The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hello Klaus,

you're right, that was probably something wrong to understand. I had not written that the ECB had no influence on the courses, I had written that, as so often, they had no influence on the Big Player's plan. You have given me but a nice topic as an idea. I will gladly implement that on the weekend.

A successful day and a lot of success.
best regards

Overview in the 4 H chart


Hello dear traders,


I once created an overview in the 4 H chart.



At 1.2 and 3, demand dominated supply, at 4.5 and 6 offer dominated demand. As of point 1, the demand was so great that the price went up without any major problems. After a pullback, the price went up to point 4. Then the offer dominated the course ran back into the demand zone. The blue arrow shows how strongly the price reacted when he came to the demand zone. The course broke through the demand zone but was then slowed down. From point A the course went up again, but was pushed back into our demand zone 2. From point 2, the price went up a bit more than the first time. At the top he was strongly rejected and at point 5 a small equilibrium formed. From there, the course ran up to point B. Again, you can see the strength of the bear, as the price came back into the demand zone. From point B, the price was sharply turned up to point 3. From our demand zone, we went to point 6. There, the price was strongly rejected and pushed back into the demand zone.

Now the big question is what happened next?

So far, the price has once strongly broken through the offer zone (from point 1 to top), but three times the demand zone (from point 4 and 5 down).
It looks like there's a little pullback up now. If, after the pullback, the price breaks through this demand zone again and accepts it from below as resistance, this would be an indication for me that it goes much further down. If, on the other hand, the upper offer zone is severely breached and this zone is accepted as a resistance from above, the bulls can continue to demonstrate their strength.

My basic opinion for this year is bullish, as I have already described in detail in earlier articles. The possibility to go further down is very big. Unfortunately, no one can foresee, otherwise we would all be a big step further.

So we only have the opportunity in the smaller time units to observe the course of the price on the basis of demand and offer while keeping in mind the larger time units.

I wish you much success today.
best regards

Hello Bionik

thank you very much for your excellent analysis and the drawing, it will help me in my learning phase

Hello Klaus,

Thank you for the compliment, you know: learning is like rowing against the tide, as soon as you stop rowing you fall back. And we all have a lot to learn here. There is still a nice sentence that I have read:
The difference between theory and practice is always greater in practice than in theory. You notice that the first time you change from the demo account to a real money account and instead of 0.5 contracts you are dealing with 5 contracts.

I wish you much success today
best regards

Hello Michael,

In what timeframe can we expect the course to accept resistance or support?

Hello Klaus,

The course accepts resistance and support in every unit of time. The key is to pinpoint these resistances and supports. Due to the different candle formations at different brokers I am unable to give a specific recommendation. I like to work with the Day and 4 H Chart to identify the long-term offer market or the demand market. In the medium term with the 1H chart. In the short term, preferably with the 15 min chart. Naturally, the smaller timeframes work as well. You have to find that out for yourself. You can put all timeframes next to each other in the Metatrader and then you start to identify the supply market and demand market in each timeframe. Then you draw your zones. Then just let the course run and you'll see what time units you can handle best.

best regards
Michael

Thank you, Michael, that brings me a bit further.
I wish you a nice weekend.
Klaus

Hello Klaus,
perfectly, sketch your lines for the next few days and predict a possible course, which precedes a small step. I wish you a successful beginning of the week.
best regards

Big Equilibrium in the 4 H Chart?


Dear Traders,

If we look at the 4H chart since mid-January 2018, you can see very nicely that we are in a sideways market. This means that the traders are not sure for 2 months where the journey is going next. I once sketched 3 lines. Within this range is currently running the course. You can also see that beautifully in the monthly chart.



In addition, once I highlighted the strongest momentum from 28 pip color. As soon as the course was outside our 3 lines, he was forced back into the zone. With the point 1 and 2 one sees with which strength this happened.

The sideways range would end for me if there is strong bullish momentum on the top line and pullback takes the top line as resistance or strong bearish momentum on the bottom line and pullback takes the bottom line as resistance. Until then, we are in a kind of uncertain zone that makes trading a little more difficult than we would like. In sideways markets it is very difficult to make long-term statements anyway.

Now you might think that the course could go north again, but I would be careful. The middle line could well push the course down again.
It remains exciting where the course goes next but also boring, as long as he moves in this sideways range. That does not mean that we can not do trades, we should only think about these trades very well.

best regards

Hi Michael,
Thank you very much for the very good analysis. I have already seen that the course does not know which direction to go and I am very careful.
Klaus

two attempts to pass above equilibrium: 02-19 and 03-07 failed...so it's going down , just need time.
on way up in months 10,11 and 12 2017 were with low volume as it is this month so far suggesting exhaustion of buyers...

Hello Klaus,

In some situations it is better to watch from the sidelines how the others lose. Although you can not win anything at the moment, you also learn very well from the mistakes of others without losing anything.

best regards

Hello Trader Waldo,

you can be right, I also had an estimate up to a maximum of 1.179, but this can sometimes change quickly due to special market situations. If a course has failed twice on a resistance line, it can still succeed in the third or fourth attempt. Unfortunately, I can not say anything about volume trading, because I do not pay attention to it and therefore do not know it.

I wish you much success today
best regards

Are women the better traders?




In recent years there have been some articles comparing female traders with male traders. It turned out that women achieved higher returns than their male competitors. There were also several studies that clearly proved this. To begin with, the differences do not seem to be as strong as the press published a few years ago. Nevertheless, there were differences and we will deal with them today.

