..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,228
  • Aug 4, 2018 12:23pm Aug 4, 2018 12:23pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week

For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday,July 31, 2018, institutions increased net long positions 12 weeks in a row

Currently net long 28,456 contracts, up 3,185 from the previous week.

77% long exposure vs 23% short exposure , Longs added 5% and shorts dropped 5% from the previous week

Institutions continued to accumulate dollar from low end 94-94.20 range, now on its way to challenge 95.30-95.60 resistance again.
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  • #21,229
  • Aug 4, 2018 3:01pm Aug 4, 2018 3:01pm
Quoting Boulder
How Institutions Position Themselves In Dollar This Week For Dollar, the latest COT as of Tuesday,July 31, 2018, institutions increased net long positions 12 weeks in a row Currently net long 28,456 contracts, up 3,185 from the previous week. 77% long exposure vs 23% short exposure , Longs added 5% and shorts dropped 5% from the previous week Institutions continued to accumulate dollar from low end 94-94.20 range, now on its way to challenge 95.30-95.60 resistance again. {image}
it's not broke, till its broke.. He does look to be challenged. USD looks bullish. Usd looks to challenge the resistance. possibly targeting 97.87 in a b/o or further. Week candle wise like the eu, The usd has made the highest weekly close in the group as the charts indicate. Usd is on the verge of a b/o, or a hell of a rejection.. maybe a little of both. I'm still cautioned by the eu not closing below 1670 on the month. I put all that on the back burner. I anticipate eu 1506 being broken and getting a L close below 1553. But I am cautious and nimble enough to make sure 1553 is close below. If not, I can always buy at that point of rejection. I'm short, so my money is on the break and eu dropping further. I'm not counting any chickens till they are shitting on the porch, and 2 in the pot. Not closing below 1553 is a time for reflection to me. It's a must for usd bulls and eu bears to close eu below 1553 in my book. Black and white, no room for misinterpretation. To me the quarter, month (last week month close), week have made their b/o closes. The day has yet to do it. That bridge is crossed at 1553, along with the following L close. Some R forming at 1598 now. If I can't get a close below 1553 early week. closing below 1598 is a start too, until 1553 cross. once its crossed, the close has to hold it. If not, it will likely bounce some. I;m in the camp that the August high was set already. AMR is over 400 pips.. using what I see on usd, its greater than eu AMR.

Hopefully in 25 hours it gives more clues..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,230
  • Aug 4, 2018 3:18pm Aug 4, 2018 3:18pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it's not broke, till its broke.. ...... to make sure 1553 is close below. If not, I can always buy at that point of rejection. I'm short, so my money is on the break and eu dropping further. I'm not counting any chickens till they are shitting on the porch, and 2 in the pot. Not closing below 1553 is a time for reflection to me. It's a must for usd bulls and eu bears to close eu below 1553 in my book. Black and white, no room for misinterpretation. To me the quarter, month (last week month...
LOL.. Gator ,, I love your comments...I got it... so when EU close below 1553, which means chickens dirty on the porch or in the pot....thanks for the laugh..
  • #21,231
  • Aug 4, 2018 4:20pm Aug 4, 2018 4:20pm
back to usd IHS on week chart .. The week may have closed above the b/o point too. If a true IHS and a true breakout, Usd could target 102.xx. that could put eu back 2017 lows. its summer now, often pa ranges in these months.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,232
  • Aug 4, 2018 4:22pm Aug 4, 2018 4:22pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Last week, institutions cut their long position , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, July 31, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 6,815 contracts to 22,825 contracts,

4,966 long positions were closed, and 1,849 short positions were added . Now Longs total 174,549 contracts vs shorts total 151,724 contracts .

53% long exposure vs 47% short exposure, which 1% decreased in longs and 1% increased in shorts from the previous week

The week Euro started at 1.1683,rallied up to 1.1734 high,started its sell off, moved down to 1.1620 low, rallied up again to 1.1746 high, dropped again
due to escalating trade war threat, and closed at 1.1690 on 7/31/2018

Longs being closed and shorts being added, which indicates they prepared Euro to move lower , Daily supply zone 1.1750-1.1850 once again proved to be tough to break ;

We see after COT report, Euro did move down 3 days in a row and closed at 1.1565 last Friday.

Euro is currently testing daily demand zone 1.1587-1.1506. For bulls, a demand zone must hold, otherwise next daily demand zone 1.1420-1.1320

Long Term Less Bullish, Short Term Bearish .

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #21,233
  • Aug 4, 2018 4:28pm Aug 4, 2018 4:28pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} LOL.. Gator ,, I love your comments...I got it... so when EU close below 1553, which means chickens dirty on the porch or in the pot....thanks for the laugh..
It can be a bloodbath for people who short at 1552, then it misses the close below 1553. I'm giving the best warning I can concerning 1553. Its a big move and it may not run this try. I'm loaded for bear in my trades. I have to acknowledge, I may be wrong. I need a exit plan, in case it blows up in my face. Even with a new -1506 low.. it still needs to close below 1553. or it has room to go to 1700 again.

neither a new low or the -1553 L close has happened atm..I'm trading like it has. So i need to have a out for being wrong. I need to protect my account.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,234
  • Aug 4, 2018 4:32pm Aug 4, 2018 4:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} It can be a bloodbath for people who short at 1552, then it misses the close below 1553. I'm giving the best warning I can concerning 1553. Its a big move and it may not run this try. I'm loaded for bear in my trades. I have to acknowledge, I may be wrong. I to have a have exit plan in case it blows up in my face. even with a new -1506 low.. it still needs to close below 1553. or it has room to go to 1700 again.
Shall I put a big bet on 1500-1510 for a quick bounce?
Never mind.. I should not ask you about this.. this is a personal choice.. have a good day... talk to you later...
  • #21,235
  • Aug 4, 2018 4:44pm Aug 4, 2018 4:44pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Shall I put a big bet on 1500-1510 for a quick bounce? Never mind.. I should not ask you about this.. this is a personal choice.. have a good day... talk to you later...
sure,, why not. just above 1506... limited to 1505 stop loss. maybe hold with a close above +1553 as a rejection bounce..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,236
  • Aug 4, 2018 5:01pm Aug 4, 2018 5:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} sure,, why not. just above 1506... limited to 1505 stop loss. maybe hold with a close above +1553 as a rejection bounce..
Thanks Gator;;
  • #21,237
  • Aug 4, 2018 5:08pm Aug 4, 2018 5:08pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Shall I put a big bet on 1500-1510 for a quick bounce? Never mind.. I should not ask you about this.. this is a personal choice.. have a good day... talk to you later...
the institutions playing this large HS. May be swapping their usd shorts to longs tuesday in droves.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #21,238
  • Aug 5, 2018 10:57am Aug 5, 2018 10:57am
love it;;
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  • #21,239
  • Aug 5, 2018 12:34pm Aug 5, 2018 12:34pm
  •  dot0
  • | Joined Sep 2012 | Status: I pity the fool that fails to laugh | 368 Posts
here's something i wrote. my gear sucks with 30ms delay... use them big earphones, sounds like something on them
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c'mon baby, daddy needs brand new clogs...
  • #21,240
  • Aug 5, 2018 12:53pm Aug 5, 2018 12:53pm
Quoting dot0
here's something i wrote. my gear sucks with 30ms delay... use them big earphones, sounds like something on them https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqOXmN7v9EU
Very good, Doto!!... one day you will buy a lot of spatulas with your music talent...
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