M TTT M

Thank you.

I am looking forward to starting next TS(s). I think I will wait for start of next trading week to do it as it is already late in this week to start a new one so close to a Friday.

Thank you again for sharing your time and knowledge with us!

You could certainly test it out on a demo if you wish.

In fact what I do is have TS Orders running on a demo whilst I'm actively trading the strategy live.

I'm always looking for little subtleties hidden in the testing setups that I can use in a live setup.

There are literally an infinite number of ways to trade these TS setups.

The main idea here though is to start with something and whilst its working and is net profitable, keep it trading, but as I say be dynamic in nature always hunting for any small changes that lead to a higher strike rate (or minimize losses).

The market is a strange beast and we as alert traders need to be aware that the market might simply be feeding us with very good data and we win hand over fist ... we cannot become too complacement and expect the good times to continue to roll on unhindered because there will surely come a time when the market starts spitting out unfavorable data and losses can start to mount.

By keeping in close with our trading statistics we can attempt to minimize the negative impacts whether it means swapping out a certain pair with another or reducing risk per trade whilst we weather the storm.

The trading method might well be an almost set&forget type approach but we still need to be dynamic and aware of what our trade outcomes are trying to tell us ... and then be super timely in responding.

If Risk Per trade is 1%, 1 less loss means +5% gain in Equity ... its a big deal!

Trading the TS Order 1 and having only 3 pairs can lead to interesting results, why?
If you look at my testing results thus far you will notice an average number of losses that typically occurs at the start of the TS setup.

Masterrmind............

In the advanced versions of this strategy there is dynamic feed approach (DFA).

The DFA is a technique that continually looks at slotting into a currently running TS Order# setup with fresh entries as soon as 1 entry has closed.

The slotted pair must fit with the makeup of the TS design.

Basically, it means that a TS cycle never stops, it continually gets fed with a new pair as other trades close out or until the trader or an automated system pauses or stops it.

In manual mode there will be gaps in the 'new' entries because a trader cannot be at the trading terminal 24/5.

In auto mode its very active and very efficient but still needs to be actively managed at times.

Anyway thats well into the future.

Masterrmind............

Yes next week sounds good, no need to open a fresh TS leading into Friday (unless in testing mode).

I still have a handful of trades running currently so I'll need to monitor them at times throughout the trading day.

Although we are trading off an M15 Chart you'll notice that the average trade duration is rather long meaning that its possible for trades to run over the weekend and be subject to gapping issues.

On a live account it might be an option to close out the cycle if it can be done as net positive ... trader choice!

Masterrmind............

Hmmm! I like the idea of the DFA. Very interesting concept. I'd love to hear more about it when the time comes.

Good evening. It is rest time for me. I will be back in the morning.

Have a great rest.

Masterrmind...........

EURAUD

Winning trade

+4.0%

Masterrmind.............

End of Week

2 trades still running

3 pending orders (not yet triggered).

Masterrmind............

If I were to take a TS order 3 right now as the market is (an exercise as the market is obviously closed and such) here is what I would be tempted to take and why.

AUD/NZD + EUR/NZD = EUR/AUD
AUD/CHF + CAD/CHF = AUD/CAD
EUR/CHF + EUR/CAD = CAD/CHF

The daily MML lines agree and so do all but one of the H1 MML.

I looked at the correlations at the H1, D1 and W1. Strongly correlated pairs* are traded such that the risk is in opposite directions. In other words, spread out as much as possible. One of the three TS order 1 has a highly correlated pair spread out as such. Another one is almost completely non-correlated in its members. And the third is a mixed bag but no strong correlations going in the same direction at all at anytime as best I can tell.

You will notice the CAD/CHF pair is short, but it is already low in both the D1 MML and the H1 MML. This is because I want to maintain the long/short balance as shown below.

AUD - Long x 2 + Short x 2
NZD - Long x 1 + Short x 1
EUR - Long x 2 + Short x 2
CHF - Long x 2 + Short x 2
CAD - Long x 2 + Short x 2

So, hypothetically speaking if the market were open right now, I think that would be a tempting set to take and that is why.

Thoughts?

*Strongly correlated means they are either Positive or Negatively correlated at all of the following: The one hour, one day and one week levels. No mixed bags. Using the Oanda Currency Correlation table.

So, basically the edge here is hiding in the smallest unit; the triangulated set of order 1.

Three pairs in the following pattern:

A/B

B/C

A/C

Each one could be short or long. For a triangulated set we need to keep to the pattern of 2 of one and 1 of the other.

Let’s take a few “for instance” scenarios as such:

Scenario One
A/B - Long
B/C - Long
A/C - Short

Scenario Two
A/B - Long
B/C – Short
A/C - Long

Scenario Three
A/B - Short
B/C - Long
A/C - Long

Note: Not a complete list. Just an example. You can also do 2 shorts and one long for another set of these.