Basically it should be mentioned that here the exception confirms the rule. There are many women and men who act in the same way in the trade, as determined in the studies. These should not now question the basis of the article. Men in the study were more willing to take risks than women, which meant that men spent more time trades, took more risks, kept fewer rules, and paid significantly more. Women traded with less risk and sold fewer trades. That led to a clear advantage for the women.

Less risk and less trading means fewer fees. But that women are basically the better traders is a myth.

By the way, seniors in the study did as well as the women, showing that the older men get smarter. I believe that both women and men have their strengths in stock market trading, it is about combining these strengths to achieve an advantage for both sexes. Men are more reckless than women, which means men overestimate their skills and underestimate the risk. Women underestimate their skills and overestimate the risk. Both properties can thus be an advantage as well as a disadvantage.

Women tend to retire after periods of loss, while men want to show it to the market faster with revenge trades to get their lost money back.
In normal stock market phases, the woman's strategy is clearly in the advantage. Less trades, less risk and less fees. In strong stock market phases, the strategy of the men is clearly in the advantage.

It is therefore about the respective different strategy of the sexes at the right time to use. In sideways phases, rather a little more restrained and act in the trend phases really accelerate. With markets moving sideways 70% of the time, you have to adapt to the situation.

First tip: In order to analyze the market and to assess the direction of the trend correctly, one should always ask oneself whether the supply currently dominates the demand or the demand dominates the supply.

Second tip: focus on the essentials. Focus on the main currency pairs and become a professional. If you trade too many currency pairs, you can quickly get bogged down.

Third tip: If there is no or very high volatility, they just stay outside. You do not always have to act.

Fourth tip: Listen to your partner from time to time, no matter if male or female.

Conclusion: It does not matter if you are a woman or a man, if you internalize the good qualities of the other sex, it can lead to a very profitable profit situation.

best regards

Hello Michael, a very interesting article, thanks.

[quote=skipper13;10863188]Hello Michael, a very interesting article, thanks.[/


Hello Klaus,
Thanks, I hope you learn these important traits of the female traders over time. They are an important foundation for success.
Beautiful evening

Changing the view sometimes changes the perspective


Dear Traders,

"The water of a river does not think about how it flows, it follows the riverbed! In order to change the flow of water, the river bed must first change.



If we look at a chart image from the beginning of 2018 in the 2H chart, we'll see it all mixed up, even though I've just inserted a ZigZag and the candles with strong momentum.



We divide the bulls and the bears once, although there is still a bit of chaos. But the overview is already better.



Here we only see the candles with strong momentum. The overview is more interesting.



The pure Zigzag divided.

This is just one example to change the overview. You can try this with all indicators in all time units even to find out if this view helps you. Sometimes you can not see the forest for the trees. Focus on the essentials. So, just divide the bulls and the bears and look at the chart. Sometimes, completely new perspectives open up.

I wish you a nice evening
best regards

How daily our senses are confused


Dear Traders,


we have plotted all our lines, supports, resistance, Fibonacci or other aids and located a possible entryway. Now we look at the chart image and watch the current candle. Already here we commit the first mistake. The movement of the candles is often in inverse proportion to the actual later course.
This is often because a down-going candle is stopped by the bullish buyers in their downward movement and then finally pushed upwards. The question is: is it a pullback or a trend reversal?

If it's a pullback, how far is it going? When does a pullback turn into a trend? In principle, we have a 50% chance of being right. With the right money management, this opportunity will be enough, unless we realize our profits too early and rise too late in loss phases. Our course now comes to a specific point that we have previously set. Now we are watching the price trend. And that's exactly where most mistakes happen. It is quite clear that a pullback arises because suddenly there are sellers in a buyer's market or suddenly there are buyers in a sellers' market. The appearance of these opposite buyers or sellers is always different and can not be generalized.

And that's exactly where our senses deceive us. The reason for this lies in our belief in where the course should go next. If the movement of the candle supports our conviction we go into the trade. That goes awry in most cases. In the case of professionals, this case occurs less often because you have a lot of experience and have seen this process a few hundred times. By this we realize, it is not enough to see a chart image, it is much more important to see how it is created. Therefore, especially beginners should deal with the strategy tester at the weekend, because there you can watch the running candles well to learn.

Now let's look at a classic example:



The track has gone up with strong momentum, has made a short pullback and is still on the upside. Now everyone will say you should not buy on top. Where is in the chart above and where is below? Which price is expensive which price is cheap?



3 times the course has tried to get through the upper zone, three times he has failed. The question is he trying a fourth time or is he failing?



The price has gone down. Where is the journey going next? The momentum down is stronger.



The course has broken the upper resistance. That would be a good reason that the price could go up further?



The question is only when and if he ever goes further up.



A weak share price, rather a big equilibrium in the 4 H chart. He seems to come to a resistance, so maybe down.



Well convincing does not look that way.



Maybe further up



The pullback is over, now the resistance line would have to be broken upwards.



Well did not work out, maybe I should give the bear a chance now. Unfortunately, this trade would have gone awry.

Worse is the whole thing if you still watching the running candles. Therefore, try to hide the current candle before entering the trade. Whether you generate better entrances you will see if you try it. Maybe then your senses will not be so confused and you will have more success. Effectively you can judge only after a detailed documentation.

When trading applies the motto: Who has made a mistake and not corrected, commits a second.

Of course, my tip could bring you no value, but it could also bring a small breakthrough. No matter how it ends, whoever stops improving has stopped being good.

I wish you a lot of success,
best regards

Hi Michael,
I have to worry about her last article and read it several times, THANKS

Hello skipper,

I am very sorry, I am a bit stressed because I have the craftsmen in the house and my trading center is completely changed and rebuilt. Unfortunately I can not translate the blog as it should be. If you have any questions, I'm happy to help.

best regards