Above is an example of how we can position the sets. Now, the other side of this is what the market does. This will be defined as economies (and as a result their currency) getting stronger or weaker.

For each currency or economy (not pair) I would say it can do any of the following:

Get Much Stronger
Get Slightly Stronger
No Change
Get Slightly Weaker
Get Much Weaker

So, let’s take the above scenarios and look at them through several different filters or contexts which the market can throw at us.

Context A: Currency “A” gets stronger. Currency B gets weaker and currency “C” is not changed at all.
A = Stronger
B = Weaker
C = No change

Under that context, here are the possible results of each scenario:

Scenario One
A/B – Long + A stronger & B weaker = Likely win.
B/C – Long + B weaker & C no change = Likely in DD for a while or loss.
A/C – Short + A Stronger & C no change = Likely in DD or loss.

Scenario Two
A/B – Long + A stronger & B weaker = Likely win.
B/C – Short + B weaker and C no change = likely in profit or win.
A/C – Long + A Stronger and C no change = likely in profit or win.

Scenario Three
A/B – Short + A stronger and B weaker = Likely Loss
B/C – Long + B weaker and C no change = likely in DD or loss
A/C – Long + A stronger and C no change = Likely in profit or a win.

OK, now let’s look at another context. Same set of pairs.

Context B: Currency “A” gets stronger. Currency B gets Stronger but not as much as “A” and currency “C” is Just a little bit weaker.
A = Much Stronger
B = Stronger
C = Slightly Weaker

Under that new context, here are the possible results of each scenario:

Scenario One
A/B – Long + A Much stronger & B stronger = Likely stalemate or hovering over a small profit.
B/C – Long + B Stronger & C slightly weaker = Likely win or in profit at least.
A/C – Short + A Much Stronger & C slightly weaker = Likely loss.

Scenario Two
A/B – Long + A Much stronger & B stronger = Likely Stalemate or in small profit.
B/C – Short + B stronger and C slightly weaker = likely loss or in DD
A/C – Long + A Much stronger and C slightly weaker = likely win or at least in profit.

Scenario Three
A/B – Short + A Much stronger and B stronger = Likely stuck in DD or loss.
B/C – Long + B Stronger and C slightly weaker = likely a win or in profit.
A/C – Long + A Much stronger and C slightly weaker = Likely win or in profit.

Let us look at yet a third. Mind you, there are more combinations than those shown here for example only.

Context C: Currency “A” gets very weak. Currency B gets much Stronger and currency “C” is Just a little bit stronger.
A = Very Weak
B = Much Stronger
C = Slightly Stronger

Under that new context, here are the possible results of each scenario:

Scenario One
A/B – Long + A Very Weak & B Much Stronger = Likely loss.
B/C – Long + B Much Stronger & C Slightly Stronger = Likely in profit.
A/C – Short + A Very Weak & C Slightly Stronger = Likely in profit.

Scenario Two
A/B – Long + A Very Weak & B Much Stronger = Likely loss.
B/C – Short + B Much Stronger and C Slightly Stronger = likely in DD.
A/C – Long + A Very Weak and C Slightly Stronger = likely in DD.

Scenario Three
A/B – Short + A Very Weak and B Much Stronger = Likely win.
B/C – Long + B Much Stronger and C Slightly Stronger = likely in profit
A/C – Long + A Very Weak and C Slightly Stronger = Likely in DD.

There are a lot of combinations that the market can throw at us; the above are just a few examples. However, I think the power of this system is in the Triangulated Set of Order 1. Because if you construct this properly, it should have a pretty good chance of getting at least one win under most circumstances (of course, not all).

And if you make a TS order 3 from three well constructed TS order 1s, then your TS order 3 has a better than average chance of getting at least 3 winners, which results in a 6% increase on the account if you measure with the 1% risk per trade metric.

Of course, all of this is hypothetical and can be complete horse manure if the market decides that today is your day to pay dues. But having said that, I believe this has a fair chance of being profitable in the live market.

We will soon find out.

Correlations (myfxbook)

Weekly

Daily

Hourly

Accounting for risk is something I like to read in other traders posts.

Correlation risk
Currency weighting risk
Entry timing risk
Risk per trade
Reward to Risk Ratio
Spread ??

If the market were open now (assume all the setups occur at DO time) when would you time your entries?
What session and why?

Trading range averages and typical market behavior (PA) in and around time of entry is also useful but with multiple TS entries its not always possible to have all factors align due to having to satisfy the triangulated pairings so what we attempt to do is have most pairs aligned.

Its also useful to run a 'planned' TS Order 3 setup on a forward tested demo account (or better still a small live account) to form a basic opinion about how it might run in the live market. At the time of entry on the larger account (real) the market data will be different but at least some form of an expectation of what might occur has been shown.

Once the 'specially' designed TS Order # (1,3,5 etc) hits the market, there should be several cycle completions undertaken and over time the key trading analytics must be analyzed.

Obvious weaknesses in any part of the TS Order # (pairs, market timing, SL Octave ratio choice, etc) should be identified as soon as there is enough data to support a decision.

Under no circumstances should a TS Order# be junked (abandoned) after 1 to 2 scenarios (even if it results in consecutive net losses) because this is NOT enough time to pass judgement!

If the trader can determine that a major error occured in the design phase of the TS Order setup then corrections should be made immediately.

Otherwise run the TS Order # again and compare the 2 attempts of completed cycles.

At the end of the day it is the robust Reward to Risk ratio and the spreading of currency risk that will generally see most TS Order setups weather the worst of storms.

In brief, once the TS Order# has been designed, check it and re-check it and once happy then trade it in the market, make notes, keep a track of the trading data and start with the smallest risk initially because risk can be added on the next cycle of trades (eg Risk per Trade set @ 0.1% then 0.2% and so on up to an assigned maximum risk ... this risk per trade must have a maximum level that you personally are aware of and do not ever exceed).

TS Order 1 (3 pairs) 1% risk per trade = 3% across the account if all trades open in the market.
TS Order 3 (9 pairs) 1% risk per trade = 9% across the account if all trades open in the market.
...
...
TS Order N (3N pairs) ...........................................................................................................................

Masterrmind...........

Perhaps you might like to give it a try in the market come Monday.

Start with relatively low risk per trade especially if using a real account, get the directions and trade setups as per TS plan (label long or short on each chart) and trade it over a minimum of 3 full TS Order 3 setups.

Trades could also be entered via a demo account by other interested traders and comparisons made between pair entry SL and TP over all trades.

When do you plan to enter this setup?

It might also be interesting to see same day, but different session entry times and make comparisons, although to be fair these would need to be run over multiple weeks and months so that any discernible patterns in the data can be validated.

Masterrmind.............

The correlation table that I used is the one from Oanda. I prefer that one because it is more visual and with a quick glance you can see what the correlation story is for a given currency pair vs all other pairs. However, the end result should be the same either way so up to trader's choice.

I think correlation of pairs is important because if you're not careful you could start 2 trades in the same direction which are 85% or more the same trade basically. This would not be advisable as it does not spread the risk around. However, trading those same correlated pairs in opposite directions may be a good idea as it sets things up for at least one of those to win. I think correlated pairs can be very good to use, as long as one pays close attention to the direction of the trades, etc.

I most certainly am planning on running the TS at my next opportunity. However, the question of when to start the set I think is a very important one and I have not yet given much thought to that. My initial thoughts are that I may want to start the TS just before volatility increases. The idea there being that the trades will progress faster shortly after being started rather than range for a long time after starting.

As you mentioned, this will have to be tested in order to fine tune it based on actual result data. But to start with, I think I might start the set just before bed which for me is about 7:30PM to 8:00PM Mountain time (about 1:30 to 2:00AM GMT). This would give me plenty of time after arriving home from my day job to build the TS. After making the TS active in the market, I can go to bed and give the markets time to unfold. Frankfurt and LO take place while I am resting. When I wake up and check sometime after LO, my hopes are that the market has moved a good bit and trades are either closed or well on their way.

Also, I am pondering the pros/cons of starting a TS order 3 all at once or just starting various TS order 1s as the market presents the best opportunities to enter such. Right now, I am leaning towards starting a TS order 1 and then starting subsequent TS order 1s as the setups appear. This would be subject to opportunity (in other words, if I find a TS-order 3 all ready to go and looking good from all angles, then of course I am going for it.) Again, worth testing with a larger sample size.

I also agree that a pair should not be discarded without a fair amount of evidence. Besides, we are Triangulating. To me, in this context, that implies that there will be a loss or two for each TS order 1 which is fine as long as there is also one win that comes along with that.

There were some issues with my calculations.

In any case, I am eyeing a TS-O.1 for tonight.

AUD/NZD + EUR/NZD = EUR/AUD

I will post once I make it active in the market.

TS Order 1 mentioned in the previous post is now active.

Correlation data is plentiful so up to trader choice.

I see nothing wrong with starting with 1 by TS Order 1 and as opportunity arises add into it with another TS Order 1.

Personally, if the account can handle the risk per trade of a TS Order 3 then I'd always be trading this configuration because it distributes the risk over a possible 9 pairs not just 3 and recall that we use pending orders here which means with a TS Order 1 its possible that only 1 trade might be running in the market with 2 dormant orders waiting to be triggered.

However, I'll leave this decision to the trader at this stage and he/she can make up their own mind after several completed setups.
The other option is to NOT apply pending orders on a TS Order 1 but rather set all enties at market.

TS Order market entry timing is an interesting beast.

What you don't want to be doing is planting the TS right in front of 'known' high impact news, that's just asking to be stopped out.

Entries an hour or so either side of a major market session (TO, LO or NY) appear to work well but you'll notice that some pending orders placed at the time do not trigger until market activity builds up and volatility triggers these orders sometimes hours later (except when price races away against trigger levels of course).

I am still working on whether or not its more advantageous to apply all valid entries at market price (no pending orders).
Ofcourse all of the pending trades would need to be replaced with other valid at market trades since the pending setups are NOT valid at the time of setup hence the reason they are pending. Market price needs to move a certain direction before they become valid within the confines of the relevant MML Grid. So its not easy to test since the TS Order 3 makeup would necessarily be different.

I suppose all I could do is forward test multiple TS Order 3's where every pair entry aligns with a valid at market price execution and compare these results side by side with the approach I currently take.

Yet another issue that certainly would arise would be of non triangulated compliance because its difficult to get a TS (only 3 triangulated pairs) that are all in a location that allows all 3 enties to be made at market.

A comprehensive Dashboard that can monitor valid TS setups quickly comes to mind!

Discarding a pair could be performed many different ways including a temporary barring where its NOt used for 1 calendar month after which it gets another attempt.

Main reason behind discarding a pair is typically due to poor performance, no point trading it if it continually leads to loss after loss but other factors should be considered too including if the Sls are seen to be too tight or other trade setup rational.

Masterrmind...........

Trade setups look ok as far as I can tell.

AN pair appears to have a slightly wider stop than 1.5*Octave but maybe its just my view.

Lot sizes were truncated at the 2 decimal point so all good.

And I'm assuming you checked your risk per trade over all 3 trades and the TPs align with a 4 to 1 reward to risk ratio.

If so, all good.

Lets see how they play out but remember that only 3 pairs are currently in action meaning only 1 full TP winner required for the cycle to be net positive.

Assumed max risk over 3 trades is 0.3%.

Assumed max gain over 3 trades is 1.2%.

Masterrmind.............

Hello Mastermind,
Interesting thread and strategy you're talking here.

I like to share my thoughts also with you if i can and you deside if are of some value or not.

This weekend i have gone throught the whole thread and see that your method has a lot of potencial,i like a lot also that one
of your main concerns is how to control risk which is a key factor to maintain a profitable strategy in the long run.

I agree that 4 to 1 risk reward and the different lot sizing to make sure that always risking a fixed % of capital that a trader
has desided to be confortable with are the strong parts of the strategy.
Also your thought proccess and keeping statistics of every TS will help you easy see what are the parts of the strategy that
need to be ''fixed''.

In my opinion this has to do with the statement you made at #436 post:
''Yet another issue that certainly would arise would be of non triangulated compliance because its difficult to get a TS (only 3 triangulated pairs) that are all in a location that allows all 3 enties to be made at market.''

I'm sure that you have already discover from your tests and statistics that when you enter the market some of the setups are way from the MMP lines and some the
orders have to be pending and waiting to be filled,as your last TS with 3 orders waiting,they may be filled in the future which will be good for the strategy,thay may not which is bad for the strategy in a senario that you after 1 win to offset the previous losses or add +4 to already +1 to gain some profits.
Anyway i hope you get my point.

There were some posters here that do not follow the triangulated pairs and just take random pairs which they have been in the upper or lower bands,reporting some good profits,i do not know if they continue to trade that way to offer some information about the tests to the thread.
From your previous tests picking almost random direction for the pairs and mix and match them in multiple ways was profitable so far,that was what intrigued me to read all the way to the end this thread as i was firm believer that no way with this approach you gonna have any positive results.You have proove that this is possible due the strong parts of the strategy.

Now i have started also to put some tests for this strategy and see if i can come up with some good results.

I'm using your last TS3 pairs from post #377
TS1: EURUSD + GBPUSD = EURGBP
TS2: AUDCAD + EURCAD = EURAUD
TS3: GBPCAD + CADCHF = GBPCHF

I'm planning also to pick some random pairs that are at the extreme bands and trade them and see what i can come up with.
I will pay attention to the daily weekly monthly trend so not to make bad trades as sell at support and such.

Thank you for your sharing and time here in the tread.
Keep it up!!

EUR/NZD - Loss



The others still going.

GBPUSD

Loss trade

-1.0%

ps. Added into the Info_Panel-MTTTM indicator some code that shows on the chart if the account is real or demo so trading is more transparent!

Masterrmind.............